How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

From ISW's June 18th report:

Quote

Ukrainian forces may be temporarily pausing counteroffensive operations to reevaluate their tactics for future operations. Head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Colonel Margo Grosberg stated on June 16 that he assesses "we won't see an offensive over the next seven days.”[7]The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on June 17 that Ukrainian forces “have mostly paused their advances in recent days” as Ukrainian command reexamines tactics.[8] These reports are consistent with ISW’s recent observations of the scale and approach of localized Ukrainian counterattacks in southern and eastern Ukraine.[9] ISW has previously noted that Ukraine has not yet committed the majority of its available forces to counteroffensive operations and has not yet launched its main effort.[10] Operational pauses are a common feature of major offensive undertakings, and this pause does not signify the end of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

This seems very logical.  Through our own observations Ukraine has attempted a number of different ways of breaching Russia's lines.  Everything from bold heavy armored breaching to smoke clouded infantry swarms.  It makes a lot of sense to collate data and assess which tactics are providing better results before committing the main force even if they know exactly where they want to attack next.

Steve

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, Grigb said:

FighterBomber's silence is a good thing (he would undoubtedly deny it otherwise). AFAIK, all RU propagandists (even unofficial ones) received a serious message to stop talking about RU failures. Take a look at Girkin. After the start of the offensive, he speaks as if he is a regular RU TG propagandist. And the quality of information from everyone else declined dramatically.

Rumor is RU MOD is aware that they are in a difficult situation and will most likely have to retreat. To avoid shocking the RU public, they opted to closely control the narrative from the outset of the offense. That is why the meeting with Putin took place - if you are a faithful Z nazi, you cannot refuse request from the God Emperor and remain close to your sources on the front lines. You will have to travel to RU and be completely under the care of really kind people. 

So, I am leaning toward accepting that RU took some (unknow) helicopter losses recently. AFU is not completely toothless. 

So we may be looking at a month of knowing virtually nothing. At least if the war bloggers go quiet the Russian MOD will have even less idea what is happening. Ukraine may blow a hole clean through the Russian line somewhere before word gets to Moscow by official channels that things have gone from bad to worse. I firmly believe that some one in the Russian system finds the reality check the war bloggers provide useful. Otherwise they would all have fallen out of very high windows months ago. 

The AFU has clearly decided that the propaganda that matters is Leopards and HIMARS lined up on the AZOV coast, and that they can just take the info war hit in the meantime.

[dan/california]

15 hours ago, chris talpas said:

Latest Perun drop

 

This may be Perun's master piece.

[DesertFox]

Very close quarters

 

 

[Grigb]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

From ISW's June 18th report:

This seems very logical.  Through our own observations Ukraine has attempted a number of different ways of breaching Russia's lines.  Everything from bold heavy armored breaching to smoke clouded infantry swarms.  It makes a lot of sense to collate data and assess which tactics are providing better results before committing the main force even if they know exactly where they want to attack next.

Steve

I somewhat disagree that this is about what works or does not work. According to my observations, RU depleted local resources, paused, and then began to bring in portions of main reserves, pushing helis and other weapon systems (i.e. TOS) forward. Naturally, in response to the RU move, UKR stopped in several places to analyze the altered situation, consolidate and redeploy forces. But they are also pushing in other directions (Pyatikhatka).

As a result, the pause is due to a major change in the RU disposition that UKR need to reassess and react. Unfortunately, the RU change is not what we are waiting for yet. 

 

24 minutes ago, dan/california said:

So we may be looking at a month of knowing virtually nothing.

Exactly. From the start of the offensive, I am getting waaay less useful info from RU sources. They are all now like - Our glorious guys are holding against UKR human waves! UKR dead bodies are piling up but your guy report everything is fine!

Also, that's why we must be extra careful with Western media , pundits and OSINT guys now because they are getting info for the same sources which is mostly BS now. 

Look at Girkin now:

Quote

...Taking into mind the significant losses, the outcome is, to put it plainly, unimpressive.
Furthermore, capturing the settlement provides no benefits to the adversary in terms of developing a further offensive.

There are two issues here. Girkin, unlike in the past, unequivocally supports RU MOD claims about losses. He also lies about the significance of Pyatikhatky (it is a road to Vasilevka that opens up a route to the flank and creates the Vasilevka-Kamianke pocket). He now writes as if he is the unofficial RU MOD spokesperson.

Have Western media and various pundits realized it yet? I doubt. 

[Fenris]

15 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Exactly. From the start of the offensive, I am getting waaay less useful info from RU sources. They are all now like - Our glorious guys are holding against UKR human waves! UKR dead bodies are piling up but your guy report everything is fine!

 

Here's an example of this kind of RU material.  This story was doing the rounds yesterday and piqued my interest.  Very quickly picked up and telegraphed by all the usual channels as well as translated into many other languages.  All of them included most of the important bits from this piece verbatim. I particularly liked the NATO deadline bit.

 

[Kinophile]

Yup. Anyone who uses adjectives like "shocking" is one adverb away from clickbait.

[Tux]

Short piece from the BBC today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65921377
 

Nothing too groundbreaking but I think it’s the first time I’ve heard explicit mention on drones being used to drop smoke grenades at precise spots.  It’s an obvious use for them I suppose and hopefully something we see in future CM titles…

[Artkin]

59 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Very close quarters

 

 

Speaking of shocking. FFS that's some scary ****. 

[Grigb]

42 minutes ago, Fenris said:

 

Here's an example of this kind of RU material.  This story was doing the rounds yesterday and piqued my interest.  Very quickly picked up and telegraphed by all the usual channels as well as translated into many other languages.  All of them included most of the important bits from this piece verbatim. I particularly liked the NATO deadline bit.

 

The best part is that Yuri Podolyaka, aka YuraSumy, is well-known among RU Nats as a renowned liar who will tell anything for money. He is currently paid by the Russian government to distribute RU propaganda.

Some quotes from RU Nats:

Grubnik, Murz's RU Nat boss (Murz has an official military boss, but this one is unofficial and more significant).

Quote

He's a weather vane [man who lacks commitment and readily turns in the other way like a weather vane] who now behaves like a Guardian [of Putin faction] sh*t. It used to be the other way around.

But, in reality, he's a prostitute who will say anything for money or another resource.
Who has been lying about the "Minsk" and trends in general for a year while it was profitable. He broadcasted triumphant stories throughout spring [2022], and when the reality was revealed during the retreats, he exploded with righteous rage: "I'm not like that, I'm an innocent virgin [who has no relation to that coverup]." Look at all the debauchery!!! "How did this happen?"

Murz himself

Quote

A "spineless piece of ****" who can be turned to any way and put up as a "clown" [to cover] any "cunning plan" [sarcasm] that he will embrace. He is the foundation of our state-owned media, and not only media.

Nothing new to discover. Yurasumy, Rogers, and Zagatin are all over the place.

 

[Grigb]

Nesmian (Civilian Girkin) confirms what I wrote regarding RU military "reporters".

Quote

Following Putin's meeting with military reporters, one of those present - Sladkov - admitted quite innocently that he had been in quarantine [for a week] prior to the meeting [they all were], and thus he was not entirely aware of how things were at the front, at least in terms of personal impressions.

 

[Taranis]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Very close quarters

 

 

What are those russians guys ? Conscripts ? No cooperation... Rushing... No dead angle check... Panic and confusion played probably in it but not totally... At least, it's a good thing for our UKR SF friends.

[Grigb]

They - do not poke RU, they are sane and intelligent people.

RU - Official statement of the Russian Defense Ministry - The US plans to deliver mosquitoes using UAVs to infect enemy [RU] troops

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

Edited June 19, 2023 by DesertFox

[FancyCat]

 

[Offshoot]

54 minutes ago, Grigb said:

They - do not poke RU, they are sane and intelligent people.

RU - Official statement of the Russian Defense Ministry - The US plans to deliver mosquitoes using UAVs to infect enemy [RU] troops

 

They mention Kherson, so maybe the Russian MoD is afraid the reported outbreak of cholera is going to get pretty bad and is getting it's excuses in early.

[kraze]

3 hours ago, Fenris said:

 

Here's an example of this kind of RU material.  This story was doing the rounds yesterday and piqued my interest.  Very quickly picked up and telegraphed by all the usual channels as well as translated into many other languages.  All of them included most of the important bits from this piece verbatim. I particularly liked the NATO deadline bit.

 

That Will guy has a tweet about Bush did 9/11, not quite sure if his target audience will somehow get any different world view than they already have.

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

Well, we can't say we weren't warned   I wish he was able to find someone reliable to take it over for him.  Hopefully this message is a dual purpose of finding that special someone.

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

What are those russians guys ? Conscripts ? No cooperation... Rushing... No dead angle check... Panic and confusion played probably in it but not totally... At least, it's a good thing for our UKR SF friends.

The last guy that gets killed is wearing pretty much all civilian clothing under the helmet and body armor.  The second guy that was killed I don't think had a weapon!

This defenders aren't even capable of pretty obvious stuff.  If you are in your OWN trench you should know where the danger spots are, yet they all moved around as if there was no danger.  The last guy walked right in front of a junction without looking to his right!!

I get it that war is confusing and even experienced soldiers can get caught with their guard down.  But what we just saw was a bunch of rookie mistakes which, apparently, continued as the video text claims there's 6 more we didn't see (grenades probably got some).

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

I somewhat disagree that this is about what works or does not work. According to my observations, RU depleted local resources, paused, and then began to bring in portions of main reserves, pushing helis and other weapon systems (i.e. TOS) forward. Naturally, in response to the RU move, UKR stopped in several places to analyze the altered situation, consolidate and redeploy forces. But they are also pushing in other directions (Pyatikhatka).

As a result, the pause is due to a major change in the RU disposition that UKR need to reassess and react. Unfortunately, the RU change is not what we are waiting for yet. 

That's what I'm talking about as well.  A combination of things Russia has done and Ukraine is trying to figure out makes it natural (and sensible) to take some time to analyze and shift as necessary.  For example doing something about the helicopter threat before doing large scale mech assaults or figuring out ways to counter EW.

This does not mean that Ukraine isn't going to still push where it thinks it can when it can.  Their plan to put pressure on varying points in the line simultaneously is not going to be completely stopped because a) it is a sound strategic concept and b) it is working (ground was just taken in Avdiivka and Kreminna as well).  What I think ISW is saying, and it does appear to be happening, is that the intensity and scale of Ukraine's attacks may decrease for a little while (I don't think a week like the Estonian quoted) while they make adjustments.

This is the exact sort of thing Russia has not done at all since this war started.  Instead, Russia's approach is to start an operation with a plan and execute it until it succeeds (or more often) fails.  Bakhmut is the only real exception to this and only because it was like a bunch of separate operations without any definitive pause between them.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

Also, that's why we must be extra careful with Western media , pundits and OSINT guys now because they are getting info for the same sources which is mostly BS now. 

Thanks for the deep dive into this very important development.  I've certainly noted that Girkin isn't ranting like he used to even though recently he's been promoting the Angry Patriots. 

From an OSINT standpoint this sucks.  Even though we knew we could never trust a Russian source as far as it could be thrown, there was often some pretty good stuff to be gleaned from their posts.  Either what they said or didn't say about some specific action or general situation.  Now... sounds like that tap has largely been turned off. 

As with all authoritarian systems, if someone is saying things that run contrary to the official message you hit them with a club or throw them out a window.  The pushback from the bloggers has been getting steadily more "treasonous" as Russia's failures have mounted.  Since Putin can't fix the basic problems, it seems he's finally moving to fix the people who keep pointing this out.  It was bound to happen and, frankly, I'm surprised it didn't happen last year.

Steve

[Grigb]

A reminder of how RU Nats perceive the English-speaking world. This is not some unknown marginalized freak, but Lobaev, the only maker of long-range sniper rifles in Russia. He's like the Elon Musk of RU precision shooting industry.

Quote

That's correct, Andrey. This is how Anglo-Saxons think and behave. The only ethnogroup in the world that elevated meanness/betrayal/robbery to the status of a political emblem, putting it on pedestal. Nobody else's economy was founded on piracy, robbery, and drug trafficking. Only their's economy. The elite of the Anglo-Saxon countries adjusted to these circumstances. While their neighbors were building armies, these people perfected the technology of blowing apart opponents from within, then swooping in like hyenas and pumping out the most valuable [resources]. And with such a life, they couldn't possibly act any differently!

Absolutely rational and sane people. 

[DesertFox]

49 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

They mention Kherson, so maybe the Russian MoD is afraid the reported outbreak of cholera is going to get pretty bad and is getting it's excuses in early.

 

Edited June 19, 2023 by DesertFox

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the exact sort of thing Russia has not done at all since this war started.  Instead, Russia's approach is to start an operation with a plan and execute it until it succeeds (or more often) fails.  Bakhmut is the only real exception to this and only because it was like a bunch of separate operations without any definitive pause between them.

The use of RU glided bombs, I believe, was crucial for Bakhmut. Previously, Wagnerites were helpless against the UKR's urban strongholds. However, as soon as VKS Ru Nats began gloating about the bombs, I noticed clear progress of Wagnerites in urban areas.