How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I think, 1,5 years was enough to see who is who and who is real nazi. 

We will see what happen when Azov, Karpacka Sich and similar guys approach Crimea/Donbas, which legally they have all right to do of course. I remember times when Croats after Vukovar were painted as heroes too...until certain moment, when tribalism of course started to kick in. Because why wouldn't it?

Nobody in this conflict is real nazi tbf., not even Russians for large part, because ideology of national socialism is strictly speaking long dead. And this epithet is long overdue. Russians are fascisizing imperialists with lobotomy in their heads, that is obvious though.

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

So, either somebody want this or not, in this war of senses we will use our senses and symbols, which will inspire and which will cause propagandists madness of our enemies

And what this "madness" of your enemies actually achieve in military sense? Except chances that Ukrainian prisoners with nationalistic symbolics- which young 20+ old kids may find just a really good joke for themselves until captured- are much more prone to be beaten, tortured or murdered by muscovites?

Again, I just give example of how this symbolic harmed your own effort. So if you folks don't need those drones, batteries, bandages, medicines, ammo, personal weapons yadda yadda that are donated in thousand by people of good will across the world, because some nationalist want to feel good for a moment- it is ok, its your country. Just say in plainly.

Edited May 21, 2023 by Beleg85

[womble]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

We fihgt not for abstract "bright future", not for "EU membership" and even not for "western liberal values". We fight for own survival first of all. Like a state and like nation. All other - membership, values, "shield of Europe" maybe also important too, but secondary. So, either somebody want this or not, in this war of senses we will use our senses and symbols, which will inspire and which will cause propagandists madness of our enemies. I think, 1,5 years was enough to see who is who and who is real nazi.

You misunderstand. It's not about what you're fighting for, it's what you're fighting with. There are a hatful of reasons for the west to arm you against Russia, but "They're Naxis! Look at their unit patches!!"  is just a gimme own goal for Russian propaganda to add to the reasons to not arm you.

Don't get me wrong, I'm 100% behind Ukraine and understand that you're absolutely not trying to be the reincarnation of the Third Reich. But I was never going to vote for Trump, even if I had the right to do so. You'll beat the Russians in the end, for sure, because you're better, and more determined. The timescale and casualty toll though, if you throw away Western support for some frat-boy humour would look even more grim than they do currently.

I know you can't stop them, but I hope you can see that it's Bad PR and that currently you're winning the war at the rate you are because you have Good PR. And then there's post-war reconstruction to consider. That's an even softer target for propaganda.

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

So, on current stage Russian propaganda already hasn't this huge strenght, as it was before a war. 

There was great work done by UKR around the time of the Azovstahl siege, debunking the "neonazi militia" thing. I think it's a stupid risk to undo that when there are powerful lobbies looking for reasons to get our governments to shut down the aid to your country, military, humanitarian and, in the future, for reconstruction.

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Sometime I watch western twiterrs, so as most of people usually take firmly position of one of sides and very rarely their opinion can be changed. Those who support Ukraine (or just consider Russia like existential opponent and have position "enemy of my enemy is my ally") will support despite some things, which modern left-liberal ideology tought them to consider as "prohibited" (I'm not so much about symbols, like about national-oriented ideology). Those, who consider that aid for Ukriane is wasting of money, or "there is no war in Ukriane, this is TV-fake", or "western friends of Russia, with brauins poisoned recently by RT" - they still with own opinion too. So, on current stage Russian propaganda already hasn't this huge strenght, as it was before a war. 

heh.  I have no problem figuring out who the real fascists are in this war.  Someone points out a unit badge in UA.  Then I see Wagner taking a sledgehammer to people, the butchery in Bucha and so many other places, keeping recruits who don't want to be a stupid human wave being kept in pits, deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure etc etc.

[womble]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

heh.  I have no problem figuring out who the real fascists are in this war.  Someone points out a unit badge in UA.  Then I see Wagner taking a sledgehammer to people, the butchery in Bucha and so many other places, keeping recruits who don't want to be a stupid human wave being kept in pits, deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure etc etc.

That, Mr Burke, is because, for all your protests about senescence setting in, you remain sharp-minded. There are a lot of dullards out there* who will not look past what they're told, by people who have myopic vision themselves whose interests do not align with those of Ukraine.

* By "out there" I mean "beyond this forum".

p.s. While I'm addressing the point directly, this isn't really aimed at sburke, more as a hopeful dig to remind others that not everyone sees things the way "we" do, even as generally as that can be a true statement, and that those people have, or seek, with some prospect of attaining, power.

[Haiduk]

Russian ammo dumps were hit:

Mospyne (Donetsk oblast)

Oleshky area (Kherson oblast)

Today's morning photo of expliosin in Berdiansk airport area

[TheVulture]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The time delay between initial impact and deep penetration detonation *might* be enough for the ear to hear two separate explosions.  They would also have different sound profiles which would increase the chances of being perceived as distinct from each other.

In any case, it's pretty clear that Ukraine found a nice target for its new Shadow Storm bunker buster

Steve

If you were close (too close) perhaps - but different frequencies of sound travel at different speeds (dispersion), plus echoes and non-linear paths through the atmosphere smear everything out quite rapidly. Which is why you can hear the thunder from a single lightning strike several km away as a rumble that lasts several seconds, rather than the single sharp crack that was actually produced.

So at any appreciable distance, I'd imagine that the sounds of both parts of a tandem warhead would be very much overlapping, unless they are 10+ seconds apart. I suppose that's possible for a bunker buster though.

[Beleg85]

One of more unusual and interesting players in background of this conflict is Japan.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/2023/05/19/special-supplements/japan-offers-comprehensive-assistance-ukraine/

I read that Japanese PM just promised more direct military support in Hiroshima, too, in the form of combat vehicles and perosnnal eqiupment. There are rumours among some millexperts that Japanese are also very active in prividing signal and humint intelligence, but this will probably be widely only known years from now.  Several interviewed volunteers in Int. Legion mentioned that they were surprised to see not-small amount of Japan volunteers, too.

Edited May 21, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

Just got around to reading yesterday's ISW report.  It's an important one.

The bulk of the top section is about Bakhmut.  It starts out by acknowledging that, in reality or symbolically, Wagner has Bakhmut under its thumb.  It has fallen to the enemy.  And then ISW quickly points out that it doesn't have anything other than a symbolic impact because the military value of the city has long since been near zero.  Taking the last few highrise apartments doesn't change the equation one iota.

As the old saying goes, for Wagner specifically and Russia generally, "a few more victories like this and they'll have lost the war".

If we look backwards we see a military disaster for Russia in every measurable way.  It was a difficult battle for Ukraine as well, but the Russian "victory" in Bakhmut undermines Russia's strategic goals.  Ukraine's "defeat", on the other hand, may have significantly contributed to Ukraine achieving a decisive victory this year.

Looking forward, ISW points out the obvious to the wargaming and military historians amongst us... a battle does not sit alone in a vacuum.  The past events matter and so will the future events.  Here's ISW's take on it:

Quote

Wagner forces are unlikely to successfully conduct a controlled withdrawal from Bakhmut while in contact with Ukrainian forces within five days without disrupting the Russian MoD’s efforts to prepare for planned Ukrainian counteroffensives. Wagner forces are unlikely to establish adequate defenses or consolidate recent gains in Bakhmut sufficient to forestall Ukrainian counterattacks by May 25 even if Prigozhin’s announcement of Wagner’s withdrawal is true. Ukrainian forces are still in Khromove and Ivanivske and are engaging Russian forces in and near Bakhmut. Ukrainian artillery can still target Russian forces in and around Bakhmut. Withdrawal in contact with the enemy is an exceedingly difficult task that the Wagner Group’s forces are unlikely to perform well within Prigozhin’s five-day time frame. Conducting a relief-in-place while in contact is also an extremely challenging maneuver that Russian forces would likely struggle to conduct even if the Russian MoD agrees to undertake it. Wagner units have shown poor coordination with Russian conventional forces, other irregular formations subordinated to the Russian MoD, and the Russian military command—factors that would hinder a smooth relief-in-place operation.[5] The Russian military command is unlikely to generate sufficient forces to relieve Wagner in Bakhmut and hold its flanks within the window Prigozhin has announced without redeploying Russian forces from other areas. Prigozhin’s statement of his intent to withdraw could be a crude attempt to mislead Ukrainian forces into conducting a counterattack through Bakhmut City.

There's more, but I'll summarize it.

Ukraine is still actively gaining ground on the flanks of Bakhmut.  Russia has had to pull units out of the line to meet those counter attacks, including what remains of the VDV.  Wagner is supposedly going to withdraw, so what will Russia use to replace Wagner with even in theory?  Russia doesn't have excess forces sitting around idle.  At best (for Russia) they will thin out frontline ready reserves, at worst they will come from the frontline itself.  Putting aside quality issues, there are a number of problems here that don't look good for Russia at all.  The good news is that Russia seems committed to ignoring these problems and reinforce Bakhmut anyway.

Under these circumstances Russia needs to do a "relief-in-place" within an area actively engaged in fighting with worsening conditions on the flanks.  Coordination is key and there's precious little signs that Russian MoD and Wagner forces have what it takes to pull it off.

Here's a prediction.

Ukraine will continue pushing on the flanks which will obligate Russia to focus its dwindling resources there.  Poor quality MoD units will attempt to replace Wagner's forces within Bakhmut under a unrealistic timeframe.  The handoff of positions will not be smooth and Ukraine will try to make it even worse thorough the use of artillery.  Wagner will pull out regardless knowing that if the MoD fails to hold Bakhmut Prig will say it is all the MoD's fault.  Which is good for he and Putin's political games, but really bad for Russia's war effort.

I'm pretty sure of the above, what I am less sure about is what happens after.  Two scenarios come to mind:

1. Ukraine slowly constricts the supply of Russian forces within the city and eventually obligates the Russians to leave or starve to death.  Attacks directly into the city will be more harassing than large scale attacks.
2. As above, but after the counter offensive starts Ukraine waits for conditions to be optimal and launches a concerted counter attack to speed up the retaking of Bakhmut.

The difference between these two scenarios is the first might stretch out over months, the second could happen in 24-48 hours from the time the operation starts.

My guess is we'll see #2.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian ammo dumps were hit:

Mospyne (Donetsk oblast)

Oleshky area (Kherson oblast)

Today's morning photo of expliosin in Berdiansk airport area

I like knowing I have a lot more reports like this to read every day

Any news on what might have gone BOOM in Belgorod last night?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

If you were close (too close) perhaps - but different frequencies of sound travel at different speeds (dispersion), plus echoes and non-linear paths through the atmosphere smear everything out quite rapidly. Which is why you can hear the thunder from a single lightning strike several km away as a rumble that lasts several seconds, rather than the single sharp crack that was actually produced.

So at any appreciable distance, I'd imagine that the sounds of both parts of a tandem warhead would be very much overlapping, unless they are 10+ seconds apart. I suppose that's possible for a bunker buster though.

Yeah, the reports coming in are probably from close enough that the sound waves haven't lost their "oomph", though the delays in other bunker busters are represented in milliseconds.  So yeah, I guess not enough separation for the ear to pick up on two distinct sound patterns probably even right up close.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Under these circumstances Russia needs to do a "relief-in-place" within an area actively engaged in fighting with worsening conditions on the flanks.  Coordination is key and there's precious little signs that Russian MoD and Wagner forces have what it takes to pull it off.

Here's a prediction.

Ukraine will continue pushing on the flanks which will obligate Russia to focus its dwindling resources there.  Poor quality MoD units will attempt to replace Wagner's forces within Bakhmut under a unrealistic timeframe.  The handoff of positions will not be smooth and Ukraine will try to make it even worse thorough the use of artillery.  Wagner will pull out regardless knowing that if the MoD fails to hold Bakhmut Prig will say it is all the MoD's fault.  Which is good for he and Putin's political games, but really bad for Russia's war effort.

I'm pretty sure of the above, what I am less sure about is what happens after.  Two scenarios come to mind:

1. Ukraine slowly constricts the supply of Russian forces within the city and eventually obligates the Russians to leave or starve to death.  Attacks directly into the city will be more harassing than large scale attacks.
2. As above, but after the counter offensive starts Ukraine waits for conditions to be optimal and launches a concerted counter attack to speed up the retaking of Bakhmut.

The difference between these two scenarios is the first might stretch out over months, the second could happen in 24-48 hours from the time the operation starts.

My guess is we'll see #2.

Steve

Relief in place is going to be a disaster without secure flanks and communications. How does that even work for artillery and ammo dumps, which I assume Wagner won’t just hand over to MoD? And then you’ll have trucks and various other hardware all over the place moving in and out of position.

#2 sounds more likely unless Ukraine cant muster up the resource for this.

[The_MonkeyKing]

34 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

One of more unusual and interesting players in background of this conflict is Japan.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/2023/05/19/special-supplements/japan-offers-comprehensive-assistance-ukraine/

I read that Japanese PM just promised more direct military support in Hiroshima, too, in the form of combat vehicles and perosnnal eqiupment. There are rumours among some millexperts that Japanese are also very active in prividing signal and humint intelligence, but this will probably be widely only known years from now.  Several interviewed volunteers in Int. Legion mentioned that they were surprised to see not-small amount of Japan volunteers, too.

unexpected

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, billbindc said:

I'm not too sure Stalin would agree with the thesis that Russian authoritarian states suffer much from stretching the limits of the monopoly of violence to maintain domestic control.

Very true, but Putin's Russia was not run on Stalinist methods, at least before he started this disastrous war. Stalinism was very much the model of overwhelming totalitarianism. The state tried to dictate virtually everything, to virtually everyone. Jobs, housing, marriage, and to the extent it could, dinner table conversation. Perhaps most importantly there was just no way out.

Until he started this idiotic war Putin's Russia was really very different. There were lines a smart person did NOT cross, and a great deal of bad propaganda you had to actively avoid if you wanted to have any idea what was actually going on. Very importantly, you could leave if you wanted to, and a great many did before the war, and even more after it started. Even so, there was actually a great deal of personal freedom if you stayed inside certain well defined lines.

To the extent a lot people, including me, have been wrong about the political course of this war inside Russia, it was in underestimating Putin's ability to return to a full Stalinist model without having a fatal mishap of some sort. The next question is will this near complete reorganization of the states relationship to its people withstand the kind of smack the Ukrainians are about to give the Russian military in Ukraine. I think it is fair to state that the old Chinese joke about interesting times is unpleasantly correct.

1 hour ago, womble said:

You misunderstand. It's not about what you're fighting for, it's what you're fighting with. There are a hatful of reasons for the west to arm you against Russia, but "They're Naxis! Look at their unit patches!!"  is just a gimme own goal for Russian propaganda to add to the reasons to not arm you.

Don't get me wrong, I'm 100% behind Ukraine and understand that you're absolutely not trying to be the reincarnation of the Third Reich. But I was never going to vote for Trump, even if I had the right to do so. You'll beat the Russians in the end, for sure, because you're better, and more determined. The timescale and casualty toll though, if you throw away Western support for some frat-boy humour would look even more grim than they do currently.

I know you can't stop them, but I hope you can see that it's Bad PR and that currently you're winning the war at the rate you are because you have Good PR. And then there's post-war reconstruction to consider. That's an even softer target for propaganda.

There was great work done by UKR around the time of the Azovstahl siege, debunking the "neonazi militia" thing. I think it's a stupid risk to undo that when there are powerful lobbies looking for reasons to get our governments to shut down the aid to your country, military, humanitarian and, in the future, for reconstruction.

This is a little like telling soldiers not to smoke, they know it isn't very good for them, but it helps get them through one more rough day in a trench. Is it worth the bandwidth of higher command to make this problem go away? I suspect it will be eventually, but not this month.

Edit: Here is your NEW patch commemorating your units heroic deeds in in the summer offensive would be one obvious path.

Edited May 21, 2023 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

8 hours ago, JonS said:

One of my more favoured aphorisms is "for every complex problem there is a solution that is simple, obvious, and wrong."

Words to remember, words to live by. It's a complex old world out there, and dumbing it down doesn't help anyone.

JonS, this is so ridiculously and demonstrably wrong.  I can go on the internet right now and find hundreds of examples where a difficult and complex problem is easily solved by "this one simple trick".  QED!  Debate won!  Woo woo!  that'll show all you people who are educated on subjects and actually know things!   HA HA HA I WIN!  (legal disclaimer: this is sarcasm)

But seriously, excellent discussions here.  I was out after yesterday morning & had ~5 pages to get thru, y'all were quite prolific and good (one notable exception).

Meanwhile, Bakhmut falls.  Which may be the stupidest victory in history.  I am still of the belief that Wagner needed to win here because of contractual obligations -- meaning Putin gave Wagner financial incentives for Bakhmut many months ago, before knowing the cost, but kept it going because he needed the propaganda.  Well, congratulations to all.  Your reward is coming soon.

Seems the new longer range precision weapons are taking corrosion to a lovely new level.  Airfields & logistics & HQs that were out of range are now being hit regularly.  I was chomping at the bit for months for the ground to dry but now I am quite content to wait and let corrosion work its magic before the big show.  In the meantime, attack weakened, exhausted RU positions and cause consternation in RU troops & command.  Move some fancy NATO-supplied units to some rear of some section of the front, let it 'leak' out to the world.  Then remove it a week or two later to some other place.  Really F with 'em while the missiles take out the backbone.

 

Edited May 21, 2023 by danfrodo

[billbindc]

19 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

JonS, this is so ridiculously and demonstrably wrong.  I can go on the internet right now and find hundreds of examples where a difficult and complex problem is easily solved by "this one simple trick".  QED!  Debate won!  Woo woo!  that'll show all you people who are educated on subjects and actually know things!   HA HA HA I WIN!  (legal disclaimer: this is sarcasm)

The 'one weird trick' of nuclear escalation...

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The 'one weird trick' of nuclear escalation...

I am guessing the red helmet guy has the honor of going & directly inspecting the impact area?

[kimbosbread]

33 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Here is your NEW patch commemorating your units heroic deeds in in the summer offensive would be one obvious path.

Yeah from a PR perspective this should be a major focus for the military. Give all the “heroic” units new patches, maybe keep the wolf, but a wheat field in the back, or women or children, or puppies. Americans love puppies. Super easy, but requires a bit of a different mindset to do during wartime, and harder to understand for people dying to push to Russians out.

[poesel]

The fun thing is, when Russia retreats from Bakhmut, it will just be a side-note in the war news. Overlaid by Ukrainian advances elsewhere.

The next time Bakhmut is in the news, 1–2 years down the road, is when they pick a suitable demolished building as a war memorial for the victory over Russia.

In between we will get several CM maps (of different times) and the fight will be immortalized in dozens of urban fighting, small scale scenarios.

The final step is forumites doing selfies before said memorial and posting them in this thread.

[Haiduk]

3rd assault brigade reports they gained next 700 m of ground on 1700 m of front by forces of 2nd assault battalion. Next units of Russian 72nd motor-rifle brigade were thrown back and lost 23 KIA and 40 WIA as well as some armor, including tanks.  

Reportedly UKR troops still hold small piece of Bakhmut in area of former MiG-17 monument. Reportedly some Right Sector unit entered to the battle inside the city and has small advance on three streets, but this is unverified in present time. 

This video probably from northern flank of Bakhmut front - 8th mountain-assault battalion of 10th mountain-assault brigade repelled armored attack of Russians, destroying three BMP of four. 

 

 

[womble]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Meanwhile, Bakhmut falls.  Which may be the stupidest victory in history.

So a "Prigozhinic Victory"? Has Pyrrhus been overtopped sufficient in the "victory that cost more than it was worth" stakes to have his name replaced?

[sburke]

42 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I am guessing the red helmet guy has the honor of going & directly inspecting the impact area?

in years to come he will become the Star Trek guy that has to die.

[sburke]

2 hours ago, womble said:

That, Mr Burke, is because, for all your protests about senescence setting in, you remain sharp-minded. There are a lot of dullards out there* who will not look past what they're told, by people who have myopic vision themselves whose interests do not align with those of Ukraine.

* By "out there" I mean "beyond this forum".

p.s. While I'm addressing the point directly, this isn't really aimed at sburke, more as a hopeful dig to remind others that not everyone sees things the way "we" do, even as generally as that can be a true statement, and that those people have, or seek, with some prospect of attaining, power.

I understand your point, but going back to Haiduk's post, I think most folks have taken a harder position either for or against and these items do not have the impact they might once have had.  They really aren't going to move the needle much.  Russia has been way too blatant and the folks who are on the fence will always have an excuse for not opposing Russia that have nothing to do with Ukrainian actions.

[womble]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

I understand your point, but going back to Haiduk's post, I think most folks have taken a harder position either for or against and these items do not have the impact they might once have had.  They really aren't going to move the needle much.  Russia has been way too blatant and the folks who are on the fence will always have an excuse for not opposing Russia that have nothing to do with Ukrainian actions.

The needle doesn't have to move much. Margins in elections are generally tight enough that autocrats can quibble... 

[Harmon Rabb]

18 hours ago, dan/california said:

The only colossal risk is the orcs winning, which is why we are being very sure it doesn't happen.

Joe Biden agrees with your assessment.

Edited May 21, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Seminole]

Rumors continue to spread around the sudden disappearance of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny.

Being a media personality, Zaluzhny was constantly in the lenses of Ukrainian and Western media. In terms of the intensity of flickering on TV screens, it is second only to Zelensky himself.

At the same time, since May 8, no one has seen Zaluzhny. General Nayev is present at all events that require the personal participation of the Commander-in-Chief. Even at the next meeting of the heads of military departments in Ramstein, where critical for Ukraine issues of the supply of weapons and ammunition necessary for the upcoming counteroffensive were discussed, Commander-in-in-Chief Zaluzhny did not participate even online.

According to our source in the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Zaluzhny is alive, but is in critical condition in the main military clinical hospital, where the struggle for his life continues, including with the participation of foreign specialists.

On May 8, Zaluzhny was seriously wounded while at one of the control points of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Dnipropetrovsk region, when he checked the readiness of formations and units for a counterattack.

During a missile strike on military infrastructure facilities in the Dnipropetrovsk region, this control point was hit by an accurate hit by a Russian cruise missile. As a result, a large number of high-ranking Ukrainian military personnel, including General Zaluzhny, were killed and wounded.

Information about Zaluzhny's wound is indirectly confirmed by the fact that on May 10, his wife Elena was seen approaching from Novokhospitalnaya Street to the Kiev military hospital, where she spent more than four hours.

To prevent panic among the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukrainian servicemen, information about the serious injury and critical state of health of Zaluzhny is hidden. The Ukrainian special services are tasked to demonstrate Zaluzhny's activity in every possible way while there is a struggle for his life.

Hence the appearance in the media of all sorts of "stupid" interviews allegedly recorded recently or photos from the rest of the Commander-in-Chief in Cyprus. Agree, it's not a good time to rest, when preparations for the upcoming counteroffensive are in full swing. And the loss of Bakhmut is not a good situation either.

Link