How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Centurian52]

On 5/19/2023 at 3:20 AM, Bulletpoint said:

Not sure what to expect, really, but my gut feeling says those numbers are quite low for a country the size of Russia.

That's how I felt even when they were firing over 100 missiles a day. But then again when I think of a full scale, high intensity, post-industrial revolution war, I think WW2. And obviously nothing in this war has been on the scale of WW2. I think people who are used to Iraq and Afghanistan (2001-2021) have the opposite reaction, and think that the scale of the fighting and casualties are mind numbingly massive. I suppose the reality is that this war is utterly medium.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Centurian52

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, beardiebloke said:

 

Not only will they need to figure out how to defeat the .. um... Russian Legion (is that what they're called?).  The usual methods will destroy these towns completely.  And what happens to the civilians?  Can they flee south to Ukraine?  Will they get across to the north without their own side shooting them?  I know there is a lot said about Russian false flag ops taking civilian lives but this wouldn't be a one-off, localised event.

Column of buses from Belgorod was spotted on the way to Graivoron. Probably Russian volunteers will give opportunity to locals to evacuate, but as write local TGs, most of locals, who had a cars already fled on own wheels. 

Russian aviation made several airstrikes on outskirts of seized villages. 

Russian milbloggers assess "sabateurs" forces up to batatlion with tank platoon. In Kozinka reportedly 80 of troops with 2 tanks and 2 armored vehicles (RVC has Max Pro on video)  

Crash of Mi-8 near Prokhorovka not confirmed - emenrgency services arrived on place, but didn't found anythiong. Reportedly this information shared teenager %) 

Some of Russian milbloggers claims that objective of operation is capturing of arsenal in 9 km NE from Graivoron, where allegedly were moved several 203 mm and 240 mm tactical nukes, which Russia though to use during UKR offensive on Kupiansk in 2022, but this plan was rejected. Charges allegedly still in this arsenal and GUR also made a statement today that Russia now is evacuating charges to more safe place. 

4 km on the map to arsenal is from Golovchino settlement, next behing Graivoron. Russians claimed Golovchino also was under shelling of UKR arty. 

Edited May 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[MOS:96B2P]

@Beleg85   It was from Haiduk's post below. But I might have misunderstood or maybe the entire unit did not cross the border? I took it to mean the units were x kilometers away from the border and into Russia. 

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

According to Konstantim Mashovets article of 26th of April Operative Group "Belgorod" of Troops Grouping "West" consists of 1 motor-rifle regiment of Territorial troops and 7 different motor-rifle and Territorial Troops batatlions, Border Guard units as well as some artillery units and two helicopter field sites

Total it had 7200 of personnel, 41 tanks, 76 armored vehicles, 179 artillery systems, 15 MLRS

Helicopter site near Roven'ky village (5 km from UKR border )- 2 Ka-52, 5 Mi-24/35, 8 Mi-8

Helicopter site near Berezhnyi town (13 km from UKR border) - 4 Ka-52, 6 Mi-24/35, 7 Mi-8

Both sites in 230 km east from Graivoron 

 

20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Do you know the source? 7k seems very large for this kind of operation, basically 2 brigades equivalent, while most analytics here seem to compare it more to commando raid. So rather around batalion size, maybe even less.

[Huba]

So reportedly Ukrainians captured a R-330Zh „Zhitel”” EW/ satellite jamming set, in it’s absolutely newest version during todays raid…

 

Edited May 22, 2023 by Huba

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

@Beleg85   It was from Haiduk's post below. But I might have misunderstood or maybe the entire unit did not cross the border? I took it to mean the units were x kilometers away from the border and into Russia. 

 

Mashovets wrote about Russian troops ) 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Theoretically Russia has roughly 7x as much manpower in the area to draw from, but it's not all available as much of it is deployed along the border.  Russian commanders have to be concerned that this raid might be followed up by a second one elsewhere in the same sector.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if such additional raids, though on a smaller scale, are indeed planned.  Even groups of 50 or so would be enough to cause serious PR headaches by raiding small towns and taking photos next to landmarks/signs.  Since this *IS* primarily psyops, this sort of stuff would make sense.

This is very important issue.

I also don't think Russian command will be stupid enough to take the bait and relocate frontline forces toward the border- at least judging by milbloggers, they are perfectly aware why Ukraine is conducting this kind of operations, so will probably keep their cards close to them, just in case. Unless highest political factor would kick in, which isn't impossible. Or maybe they will try to create some air-mobile counter force for quick deployment.

But inter-service rivalry between various Russian state organizations may rage up even more. Already, in the words of one of our russianists (guys who deal with Russia, but not from military standpoint) in Russian popular narrations there are more visible accusations of treason/bribery between supporters of various groups, reminescent of Budionnovsk security failures, which reportedly sits deeply inside Russian collective psyche as a symbol. References to these events are appearing more oftne than 6 months ago.

She suggested that for example one of most popular versions of events when 4 airframes were shot down lately is still "Ukrainian sabotage groups with manpads", and it is because it can be used by various coteries in Russia to internal blame game (note, nobody was captured afterwards not any such group eliminated as far as we know). Budionnovsk and similar events also brings memories of blatant corruption and treason.

Today's attack can also be framed along those lines (if we read Girkinoids carefully)- somebody bought somebody, competences between military, security and police operation get blurred. That may also be Ukraine win in longer term, as muscovite psyche was always susceptible to this kind of disbelief in own instiitutions.

 

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

So reportedly Ukrainians captured an R-330Zh „Zhitel”” WRE/ satellite jamming set, in it’s absolutely .newest version during todays raid…

 

yeah but can it do a load of laundry?  

[Beleg85]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian aviation made several airstrikes on outskirts of seized villages. 

Russian milbloggers asses "sabateurs" forces up to batatlion with tank platoon. In Kozinka reportedly 80 of troops with 2 tanks and 2 armored vehicles (RVC has Max Pro on video)  

If those guys will indeed hold out there until Wednsday, at least some Russians may finally legitimatelly claim they succeeded in "3-day Special Military Operation".

[Haiduk]

UKR marines counter-attacked on northern flank of Avdiivka and pushed back Russians toward Krasnohorivka village. In previous days Russians after several days of "meat assaults" could slightly advance along railroad to Stepove, but now they lost not only own last gains, but also several positions, captured in recent weeks. 

Author claims DeepState map of this sector is too pessimistic, real situation was indeed slightly better, and now much more better

Edited May 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

yeah but can it do a load of laundry?  

It can fry one, will that do?

[Haiduk]

CV90 in Germany on the way to Ukraine. Withot this toys no any offensive! )

 

Edited May 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR marines counter-attacked on northern flank of Avdiivka and pushed back Russians toward Krasnohorivka village. In previous days Russians after several days of "meat assaults" could slightly advance along railroad to Stepove, but now they lost not only own last gains, but also several positions, captured in recent weeks. 

Author claims DeepState map of this sector is too pessimistic, real situation was indeed slightly better, and now much more better

Excellent.  This is exactly the sort of thing we predicted would happen... weakened frontlines, through stupid losses and transfers to other places (Bakhmut in particular) are going to present Ukraine multiple opportunities to retake ground.  It might not be a lot, but psychologically it is a good thing for both Ukrainians (positive) and Russians (negative).

Steve

[Centurian52]

On 5/19/2023 at 8:24 AM, IanL said:

What springs to mind is Germany in WW2. I have been watching the YouTube channel that is covering the war week by week. It has been interesting to see the big picture instead of reading about some small part. It was obvious to see that certainly by 1943 Germany was not going to win. They had lost. All that remained was how it would end.

There was lots of events along the way but an outside observer should have been able to conclude that Germany was done, likely before Jan 1943 but certainly after. I don't know when the Germany generals realized it but they must have known not that long afterwards.

I've heard good arguments that Germany lost WW2 before they even started it. But I think November 1942 is when it is indisputable that they had lost the war. You have the triple hammer blows of the 2nd Battle of El Alamein, Operation Torch, and Operation Uranus in November 1942. There's just no coming back from those.

Likewise it's possible that Russia lost this war before they even started it. I don't remember exactly when I realized that Russia would lose. I don't think I ever believed that Russia would win outright (actually the earliest assessment I remember giving to my friends and family back in January/early February 2022 was that it would probably take the Russians 2-6 weeks to reach the Dnipro with casualties in the low tens of thousands, but that they wouldn't be able to push past the Dnipro at an acceptable cost). I think I persisted for at least a couple weeks in believing that Russia would eventually defeat conventional Ukrainian forces, occupy the country, and eventually be defeated by unconventional Ukrainian forces. But I think the moment when I realized that no reasonable person could still believe that Russia could win was the end of March/beginning of April 2022, when Russia withdrew from Kiev and northern Ukraine. April 2022 was the November 1942 moment for me.

[Beleg85]

37 minutes ago, Huba said:

So reportedly Ukrainians captured an R-330Zh „Zhitel”” WRE/ satellite jamming set, in it’s absolutely .newest version during todays raid…

Also Wolski enigmatically but rather surely claims that there it is not over with trophies and there was significant "bonus" to this Zhitel captured, which together should be more to compensate for F-16's. Curious what it was. Guy likes hyperboles, but it seems presence of this EW set(s?) could significantly contribute toward this operation goals.

[Seminole]

16 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

But I think the moment when I realized that no reasonable person could still believe that Russia could win was the end of March/beginning of April 2022, when Russia withdrew from Kiev and northern Ukraine. April 2022 was the November 1942 moment for me.

Yeah, it turns out that was a good litmus test.

If the person thinks the initial invasion avenues were just a clever feint, you know what you're dealing with.

[Baneman]

3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

kinda off topic, but I wonder if BFC is planning any offensive actions now that the ground it dry?  As in new releases?  In support of UKR offensives.  There's probably lots of influential military minds in RU that would be very distracted by new CM content, just in time for UKR to strike.  ...

If the war has proved anything, it's that NO ONE in the Russian Army plays CM !

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, Baneman said:

If the war has proved anything, it's that NO ONE in the Russian Army plays CM !

Maybe in the next aid package they can include funding for a Black Sea module - "Civil war in Russia".  With BFs track record that might be enough to push Putin over the edge.

[womble]

20 minutes ago, sburke said:

Maybe in the next aid package they can include funding for a Black Sea module - "Civil war in Russia".  With BFs track record that might be enough to push Putin over the edge.

I suspect the pros have probably set up the parameters for that in "Professional" versions... Any reciprocity agreements for out-of-date technical specs as set up in Pro to be sent to BFC for inclusion in future product?

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[Centurian52]

On 5/19/2023 at 11:29 AM, akd said:

Here is the direct link:

Parts of this GoPro footage were included in a short doc on the unit previously posted, but this gives a much more clear picture of the assault on the VDV 72nd MRB transmission tower position.

That was very interesting. I like that he reminded his men to keep a respectful distance from the M113 (a video I saw a little while ago with troops closely following a BMP-1 made me nervous about how closely bunched up they were around the vehicle (one RPG hit could have made for a very bad day)).

The use of a smoke grenade on an enclosed space in an attempt to asphyxiate the Russian soldier in the dugout caught my attention. I specifically remember someone brought up that tactic in reference to the Cyclops position videos.

I appreciate them shouting at the Russians to surrender at every opportunity. "Surrender and you will live" seems like good messaging to me. And "surrender or I'm throwing a grenade" is just a great carrot and stick. It's unfortunate it didn't work this time, and it would be nice to understand why. Perhaps there are ways to improve the messaging (honestly I'm not sure how much clearer you can get)? Or perhaps these particular Russians were just diehards. I suppose in the end it doesn't really matter whether they die or surrender, so long as they are no longer contributing to the enemy's numbers. The biggest reason that surrendering is preferable is the hope that the behavior will become contagious. In any case, the attempt to get the Russians to surrender reflects well on these soldiers.

And it was validating to see him send some of his troops to clear the trenches to the left moments after my instincts started screaming that they needed to clear the trenches to the left.

The one thing I didn't like seeing was the one guy in front pushing so far forward without anyone parallel to him. My impression is that on the occasions where he stops he's probably waiting on others to catch up, and then he gets egged on to go forward again before they do.

[Letter from Prague]

I expected a counter-offensive, not counter-invasion.

If the rumors about Belgorod nuclear weapons storage are true, the Muscovites can't exactly not react.

[Harmon Rabb]

 

[Beleg85]

44 minutes ago, sburke said:

Maybe in the next aid package they can include funding for a Black Sea module - "Civil war in Russia".  With BFs track record that might be enough to push Putin over the edge.

kept In the spirit of retro-punk. Armoured trains with T-14 turrets. Girkin leading bold cavalry raids by Bashkir cavalry, with fluorescent sabres and in NVG (horses too). Putin and his family arrested by Belgorod Revolutionary Comitee. Tachankas on buchankas everywhere.

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

 

Some footage of the explosion.  Allegedly it was a drone:

 

These attacks are extremely interesting and must be totally infuriating to Russian officials.  The question, as always, is to what extent Ukraine is directly involved in the attacks.  Some of them seem to be locals (e.g. molotovs into recruitment centers), others are too sophisticate for that (e.g. Kerch bridge).

So much is hidden from our view!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Oh SNAP!  Oryx just stared up an equipment loss list for the "Russian Incursion Into Russia":