How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Macgregor clearly has cognitive issues.  Which, before political correctness kicked in, we would just say "he's batpoop crazy".  He's no different than the nutjobs that predict the end of the world down to a specific hour on a specific day of the year.

Except that not many in the Bat**** Brigade have planned a NATO intervention, or commanded large units in combat.

It kinda looks like "the hidebound army brass" were right on the money when they passed him over for promotion due to his narcissism. Although, it could be that passing over was the trigger that led to his long step off the short plank he was standing on. Either way, IC 1st/4th Twitter Account is probably the safest place for him these days.

Edited July 3, 2023 by JonS

[The_MonkeyKing]

24 minutes ago, AlexUK said:

Horrific. Seems like a slaughter. 

Satellite imagery to find the helicopter bases, storm shadow the individual helicopters while they are on the ground? 

Russia can create powerful concentrations of anti-air and electronic warfare capabilities.

I am sure the helo bases are some of the strongest AA concentrations there are. Making it unfeasible or not worth it for the Ukrainians to hit them with their few long-range precision assets. 

Also, KA-52 has the range to operate from internationally recognized Russia, given the restrictions imposed on Ukrainian weapons use they would become practically untouchable. So if they would feel threatened they would just start operating from Russia like most of the air force is already doing

Edited July 3, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing
typo

[JonS]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Around 100 hits in this compilation

How many duplicates?

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, JonS said:

How many duplicates?

Are you insinuating there might be some disinformation?  How dare you!

[Carolus]

34 minutes ago, AlexUK said:

Horrific. Seems like a slaughter. 

Satellite imagery to find the helicopter bases, storm shadow the individual helicopters while they are on the ground? 
 

As per past discussions on this thread, getting them on the ground seems to be the only option due to the lack of ground-based AD for his range and manner of deployment, and the lack of air-to-air assets in Ukraine.

But Storm Shadow would be far too expensive as a weapon, unless it targets the ATGM or fuel depot of the helicopters (which is an indirect way of dealing with them).

I rather think some of the Ukrainian long-range drones could be deployed here, if they are available in numbers big enough to overwhelm Russian AA. 

Making a KA-52 unsafe or unable to operate would not take 100s of lbs of explosives, something like an RPG warhead would be enough.

[Bulletpoint]

5 hours ago, billbindc said:

Guys, I have some bad news. It seems that the entire Ukrainian army is kaput.

 

Every time I read someone writing in all caps "HERE'S WHAT THE MEDIA WILL NOT TELL YOU" it goes into my mental spam filter and I just ignore it. Same with comments that end with "crying with laughter" emojis.

[Tenses]

The only way to effectively deal with helicopter threat are AMRAAMs on western supplied fighters. NATO strategy to give up ground based AA and instead go for full air dominance is in fact clearly shown as a good one in this conflict. There is no other reliable way to shoot down enemy air assets other than with your own airpower. At least this was a case for last 100 years of air warfare history. Two major problems with any other approach is that you cannot catch up enemy plane with anything other than your own(interception) and that enemy air is always having energy adventage over ground based assets(range).

Ground based AA should be considered as a last resort, which is sometimes enough like in a previous chapters of this war, when Ukraine was on defence and enemy air had to conduct dangerous missions inside AD sphere due to identification problems. As now UA is on the attack, identification is easy and enemy is right at the frontline so no danger present even for relatively easy to target(slow) helicopters. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

20 minutes ago, JonS said:

How many duplicates?

Sure there are some duplicates and I saw a couple of clear misses. Also maybe even most are past mine kills that are being totaled with the ka-52.

Still, the volume says a lot. One month of action rivals the kills of TB-2 for the whole duration of the whole war: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/defending-ukraine-listing-russian-army.html or the kills of ZALA Lancet https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/11/hit-or-miss-russian-loitering-munition.html

with one confirmed ka-52 kill from the Ukrainians. And that was on the ground.

[AlexUK]

30 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Storm Shadow would be far too expensive as a weapon

This I’m struggling with. How much is a storm shadow? How much is each Ka52 destroying in terms of equipment and lives? Or is it not a question of cost but availability of Storm Shadow?

 

i don’t know why that video (and the one of the Ukrainians in the minefield - I have had nightmares about that one) has affected me so much. It is such a terrible waste of lives. Why hasn’t Russian civilian population started large scale protests - how many mothers without sons anymore? Just horrific. I can’t rationalise any of this. 
 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

42 minutes ago, Carolus said:

As per past discussions on this thread, getting them on the ground seems to be the only option due to the lack of ground-based AD for his range and manner of deployment, and the lack of air-to-air assets in Ukraine.

But Storm Shadow would be far too expensive as a weapon, unless it targets the ATGM or fuel depot of the helicopters (which is an indirect way of dealing with them).

I rather think some of the Ukrainian long-range drones could be deployed here, if they are available in numbers big enough to overwhelm Russian AA. 

Making a KA-52 unsafe or unable to operate would not take 100s of lbs of explosives, something like an RPG warhead would be enough.

I would replace the word "expensive" with the word "valuable". And that value comes from scarcity. 

 

It is not that expensive when we compare it to other war materials:

155mm round currently costs around 10 000e.
According to Esa Rautalinko, CEO of Patria, the largest Finnish arms manufacturer. In an interview about a month ago.

Storm Shadow missile cost from one million to three million
depending on the time, contract, and source.

Is one Storm Shadow worth 100-300 pieces of 155mm rounds? I would say it is.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Every time I read someone writing in all caps "HERE'S WHAT THE MEDIA WILL NOT TELL YOU" it goes into my mental spam filter and I just ignore it. Same with comments that end with "crying with laughter" emojis.

The latter even more than the former. Especially several in a row... Used by every idiot on the web for discussions on Facebook or Twitter when they know they can't compete in said discussion. Usually "completing" a comment like "Yeah, keep on believing what they tell you"...

[Butschi]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

Even more than that the European companies that make the machines must be persuaded to wipe and fry the controllers for those machine tools.

How do you propose to do that?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

12 hours ago, poesel said:

Germany and Poland quarrel about a repair Hub for Leopards in Poland. A letter of intent exists for 2 months now, but political issues have so far stopped the project (text in German).

On the Polish internet it is described as a price dispute. According to our sites, the German side thinks our prices are too high

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

Making a KA-52 unsafe or unable to operate would not take 100s of lbs of explosives, something like an RPG warhead would be enough.

A cluster warhead would be the ideal weapon for this

[Butschi]

12 hours ago, poesel said:

Germany and Poland quarrel about a repair Hub for Leopards in Poland. A letter of intent exists for 2 months now, but political issues have so far stopped the project (text in German).

Next Monday is a meeting between both ministers of defense. Seems to be the last chance to fix the issue before the NATO summit.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/berlin-und-warschau-streiten-ueber-leopard-werkstatt-a-8a3e52c0-6772-470b-8008-0c1390fb23a7

 

According to the article, Germany agreed to pay for the cost of repairing tanks. German companied are usually not shy about charging extra high prices from the state. But even the German companies involved say what the Polish company in the joint venture wants to charge is ridiculous. They say the usual price for taking a first look at what needs to be repaired is something like 12,000 €. The Polish company wants 100,000 €.

I feel like a little Poland basing would be in order but what would be the point...

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, AlexUK said:

This I’m struggling with. How much is a storm shadow? How much is each Ka52 destroying in terms of equipment and lives? Or is it not a question of cost but availability of Storm Shadow?

Ah, expensive was probably the wrong word in this context. And your point about what damages could be prevented is a good one. 

But in my mind, Storm Shadow is a weapon that has basically strategic value for Ukraine. It is not used to knock out single vehicles, but command posts, logistical hubs and other such targets which have strategic or operational value for the RA. 

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I would replace the word "expensive" with the word "valuable". And that value comes from scarcity. 

 

It is not that expensive when we compare it to other war materials:

155mm round currently costs around 10 000e.
According to Esa Rautalinko, CEO of Patria, the largest Finnish arms manufacturer. In an interview about a month ago.

Storm Shadow missile cost from one million to three million
depending on the time, contract, and source.

Is one Storm Shadow worth 100-300 pieces of 155mm rounds? I would say it is.

Thank you for your elaboration, that hits the nail on the head.

It is scarcity, not monetary worth, that I meant to express. Specially since the RA is dispersing the helicopters o. the airfield.

11 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

A cluster warhead would be the ideal weapon for this

Isn't there an ATACMS warhead which is filled with cluster submunitions?

Another argument for their usefulness to Ukraine and why they should be provided.

Storm Shadow, JDAM, GLSDB (which are supposed to arrive this year) or Taurus (if Germany decides to supply them) are all warheads which provide single focused effect or general HE.

GMLRS would be suitable in terms of effect (tungsten pellets) and numbers, but don't have the necessary range.

[DesertFox]

7 hours ago, billbindc said:

Guys, I have some bad news. It seems that the entire Ukrainian army is kaput.

 

Let me answer with McAuliffe: NUTS!

[TheVulture]

On the subject of Ka-52 helicopters, one more reported down: https://t.me/lachentyt/31327

Quote

In the direction of Berdyansk, Ukrainian fighters of the 309th Marine Brigade shot down a Russian Ka-52 helicopter.

 

[DesertFox]

Intense footage, the 3rd Assault brigade storms Russian positions and takes prisoners. A captured Russian soldier wants to hide and detonate a grenade near Ukrainian soldiers who just captured him. But Ukrainians find out just in time.. 

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1675815854494154753?s=20

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

14 minutes ago, Butschi said:

But even the German companies involved say what the Polish company in the joint venture wants to charge is ridiculous. They say the usual price for taking a first look at what needs to be repaired is something like 12,000 €. The Polish company wants 100,000 €.

I feel like a little Poland basing would be in order but what would be the point...

I have no idea what is the Polish explanation for the discrepancy in pricing, just that it exists. Maybe I will learn something more.

[Butschi]

6 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I have no idea what is the Polish explanation for the discrepancy in pricing, just that it exists. Maybe I will learn something more.

To be fair, the article is a bit confusing. It says that PZG, the Polish company involved, was charging these fantasy prices. In the next paragraph it goes on saying that this is PiS trying to score for the upcoming election. However it neglects to say how exactly that works.

[DesertFox]

37 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I feel like a little Poland basing would be in order but what would be the point...

I guess no point unless we know the whole story. It is my understanding that PGZ will be doing all the work at the polish hub. A classic service provider so to speak, because due to whatever reason KMW and RM don´t want to do it themselves with their personel at their facilities. The discrepancy in pricing is tenfold, so there has to be a factor which is unknown to us. What I find puzzling is, that PGZ also is expected to give some kind of guarantee. Usually the company formed by the joint venture should take that guarantee and not PGZ alone. However, as mentioned, I guess not all relevant information is published (yet).

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Around 100 hits in this compilation

Assuming that these are legit and not recycled strikes with a Ka-52 gun camera aesthetic overlayed - this would average out to about 3-4 strikes per day along an +800 km frontage.  

[Kraft]

Thermal sights only on company level, on a western supplied unit that is very disappointing. That night combat would've been a slaughter of StormZ units had each in the assault group one, but alas.

On 7/1/2023 at 6:13 PM, akd said:

Video from a small unit leader in the 47th Mech Bde over two days of assault operations:

Edited July 3, 2023 by Kraft

[Seedorf81]

According to CNN the US airdefense is struggling a bit.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/02/politics/army-air-defense-russia-ukraine-china/index.html

 

If true, not very good news for Ukraine