How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, kluge said:

It's now nighttime in Moscow. Could it be the case that the convoy(s) planned on stopping around this time regardless? I'll believe it when the sun rises.

This is entirely possible, though I suspect Prig did get certain concessions in exchange for stopping.  For now.

Steve

[kraze]

Just now, Grigb said:

Shoigy and Gerasimov are nothing more but a executors of Putin commands. Next ones will be the same.

If putin caved in that means he's willing to give military reigns to prig instead of losing all reigns.

So he most likely will be a talking head that will keep telling us prig's today's salary review application was part of the SMO plan, while military may as well may be under prig.

The stakes were highest since 1917. Prig is not dumb to get just faces replaced out of it.

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, Grigb said:

Prig claims he did order to pull back to the camps.

I stand corrected.  However, how many times did Putin say he pulled Russian forces back from the Ukrainian border in January 2022?

I do not yet believe that this is over unless Prig got a lot more concessions than we can imagine.

Steve

[Grigb]

There are conflicting reports regarding Wagnerites pulling back.

[UPDATE] RT reports they are pulling back from Rostov HQ. Locals report nothing changed yet.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Grigb

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

I stand corrected.  However, how many times did Putin say he pulled Russian forces back from the Ukrainian border in January 2022?

I do not yet believe that this is over unless Prig got a lot more concessions than we can imagine.

Steve

True

[FancyCat]

 

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Prig has only agreed to stop moving on Moscow.  He has not ordered his guys to disband, pull back to some base, or anything like that.  This is akin to what Putin would have done in Ukraine if Zelensky had given into negotiations; Russian troops might stop moving and fighting, but they would be sitting there getting ready to act again if necessary.

Still, it seems to me he crossed the Rubicon now. So the only way this could make any sense is if he is certain that the Russian army is so beaten that Putin is powerless to take him out. Marching on Moscow and then forcing Putin to make huge concessions after publicly calling him a traitor is a big stab at Putin's authority.

[kevinkin]

BBC:

Earlier today, Svitlana Tikhanovskaya, the opposition leader who challenged Lukashenko in 2020 presidential elections, said the Wagner’s rebellion “is the best chance to kick the Russian military out from [Belarus]”.

“If we miss this chance,” she said in her video appeal, “Russia will do to us exactly what they did to Ukraine.”

Could their people take to the streets again? More headaches and distractions for Russia. 

[kluge]

1 minute ago, kevinkin said:

Could their people take to the streets again? More headaches and distractions for Russia. 

Can't help but wonder what the leadership of states like Georgia and Moldova are thinking right now.

[Taranis]

34 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

-1 CAESAR :(

A day or another, it was inevitable... It's only one and the most important it's the crew. They are accidented and wounded  but seems survived. RU needs lots of efforts, time and ammo only to destroy one so good luck for the next... We will produced more... 

[Sekai]

7 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Still, it seems to me he crossed the Rubicon now. So the only way this could make any sense is if he is certain that the Russian army is so beaten that Putin is powerless to take him out. Marching on Moscow and then forcing Putin to make huge concessions after publicly calling him a traitor is a big stab at Putin's authority.

Yes, the harm has already been done, and this kind of reputational damage is irreparable

Edited June 24, 2023 by Sekai

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

And Wagner is sitting on top of all of their main logistics hubs, so good luck getting them the fuel, ammo and transportation they'd need.

A thought occurred to me earlier (i.e. before the apparent cease fire) about Rostov.  I had thought that Prig would be the one to shut the tap off if he wanted to, but think about it... if you were the Russian MoD and you had a rebellion sitting in Rostov, would you continue to transit weapons and munitions through Rostov where the rebellion could take whatever it wanted before letting whatever it didn't want to go through to the front?  I think not.

Which means that Prig occupying Rostov effectively ends resupplying the southern forces in Ukraine until Prig is done doing whatever he's doing.

And as I said, I don't think he's done yet.  Not unless he got a lot more out of this deal than we know of.  Because he had the regime by the balls.  Prig's guys could have brushed aside the MoD's forces there without much of a problem.  I have zero doubts about it.

Steve

[Haiduk]

According to unconfirmed information negotiations brought this:

- Shoigu and Gerasimov will be removed from duty

- guarantees for all Wagner fighters

- Prigozhyn will concentrate on business and protection of Russian influence in Africa

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Still, it seems to me he crossed the Rubicon now. So the only way this could make any sense is if he is certain that the Russian army is so beaten that Putin is powerless to take him out. Marching on Moscow and then forcing Putin to make huge concessions after publicly calling him a traitor is a big stab at Putin's authority.

And everybody knows Putin fled.  That is bad regime PR in all manner of ways, but especially if someone remembers that Zelensky did not flee.

Not to mention what this has done for the attitude of the average Muscovite.  As someone (Grigb?) said earlier, tanks in the streets is symbolic.  It is also the exact opposite of Putin's pact with the populace that their lives would never go back to the 1990s chaos.

Steve

[kraze]

4 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

BBC:

Earlier today, Svitlana Tikhanovskaya, the opposition leader who challenged Lukashenko in 2020 presidential elections, said the Wagner’s rebellion “is the best chance to kick the Russian military out from [Belarus]”.

“If we miss this chance,” she said in her video appeal, “Russia will do to us exactly what they did to Ukraine.”

Could their people take to the streets again? More headaches and distractions for Russia. 

Except Belarus has no russian military apart from a skeleton training crew.

Tikhanovskaya is also that person that demanded Ukraine to "liberate" (e.g. forcibly put her in power) Belarus.

She's rotten.

[BornGinger]

Could this be the time for business people to start producing and selling Prigozhin, Utkin and Wagner soldier action figures for kids to play with and collectors to buy and put on their shelf and in their safe?

If the Wagner soldiers move into Moscow and that later on causes a change of the government, it is possibly fair to say that Moscow finally has been conquered by an army which is in conflict with Russia.

Edited June 24, 2023 by BornGinger

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

Could this be the time for business men to start producing and selling Prigozhin, Utkin and Wagner soldier action figures for kids to play with and collectors to buy and put on their shelf and in their safe?

 

SHOIGU!!! GERASIMOV!!!

 

[dan/california]

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1672651487850242048
 

Can't get it to repost correctly, but this tweet says Ukraine has launched some level of operation to cross the Dnipro near Antonoskvy bridge. Do we know if this is true?

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by dan/california

[BornGinger]

@Bulletpoint One just have to remove the teeth, axes and spear and give the toy figure a Wagner uniform and a more modern assault weapon.

Edited June 24, 2023 by BornGinger

[Seedorf81]

19 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

How unbelievable this may sound, with Putin's KGB/FSB past, I even think it is possible this Wagner-uprising could be something else than it appears to be.

I still think that there is something very, very, weird going on. Putin either lost his sly, murderous and conniving ruthlessness, or he had something to do with this. 

 

[Haiduk]

A mess in Berdiansk - Russian security forces chase multiple deserters, which abandoned own units to join Wagners in Rostov. Gunfire is often heard all over the city

 

[Battlefront.com]

I want to thank everybody, especially Grigb, for putting in the time and effort to keep a running QUALITY discussion going in my morning's absence.  It was interesting to sneak my phone out, check where things were at, then slip it away again just like our lurker friends

In the middle of what I was doing someone I know came up and asked me if I knew what was going on and what the latest news is.  Thanks to this thread the answer was, and always will be, "yes!".

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, BornGinger said:

@Bulletpoint One just have to remove the teeth, axe and spear and give the toy figure a Wagner uniform and a more modern assault weapon.

 

To be fair, one would also have to change the green skin into an unhealthy pale complexion, but I was too lazy to do the photoshopping.

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1672651487850242048
 

Can't get it to repost correctly, but this tweet says Ukraine has launched some level of operation to cross the Dnipro near Antonoskvy bridge. Do we know if this is true?

 

I posted some details above, but this is all from Russian sources. UKR sources don't write anything

[Huba]

Whoa, that was anticlimactic! I won't even try to speculate what all that was about, and what outcome will it bring. I just hope AFU didn't get too overoptimistic about imminent RU collapse and didn't overextend itself with the major strikes they announced. Especially the Antonovsky bridgehead sounds like a very interesting development, but with a potential to quickly turn into a sizeable defeat if RU manages to counterattack it with enough forces. Worrisome, all of that.