How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Yet said:

nailed it!

I this forum would be alot less fuzz if we all try a bit better to pinpoint if something is a fact, an observation, an integrated view a speculation or an opinion.

views, speculations and opinions are sometimes word-wrapped as facts. when its unclear to anyone: ask. 

We all make a 10000 pieces puzzle, some people already know that is gonna be a boat and say: look! this is wood from somewhere at the deck of the boat! other people say: to me is juist a brown puzzlepiece, until it is at its place with enough neigbours to make a clear picture.  

Both are right, everyone should try to understand that everyone sees the same pieces, but some people have seen more pieces than others and/or are quicker to place a piece (because they have more puzzle experience?)

If someone shouts: "this is the deck of the boat!" they mean: this is a brown piece that has the texture and colors that makes me assume that in the big picture of a boat this could very well be a piece of the deck and therefore we could place it in the right corner of the puzzle for now and see if we can find some more neighbouring pieces to be able to get a clear picture. However: we are a forum, so dont expect people to write like that.

Nicely put.  

[benpark]

This remote deminer is the only thing I've found that looks beyond a prototype, which could be in some form of production beyond what is seen in the attached press images:

https://www.military.com/equipment/m160-remote-controlled-mine-clearance-system

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

Copium is some structural steel bars welded over the top of your T-72 because 'Ukraine have Javelins; Javelins attack from above; I just can't bear the thought of how horribly vulnerable to Javelin attack I am in my tank; Steel is hard and can be used as armour; QED'.  Copium is "Intelligent Design".

I'm thinking maybe those cages are more against mortars and drone dropped munitions hitting the top of the turret. Maybe even against artillery shells coming down at a steep angle.

In previous wars, the risk of a direct hit were small, but with modern artillery response times and accuracy, you can hit individual tanks even without guided shells.

[Tux]

44 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Things get difficult when both worlds mix, which is in a way what is going on here.

I agree but it can only be the reader’s responsibility to identify and be clear about which type of post they are responding to.

 

Quote

…it is never wrong to challenge a theory. On the contrary it is absolutely necessary.

Again agreed but the key word here is “challenge”, as opposed to just ‘doubt’.  You challenge by discussing weaknesses in the theory or by building a good case for an alternative.  Simply expressing doubt might feel healthy but is not helpful and can be insulting to the person who has worked hard to establish a case.

[Tux]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm thinking maybe those cages are more against mortars and drone dropped munitions hitting the top of the turret. Maybe even against artillery shells coming down at a steep angle.

In previous wars, the risk of a direct hit were small, but with modern artillery response times and accuracy, you can hit individual tanks even without guided shells.

Yes ok, you may be right, although as far as I remember when they first appeared last Spring they were very much ‘justified’ in the context of the Javelin threat. I think it was before attack drones became a significant factor.

Either way I’m not sure the case for the efficacy of the original examples was very convincing.

[Beleg85]

5 hours ago, panzermartin said:

I feel our Europe is in deep trouble with this war, and constantly undermining Russia is a dangerous habit I won't support here

Are we sure we observe the same genocidal, simple war of conquest? If you are so afraid of "undermining" Russia, here is you adress of complains and source of all of the fuss : http://www.en.kremlin.ru/contacts

You are not rightfully criticizning, you get whacked by arguments and are now doing another virtue signalling, while clearly parroting Putin propaganda matrix you saw on some Russian forum. And you don't even get that- that's btw. how propaganda of this type works. Its victims are always people who think of themselves as freethinkers, outside constraints of mainstream media, but who are in fact mentally not equipped to properly build their own worldview that would be anchored in both political realism and some basic ethics. Ukrainians and "American overlords" guilty of Larissa rail accident, USA building bases to "force" others to watch Micky Mouse, poor bombed Nazis in WWII etc. These are the same, unmistakeable symptoms of reducing everything toward symetristic bull*hit.

I am more and more inclined to believe that if world in 1939 would have internet and contrarian keyboard warriors, whole Europe would be foocked royally, divided between Brown and Red totalitarian empires up to this day, doing whatever they want.

Ok, I have enough of this, so where was this mute button...

Edited June 15, 2023 by Beleg85

[Bulletpoint]

Just now, Tux said:

Yes ok, you may be right, although as far as I remember when they first appeared last Spring they were very much ‘justified’ in the context of the Javelin threat. I think it was before attack drones became a significant factor.

Either way I’m not sure the case for the efficacy of the original examples was very convincing.

I don't think they seem very effective either, just wondering if the Russians themselves ever justified them as a countermeasure to Javelins or if it was Western commentators who assumed that.

Maybe they are reasonably effective against drone dropped cluster munitions or custom hollow-charge bombs - that doesn't mean they are protected against all the other threats of course.

Could be a bit like the German Zimmerite anti-magnetic covering. Maybe it saved a couple of tanks from magnetic mines, but not exactly a miracle defence.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, benpark said:

This remote deminer is the only thing I've found that looks beyond a prototype, which could be in some form of production beyond what is seen in the attached press images:

https://www.military.com/equipment/m160-remote-controlled-mine-clearance-system

This is the problem of where we were as western militaries; we never thought this sort of war would happen again.  We have been fighting dust wars against VEOs and insurgents for nearly 20 years, before that were interventions against opponents that had all the capability and operational art of a tethered goat with learning disabilities.  So here we are neck deep into a peer-on-peer proxy war of extremely high intensity sustained combat....who would have thunk it?

So defence industry and militaries have a complex relationship.  Those on the left would have us believe it is all the corporations "being corporationy", and there is some truth to this but in reality defence industry takes signals from defence itself and invests and develops in these highlighted areas.   We highlighted "demining" and AP threats and promptly forgot all about major combat breaching operations because ISIL does not build mine belts km long.  So now we are pushing what we have into Ukraine but a lot of it is last gen and sub-optimized because we are sub-optimized for this sort of war.  The big question after this war will be where to completely re-tool and where to be more conservative.  If history is any indication, we will talk ourselves into "well it is an eastern European anomaly", "Russia Sux" and "We would do it right", so we really do not need to do major overhauls.  The European powers did the exact same thing after observing the US Civil War (except it was "America Sux") which led to that little whoopsie we call WWI.

Here is hoping we go in other directions. 

[Tux]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

just wondering if the Russians themselves ever justified them as a countermeasure to Javelins or if it was Western commentators who assumed that.

Yes, point taken. Again as far as I remember that was the blanket assumption on Telegram and elsewhere at the time.  Not sure what else they could have been intended to defend against at that point:  PGMs had been around for years, drones weren’t yet a major threat.  Javelins were Ukraine’s new toy at the time. 
 

Anyway, I’m as reluctant as the next man to clutter the thread while an actual offensive is underway, so I’ll step back at this point.

[cesmonkey]

 

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't think they seem very effective either, just wondering if the Russians themselves ever justified them as a countermeasure to Javelins or if it was Western commentators who assumed that.

No, RU themselves who clearly stated that Blinders would counter top-atacking ATGMs, heavily implying Javelins. 

[Bulletpoint]

11 minutes ago, Tux said:

Yes, point taken. Again as far as I remember that was the blanket assumption on Telegram and elsewhere at the time.  Not sure what else they could have been intended to defend against at that point:  PGMs had been around for years, drones weren’t yet a major threat.  Javelins were Ukraine’s new toy at the time. 
 

Anyway, I’m as reluctant as the next man to clutter the thread while an actual offensive is underway, so I’ll step back at this point.

I don't want to clutter the thread either, I just think it's interesting from a military point of view, and also in a larger perspective about how various narratives are constructed in this war. Drone dropped munitions had already been used by Islamic State in the Syrian Civil War, so it's not too much of a stretch to think that maybe somebody realised they would play a role in this war too. But yes, let's continue the focus on the developments on the ground.

[billbindc]

Looks like Moscow is queuing up the next atrocity.

[DesertFox]

Meanwhile in the war criminal camp...

 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Quote

MEPs call on NATO allies to honour their commitment to Ukraine and pave the way for Kyiv to be invited to join the defence alliance.

In the resolution, adopted on Thursday with 425 votes in favour, 38 against with 42 abstentions, MEPs stress that they expect that the “accession process will start after the war is over and be finalised as soon as possible”.

 

Until full membership is achieved, the EU and its member states, together with NATO allies and like-minded partners, must work closely with Ukraine to develop a temporary framework for security guarantees, MEPs say, which is to be implemented immediately after the war. Parliament emphasises that Ukraine’s integration in both NATO and the EU would enhance regional and global security and strengthen the bonds between Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic community.

 

The destruction of the Kakhovka dam is a war crime

 

MEPs condemn in the strongest possible terms Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka dam on 6 June, which constitutes a war crime and has caused extensive flooding and created an environmental disaster as well as ecocide in Ukraine.

 

All those responsible for war crimes, including the destruction of the dam, will be held accountable in line with international law, they add.

 

Need for a comprehensive EU recovery package for Ukraine

 

Parliament calls for a comprehensive and adequate EU recovery package for Ukraine, which should focus on the country’s immediate, medium- and long-term relief, reconstruction and recovery. They look forward to the European Commission’s upcoming proposed review of the current Multiannual Financial Framework and the proposed Rebuild Ukraine Facility, which will cover financing for Ukrainian reconstruction needs in the coming years.

 

MEPs highlight the importance of linking the reconstruction of Ukraine with its EU accession preparations and ongoing domestic reforms, while stressing that rebuilding damaged infrastructure and industrial capacity should take place in accordance with the “build back better” principle and the European Green Deal. This would help transform the country into a carbon-free and digital modern European welfare state and market economy.

 

Hope that EU accession negotiations with Ukraine can begin this year
 

Parliament finally reiterates its support for the European Council’s decision to grant Ukraine EU candidate status last year. MEPs express hope for a positive recommendation from the European Commission once Ukraine has successfully completed the seven steps set out in the Commission's opinion. They ask for a clear pathway for the start of accession negotiations, which, with enough support, could begin already this year.

 

For all the details, the full resolution will be available here (15.06.2023).

Source: Parliament calls on NATO to invite Ukraine to join the alliance (europa.eu)

[Centurian52]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

What I'm saying is the 10% losses might have had a shock value greater than the actual losses might suggest.  Kinda like someone losing a toe to a lawn mower.  You might still have 9 left and retain the ability to walk, but you might not handle that law mower with the same confidence as before

To add to this, 10% losses absolutely is very significant. We tend to grossly underestimate how badly units are devastated by relatively "small" percentage losses. In part because we do the arithmetic and think that a unit which suffers 10% losses is still 90% effective (in reality suffering 10% losses may render a unit <10% effective). And in part because the reference point for most members of this community in particular is CM, and casualty rates in CM are too high (no sim gets this right, CM is still the best sim out there).

In general I think of casualty rates in the following terms:

1% losses: That felt like a real fight. You may even have known some of the people who became casualties.

10% losses: That was an exceptionally difficult fight. Multiple members of your own platoon became casualties, and possibly a couple members of your squad.

20% losses: That was a historically bloody fight. This casualty rate is within the ballpark of such historically bloody battles as Gettysburg or Waterloo.

It's worth noting that this only applies to single actions. A unit which is temporarily incapacitated by 10% casualties will likely recover. It is not unusual for units to take casualties in excess of 100% over several months of fighting.

[hcrof]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Are we sure we observe the same genocidal, simple war of conquest? If you are so afraid of "undermining" Russia, here is you adress of complains and source of all of the fuss : http://www.en.kremlin.ru/contacts

You are not rightfully criticizning, you get whacked by arguments and are now doing another virtue signalling, while clearly parroting Putin propaganda matrix you saw on some Russian forum. And you don't even get that- that's btw. how propaganda of this type works. Its victims are always people who think of themselves as freethinkers, outside constraints of mainstream media, but who are in fact mentally not equipped to properly build their own worldview that would be anchored in both political realism and some basic ethics. Ukrainians and "American overlords" guilty of Larissa rail accident, USA building bases to "force" others to watch Micky Mouse, poor bombed Nazis in WWII etc. These are the same, unmistakeable symptoms of reducing everything toward symetristic bull*hit.

I am more and more inclined to believe that if world in 1939 would have internet and contrarian keyboard warriors, whole Europe would be foocked royally, divided between Brown and Red totalitarian empires up to this day, doing whatever they want.

Ok, I have enough of this, so where was this mute button...

I may be wrong but I think the word "undermined" should have read "underestimated". Noone here is defending Russia, but this forum does tend towards Russia sux lol sometimes. We can find buckets of videos of zek lemmings getting barbequed but Russia has a big army and there are pockets of competence (see the RUSI report). We should be mindful of that. 

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, Grigb said:

This is precisely why I have yet to accept KIA - RU were poking around. It appears that there has been a secret directive for some months to plant dead bodies at locations of recent famous battles. It appears that RU opted to minimize propaganda damage from UKR attacks by exaggerated UKR losses.

The best example is the RDK raid, in which RU literally placed and videotaped six dead bodies before spreading images and videos across the RU segment of the internet. 

Obviously, I may be mistaken. But we must all recognize that we can no longer trust images and videos taken in areas where RU were poking around. 

Yes, since the RDK raid fakes I'm taking an extra careful look at Russia showing casualties.  They have, since the start of the war, been leveraging the fact that both sides use the same hardware to show destroyed Russian vehicles as Ukrainian.  They did this again just yesterday (or the day before?) with a destroyed T-80.

In this case I don't think they faked anything as they only sent a couple of guys (2-3) in for a peek in a very hot combat zone.  They likely would not have had the opportunity to do anything elaborate.  MAYBE the intact body was carried in (2-3 guys could do that with some difficulty), but also carrying in two burnt up corpses AND then scorching the ground underneath them to be consistent with bodies burning in place?  Not very likely.

Plus, it is reasonable to assume that the Ukrainians far away from the front are operating with imperfect knowledge.  It is also reasonable to assume that the ATGM strikes caused some KIAs.  Anybody playing CMBS would be rather shocked to *not* have KIAs from a solid ATGM hit.

All of that said, I thank you for reminding everybody that we have to be very careful about Russian "evidence".  Russia is desperate to tell a fantasy story, that is for sure.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Meanwhile in the war criminal camp...

 

 

I guess the Ukrainians also bribed the EU Parliament as well.  Those crafty Ukrainians... what will they think of next!

Steve

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Do not get me wrong, this is all bad and the abandon option is used far more often.  As to unmanned systems, definitely a good idea but as far as I know heavy unmanned breaching systems really don’t exists.

Apparently there is one design, created of by an enterprising Ukrainian farmer. Who else?

 

[DesertFox]

Im really interested to learn which european country will be replacing its tanks with Merkava, to sent its own tanks to Ukraine.

Hundreds of old Merkava tanks on the way to Europe: all the details about the historic deal

40 years after they entered service in the IDF, hundreds of Merkava tanks of the 2nd and 3rd marks are expected to be sold to two foreign countries, including for the first time to a European country. The tanks went out of use in recent years, remaining in warehouses - but after the start of the war in Ukraine and the renewed demand for armored war vehicles, they were tested and found to be suitable enough to sell

https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/skugq500p2

https://www-ynet-co-il.translate.goog/news/article/skugq500p2?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=de&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true

[panzermartin]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Are we sure we observe the same genocidal, simple war of conquest? If you are so afraid of "undermining" Russia, here is you adress of complains and source of all of the fuss : http://www.en.kremlin.ru/contacts

You are not rightfully criticizning, you get whacked by arguments and are now doing another virtue signalling, while clearly parroting Putin propaganda matrix you saw on some Russian forum. And you don't even get that- that's btw. how propaganda of this type works. Its victims are always people who think of themselves as freethinkers, outside constraints of mainstream media, but who are in fact mentally not equipped to properly build their own worldview that would be anchored in both political realism and some basic ethics. Ukrainians and "American overlords" guilty of Larissa rail accident, USA building bases to "force" others to watch Micky Mouse, poor bombed Nazis in WWII etc. These are the same, unmistakeable symptoms of reducing everything toward symetristic bull*hit.

I am more and more inclined to believe that if world in 1939 would have internet and contrarian keyboard warriors, whole Europe would be foocked royally, divided between Brown and Red totalitarian empires up to this day, doing whatever they want.

Ok, I have enough of this, so where was this mute button...

I could reply unleashing the dangerous isotope Copium that shocked some people here , but I forgive you for falling so low and calling me a Putin propagandist, since you are clearly in rant mode 

[panzermartin]

31 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I may be wrong but I think the word "undermined" should have read "underestimated". Noone here is defending Russia, but this forum does tend towards Russia sux lol sometimes. We can find buckets of videos of zek lemmings getting barbequed but Russia has a big army and there are pockets of competence (see the RUSI report). We should be mindful of that. 

There, thank you. I think I can't edit to avoid misunderstanding. Undermining was meant for Underestimating /bashing /ridiculing 

Apologies 

[Harmon Rabb]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I guess the Ukrainians also bribed the EU Parliament as well.  Those crafty Ukrainians... what will they think of next!

Steve

For over a year Solovyov has been saying that the Ukrainian government are just puppets of the United States. Now it has been revealed that the real puppet masters are really in Ukraine and the United States government are really the puppets.

I am so confused! Don't think I'm smart enough to understand the Solovyov show.

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, panzermartin said:

For the record, the commissar comment wasn't for anyone else but Grigb exclusively for his strict suggestion to Butschi to stop supporting his "friend" his "lie" and his bold points with phrases like "end of story", meaning he had absolutely the last word. 

Based on the way you were presenting yourself, the slap down was not uncalled for.  You set the conditions for the response, NOT the rest of us.  Which gets us to the reason for this mess you caused...

7 hours ago, panzermartin said:

I'm sorry I have been annoying and contrarian, it's not from a caprice but out of my desire for "justice" and "balance".

Tux detailed things very well, but I'll make this point explicit and directed at you with my Moderator hat firmly on my head.

There is a huge difference between coming into a room full of people who are having an informed exchange of ideas and screaming insults about their intelligence, integrity, reasoning skills, etc. and coming into the same room and engaging in the discussion with productive debate behavior.  This is how you started out the whole mess we're sorting through:

" Sometimes I'm surprised by the amount of copium in this forum. "

Followed by a distorted and not intellectually honest assessment of the discussion that we were having at the time.  Yet people still (largely) engaged your criticisms as if you had presented them without all the bluster and high handed theatrics.  The responses proved your characterization of both the topic and the people engaged in it as being highly flawed.  Then you got all huffy because it was clear you stepped on a land mine you yourself laid out, making your initial argument weaker with every post you made.

 

7 hours ago, panzermartin said:

 I think one of the most dangerous things in society is being collectively in agreement or sometimes fixation to a certain point, even when there is not enough evidence to prove us 100% right. And how could that be, given the fog of war and the propaganda from both sides?

Nobody is saying they know everything or even that they might say something today and it turns out to be incorrect.  The fact that you THINK this is what is going on here shows a very bad and misplaced bias on your part.

7 hours ago, panzermartin said:

I feel our Europe is in deep trouble with this war, and constantly undermining Russia is a dangerous habit I won't support here, but point taken I will try to be more constructive in the future.

(I believe you did not intend "undermining Russia" but "underestimating Russia", because there is a huge difference).

For sure we should NEVER underestimate Russia.  It has continually surpassed expectations for its ability to keep this war going.  However, it is just as dangerous to attribute strength without a basis for it.

Here is how you should have handle yourself:

1.  It should be clear after 2500+ pages of this thread that the group is interested in better understanding this war, not blindly cheering on the Ukrainians to victory (though for sure that is the end result we wish to see).  It is completely possible that people might be letting their views of each side cloud judgement.  IT IS CORRECT TO POINT THIS OUT WHEN THERE IS A REAL REASON TO DO SO.  If you think people are jumping to conclusions about something with weak/substandard evidence, all you need to do is state that pretty much exactly as I just wrote.  Do not insert dramatics, do not try and position yourself as a savior.

2.  Explicitly state your reasons for casting doubt on the discussion as it is, not as you imagine it to be.  Challenge specific statements by people you think are making overly broad statements or conclusions.  Do not be vague about the reasons for your challenge, even if it is simply to say "I do not see the evidence to support your conclusion, even though I do not have counter evidence to offer".

3.  Accept that you might not be as informed as you think and that the arguments are, in fact, far more solid than you initially thought.  Maybe you don't understand how to interpret evidence as well as the people you are questioning.  Maybe they have simply skipped over some basics because they have elevated levels of knowledge and didn't see the need to make basic level arguments.

4.  People should be free to explore ideas here, even if they are contrarian in nature.  However, people who make bad arguments and STICK to them when properly challenged, are not helping make the conversations here better.  In reality it does the exact opposite, which is why there's a low tolerance for "whataboutisms" and other bad debate behavior.

That about covers it.

Steve