How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, so let me get this straight... Prig launched an armed coup, he obviously has the Kremlin by the balls, stops at the gates of Moscow because he supposedly got nervous, he cuts a deal, gets charges dropped, and is now going into exile.  A day later the main rhetorical target of the armed insurrection is now being "investigated" by the same part of the Russian government that did not tell Putin there was an armed insurrection in the works.

So I guess the Russian government was telling the truth!  The coup failed and there's nothing more to see here.  Glad it turns out to be that simple

Seriously, one of the things I said would indicate Prig wasn't a tool for a coup, not the coup itself, is changes in personnel that (up to now) Putin has refused to replace due to their loyalty to him.

If Shoigu goes, I'm confident that alone shows that there was a successful coup.  But I'm also sure it won't be the only major change we will see in the next few days.

Steve

If it turns out to be a solid report then yes, somebody got what the really wanted out of Putin. Oh...and being a do or die loyalist in Putin's inner circle just lost its iron clad guarantees. 

[billbindc]

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup. Also her timing doesn't exactly adds up, Wagner made serious, irreversible road rodeo much earlier than Putin's adress, which was in late morning next day, so it is hard to tell who surprised whom off-guard. As much as I like T. Stanovaya, she made wrong assessments in the past, i.e. not believing Putin will ever be able to formally annex foreign territory. This seems to be the case with all, even best "kremlinologists" after 2022- they all work under auspices of rational, relatively balanced innerworks of state machine, without taking into accounts misuderstandings, emotions, grudges, fears etc. They also probably lost some of their contacts at Kremlin.

 

Another interesting issue, which is what to do with regular units that sided or were neutral to Prig. Here enumeration of some of them (perhaps was posted before, if so sorry, I stillneed to catch on last six pages ) :

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1673088948019638274

 

There is also a very strong tendency to say "it's just a mafia state and these guys are all goons flailing about anyway". That's often true. But it isn't always true and it limits their analytical understanding.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Another interesting issue, which is what to do with regular units that sided or were neutral to Prig. Here enumeration of some of them (perhaps was posted before, if so sorry, I stillneed to catch on last six pages ) :

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1673088948019638274

Nice!  I'm reposting the list here so we have a record of it:

Quote

1. Military Unit 11659: - Command of the 22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade (RosGvardia) - Commandant Company - 2nd Special Communications Detachment

2. 411th Detachment of the 22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade - Location: Stepnoy Village, Rostov-on-Don

3. 108th Bataysk GRU Spetsnaz Detachment - Comprising of the entire detachment and all of their Typhoon military vehicles

4. Unit 14254: 387th Object "C" of the 12th Main Defense Ministry Directorate (nuclear) - Location: Military Town of Voronezh-45 - Surrendered without any resistance

5. Bugaevka Checkpoint - Operated by Border Guards in Voronezh

6. Entire FSB Federal Border Service - Part of the Regional Command Center for Voronezh region of the Central Military District

7. FSB Border Service at Chertkovo Customs & Border Checkpoint

8. Unit 7437 - RosGvardia Spetsnaz Motorized Regiment

9. Unit 3677 - RosGvardia Separate Battalion in Voronezh 10. Unit 63453 - Separate Tank Brigade in Boguchar, Voronezh (MoD)

10. Unit 63453 - Separate Tank Brigade in Boguchar, Voronezh (MoD)

Basically, everywhere Wagner went and met with armed regime units, they switched sides or at least did nothing to impede Wagner's progress.  So why again was Prig supposedly nervous about keeping things going?

What is more interesting is the units we know about belong to all three of the armed organizations within Russia:

1. Rosgvardia (National Guard)
2. Rosgvardia (National Guard)
3. GRU Spetsnaz (MoD)
4. Unit of nuclear forces (MoD)
5. Border Guards (FSB)
6. Border Guards (FSB)
7. Border Guards (FSB)
8. Rosgvardia (National Guard)
9. Rosgvardia (National Guard)
10. Separate Tank Brigade(MoD)

To me this underscores how easily Russian forces, even armed ones, yield to the perception of authority when they are caught by surprise.  By default they should be shooting back, but this was not the case.

The other thing it shows is that Wagner's reputation is well known an likely a very strong reason for units switching sides or at least standing down.  "If Wagner is doing something, we best not get in their way".

It probably also shows how demoralized Russian armed forces are.  I don't think such a thing would happen pre 2022.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There is also a very strong tendency to say "it's just a mafia state and these guys are all goons flailing about anyway". That's often true. But it isn't always true and it limits their analytical understanding.

Honestly, I think most are not really interested in going down all the rabbit holes.  Russia is a rabbit warren metropolis and it tends to cause a lot of broken ankles and, at a minimum, headaches.  Sources within Russia probably pretend to know way more than they in fact know, which further complicates things on top of deliberate disinformation.  It seems to be easier to go with the flow.  Likely to be wrong, but so is everybody else.  Plenty of company to provide cover for failure.

Steve

[kevinkin]

BBC:

After a weekend of mayhem, I'm beginning to understand why Russia's national symbol is the double-headed eagle: two heads staring in opposite directions.

Ha

Reporting on the Wagner uprising, the presenter played an extract from an old Putin interview.

"Are you able to forgive?"

"Yes. But not everything."

"What can't you forgive?"

"Treachery."

I wonder if Yevgeny Prigozhin was watching.

Prig's apparent bailout and retirement will be closely watched and might be informative. 

[akd]

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What is more interesting is the units we know about belong to all three of the armed organizations within Russia:

1. Rosgvardia (National Guard)
2. Rosgvardia (National Guard)
3. GRU Spetsnaz (MoD)
4. Unit of nuclear forces (MoD)
5. Border Guards (FSB)
6. Border Guards (FSB)
7. Border Guards (FSB)
8. Rosgvardia (National Guard)
9. Rosgvardia (National Guard)

Might have missed it due to formatting and his exclusion of complete unit title, but he also included the 1st Separate Tank Brigade, 20th Guards CAA, WMD (в/ч 63453) in his list.

[dan/california]

I think the dichotomy at the very heart of the Russian state is about to bite Putin in a very sensitive place. All power flows from the barrel of a gun, or a monopoly of force if you want to be high minded about it. Yet Russia treats it owns soldiers worse than terribly. The point where that goes from not mattering at all, to mattering a very great deal has gotten much closer this weekend.

[dan/california]

 

[Vet 0369]

7 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

 

Hmmm, now might be the optimum time for the “restless” break-away prone Republics to start looking to cause some “trouble.”

[chuckdyke]

Follow the money as usual. To run his mercenaries money is the lubrication to keep this machine going. 

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

If it turns out to be a solid report then yes, somebody got what the really wanted out of Putin. Oh...and being a do or die loyalist in Putin's inner circle just lost its iron clad guarantees. 

Here is a question - who is actually in charge of Russia right now?  We are seeing a lot of bits and pieces poke through (and I am with Steve on the idea that this whole affair likely is not over), but all they tell me is that no one person seems to be in control of a notoriously tightly controlled autocracy.  

Putin does not seem in control as he called for “off with their heads” and now it looks like gentle retirement and re-rolling.  I mean does Prig still get his government pension benefits too?  Rumours of Shoigu under FSB investigation (ordered by who?), Gerasimov is a ghost.  ISW is reporting some Ultras are openly calling for revolution and have somehow avoided trips out windows. The RA is still going through the motions but how long does that last?

I can’t shake the feeling like the wheel of state in Russia right now is spinning without any hands on it.

Edited June 26, 2023 by The_Capt

[DesertFox]

11 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Follow the money as usual. To run his mercenaries money is the lubrication to keep this machine going. 

 

Yep. It ain´t over yet. 2nd act of the play is soon to begin...

[The_Capt]

As for the theory that Prig backed down because “he didn’t think he could win”.  Other than a few aircraft dumb enough to follow orders (and die) the RA did pretty much sweet-FA as a rogue armed rebellion took control of its freakin theatre HQ in a war and pretty much it’s entire LOC interior line.  I have serious doubts as to the strength of available forces to protect Moscow and would need to see some actual numbers and dispositions.  For example they were parking dump trucks and digging holes but were there any mines laid?  Defensive positions constructed?  What indirect fire was available for the defence of Moscow…cause Wagner sure had some.

”Russian sources claimed that the three other Wagner columns that moved towards Moscow had 375, 100, and 212 pieces of equipment respectively, the majority of which were non-armored trucks, cars, and buses.[13] Russian milbloggers claimed on June 24 that the columns moving towards Moscow were comprised of 4,000 personnel with 40 to 50 pieces of equipment, including MRAPs, T-90M main battle tanks, BMP infantry fighting vehicles, Pantsir air defense systems, and Grad MLRS systems.[14] CNN reported on June 24 that US and Western intelligence officials observed Wagner amassing equipment and ammunition for the rebellion for several weeks, indicating that the columns likely comprised Wagner‘s greatest available strength.”

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25-2023

So it remains unclear to me that Prig backed down due to MoD or Putin hard power.  The guy made the longest Russian military advance of this entire war.  He did not face RA resistance while he did it, nor did he face resistance from the people.  It does not look like he back down because he figured that he could not take Moscow; it looks more like he backed down because he was dangerously close to actually doing it. 

[Offshoot]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So it remains unclear to me that Prig backed down due to MoD or Putin hard power.  The guy made the longest Russian military advance of this entire war.  He did not face RA resistance while he did it, nor did he face resistance from the people.  It does not look like he back down because he figured that he could not take Moscow; it looks more like he backed down because he was dangerously close to actually doing it. 

Another take on why Prigozhin stopped, by Vlad Vexler - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5680U8ZQVMk

He says that Prigozhin stopped because he didn't get enough buy-in from the regular army and the elites and then, because of that, bottled it because going further might result in his eventual obliteration.

Prigozhin may well have been able to take Moscow but without the buy-in needed to establish a (temporary) replacement administration it wasn't necessarily going to last and could have become very bloody.

 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Here is a question - who is actually in charge of Russia right now?  We are seeing a lot of bits and pieces poke through (and I am with Steve on the idea that this whole affair likely is not over), but all they tell me is that no one person seems to be in control of a notoriously tightly controlled autocracy.  

Putin does not seem in control as he called for “off with their heads” and now it looks like gentle retirement and re-rolling.  I mean does Prig still get his government pension benefits too.  Rumours of Shoigu under FSB investigation (ordered by who?), Gerasimov is a ghost.  ISW is reporting some Ultras are openly calling for revolution and have somehow avoided trips out windows. The RA is still going through the motions but how long does that last?

I can’t shake the feeling like the wheel of state in Russia right now is spinning without any hands on it.

Power in Russia right now is being negotiated which is really hasn't been since Putin was able to successfully force through the seizure of Crimea. You will know that things have reached some sort of temporary equilibrium when regime figures begin to start making public statements and appearances. That there have been virtually none since the visible end of the coup tells you that that temporary equilibrium remains elusive. Or...Putin is attempting to drag out the inevitable as is his won't and so isn't providing the deliverables (Shoigu out, Dyumin in at MoD, etc) he promised. 

Just waiting it out at this point. 

Edited June 26, 2023 by billbindc

[billbindc]

23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

As for the theory that Prig backed down because “he didn’t think he could win”.  Other than a few aircraft dumb enough to follow orders (and die) the RA did pretty much sweet-FA as a rogue armed rebellion took control of its freakin theatre HQ in a war and pretty much it’s entire LOC interior line.  I have serious doubts as to the strength of available forces to protect Moscow and would need to see some actual numbers and dispositions.  For example they were parking dump trucks and digging holes but were there any mines laid?  Defensive positions constructed?  What indirect fire was available for the defence of Moscow…cause Wagner sure had some.

”Russian sources claimed that the three other Wagner columns that moved towards Moscow had 375, 100, and 212 pieces of equipment respectively, the majority of which were non-armored trucks, cars, and buses.[13] Russian milbloggers claimed on June 24 that the columns moving towards Moscow were comprised of 4,000 personnel with 40 to 50 pieces of equipment, including MRAPs, T-90M main battle tanks, BMP infantry fighting vehicles, Pantsir air defense systems, and Grad MLRS systems.[14] CNN reported on June 24 that US and Western intelligence officials observed Wagner amassing equipment and ammunition for the rebellion for several weeks, indicating that the columns likely comprised Wagner‘s greatest available strength.”

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25-2023

So it remains unclear to me that Prig backed down due to MoD or Putin hard power.  The guy made the longest Russian military advance of this entire war.  He did not face RA resistance while he did it, nor did he face resistance from the people.  It does not look like he back down because he figured that he could not take Moscow; it looks more like he backed down because he was dangerously close to actually doing it. 

Spot on. 

It's been amusing to watch some of the experts talking about the mismatch in forces between Prigozhin and the MoD in quantitative terms....which is exactly the mistake they made in regard to the invasion of Ukraine. The reality is that as long as nobody was willing to fight him, whatever forces Prigozhin had on hand were...at least at first...going to be enough. I am solidly in the camp that this was neither a coup or a mutiny. It was a forced rearrangement of the terms on which the state operated. It went farther than anyone expected (Utkin probably has some agency there) and turned into a potentially centrifugal disaster so the parties agreed to initial terms. Now...it looks like we are in the phase where we'll see if everyone abides by the terms.  

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

Follow the money as usual. To run his mercenaries money is the lubrication to keep this machine going. 

 

Thanks.  And looking at the comments for this Tweet I have now learned that the Pentagon's "accounting error" was just cover for paying Prig to stage a coup.  I read it on the Internet, therefore it must be true

Anyway, of course Wagner is going to collapse.  This is a point that's been made over and over again when people talk about Prig challenging Putin with Wagner.  As soon as Putin shuts the tap off for money, access to weapons/ammo, or even the legal right to exist, Wagner effectively ceases to exist.  The end of Wagner was inevitable, Prig new it, so he acted before it was too late.  I'm sure of all that.  But I think he was egged/cheered on by people who used his pending doom to their advantage.

Steve

[Vic4]

Speaking of money, mafia state players and Putin's current instability: 

Any thoughts on some entity/faction within Russia casting a keen eye on Putin's personal fortune? Rumored to be in the $3-400 billion range I believe.

Do you think they're going to let him keep it, er.. along with his head?  

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

It does not look like he back down because he figured that he could not take Moscow; it looks more like he backed down because he was dangerously close to actually doing it. 

I think Prigozhin "backed down" because he got what he wanted: to keep Wagner, which was otherwise going to be subsumed into the MoD.

[Battlefront.com]

59 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Another take on why Prigozhin stopped, by Vlad Vexler - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5680U8ZQVMk

He says that Prigozhin stopped because he didn't get enough buy-in from the regular army and the elites and then, because of that, bottled it because going further might result in his eventual obliteration.

Prigozhin may well have been able to take Moscow but without the buy-in needed to establish a (temporary) replacement administration it wasn't necessarily going to last and could have become very bloody.

This is the common refrain from many, many, many commentators out there be they academics, OSINT guys, or people with applicable credentials (I saw Petraeus repeating this line yesterday).  Mainstream media is running with it as well, mostly because they rely on the aforementioned experts to provide them with things to say.

Where are these experts getting their information from to support this?  Peskov?  Because so far it's that and really bad reasoning.

All stories likely have some truth.  The truth in this case is that Prig gave up the advance because he didn't have support.  But NOT because his forces hadn't won the day, but because they HAD won the day.  His handlers in Moscow did not support him toppling the regime because that was never their intention.  So Prig was instructed to stand down and no doubt was informed what would happen if he didn't.  Not some empty treason threat from Putin, but a real threat by real people who could really carry it out.

Where things stand RIGHT Now is unclear.  Moscow is still under emergency lockdown, Wagner is not disbanded.  All the major public facing actors are largely silent (Putin allegedly called some other nations to say everything was fine).  This means things are (as Billindc  stated) still in flux.

Ask yourselves... what is the VERY first thing that happens when a coup is ended?  The victor gets on all forms of media and crows about it.  Strong words are used to instill confidence that stability is reestablished and life will get back to normal.  If anything, there's an overkill of communications from locations that clearly establish it's not BS.

The most notable absence is Shoigu and Gerasimov.  Their removal was the stated goal of Wagner's revolt, so if they won... why aren't they out there rubbing it in Prig's face?  Because they can't since their fate is either decided against them or still being discussed.

Steve

[dan/california]

The Poles would be In Minsk in 3 days, The Finns in Moscow in a week. The would be shaking hands in front of the Winter Palace in St Petersburg in 24 hours, scratch that TWELVE hours. Literally, absolutely, nothing is holding Russia together except nukes. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I think Prigozhin "backed down" because he got what he wanted: to keep Wagner, which was otherwise going to be subsumed into the MoD.

Yeah, except that is wrong.  The announced deal effectively dissolves Wagner as we know it.  Some are exiled to Belarus, some will be absorbed by the MoD, and the rest will be prevented from doing either.

Wagner will likely live on in a different way, but it absolutely won't be what Prig was trying to achieve which was Wagner becoming a co-equal or superior to the MoD.

No, this is nonense.  Prig in no way came away with anything that he was after.  At least as far as anybody knows.

Steve

[dan/california]

Do we have any credible information about who was on this plane?

 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the common refrain from many, many, many commentators out there be they academics, OSINT guys, or people with applicable credentials (I saw Petraeus repeating this line yesterday).  Mainstream media is running with it as well, mostly because they rely on the aforementioned experts to provide them with things to say.

Where are these experts getting their information from to support this?  Peskov?  Because so far it's that and really bad reasoning.

All stories likely have some truth.  The truth in this case is that Prig gave up the advance because he didn't have support.  But NOT because his forces hadn't won the day, but because they HAD won the day.  His handlers in Moscow did not support him toppling the regime because that was never their intention.  So Prig was instructed to stand down and no doubt was informed what would happen if he didn't.  Not some empty treason threat from Putin, but a real threat by real people who could really carry it out.

Where things stand RIGHT Now is unclear.  Moscow is still under emergency lockdown, Wagner is not disbanded.  All the major public facing actors are largely silent (Putin allegedly called some other nations to say everything was fine).  This means things are (as Billindc  stated) still in flux.

Ask yourselves... what is the VERY first thing that happens when a coup is ended?  The victor gets on all forms of media and crows about it.  Strong words are used to instill confidence that stability is reestablished and life will get back to normal.  If anything, there's an overkill of communications from locations that clearly establish it's not BS.

The most notable absence is Shoigu and Gerasimov.  Their removal was the stated goal of Wagner's revolt, so if they won... why aren't they out there rubbing it in Prig's face?  Because they can't since their fate is either decided against them or still being discussed.

Steve

A major aspect of a coup is typically have some base of support and then if you have success more & more folks jump your winning side.  It's ridiculous to think he needed everyone on board before he even started, else it's not a secret.  It was clear a lot of powerful folks were on board, so what on earth happened?   But it's not like Prig is some master strategist like his boss, Putler.  Still, it's all very odd.

I now am rooting for Shoigu & Gerasimov & MOD to attempt a coup.  I bet they'd look to end the war ASAP and blame the failure on Putin betraying the armed forces from day 1.  "bring the boys home!  The great betrayer is dead!"  would be my rallying call.

[Battlefront.com]

For what it's worth, Ukraine's SBU stated that Prig was offered Shoigu and Gerasimov's heads on a platter if he stopped the attack.  I don't doubt that is part of the negotiations right now and is an inevitable outcome:

https://news.yahoo.com/prigozhin-may-offered-dismissal-shoigu-200100873.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB99Apg0nyvpNoETUXgNLNjX6fTk00xQRv2hWi37ZRql3zfRTOq4f-w4m3AR7OU8Eo9eWEBittT0IsKkoRpDGogkW0gcxCcuVAJHV1SdOJuHmnf7UbEdQoCN1JBlUSwZH_OsX-2VIrOlWnn8jCUoV1Oon9v0b_X_2LFyI-SjPsGO

Sooooooo... you have your forces in control of Rostov, which defacto gives you control over the war in Ukraine.  Your forces are on the final approach to Moscow and everything is going your way.  You've now been offered the two things you publicly demanded, being the dismissal of Shoigu and Gerasimov.  What choice would you make?

1. abandon your drive, abandon your fighters to their fate, and go into exile
2. continue your advance on Moscow to make sure the offered deal is not a ruse to buy the regime time
3. hedge your bets and withdraw to Rostov, a place treating you like heroes and effectively more valuable than Moscow

If you said #2 you'd be correct, but Prig chose #1 and apparently didn't even consider #3.

I just DO NOT understand why this is so difficult to see.  What happened yesterday makes NO SENSE AT ALL, which means something significant happened that we do not know about.

Steve