How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

On 6/18/2023 at 10:37 AM, womble said:

That sounds like an incredibly specific exercise of placing the fixed wing in the most disadvantageous situation possible vis a vis the rotary. Nobody here, for sure, has suggested that F-16s go hunting Russian attack helos with cannon. AMRAAMs by look-down radar from 50km is more the speed we're talking. Beyond Visual Range. Do Ka-52 (or any AH) have the avionics to compete in that field?

That test exercise occurred almost half a century ago with technology that was cutting edge at the time. Hell, the U.S.M.C was still flying F4 Phantoms at the time. The technologies have changed exponentially, and are way different now.. the KA-50 and KA-52 can be and are armed with many different types of air-to-air missiles, countermeasures, etc. Truth be told, rotor craft  are much more capable and deadly than many folks would lead you to believe.

[Vet 0369]

On 6/18/2023 at 4:03 PM, DesertFox said:

How to demilitarize a T-55 - Orc style

 

 

Well, I figure that’s one UKR RPG gunner who needs to clean out his shorts, if he even survived the concussive an shrapnel effects of the explosion!

[Boche]

15 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Russian optimisim:

 

"The way our officers and soldier fight will be studied in every academy in the world"

Well, he is right but not in the way he thinks.

[Battlefront.com]

A reminder of how bad relations between Russia and the West were BEFORE the war.  An article put out today detailing Russia's attempts to assassinate an ex-Russian intelligence officer on US soil.  Part of Putin's vengence operations which included Skirpal a few years earlier:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/19/us/politics/russia-spy-assassination.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230620&instance_id=95556&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=136162&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6

It's likely behind a paywall, but the gist is that Aleksandr Poteyev was on a list of people Putin wanted dead for betraying Russian secrets.  After Skripal (2018) the CIA was very aware Poteyev was a likely target.  Russia used extortion to get a Mexican national to gather information about Poteyev's car, but not being trained in such matters he botched things badly sometime in 2020.  In 2021 Russian intelligence officers were given the boot from the US as a result, Russia booted US intelligence officers in kind.

Steve

[poesel]

10 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

According to tv-program I (partially) saw this week, China has the same problem, but even more so because of "societal pressure for status". Which means that in China being an ordinary labourer is considered even more honourless than in Western countries.

Oh yes, huge problem. We teach our Chinese colleagues and as soon as they know stuff to be useful, they get promoted to office work. Field work has bad status and bad pay. So we have to work with a string of newbies.

5 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Maybe the Stryker when equipped with sidewinders?
https://www.facebook.com/generaldynamicslandsystems/posts/yes-those-are-aim-9x-sidewinder-missiles-arming-the-stryker-maneuver-shorad-laun/1844875482213038/

Or the Croatale:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crotale_(missile)

Or this stuff:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_(missile)

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_(Waffensystem)

The English article is very focused on the missile, the German on the system. France & Germany had quite a lot of them, and they were phased out together with the Gepard. But I don't know what became of them.

8 km range is not that much but better than nothing.

Edited June 20, 2023 by poesel

[billbindc]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A reminder of how bad relations between Russia and the West were BEFORE the war.  An article put out today detailing Russia's attempts to assassinate an ex-Russian intelligence officer on US soil.  Part of Putin's vengence operations which included Skirpal a few years earlier:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/19/us/politics/russia-spy-assassination.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230620&instance_id=95556&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=136162&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6

It's likely behind a paywall, but the gist is that Aleksandr Poteyev was on a list of people Putin wanted dead for betraying Russian secrets.  After Skripal (2018) the CIA was very aware Poteyev was a likely target.  Russia used extortion to get a Mexican national to gather information about Poteyev's car, but not being trained in such matters he botched things badly sometime in 2020.  In 2021 Russian intelligence officers were given the boot from the US as a result, Russia booted US intelligence officers in kind.

Steve

Don't forget our friend Oleg Smolenkov. His hurried removal from his Northern Virginia house was in reaction to a credible threat from Moscow. Things were heading in an obvious direction for those of us paying attention who weren't inclined to expect miracles.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/ex-russian-official-thought-to-have-spied-for-the-us-was-hiding-in-plain-sight/2019/09/10/21cee7cc-d400-11e9-9610-fb56c5522e1c_story.html

[JonS]

On 6/20/2023 at 2:43 PM, Battlefront.com said:

There seems to be three separate issues identified in this article

I'd say there is a fourth issue, not identified in the article but contributing significantly to the amount of equipment that's been red-lined:

4. Ukraine thrashing kit in ways it's not intended for. The Caesar is an obvious example; a lovely bit of kit, but fragile and not really intended to be used at high rates of fire for extended periods.

Edited June 21, 2023 by JonS

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, Grigb said:

While reading RU BS I realized something - Looks like I do not see RU VKS work. Is it due of my prejudice, or are they truly missing?

Our official and twitter sources are posting almost every day about gliding bomb usage on right bank of Kherson oblast and Zaporizhzhia oblast. 

[Haiduk]

Russians tried to push off UKR troops from Pyatykhatky, throwing whole tank company in attack, but as one our account writes "now the road from Zherebynka to Pyatukahtky" turned out equivalent of Chornobaivka, because of "Stugna-P" teams and artilelry of 128th mountain-assault brigade destroyed most of enemy armor 

On the video you can see Russian armor, moving from the south, from village Hrozove, passing through long hangars to the road fork. Tanks, which were hit were on the way to Pyatykatky

Stugna-P team at work near Pyatykatky

Video from the same location, with "hell rider" - burning Russian armor on full speed drives along the road from Hrozove and turns west deeper to Zherebyanky 

Russian milbloggers about situation:

In total. No any Piatikahtki was returned. Moreover, the enemy advaned further and already assaults Zherebyanki. All messages that Piatikhatki are turned back, turned out a fake.

Where these Osetian "yeblans" [I can't translate this obscent word adequately :) ], who said they recaptured Piatilhatki?

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Don't forget our friend Oleg Smolenkov. His hurried removal from his Northern Virginia house was in reaction to a credible threat from Moscow. Things were heading in an obvious direction for those of us paying attention who weren't inclined to expect miracles.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/ex-russian-official-thought-to-have-spied-for-the-us-was-hiding-in-plain-sight/2019/09/10/21cee7cc-d400-11e9-9610-fb56c5522e1c_story.html

And the mysterious death of that Russian diplomat down the street from you:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/jasonleopold/putins-media-czar-was-murdered-just-before-meeting-feds

And these are just the high profile ones.  There's no telling how many "small fries" met with early deaths that nobody noticed.

Steve

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

And one more.  Supposedly the South Ossetian battalion that RU sources said was wiped out is alive and well and proving they weren't wiped out at Pyatikhatki by posting a video of a platoon in some random patch of woods.  Would be interesting to know what they said (roughly speaking):

Battalion "Shtorm Osetia" before fight for Pyatykhatky

and after

In the video nothing interesting - "Ukrainain video is a fake, we lost several our comrades, but battalion still fights for Pyatykhatky with Nazi scum"

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians tried to push off UKR troops from Pyatykhatky, throwing whole tank company in attack, but as one our account writes "now the road from Zherebynka to Pyatukahtky" turned out equivalent of Chornobaivka, because of "Stugna-P" teams and artilelry of 128th mountain-assault brigade destroyed most of enemy armor 

Hmm.  I don't really understand Russia's obsession with taking back this tiny patch of land.  It is not within their main line of defense, it does not pinch off a LOC, it's not high ground... so either I'm missing something or Russia is blowing through its resources in pure doctrinal "if they take something we need to take it back"?

Steve

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Nice

 

 

Maybe just coincidence, but today there was explosion on powder factory in Tambov. 4 employees are dead, 12 wounded. Officially - "human factor", unofficially work of Russian resistance. Or "first successful usage of 1000 km range UAV"

https://www.gazeta.ru/social/news/2023/06/20/20708564.shtml  (official version in Russian )

Edited June 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hmm.  I don't really understand Russia's obsession with taking back this tiny patch of land.  It is not within their main line of defense, it does not pinch off a LOC, it's not high ground... so either I'm missing something or Russia is blowing through its resources in pure doctrinal "if they take something we need to take it back"?

Steve

Suitable bridgehead, opening T0812 road toward Vasylivka. UKR forces can cut Russians in Kamyanske and move further to Enerhodar on west and Melitopol on south.

Road fork near hangars in Zherebyanky is on the height 92, probably most high point in the area

Mashovets has written today about situation on this part of front, maybe @Grigb will translate later, I have no time alas ( 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

Strange things going on in hungaria

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Suitable bridgehead, opening T0812 road toward Vasylivka. UKR forces can cut Russians in Kamyanske and move further to Enerhodar on west and Melitopol on south.

Road fork near hangars in Zherebyanky is on the height 92, probably most high point in the area

Mashovets has written today about situation on this part of front, maybe @Grigb will translate later, I have no time alas ( 

Thanks.  I still don't see it as a critical threat to their front.  Luhove, on the other hand, makes the Russian positions in Kamianske extremely difficult.  So I suppose Pyatykhatky is mostly important because it puts Ukraine closer to taking Luhove.

Steve

[Kinophile]

On 6/19/2023 at 5:14 PM, Haiduk said:

The video. Other man without blure near Zaluzhnyi is lt.general Serhiy Shaptala, Chief of General Staff - "the brain" of operations. Completely not media person, but his role in this war undeservedly relegated to background.  

In 2015 Shaptala was a commander of 128th mountain-infantry brigade, which was a backbone of Debaltsevo bulge defense. When Putin has broken Minsk-2 agreements since several hours  and UKR grouping turned out in very gard situation and UKR politiacal and high military command were in full confusion (they again believed in agreements with Russians, not having Plan B), Shaptala personally with own staff in several hours developed breacktrhrough operation and took all responsibility on himself. He could withdrew all troops with relatively minimal losses in personnel.   

I remember reading that about him, andother actions. A good man, very smart. 

[DesertFox]

37 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Maybe just coincidence, but today there was explosion on powder factory in Tambov. 4 employees are dead, 12 wounded. Officially - "human factor", unofficially work of Russian resistance. Or "first successful usage of 1000 km range UAV"

https://www.gazeta.ru/social/news/2023/06/20/20708564.shtml  (official version in Russian )

Yep. Could well be. Or this one:

 

[DesertFox]

Near Kreminna

 

 

[panzermartin]

After the suicide vbied T55s, MTLBs, the moving House tank, Lada Niva AT hunter, maybe there is enough material for a future module with the chance to see also sidecars in CM: 

 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

And the mysterious death of that Russian diplomat down the street from you:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/jasonleopold/putins-media-czar-was-murdered-just-before-meeting-feds

And these are just the high profile ones.  There's no telling how many "small fries" met with early deaths that nobody noticed.

Steve

My party trick is <cough>lesin<cough, cough, cough>.

[sburke]

26 minutes ago, billbindc said:

My party trick is <cough>lesin<cough, cough, cough>.

maybe Chevy Chase can re-enact the crime scene.  

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Near Kreminna

 

 

I just do NOT get deliberately putting tanks into knife fight range of light AT weapons.  I mean, that field is flat as a pancake from what I can see, so why aren't the tanks sitting a few hundred meters back and letting something more expendable ferry the infantry into position?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another example of why it sucks to be infantry (or anybody) in this sort of war.  Video shows the bulk of a squad (min 5 men) moving into what SHOULD be excellent cover and concealment; a basement of a destroyed home.  Too bad for them there's a drone watching.  After they move into the basement a drone with a grenade drops them a surprise.  Given the typical layout of a basement, it is probably that someone caught a bit of shrapnel.  You can also see at least 2 dead Russians sprawled on the ground to the upper left in the bomber sequence:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14e4dzj/elimination_of_the_enemy_assault_group_in_the/

This was in Marinka (probably on the edge).

And if there was any one position that used up all of Russia's ATGMs, I think it would be the slag heap at Marinka:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14e4b32/mariinsky_direction_air_reconnaissance_group/
 

Holy crow that is a lot of spent tubes!!!  The position is located here:

47.93466355747716, 37.5313885239513

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

BTW, I think I'm seeing a strategy emerging for Ukrainian control of media releases.  I think they've given clearance for some units in some sectors to post as usual.  The areas chosen are ones that aren't part of new fighting.  Bakhmut, Kreminna, Marinka, Avdiivka, etc.

If so, this is smart.  Very smart.  The Russians are unlikely to learn anything useful from these releases, yet it helps satisfy pro-Ukrainian desire to see SOMETHING.  It also might give pro-Russians more things to cry about which aren't, in the big picture, all that important to the counter offensive.

Steve