How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, DerKommissar said:

- The war provided cassus beli to remove all remaining attempts at a democratic process. Repression and propaganda are at all time high, and new measures get rubber stamped with minimal prorest. 

Just ad vocem- from Russian history standpoint, repressions are almost minimal and Putin is treated as very benevolent; maybe 2-3 dozens of various members of state appartus died in mysterious circumstances, and none of high ones. Opposition, as weak as it always was, is scattered or - as matter of exception- put in jails (Kara- Murza issue), but indivudually, not as part of some wide repression programm. Propaganda is indeed raging high.

2 hours ago, DerKommissar said:

- A lot of able-bodied men, especially problematic ones (ie. prisoners, mercs, poor people and minorities) are now dead or crippled. Many middle-class skeptics have emigrated.

Again,second part is correct. However, Putin regime (just like Soviet one) never viewed prisoners as enemies of the state or source of troubles; if so, they serve inspiration for some elements of "mafia-state" culture. Prigozhin himself serves great example here.

Paradoxially, if we put aside former political enemies from "liberal" oppostion like Niemtsov, the most repressed part of Russian society tend to be independent nationalists, i.e. those without krysha or "backup" at Kremlin. There are scores of various gaulaiters and nat-activists that got assasinated or put into corner in violent ways already. Part of them were targeted by Ukrainians probably, but many were clearly removed by Kremlin. Putin instinctivelly cares to not allow any orc-tribe to rise above others.

 

Today there are photos circling showing what Ukrainians claims a company of T-90's parked closely together in Donetsk, gathered for asssault for Maryinka. AFU reportedly beat them with Himars the same night, but so far there is no independent confirmation. If they indeed rocketed them, one could wander what damages could be done by GMLRS to tanks.

 

Edited May 19, 2023 by Beleg85

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, DerKommissar said:

It is organized crime, indeed. Here is a personal conspiracy theory, so please apply salt -- according to taste:

Putin is happy with his disastrous, criminal, war, as it ticked a lot of his crime boss boxes. Such as:

- His capos are at odds with eachother. This disunity makes them easier to divide & conquer.

- He has aggravated NATO, and got it closer to home. Making the populace fear an external threat, 1984-style. Any anti-war sentiment equals to treason. 

- His civil society, elites, and citizens are now complicit in war crimes. Betraying him, will only land them in prison or horrific debt.

- The war provided cassus beli to remove all remaining attempts at a democratic process. Repression and propaganda are at all time high, and new measures get rubber stamped with minimal prorest. 

- A lot of able-bodied men, especially problematic ones (ie. prisoners, mercs, poor people and minorities) are now dead or crippled. Many middle-class skeptics have emigrated.

- The west has severed economic ties, and the east has not. He gets to take over the abandoned businesses and still provide oil to billions. He takes a big cut off of oil, and controls the economy.

Peace sells, but who's buying? Evidently, not Putin, or his goons. They're psychopaths that don't care about human lives or anyone's approval.

I think we better prepare ZSU and NATO to march on Moscow. Otherwise, the best we can hope for is another temporary ceasefire.

Other than the March On Moscow (hello, nuclear weapons to the face) a lot of that bears out. 

[Astrophel]

The strategy at the moment - I think - is to make Russia see sense and go for one of the peace options that will be acceptable to Ukraine.  Such a victory would have the great merit of saving Ukrainian lives.

The pressure is building on all-sides.  At the moment Zelensky is in Saudi Arabia talking about Crimea belonging to the Muslims, while Xi is having a summit with Central Asia talking about helping them defend themselves.  Defend against whom might one ask?  

The pressure is being applied along the cracks in the russian federation as the pressure is being slowly applied in the military field.  The Patriots performed beyond expectations and the F16's will be arriving before the fall.  Bakhmut must be looking more perilous by the day.  And who knows when and where the counter will unleash with, rumour has it, fresh brigades trained and equipped by nato.

On the financial front Russia is now bleeding out - maybe not as fast as we would like - but there is no hiding the failures and the slow success of sanctions.  Europeans did not come close to eating their hamsters this winter and next winter looks well contracted for.  Russian oligarchs are all feeling the pain of Putin's ill-considered stab at a chapter in the history of russian empires.

The tension is becoming unbearable but every day that passes makes Putin's regime look ever more pathetic.

[Rokko]

-1 MTLB, MIA

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1659495424095297538?s=20

[DesertFox]

 

 

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Credit where credit is due, The Brits picked a side in February 2022, and have been utterly steadfast since. All the more impressive for having three prime Ministers in that time period.

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Credit where credit is due, The Brits picked a side in February 2022, and have been utterly steadfast since. All the more impressive for having three prime Ministers in that time period.

Maybe they still have not forgotten the times of 1940-1942 when Britain was in a comparable situation with the Nazis at their throat and dependant on help from across the pond. I guess they still today can relate to how it must have felt back then to how Ukraine must have felt since last year. I am glad that UK is like a rock in the waves and not faltering in its support.

[danfrodo]

I don't have time to watch the combat video included here, but I don't think it's one that's been shared.  Summary for today from my usual cronies:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/19/2170144/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-s-Bakhmut-collapse-bodes-ill-for-its-future-defenses

Says that some of the 'mobile' reserves being sent to bahkmut flanks were a unit basically destroyed in recent fighting and only 6 weeks off the line.  Which bodes well if that's what RU has for mobile reserves.

[womble]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Credit where credit is due, The Brits picked a side in February 2022, and have been utterly steadfast since. All the more impressive for having three prime Ministers in that time period.

Ben Wallace. I hope, with no expectation of satisfaction, that the winners of the next election keep him at Defense, even though he's a Tory, and they won't be. Solid.

[womble]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Barrel wear, Orc style...Some duct tape and Ipoprofen and it will be fine again 

 

 

How do you even pull that without taking the front off the turret? Or will a failure that catstrophic render the chassis irreparable too?

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, womble said:

Ben Wallace. I hope, with no expectation of satisfaction, that the winners of the next election keep him at Defense, even though he's a Tory, and they won't be. Solid.

If the news is correct, then Ben might aim at the succession of Stoltenberg at NATO. Pretty good choice for the job IMHO, but certainly a loss for UKs defence department. Time will tell.

 

 

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Ukraine now has the surging technical and organizational potential to kill far more Russian men far more quickly that Russia can replace them. 

And this year, they'll be able to escalate that potential all through the year,  without stopping . They'll get better and better at killing Ivans, faster and faster, and at steadily less cost to themselves. They'll sit on that "Kill Ivans" button and they're not going to get off until the Job Is Done. 

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/new-nasams-were-prepared-for-ukraine/

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/norway-and-uk-to-provide-ukraine-with-new-mlrs-and-arthur-radars/

Case in point. More NASAMS,  ARTHUR MLRS on the way. 

Every month that passes Ukraine hardens, as a target, while the opposing Russian systems and platforms become less and less effective and, fatally, with no hope of stopping that slide into outright ineffectiveness in a given domain. 

Edited May 19, 2023 by Kinophile

[Eddy]

56 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Maybe they still have not forgotten the times of 1940-1942 when Britain was in a comparable situation with the Nazis at their throat and dependant on help from across the pond

Nah, we just take a dim view of people using deadly nerve agents in one of our cities. Bang out of line.   

Edit: by which I mean the average Brit probably didn't have much of an opinion on Putin. After that they did, and it wasn't a good one. 

Edited May 19, 2023 by Eddy

[Harmon Rabb]

New psyops created by the AFU.

"Captain HIMARS" addresses Russian soldiers. Always unnerving when someone makes a recording speaking, with a covered face and a voice changer.

 

But I don't remember Max Headroom having access to this kind of firepower.

Edited May 19, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[akd]

3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I don't have time to watch the combat video included here, but I don't think it's one that's been shared. 

Here is the direct link:

Parts of this GoPro footage were included in a short doc on the unit previously posted, but this gives a much more clear picture of the assault on the VDV 72nd MRB transmission tower position.

Edited May 19, 2023 by akd

[Eddy]

But who's actually going to provide some F16s for Ukraine I wonder? Rather than just training I mean. Or have I missed something?

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, Eddy said:

But who's actually going to provide some F16s for Ukraine I wonder? Rather than just training I mean. Or have I missed something?

Netherlands has 40 it is phasing out for F-35's. Pretty sure they will move them.

[Eddy]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Netherlands has 40 it is phasing out for F-35's. Pretty sure they will move them.

Ah ok thanks. So these are the equivalent of F16 C/D after the Mid Life Upgrade. Here's hoping ...

[DesertFox]

Too bad... I guess there is a Lucky Strike sponsored smoking event in Mariupol involving some Helis from Bryansk...

 

 

 

Edited May 19, 2023 by DesertFox

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Too bad... I guess there is a Lucky Strike sponsored smoking event in Mariupol involving some Helis from Bryansk...

 

 

I have this vision of various people watching various ISR assets, and thinking "no way, they couldn't possibly be this dumb". After triple checking that they are in fact this dumb, coordinates were dispatched to the appropriate rocket launcher. "Yes, all of them, we are sure, no we can't believe they are this stupid either..."

Edited May 19, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

On 5/18/2023 at 10:14 AM, hcrof said:

Then move up the economic chain while attracting immigration from Russia etc.

No. Never. If we invite Russians in mass here, we will get new 5th column soon and "mini-Russia" inside Ukraine. There are can be exceptions for those, who really have been supporting us and resisting Putin's regime since 2014, but not "10 millions"

There is proverb "scratch Russian liberal and you will see usual imperialist" and "Russian liberal finish himself on Ukrainian question". I see behavior of those Russians, who escaped to Georgia, Kazakhstan or Armenia from economical crisis and mobilization. Russians - no matter they are "vatniks" or "liberals" believe "where we are, there is Russia".  Their behavior toward locals mostly swaggering and arrogant. They resent, why no signs in Russian on the streets, why service mostly in local languiages, they already begin to demand Russian-speaking teachers and Russian classes in schools where their kids go. Those, who will give a shelter to alot of Russians will receive soon own Eastern Estonia, own Germany with organized agressive post-Soviet pro-Russian community, own Brighton Beach. Russians consider they are "hub of universe" and they can do anything in any country, they don't respect local style of life, local culture, they rare will teach local language, they just believe that anybody around them must know Russian. 

I see what write many of so-called "liberals" in Russia now about Ukriane and war and can say - only a wide ditch with crocodiles and Great Wall with turbolaser guns have to be between us, but not inviting of millions to live in Ukraine.

[chris talpas]

Nothing that hasn’t been discussed but still a good strategic summary

 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, akd said:

clear picture of the assault on the VDV transmission tower position.

They mistakingly took 72nd motor-rifle brigade for VDV. There was a remark in twitter

[Flibby]

23 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

They sometimes try to rush infantry, however while classical creeping barrages a la Seelow 1945 can happen, but are relatively rare (effective counterbattery post too much danger to own massed artillery). Defender's modern weapons (precision + range + recon) make difficult even reaching staging areas, much less attacking in force. Thus upgraded infiltration tactics supported by some armour seem like only way of going forward against entrenched enemy that brings some results.

Everything in this war seems much less concentrated than before.

 

Very interesting.

 

I guess the Ukrainian offensive will give us some answers to whether the lack of Rus progress was down to them, or if it's a systematic issue in the current warfare meta.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Here is the direct link:

Parts of this GoPro footage were included in a short doc on the unit previously posted, but this gives a much more clear picture of the assault on the VDV transmission tower position.

Thanks for the direct link.  Yup, I recognized the setting and the SL's voice quite readily.

Can't say the Ukrainians didn't try to avoid pointless deaths of the enemy.

Steve