How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

A real person shot dead falls over like a log.

[...]

And there is only one muzzle flash but both of them fall down.

(Do rifles even make that kind of muzzle flash? I don't remember seeing it on other daylight videos...)

 

1) only if it's a central nervous system hit.  Firearms aren't death wands; even someone shot in the heart may have a few seconds of volitional action. Or someone shot in a limb may think they're dead and just, as you say, fall like a log (I would say sack of potatoes, a log is rigid and persons in the condition we're discussing just collapse).

2) a) one flash: assuming 30FPS video, the "shutter" will be open for a fraction of 1/30s - in bright light, without ND filters, perhaps 1/1000s, so muzzle flashes are most often not caught on video.  Even in low light, 1/60s would be the shortest shutter speed, and muzzle flashes again are often not caught - they have a very short duration.

2) b) it's a bit surprising.  Military ammo contains flash suppressants - but maybe this was a bad batch. Also, the lack of clear shadow in the video suggests either highly overcast conditions or dusk / dawn, so flash would be seen more easily  than in full sun.

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, acrashb said:

1) only if it's a central nervous system hit.  Firearms aren't death wands; even someone shot in the heart may have a few seconds of volitional action. Or someone shot in a limb may think they're dead and just, as you say, fall like a log (I would say sack of potatoes, a log is rigid and persons in the condition we're discussing just collapse).

2) a) one flash: assuming 30FPS video, the "shutter" will be open for a fraction of 1/30s - in bright light, without ND filters, perhaps 1/1000s, so muzzle flashes are most often not caught on video.  Even in low light, 1/60s would be the shortest shutter speed, and muzzle flashes again are often not caught - they have a very short duration.

2) b) it's a bit surprising.  Military ammo contains flash suppressants - but maybe this was a bad batch. Also, the lack of clear shadow in the video suggests either highly overcast conditions or dusk / dawn, so flash would be seen more easily  than in full sun.

Thanks. The shutter speed could explain the (lack of) muzzle flash.

About the central nervous system hit, I think read somewhere that a centre body hit by a high power rifle will tend to knock the person out instantaneously because a shockwave propagates through the arteries and delivers a knockout punch the brain from inside? Not lethal in itself, but supposed to make people lose consciousness immediately.

Maybe I should add that I'm quite ready to believe that Russia uses such blocking detachments, and that they would shoot their own guys - I'm just wondering whether this particular video is staged or not.

[Haiduk]

This was found on captured Russian positions in Zaporizhzhia oblast %)

But it could be decoys for counter-sniping

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

I guess it's already been said here, but I'll say it again. Ukraine would certainly benefit from better air support during their current counter-offensive.  Too bad it took so long for their Western partners to admit that.

https://t.me/ministry_of_defense_ua/7680
 

Quote

"Ramstein": comment of the Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov:

First of all, we expect a similar level of support from our partners.

During the meeting, we will discuss the details of the "aircraft coalition" . In this case, we are talking about the training of pilots and not only pilots, but also our technicians and engineers who will be engaged in aircraft maintenance. Because it is a very complex system. Subject matters will be discussed with the teams of the defense ministries of the Netherlands, Denmark, the USA and other countries that have joined this coalition.

I included representatives of our Air Force in the Ukrainian delegation. The commander of the Air Force, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleschuk, has singled out his responsible officers who supervise the training of pilots and logistical issues.

Then - the rest. Everything related to  air defense, ammunition shells, artillery . Our priorities have not changed. This war is a war of resources. Resources means not only weapons, but also the ability to repair and maintain them and everything related to this. Therefore, the opening of various types of hubs for repairing and equipping equipment is an important issue for us. Both on the territory of Ukraine, together with partners, and in friendly border countries.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

55 minutes ago, pintere said:

Oh for sure, but if I recall Russian doctrine correctly they would commit those reserves only when a frontline penetration has happened. Therefore Ukraine attacking around Tokmak won’t necessarily force the Russians to commit their reserves unless they’re actually able to achieve a penetration there, which they’ve so far been unable to do.

Sure, once the breach occurs the reserves should counterattack. However, they will be used up even before penetration for loss replenishment/rotation of worn up units.

This is the reverse of the situation just over a year ago, before the Great HIMARsing^TM, when Russians were attacking mainly with artillery and Ukrainians were defending mainly with infantry. Ukrainians suffered tremendous losses not in counterattacks, but in static positions, just replacing units badly shot up with new ones.

[DesertFox]

Yep, nice one.

 

 

[cesmonkey]

This former general's view:

 

[cesmonkey]

This former general's view:

 

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yep, nice one

 

Tendar should read the source more carefully. That's about strike on locomotive depo, but destroying of ONE locomotive. And this is by words of local resistance source

[Elmar Bijlsma]

A headline writer for TIME had himself a bit of a moment:

I am pretty sure that spot in the nation's history is already taken by another event.

[DesertFox]

Just now, Haiduk said:

Tendar should read the source more carefully. That's about strike on locomotive depo, but destroying of ONE locomotive. And this is by words of local resistance source

Usually he's reliable. Well every bit counts.

[Lethaface]

22 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This UKR serviceman probably is CM player % )

Combat Mission in reality

F...k, f...k, of course

I hope people are intact, the "hard" is a s...t

By the way, a participant of this episode claims losses were 2 KIA and several WIA, other troops successfully withdrew. 

 

 

Maybe it was alraedy posted, but this video look like might be from this incident:

 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

 

Maybe it was alraedy posted, but this video look like might be from this incident:

 

This is a guy of 47th brigade, who filmed it. 

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Lethaface]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is a guy of 47th brigade, who filmed it. 

 

Thanks (direct source always better  ).
At least it seems they didn't take too much casualties, apart from vehicle losses. Bradleys/Leos are replaceable. Hopefully they can get re-geared soon. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

radleys/Leos are replaceable. Hopefully they can get re-geared soon. 

Bradleys yes, but production of Leos is so low, it will take ages. In particular the specialist engineer variants.

[Haiduk]

It's claimed these patches were taken in Novomayorske - the village on far eastrn flank of V.Novosilka salient. There is no firm information yet, this village is liberated

Interesting writings on the patches:

The one with Stalin "There wasn't this fu...g s...t in my time"

The one with green beast: "Orcs are coming"

The black one with long writing: "I don't order international passport, I'm awainting untill Russia will be everywhere"

Also chest straps of captain and senior lieutenant are present.

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Lethaface]

12 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Bradleys yes, but production of Leos is so low, it will take ages. In particular the specialist engineer variants.

True they will be difficult to replace, but still material as opposed to the soldiers operating them.
And of course while not same as the Leo2R, ersatz breaching vehicles based of whatever heavy AFV or (up)armoured bulldozer around can perform the task more or less and won't be as difficult to produce.

Edit: not sure if all those vehicles are already destroyed in the meantime, or if some of them are still salvageable.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Lethaface

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

"I reconstructed and geolocated the route and losses of one of the two columns of the 47th mechanized brigade. Of course, I also used the work of other OSINT people, but many of the given locations were inaccurate and the place of the destruction of M2 and L2A6 was wrong. Freeze frames from movies added to the orientation of what was where.

This column had a difficult fate: it was surrounded by drone-corrected artillery 3x, it defeated 2 groups of mines, and finally, while overcoming the second one, it fell under the fire of Ka-52's Wihr ATGMs and ATGMs as well as artillery. Really KUDOS to the soldiers of this battalion because they went through hell that day.

P.S. location and slides from the second (west) column will be uploaded later. This is the one whose end was supposedly photoshopped."

Going 7 kilometers under drone-corrected artillery through two minefields and then getting waked by Ka-52s

source: https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1668251143552606214

 

 

[Lethaface]

2 hours ago, pintere said:

That will be an interesting read. It would be pretty unimpressive if that’s true…

The question is whether the Russians have the time to only commit the reserves after a frontline penetration has occurred, or that they have to commit them before the actual event in order to be there in time to prevent breakthrough.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Thats fake. Not worth bothering. Here:

 

 

I read through the debunking discussion last night and found it to be very unconvincing.  The Leopard that looks like it was pasted into place is CLEARLY visible in one of the drone videos.  The doubts over the zig-zag path vs. the straight pathwas just wrong, I mean relaly wrong (zig-zag was going around already destroyed vehicles).  Some other stuff was likewise unconvincing.

The primary flaw in most of the doubting comments is they don’t seem to understand this wasn’t part of just one action.  There were several attempts, perhaps hours apart, and so that produces a very different picture than one big push.  The doubters also don’t seem to have played Combat Mission, otherwise they’d know how unpredictable individual drivers are.

The doubters are not wrong to try and poke holes in this because the Russians are not terribly reliable as a source   However, there is no need to obessess over it because it’s no longer relevant.  That’s the difference between this and Vuhledar.  The destruction there was the end of it.  They had nothing else going on.  Here?  Plenty going on.

But it really doens’t matter in the big picture.  As has been said many times over, the fact that the Russians have not had anything other than this to crow about for the whole week is very telling.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Thanks. The shutter speed could explain the (lack of) muzzle flash.

About the central nervous system hit, I think read somewhere that a centre body hit by a high power rifle will tend to knock the person out instantaneously because a shockwave propagates through the arteries and delivers a knockout punch the brain from inside? Not lethal in itself, but supposed to make people lose consciousness immediately.

Which is the criticism of the “intermediary” rounds used by AKs and NATO standard rifles.  “Stopping power” is generally what this referred to as.  These smaller rounds do not have the kinetic power (I forget the correct term) that the larger rounds still used by MGs has.

Also, let’s not forget body armor.  The whole point of it is to shrug off hits.

Steve

[Beleg85]

19 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

"I reconstructed and geolocated the route and losses of one of the two columns of the 47th mechanized brigade. Of course, I also used the work of other OSINT people, but many of the given locations were inaccurate and the place of the destruction of M2 and L2A6 was wrong. Freeze frames from movies added to the orientation of what was where.

This column had a difficult fate: it was surrounded by drone-corrected artillery 3x, it defeated 2 groups of mines, and finally, while overcoming the second one, it fell under the fire of Ka-52's Wihr ATGMs and ATGMs as well as artillery. Really KUDOS to the soldiers of this battalion because they went through hell that day.

P.S. location and slides from the second (west) column will be uploaded later. This is the one whose end was supposedly photoshopped."

I highly recommend looking at this Wolski's reconstruction of events, regardless of various quirks of his reporting here he made a very good job comparing data and geolocating. They seem to find traces of 2nd and 3rd column, too. Hard battles were there, undoubtedly.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

Thanks (direct source always better  ).
At least it seems they didn't take too much casualties, apart from vehicle losses. Bradleys/Leos are replaceable. Hopefully they can get re-geared soon. 

One of the guys who evacuated claimed 2x KIA and 6x WIA for the entire engagement.  The Bradleys clearly keep its passengers very safe compared to Sovet/Russian IFVs.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

One of the guys who evacuated claimed 2x KIA and 6x WIA for the entire engagement.  The Bradleys clearly keep its passengers very safe compared to Sovet/Russian IFVs.

Steve

Bradleys is probably the best western IFV to lose. The USA will be able to replace them quickly and in large volumes. Also great crew survivability.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Sure, once the breach occurs the reserves should counterattack. However, they will be used up even before penetration for loss replenishment/rotation of worn up units..

Yup, this is what I’ve been banging on about for months now, and even more so now that the battle has started.

The problem with the Russian strategy for defending this line is that it doesn’t have enough forces to adequatley man the front, nor does it have the kind of reserves (quality and quantity) needed to shore up breaches.  Not to mention conducting competent, efficient counter attacks.  They are probably already finding themselves making difficult allocation decisions.

Due to the circumstances, Russia has had to choose to either defend its first line or pull back to the second line without much of a fight.  It seems in several places the defending units just picked up their rifles and ran as fast as they could.  In a couple of others there were small counter attacks that were temporarily successful against Ukrainian recon or advanced attacking groups, but then ultimately had to retreat.  In only a few instances have we so far seen evidence of a mechanized response by Russia and that one (Russian Marines) seems to have gone very badly for them.

My gut tells me that the Russians thought they could hold the first line a LOT longer than they have been able to.  At the very least the bloggers thought it would take more for the Ukrainians to make advances.

Steve