How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

During Russian assault of UKR positions in Pervomaiske area (Avdiivka direction) Javelin operator of 59th mot.inf.brigade can't lock Russian tank on about 300 m, because LOS was closed by dust and smoke. Only when dust curtain scattered enough, operator could lock on target and launched missile

 

Edited May 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, chris talpas said:

They look organized and well disciplined.  They also showed good camaraderie and morale.

Video already is gone, but looks like this was new 31st mech.brigade, which fights in Kremiina area. Also new formed 37th marines brigade, due to Russian milbloggers reports substituted 79th air-assault brigade in Maryinka area

Edited May 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Artkin]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

During Russian assault of UKR positions in Pervomaiske area (Avdiivka direction) Javelin operator of 59th mot.inf.brigade can't lock Russian tank on about 300 m, because LOS was closed by dust and smoke. Only when dust curtain scattered enough, operator could lock on target and launched missile

 

Awesome video of what appears to be the javelin's second firing mode. If that was 300m, that was super quick. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Or talking head? Give us a break. Please. If the deal looks good that means Putin is out. Take it. She is just another Princeton grad who knows little about the real world. I run into these freaks all the time.

 “If we just stop for a ceasefire, Russia wins because Russia has gained, illegally, territory that it has seized, and that is a problem,” Yovanovitch said. 

And this is a person that might wear diapers to bed. Like POTUS. I hope the women has no influence on anything.  

So what exactly is it she said you disagree with and why is it a good idea for nobody to listen to it?

I've noticed lately a significant quality contrast between your earlier posts and your later ones.  I think you'd be better off skipping your late evening posts.

Steve

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Artkin said:

If that was 300m

Or even much more less

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Video already is gone, but looks like this was new 31st mech.brigade, which fights in Kremiina area. Also new formed 37th marines brigade, due to Russian milbloggers reports substituted 79th air-assault brigade in Maryinka area

Yeah, probably too detailed for the comfort of military censors.  It was a very good video though.

The unit was 77th Airmobile Brigade.  There was an appeal for the unit and I saw the unit patch on a few of the guys.  It was a M119 105mm howitzer, which makes sense to have assigned to a "light" formation such as Airmobile.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

52 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Sign of things to come.

 

Heh... who didn't see this coming?  The Master Strategist

Steve

[mosuri]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think Prig and his management team have figured out that Ukraine is a money losing exercise for them.  Ukraine is convincing them that it might soon be worse than that.  Withdrawing what is left of Wagner to enter into new contracts in Africa makes a whole lot of sense.  Throwing away the excess lives also makes sense, at least to Russians.

Steve

Ukraine is a bottomless sink of money and resources while Sudan has gold, Meroe Gold more specifically

https://www.dw.com/en/pmc-russias-wagner-group-in-sudan-gold-military-junta/a-65439746

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So you do not have to agree with the current US president - and sure go ahead and insult him based on ageism. But it is hard to disagree with the results in Ukraine, so far.  

Nah, all you have to do is get a microphone in your face and say you can do it better.  Pretty easy in fact

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

This has been one helluva tough one to steer through from a strategic and political level.  And it has not been perfect.  But for navigation through the first real proxy war of the 21st century I gotta give it a B+ so far.

Overall that sounds about right.  The one specific area I'm uncertain how to grade is about the speed of supply certain NATO systems, such as Patriot, MBTs, and aircraft.  How much realistic room was there for the US to push harder to get these things introduced sooner?  If the answer was "quite a bit, but the US fundamentally agreed with NATO to withhold these systems" then the Biden Admin gets a lower grade.  However, if the apparent reluctance of the US was to keep harmony within the alliance while it quietly pushed things along, then I'd give it a higher grade.  It will be a while before we know either way.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, mosuri said:

Ukraine is a bottomless sink of money and resources while Sudan has gold, Meroe Gold more specifically

https://www.dw.com/en/pmc-russias-wagner-group-in-sudan-gold-military-junta/a-65439746

Yup.  Ironically, several of us here several times have made cracks about paying Wagner to leave the frontline.  If the rumors are true, that seems to be (in a sense) what's happening.  i.e. it's spotted a better business opportunity elsewhere.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's assessment from last night:

Quote

A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukrainian counterattacks in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on May 19 that Russian forces concentrated most of their reserves in the Bakhmut direction, which has slowed the rate of Ukrainian advances.[1] Malyar also stated that Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack on the northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut and advanced 500 meters on one flank and 1,000 meters on the other.[2] Some Russian milbloggers celebrated the slowed Ukrainian rate of advance and claimed that the Ukrainian forces are unable to sustain prolonged localized counterattacks around Bakhmut.[3] Russian forces on Bakhmut’s flanks likely remain weak, however; Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued to criticize the Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic Army Corps) on May 19 for retreating from defensive lines southwest of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut).[4] Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut have notably likely eliminated the threat of a Russian encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut and forced Russian troops to allocate scarce military resources to defend against a limited and localized offensive effort, as Ukrainian command likely intended.

A few days ago I said that there was 0% chance that Wagner would capture all of Bakhmut.  I am probably going to be proven wrong on that.  In my defense I should have applied a caveat which was "if Ukraine feels it is worth holding".  So where we're at now is one of two possibilities.

1.  Ukraine's primary purpose for the flank attacks was to hold Bakhmut

2.  Ukraine's primary purpose for the flank attacks was to obligate Russia to commit its reserves and/or thin the lines elsewhere

As Bakhmut itself has no military value for Russia at all, and is in fact a military liability without the flanks, Ukraine opting for #2 makes a lot of sense given that the primary counter attack has yet to reveal itself.  So, when I said that Wagner had 0% chance of taking it I really should have thought that through and realized that Ukraine likely doesn't need to keep it to achieve it's primary objective.  Russia, on the other hand, does.

This is a classic asymmetrical victory condition situation, as we cater to in Combat Mission.  The Ukrainian forces were tasked with rolling back the flanks and obligating Russia to commit reserves.  Mission successful.  Russia was tasked with holding the flanks and securing the remaining portion of Bakhmut.  Mission partially successful.

In CM terms this already is a win for Ukraine viewed through this lens.  The previous 9 months of battles can also be seen as a win for Ukraine as Russia burnt out a huge chunk of its military potential while Ukraine was able to do exactly the opposite.

Going forward, it is going to be interesting to see how important these two wins (notice I am not using "victory" on purpose) are on the course of the war, in particular the next 6 months of fighting.  It is not difficult to imagine that Bakhmut will have as much impact on this war for Russia as something like Stalingrad did for the Germans in WW2.

Steve

[akd]

 

[danfrodo]

Bakhmut:  I can't wait until we get panicked RU radio intercepts saying "where's arty support?!!!  We're being overrun!"  Folks here on the forum will know the arty support was spent leveling the Bakhmut back in April & May.  And we'll rejoice.  This is like some computer wargame where player hopes by grabbing one mid objective they can squeeze out a draw, no matter the cost.

The combat video above from AKD is amazing.  Smoke, haze in the May morning sunshine and a javelin leaps out from a trench to snatch its prey. 

Biden et al seemed to have decided that they wanted to control the escalation pace, I guess.  Drove me out of my mind.  Let's all reflect on the probability that President Option B would've also sent lots of aid -- except to the other side.  And if so the war would definitely be over by now, wouldn't it?   Tankies would be rejoicing.  That would've been a fun May 9 parade, w US president on the raised stage smiling & glad handing Putin the mass murderer and NATO in shambles, w Baltic states next on the list. 

I do understand the escalation optics of having US F16s shooting down RU jets and hitting RU targets, all caught on some RU gopro.  But the F16s, tanks, etc should've been starting into the pipeline last summer all the same.

 

[Haiduk]

This guy has written UKR troops inside Bakhmut received an order to withdraw from last position "Plane" in the city. Similar posts or hints about this I have seen on some other accounts

Prigozhyn claims he will begin withdrawal of PMC Wagner from frontline for R&R  from 25th of May. Part of most experienced merceneries will be moved to Sudan. In Ukraine in semi-seriously / semi-jokingly discussed theme that after the war we can establish own PMC, which will be moved to Africa to chase and destroy Wagners and Russian influence in Africa   

Edited May 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Vet 0369]

12 hours ago, Kinophile said:

For the vets here, Ref battlefield medicine.

This netting on the guys head is for what? I assume a good purpose, of course, but what exactly?

NYT front page.

Not something I have seen before, but I’m sure it’s a newer innovation to maintain pressure on a head wound. One of the reasons for the U.S. Military hair regulations is because you can bleed to death very quickly from a head wound if there is a lot of hair between the wound and the direct pressure dressing.

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

So what exactly is it she said you disagree with and why is it a good idea for nobody to listen to it?

I've noticed lately a significant quality contrast between your earlier posts and your later ones.  I think you'd be better off skipping your late evening posts.

It's obvious what I disagree with and the quality of the posts are not up for you to decide on alone commissar. 

[MikeyD]

Har har.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/05/ukraine-victory-russia-defeat/674112/

It’s Not Enough for Ukraine to Win. Russia Has to Lose.

Anything less will encourage Russian imperialism and embolden autocrats around the world.

 

He states it perfectly.

[DavidFields]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW's assessment from last night:

A few days ago I said that there was 0% chance that Wagner would capture all of Bakhmut.  I am probably going to be proven wrong on that.  In my defense I should have applied a caveat which was "if Ukraine feels it is worth holding".  So where we're at now is one of two possibilities.

1.  Ukraine's primary purpose for the flank attacks was to hold Bakhmut

2.  Ukraine's primary purpose for the flank attacks was to obligate Russia to commit its reserves and/or thin the lines elsewhere

As Bakhmut itself has no military value for Russia at all, and is in fact a military liability without the flanks, Ukraine opting for #2 makes a lot of sense given that the primary counter attack has yet to reveal itself.  So, when I said that Wagner had 0% chance of taking it I really should have thought that through and realized that Ukraine likely doesn't need to keep it to achieve it's primary objective.  Russia, on the other hand, does.

This is a classic asymmetrical victory condition situation, as we cater to in Combat Mission.  The Ukrainian forces were tasked with rolling back the flanks and obligating Russia to commit reserves.  Mission successful.  Russia was tasked with holding the flanks and securing the remaining portion of Bakhmut.  Mission partially successful.

In CM terms this already is a win for Ukraine viewed through this lens.  The previous 9 months of battles can also be seen as a win for Ukraine as Russia burnt out a huge chunk of its military potential while Ukraine was able to do exactly the opposite.

Going forward, it is going to be interesting to see how important these two wins (notice I am not using "victory" on purpose) are on the course of the war, in particular the next 6 months of fighting.  It is not difficult to imagine that Bakhmut will have as much impact on this war for Russia as something like Stalingrad did for the Germans in WW2.

Steve

Thank you for the courteous replies to my post.

Or, 3.  The primary purpose of the flank attack was to ensure the withdrawal from the city of Bakhmut was not hampered?

I think I learned from this forum that Bakhmut was not strategically important, and also that advance planned, massed, artillery grid fires against fixed or small geographic areas is one thing that Rus seems to be able to do.

In addition, and yes, as wargammer, I think people like you have tried to make me understand:

1. That to control a position, sometimes it is better not to occupy it, but to be able to put effective fires in and around it.  (Which, possibly, the two UKR flank positions can do to the Bakhmut area, if they do not withdrawal nor get pushed back.)

2. If an opponent does "recon by pushing units ahead, and watching what blows them up", a counter to that is to move the defense revealed units (over an hour, day, week--depending on the operational level), so that no effective information is gained by that recon style.  This, from what I have read here, is something Rus has largely not solved for.  And thus a dispersed, mobile, defense by UKR west of Bakhmut will likely be effective?

 

Again, giving Rus the choice of commiting high quality offensive troops to try pursue, or letting the area go quiet.

 

DF

 

 

[kevinkin]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

You realize that this sentiment is really the problem, right?

Let's not over think this. If Putin's Russia opens up negotiations they are defeated.  At that point there won't be a ceasefire until the terms are in the favor of Ukraine and the west. There seems to be a large group having a common interest in the war continuing almost forever. The former ambassador added nothing. What we don't want is to open up talks which would be a sign of weakness. So if Russia does, that's a good position to be in. Be happy and force it down their throat. You don't have to be a Princeton Grad to be wary of Putin for goodness sake.  

Edited May 20, 2023 by kevinkin

[Haiduk]

Russian BMP-3 was destroyed with three hits by FPV drones, armed with PG-7 warhead. Location - near Mykilske (Vuhledar direction)

Two FPV-drones of 59th mot.inf.brigade hit abandoned Russian tank near Pervomaiske (Avdiivka direction). "Madyar" is commenting ). First likely hit ERA, but second - at engine compartment.

 

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

It's obvious what I disagree with and the quality of the posts are not up for you to decide on alone commissar. 

No, but it was a friendly and constructive suggestion.  Your late night posts seem to be aggressive and not very useful.  Your daytime posts generally are useful.  It is your option what to do with this information.

Though I will point out that I do get to decided, on my own, who posts here and who does not.  I prefer the title of Moderator to Commissar, but each to his own I suppose.

Steve

[akd]

3rd Assault Brigade attacking up a forested gully outside Bakhmut:

https://twitter.com/INTobservers/status/1659584773910667264?s=20

[kevinkin]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Your late night posts seem to be aggressive and not very useful.

I get it, sort of like Saturday Night Live. I will chill out. 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, akd said:

 

Probably the same attack or attack in other day - between Pisky and Pervomaiske. Russian armored attack attempt. "Madyar" is commenting ) Two Russian tanks destroyed by mines.

 

 

 

Edited May 20, 2023 by Haiduk