How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

16 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Thats fake. Not worth bothering. Here:

 

 

and here is a video:

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

allegedly a video of the Russian blocking units (zagradotryads) working.

 

source: https://2ch.hk/po/res/54562197.html#54563125 and

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

and here is a video:

 

I know that vid. Doesn't make it more believable for me either. As already mentioned, fake or not, if they have nothing better to show for the last 4-5 days than this "event" from 6th/7th june from 100 angles, all seems to be going fine for UA. And no, I don't think the UA will not suffer losses. Indeed I expect around 30% for the spear brigades, but this particular 2nd set of pics and the vid just don't look legit to me.

[The_MonkeyKing]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I know that vid. Doesn't make it more believable for me either. As already mentioned, fake or not, if they have nothing better to show for the last 4-5 days than this "event" from 6th/7th june from 100 angles, all seems to be going fine for UA. And no, I don't think the UA will not suffer losses. Indeed I expect around 30% for the spear brigades, but this particular 2nd set of pics and the vid just don't look legit to me.

Agreed on the military conclusions.  

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Failed 47th mechanized brigade(?) offensive mapped

From what I noted, the 47th Brigade does have M2s, but I haven't seen any information that they are using Leopard 2s. They would rather have M-55s. However, the 1st Armored Brigade would also be in the area as well as the 3rd Armored Brigade. It would therefore probably be elements of the 1st Armored Brigade (which has Leopard 2A6s) which would be attached to the 47th Brigade. Just a guess.

[Beleg85]

54 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I know that vid. Doesn't make it more believable for me either. As already mentioned, fake or not, if they have nothing better to show for the last 4-5 days than this "event" from 6th/7th june from 100 angles, all seems to be going fine for UA. And no, I don't think the UA will not suffer losses. Indeed I expect around 30% for the spear brigades, but this particular 2nd set of pics and the vid just don't look legit to me.

They do roughly what we did at Vuhledar -looking at spectacular remnants of failed attack. Given these are much-fetishized weapon sets, it would be strange if they didn't, frankly.

Video from one of Leo2's with big fat balkankreutz on turret. Wolski geolocated it to be the one that was later recorded by russian drones.

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Ukrainians in Storozheve after the Russians apparently withdrew, on foot

 

The third video is old for 7-8th of June, probably from Neskuchne, when UKR forces first time seized the village

[Beleg85]

Local muscovite counterattack stopped, by 65Brig,  that apparently entered combat. Somewhere on western flank close to 128 Mountain brig. [note, he geolocated it again to Robotyne now on central part of frontline]

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[Beleg85]

Very interesting, it must be one of older counterattacks several days old:

 

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I wonder if Ukraine can dry up Dnipro-river with other dams downstream from Dnipro-city for enough time to enable raiding and harassment operations from light forces?

 

 Some our "armchair generals" already plan such things - to attack on the section Dniprorudne - Vasylivka, when the water will go further and the bottom will dry. 

But historically this wasn't flat place. This was a so-called "Great Meadow" - homeland of Zaporozhian Cossaks. The region of southands small rivers, creecks, tiny lakes - it in more modern times called "Dnipro plavni" - the meadows, which flooded after snow melting. 

Locals already are finding old artefacts on the bottom of reservoir. After the war it will be holiday for "dark archeologists" 

Old pistole or sawn-off rifle

Likely WWII German graves washed out by water

Wrecked vessel

The place of old bridge, I can't understand where it can be... There wasn't bridge between Nikopol and Kamyanka, only a ferry. Germans tried to build, but hadn't a time, only several concrete pierces were seen from water. 

And here is a fragment of German map for 1942 how looked this place, when water reservoir doesn't exist

 

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Oh yeah...one could write it was his daughter's death that mentally broke him, if he wasn't crazy from the start. I gueass katechon arrival on this earth will need to wait.

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

37 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Very interesting, it must be one of older counterattacks several days old:

 

Russian TG RuVesnaZ claims they now have trown to counter attack units of 127th MRD, which with aviation support push off UKR from Makarivka and Storozhove.

And in the same time other Russian TG channel wrote UKR troops push SE of Staromlynivka and aviation doesn't support because bad weather %)

Edited June 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

allegedly a video of the Russian blocking units (zagradotryads) working.

 

source: https://2ch.hk/po/res/54562197.html#54563125 and

I don't think this is genuine.

First of all, I think a real blocking detachment would start by shouting to stop, then fire in the air, and only then fire at the fleeing troops. Their purpose is to stop troops fleeing, not to kill them if they don't have to.

But ok, even if they are extremely cruel and incompetent, they would likely not rush towards them and push them over and only then shoot them while on the ground or while they are running back to the front lines. If they wanted to shoot them, they could do so from a distance.

Also, the way the guys fall over even after being "shot". A real person shot dead falls over like a log. Both of those guys stick out their hands to cushion the fall. And there is only one muzzle flash but both of them fall down.

(Do rifles even make that kind of muzzle flash? I don't remember seeing it on other daylight videos...)

I could be wrong of course, but to me it doesn't seem right.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Haiduk]

UKR artillery hit at least one T-72 on southern outskirt of Robotyne village. But more interesting here a look of multiple fortified positions

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[pintere]

So from what we’ve seen so far, it looks like the focus of Ukrainian activity is just north of Tokmak and just south of Velyka Novosilka, respectively. We have video evidence of at least a few failed Ukrainian thrusts on the first axis, but several villages captured on the second.

Given the state of Russian fortifications…

 

… I’d always thought before the offensive began that Ukraine would be best placed to avoid the Tokmak area (as fortified as it is) and instead try to pierce the Russian defenses further east, with the goal to reach the sea around Berdyansk. It is a bit of a longer distance to get there, but in doing so Ukraine can avoid the much more extensive fortifications further west and also cut off a bigger chunk of Russian held territory.

There‘s been talk of Ukraine pulling another surprise for the Russians either at Kherson or around Kupyansk. Assuming that Ukraine really is aiming to cut the land bridge this summer, I’d probably abandon offensive actions around Tokmak (or at least ones supported by valuable western equipment) and instead attack all across the frontline from Novozlatipol in the west (just north of Fedorivka) to Volodymyrivka in the east (just east of Vuhledar). It seems that the Russians only have one major defensive line in that entire sector, and the Ukrainians have almost reached it in one location. 

Bust through that line and then make for the sea between Berdyansk and Mariupol. Far better than trying to crack three successive fortified lines.

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, pintere said:

… I’d always thought before the offensive began that Ukraine would be best placed to avoid the Tokmak area (as fortified as it is) and instead try to pierce the Russian defenses further east, with the goal to reach the sea around Berdyansk.

Then Russians will throw all available reserves to "further east" direction. Thus, we have to attack on several directions and cause distracting of Russian reserves to other problem places

[Haiduk]

Officially confirmed liberation of Novodarivka village on western flank of V.Novosilka salient. This happened as far as on 4th of June by forces of elements of 23rd mech.brigade and 110th TD brigade

 

[Beleg85]

37 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian TG RuVesnaZ claims they now have trown to counter attack units of 127th MRD, which with aviation support push off UKR from Makarivka and Storozhove.

And in the same time other Russian TG channel wrote UKR troops push SE of Staromlynivka and aviation doesn't support because bad weather %)

Yup, definitelly we observe some ping-pong between the sides over captured settlements, against the expectations of some Russian TGs who wanted "no step backward" in 1943 style.  Condemnation of several fleeing units like Kaskad also points they were mean to die on the spot.

Also cautiosuly judging by scarce material we have (and complains of beformentioned) positions are not fortified nor supported to level they expected- mainly dense minefields, shallow trenches with earth dugouts. Maybe when Ukrainians reach the main line it will change.

[Haiduk]

UKR FPV drone probably could strike escaping Russian T-80 near Staromayorske village on V.Novosilka salient - it between Makarivka and Urozhaine.

 

[Hapless]

16 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't think this is genuine.

It is a weird thing to capture on drone footage, unless the blocking detachment is using drones to find and follow friendly troops that run.

Source provenance aside (looks like it's been taken down now, which is interesting in and of itself); the behaviour seems pretty coherent to me:

The blockers might be screaming at them to stop all the time- that's not going to be clear without audio.
The runners are... running, so they have to physically confront them.
Then the blockers fire in the air.
The two closest guys try to run, then the blockers shoot them.
Not as clear if they start shooting everyone else, but it's on the cards.

Worth noting that the two guys who get shot are themselves armed: that's a real danger for the blocking troops. Obviously they weren't taking any chances.

[Bulletpoint]

8 minutes ago, Hapless said:

The blockers might be screaming at them to stop all the time- that's not going to be clear without audio.
The runners are... running, so they have to physically confront them.
Then the blockers fire in the air.
The two closest guys try to run, then the blockers shoot them.
Not as clear if they start shooting everyone else, but it's on the cards.

Worth noting that the two guys who get shot are themselves armed: that's a real danger for the blocking troops. Obviously they weren't taking any chances.

Very true that they could have been hollering at them for all we know.

It just seems there's only one shot fired - going by the single muzzle flash. I'm not an expert on guns, so I'm not sure if that flash looks genuine, and if there should either be no flashes or two flashes for two guys allegedly shot.

If it's a genuine video, then they were taking a big risk by going out and physically blocking them.

[pintere]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Then Russians will throw all available reserves to "further east" direction. Thus, we have to attack on several directions and cause distracting of Russian reserves to other problem places

Oh for sure, but if I recall Russian doctrine correctly they would commit those reserves only when a frontline penetration has happened. Therefore Ukraine attacking around Tokmak won’t necessarily force the Russians to commit their reserves unless they’re actually able to achieve a penetration there, which they’ve so far been unable to do.

The sector of front with just one defensive belt is 75 km wide. That’s plenty enough to launch attacks on multiple axes, and if anything the Russian reserves will be strained more if they have to deal with multiple penetrations of the only fortified line they have in the area.

Of course, I’m sure the Ukrainian generals went through all these scenarios multiple times during the past half year. I trust that they’re pursuing the best course of action.

[Haiduk]

Kamikadze UAVs attacked the train in Belgorod oblast. As a result locomotive was slightly damaged and derailed as well as 15 empty railway carriages

 

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, pintere said:

Oh for sure, but if I recall Russian doctrine correctly they would commit those reserves only when a frontline penetration has happened. Therefore Ukraine attacking around Tokmak won’t necessarily force the Russians to commit their reserves unless they’re actually able to achieve a penetration there, which they’ve so far been unable to do.

The sector of front with just one defensive belt is 75 km wide. That’s plenty enough to launch attacks on multiple axes, and if anything the Russian reserves will be strained more if they have to deal with multiple penetrations of the only fortified line they have in the area.

Of course, I’m sure the Ukrainian generals went through all these scenarios multiple times during the past half year. I trust that they’re pursuing the best course of action.

I will translate later big article of Mashovets about this. In short Russians ALREADY moved most of own reserves.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[pintere]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I will translate later big article of Mashovets about this. In short Russians ALREADY moved most of own reserves.

That will be an interesting read. It would be pretty unimpressive if that’s true…