How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

54 minutes ago, JonS said:

The reasons why are both fairly obvious and well thrashed over: making the river impassable both upstream and downstream of the dam for ... 4 to 6 weeks (by the time the mud and silt becomes trafficable).

Yes. It just seems like a short term gain for a long term loss.. after those weeks of flooding and mud pass, surely the Dnepr river will be much smaller and easier to cross.

I still believe the Russians did it, but I could see the benefit for the Ukrainians too, as it would make their offensive easier for them later.

Also, it would remove the dam as a latent threat that the Russians had on their hands to use at will at any time if Ukraine attacked in the south.

Maybe Ukraine didn't intend for the whole dam to be destroyed but only to knock a hole in it to deflate the lake behind it in a controlled way, and then the Russians decided to blow the whole thing.

This is of course all speculation.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[DesertFox]

Ahhh, 120mm Silverbullets...

 

 

[JonS]

38 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Maybe Ukraine didn't intend for the whole dam to be destroyed but only to knock a hole in it to deflate the lake behind it in a controlled way, and then the Russians decided to blow the whole thing.

It is very hard to knock a small hole in a dam and not have that small hole become a very big hole in very short order.

Also, this whole episode is reminiscent of the shenanigans with the Roer River dams.

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, Heirloom_Tomato said:

This pipeline provides ammonia for fertilizer. 

This pipeline in present time doesn't transport ammonia from Russia to Odesa, where located large chemical plant, involved in accumulation and supply of ammonium on world markets. But some remains of ammonia still inside the pipe and can be dangerous. 

Russia demands renewing of pipeline work and tried to tie this with prolongation of "grain deal", involving to this a lobby of African and some Asian countries, depending of fertilizers, using ammonium as productin component. 

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

This pipeline in present time doesn't transport ammonia from Russia to Odesa, where located large chemical plant, involved in accumulation and supply of ammonium on world markets. But some remains of ammonia still inside the pipe and can be dangerous. 

Russia demands renewing of pipeline work and tried to tie this with prolongation of "grain deal", involving to this a lobby of African and some Asian countries, depending of fertilizers, using ammonium as productin component. 

Unfortunately some leaks of the pipeline seem to be there due to the shelling

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

 

Ukrainians seem to be as eager to drive into mines as were the Russians in the winter.

Yes I know, all the regular caveats apply, but still hurts my hopium-filled brain to see this from the Ukrainians.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

22 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

 

If ammonia leaks in the forest, and no one is poisoned, is it still a poison gas?

[hcrof]

13 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

 

Ukrainians seem to be as eager to drive into mines as were the Russians in the winter.

Yes I know, all the regular caveats apply, but still hurts my hopium-filled brain to see this from the Ukrainians.

Painful to watch, but hopefully an mrap will mean the passengers and crew are all ok. I would certainly rather be riding in a maxpro than a BMP over a potential minefield! 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Just now, hcrof said:

Painful to watch, but hopefully an mrap will mean the passengers and crew are all ok. I would certainly rather be riding in a maxpro than a BMP over a potential minefield! 

Difficult situation for a Ukrainian force. It is probably a light infantry force equipped only with MRAP vehicles, lacking any demining capacity not to even mention protected mobile demining capacity. Lack of skills and experience in offensive operations makes the situation even worse.

Then this force is given an attack mission in that terrain against fortified positions. 

An offensive operation like this from the western respective should never be conducted with that force.

[Ales Dvorak]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russians are predictable and Ukraine is not stupid.  So, it really isn't surprising that Ukraine correctly determined the dam was going to be blown and to not make any plans based on it remaining intact.

They even made a test.

"Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.

The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/

 

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, JonS said:

I'll take it as read that the Russians deliberately blew the dam. Perhaps not when higher HQ would have preferred, but the intent was there to do it sooner or later.

The reasons why are both fairly obvious and well thrashed over: making the river impassable both upstream and downstream of the dam for ... 4 to 6 weeks (by the time the mud and silt becomes trafficable). And that means the Russians can thin out their forces there and concentrate more further north. At least they can do that for 4-6 weeks. That time limit would be why the Russian high command might have preferred it to occur later rather than sooner.

But there is another effect that directly impacts the Ukraine Army: manpower in Ukraine is going to be pretty stretched right now, what with a war, large scale mobilisation, and mass refugee movement out of the country. Which means the only real source right now for HADR right now is ... the army. Any rescuing of civilians and trucks moving them westward and blankets and food are all likely coming directly from the forces prepping for the counter offensive.

This one is really weird.  Making a water obstacle harder cuts both ways, now the UA can also also thin out in this sector because the RA is also not going to be able to threaten it.  As to IDPs, I am wondering how many people were living close to this river to start with as it is essentially a front line?  I am sure there are some but have we seen mass columns of refugees?

Finally, without data on how fast that river is moving it is hard to say just how much harder this stunt made a river crossing operation.  The width of the obstacle just went up and one is seeing more debris but this was likely a ferry crossing operation to begin with - the RA withdrawal but now the UA attacking.  Blowing the dam made defending the RA bank a lot harder as well.  Any minefields they laid on the bank approaches are likely well buried under water and silt, so now ineffective.  Positions would have been moved back (an easy way to see who did this, just track who moved OPs before the explosion - if no one did, it was likely unplanned).  And by blowing the dam you are also redrawing the river in very unpredictable ways.  One could wind up making new viable landing sites.  One thing is certain, the RA was worried about UA action across that river if this was deliberate, and they probably should still be.

Edited June 7, 2023 by The_Capt

[Ultradave]

11 hours ago, Seminole said:

The U.S. withdrawal was subsequent to the unearthing of radioactive material (via Israeli spying) that Iran wouldn’t explain and actively tried to cover up (they bulldozed the site of the ‘carpet warehouse’ before allowing inspectors - wasn’t good enough).
You’re dropping relevant context that I assume not everyone knows.

All very interesting but was not the reason the US withdrew from the agreement. The above had to do with Iran's previous activities, which the whole world knows involved research and development into nuclear weapons. They are supposed to account for all of it, but haven't come completely clean. Acknowledged. They are bad actors and likely always will be.

Before the Prelim JPA, Iran was 3 weeks away from being able to create enough material for one nuclear weapon, and there was worldwide carping to "DO SOMETHING". Hence the Prelim JPA followed by the JCPOA, which pushed that timeline back to one year+.  There are many safeguards in the JCPOA, not the least of which was limiting Iran's stock of enriched U to 300kg. This is only a fraction of what would be required to create even one weapon. Reconfiguring the Arak reactor eliminated their potential source of Pu, probably more important than enrichment restrictions.

Now that the US has withdrawn, Iran has resumed enrichment activities, put more centrifuges in operation, and has some U enriched to 60%. You need 90-ish% for a weapon. But the work required to get from 60% to 90% is much, much less than the work to get TO 60%. So here we are again. Iran is now a couple/three weeks away from amassing enough material for a weapon, should they choose to do so.

The JCPOA was working. Withdrawing from it was stupid, because we are now right back where we were years ago and there is no new agreement in sight. 

Dave

[Beleg85]

There is a tragedy of people still trapped in flooded area unfolding- locals on Russian side are trying to save themselves, but they lack coordination and boats.

 

Meanwhile, an example of Russian patriots who now discovered that they can hurt UA even more by blowing major dams across the country.

Transl. "Why is the situation with the Kachovskaya dam exploding beautiful? Let me explain. In this war, we will always have one main ace to use against the Chocholas. And it's not even a nuclear weapon. It's the dam of the Kiev reservoir. A small, thin bridge that holds millions of tons of water, will immediately flow into Kiev and flush these Augean Stables down the drain. The dam is old, rotten and rusty. It will not withstand many shells. Hundreds of thousands of Kiev citizens, especially those living on the left bank, will most likely die instantly. Kiev will never recover from this catastrophe. "I'm sure it's a time bomb whose clock has already started ticking. We thank the USSR for this ace up our sleeve."

The thought (regarldess of its sheer practicallity) is now being picked up and becoming popular in many of muscovite forums/channels.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

 

Ukrainians seem to be as eager to drive into mines as were the Russians in the winter.

Yes I know, all the regular caveats apply, but still hurts my hopium-filled brain to see this from the Ukrainians.

I have been pulled away and will be for the next couple weeks but if anyone can take a hard look at these videos (and there will be more), keep an eye out, and look closely for RA indirect and direct fires.  From what I can see, this minefield was not being covered by RA fires (but I could be wrong, there could be ATGM and PGM). Minefields not effectively covered by fire are actually good news on the larger picture because it means the defender does not have enough troop density to do it, and cannot react fast enough for counter actions.  

Again, it is not just about what is there, it is also about what is not there but should be.

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

All very interesting but was not the reason the US withdrew from the agreement. The above had to do with Iran's previous activities, which the whole world knows involved research and development into nuclear weapons. They are supposed to account for all of it, but haven't come completely clean. Acknowledged. They are bad actors and likely always will be.

Before the Prelim JPA, Iran was 3 weeks away from being able to create enough material for one nuclear weapon, and there was worldwide carping to "DO SOMETHING". Hence the Prelim JPA followed by the JCPOA, which pushed that timeline back to one year+.  There are many safeguards in the JCPOA, not the least of which was limiting Iran's stock of enriched U to 300kg. This is only a fraction of what would be required to create even one weapon. Reconfiguring the Arak reactor eliminated their potential source of Pu, probably more important than enrichment restrictions.

Now that the US has withdrawn, Iran has resumed enrichment activities, put more centrifuges in operation, and has some U enriched to 60%. You need 90-ish% for a weapon. But the work required to get from 60% to 90% is much, much less than the work to get TO 60%. So here we are again. Iran is now a couple/three weeks away from amassing enough material for a weapon, should they choose to do so.

The JCPOA was working. Withdrawing from it was stupid, because we are now right back where we were years ago and there is no new agreement in sight. 

Dave

Dave, brilliant nuclear analysis (I do not even want to know what your hourly is) as always, but you are talking to a ghost.  Of course he can still read it from the side…wow, I think you might be the first nuclear medium in history.

[The_MonkeyKing]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I have been pulled away and will be for the next couple weeks but if anyone can take a hard look at these videos (and there will be more), keep an eye out, and look closely for RA indirect and direct fires.  From what I can see, this minefield was not being covered by RA fires (but I could be wrong, there could be ATGM and PGM). Minefields not effectively covered by fire are actually good news on the larger picture because it means the defender does not have enough troop density to do it, and cannot react fast enough for counter actions.  

Again, it is not just about what is there, it is also about what is not there but should be.

I have noted the same. 

Footage coming out from Russians this week has mostly been Ukrainian troops driving to mines under sparse indirect fire.

Same case for most footage coming from Ukrainian offensives around Bakhmut in the recent weeks. No significant indirect fires. 

Also, analysts from War on the Rocks and ISW say most defensive positions are covered by 120mm mortar fires. Bigger guns are in reserves.

Edited June 7, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[hcrof]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This one is really weird.  Making a water obstacle harder cuts both ways, now the UA can also also thin out in this sector because the RA is also not going to be able to threaten it.  As to IDPs, I am wondering how many people were living close to this river to start with as it is essentially a front line?  I am sure there are some but have we seen mass columns of refugees?

Finally, without data on how fast that river is moving it is hard to say just how much harder this stunt made a river crossing operation.  The width of the obstacle just went up and one is seeing more debris but this was likely a ferry crossing operation to begin with - the RA withdrawal but now the UA attacking.  Blowing the dam made defending the RA bank a lot harder as well.  Any minefields they laid on the bank approaches are likely well buried under water and silt, so now ineffective.  Positions would have been moved back (an easy way to see who did this, just track who moved OPs before the explosion - if no one did, it was likely unplanned).  And by blowing the dam you are also redrawing the river in very unpredictable ways.  One could wind up making new viable landing sites.  One thing is certain, the RA was worried about UA action across that river if this was deliberate, and they probably should still be.

All true, but without the dam you have lost the main road that went across it. So any river crossing will be limited to waterborne logistics where all the infrastructure to manage that has been washed away. Still possible but not as dangerous for Russia. 

[FancyCat]

 

 

[FancyCat]

It's ridiculous to suggest Ukraine would destroy the dam. The negatives for Ukraine are exceeding vast.

 

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

If ammonia leaks in the forest, and no one is poisoned, is it still a poison gas?

Birds? Trees? Mammals?

[Ultradave]

36 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Dave, brilliant nuclear analysis (I do not even want to know what your hourly is) as always, but you are talking to a ghost.  Of course he can still read it from the side…wow, I think you might be the first nuclear medium in history.

I see that now. Hadn’t caught up yet, just responded to his “critique”

in any case, it’s good info to put out for anyone not too familiar with the terms or status of the agreements. Nothing to do with Ukraine off course, so back on the rails again. 

As far as my rate, you get it all for free I’m comfortably retired now and there will be things I’m never allowed to talk about, but a lot I can, because it’s just my evaluation of available info. 
 

Dave. 

[Harmon Rabb]

18 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

Maybe they are playing Orwellian word games because after the flood that I am confident we will get confirmation RU caused, there really is no zoo in that city and 300+ innocent creatures were killed. Another war crime that should be answered for.

 

[rocketman]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

There is a tragedy of people still trapped in flooded area unfolding- locals on Russian side are trying to save themselves, but they lack coordination and boats.

 

Meanwhile, an example of Russian patriots who now discovered that they can hurt UA even more by blowing major dams across the country.

Transl. "Why is the situation with the Kachovskaya dam exploding beautiful? Let me explain. In this war, we will always have one main ace to use against the Chocholas. And it's not even a nuclear weapon. It's the dam of the Kiev reservoir. A small, thin bridge that holds millions of tons of water, will immediately flow into Kiev and flush these Augean Stables down the drain. The dam is old, rotten and rusty. It will not withstand many shells. Hundreds of thousands of Kiev citizens, especially those living on the left bank, will most likely die instantly. Kiev will never recover from this catastrophe. "I'm sure it's a time bomb whose clock has already started ticking. We thank the USSR for this ace up our sleeve."

The thought (regarldess of its sheer practicallity) is now being picked up and becoming popular in many of muscovite forums/channels.

@Haiduk , can you please elaborate a bit about the Kiev dam mentioned above. Is there any way for the ruzzians to destroy it with outside force? Is it even ”fragile”?

[billbindc]

8 hours ago, MikeyD said:

I honestly don't know what that term means. 

In the vernacular, anybody who questions Seymour Hersh.

[DesertFox]