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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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23 minutes ago, zinz said:

As everyone is looking forward to UGVs I am not so convinced. They have one unsolved problem and that is mobility.

It is important to keep in mind that mobility of the extreme you're talking about hasn't been solved even for existing systems.  Truck mounted weapons platforms, such as Humvee or Wolf, have far more limitations than this:

THeMIS-KT19-6292-3295016136.jpgTHeMIS+UGV+MILREM+Estonia+with+FN+deFNder-2-2049598459.jpgMilrem-Estonian-Defence-League-II-63919975.jpg

 

23 minutes ago, zinz said:

You have all seen the rubble, the mud, the pure chaos that makes any movement complicated. What size of platform do you guys have in mind? 

Size depends on purpose.  For most weapons platforms the THeMIS is the one to focus on as many militaries are already purchasing them.  Roughly 2.5m long by 2m wide by 1.15m tall (not including station) and weighing 1600kg (without payload).

https://milremrobotics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020_twopager_THeMIS_Transport_web.pdf

I've included mostly pictures of only THeMIS UGVs, but tossed the wheeled fans a couple of bones.

23 minutes ago, zinz said:

The weasel was mentioned. That is not a small vehicle. 3-4 tons. 1.9m wide about 4m long. Yes that is big enough to drive over a trench or through mud and rubble. Anything smaller will get bogged down in a real combat zone real fast.

Untrue.  Bogging is a direct relationship between the vehicle's ground contact, power:weight, and overall weight.  The THeMIS product has less ground pressure than most any other vehicle out there.  0,12 kg/cm2 without mission package, a Human is 1.12 kg/cm2. 

23 minutes ago, zinz said:

What could be implemented easily is a remote control option to drive around the next corner to do some shooting without risking the operators life. For a vehicle of this size how do you move the operators around? With another vehicle? On foot?

Generally the operators are right there with the vehicle.  Most UGVs have options for "tether" controls in addition to radio based.

THeMIS-KT19-4-4425-244494714.jpg

23 minutes ago, zinz said:

How the UVGs runs over your own guys because the operator was not looking at the screen for a few seconds? 

I watched a video of a Ukrainian BMP-2 running over two of his own guys in reverse while panicking, so not sure what your point is other than UGVs don't magically make traditional problems go away.  However, I would much rather be run over by a THeMIS product than any other existing armored vehicle.

23 minutes ago, zinz said:

Small ones for an MG I have not seen any design that is truly mobile and doesn't get stuck at the next obstacle. I mean there has been research on this topic for a century on remote controlled vehicles. But sofar we are not much closer to a reliable solution than the Germans with their Goliath. 

You've not been keeping up with the news ;)  They are already employing these in military roles as well as things like search & rescue, mining, utility line work, etc.:

fg_2074871-idr-2350-815330993.jpg

2-3743717636.jpg3838453-1-1266603701.jpg

126804038_1979891955485468_4182157420758493270_o-1024x576-781958373.jpg

Milrem-Estonian-Defence-League-2680954796.jpgTITAN-UGV-2714104691.jpgEstonian+infantry+platoon+deploys+Milrem+Robotics+THeMIS+UGV+for+first+time+in+Mali+(1)-1452771240.jpgmbda-showcases-brimstone-application-on-milrem-robotics-unmanned-ground-vehicle-2712033798.jpg

23 minutes ago, zinz said:

Another thing not to underestimate is maintenance and repairs. Especially in a war zone. The jammed gun will not fix itself. The stone stuck in the track will not remove itself. The dirt at your sensors will stay there until they get removed. No we don't have robots for those tasks. 

Again, similar problems with existing vehicles EXCEPT that UGVs are vastly easier to get unstuck and to transport if broken down.

23 minutes ago, zinz said:

Also those systems are sitting ducks for kamikaze drones. 

And again, less so than other vehicles due to their size.  Kamikaze drones have difficulty hitting small targets, especially if they can't find them or they are in wooded terrain.

maxresdefault-4125621730.jpg

23 minutes ago, zinz said:

Land and air are two completely different domains with very different engineering challenges. 

Yup, but there's plenty of engineers to do both ;)

Another benefit of UGVs is that they are air and sea transportable to a much higher degree than any other form of vehicle.

Steve

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If you are gonna lie, might as well go big!

Russia stated that its Kinzhal destroyed 5 Patriot missile system launchers with one attack (yahoo.com)
 

Quote

 

Ukrainska Pravda
Wed, May 17, 2023 at 11:26 AM PDT
The Russian Defence Ministry claims that five launchers of the American Patriot air defence system were "completely destroyed" by a hypersonic Kinzhal strike on 16 May in Kyiv.

Source: Russia’s Ministry of Defence on Telegram

Quote: "According to reliably confirmed data, on 16 May, as a result of the strike by the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system on Kyiv, a multifunctional radar station was hit and completely destroyed, as well as five launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system manufactured in the United States."

 

 

And yet they still arrested the scientists who helped develop it?  Yep that is typically what you do for a wildly successful military weapon...

 

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7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is important to keep in mind that mobility of the extreme you're talking about hasn't been solved even for existing systems.  Truck mounted weapons platforms, such as Humvee or Wolf, have far more limitations than this:

THeMIS-KT19-6292-3295016136.jpgTHeMIS+UGV+MILREM+Estonia+with+FN+deFNder-2-2049598459.jpgMilrem-Estonian-Defence-League-II-63919975.jpg

 

Size depends on purpose.  For most weapons platforms the THeMIS is the one to focus on as many militaries are already purchasing them.  Roughly 2.5m long by 2m wide by 1.15m tall (not including station) and weighing 1600kg (without payload).

https://milremrobotics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020_twopager_THeMIS_Transport_web.pdf

I've included mostly pictures of only THeMIS UGVs, but tossed the wheeled fans a couple of bones.

Untrue.  Bogging is a direct relationship between the vehicle's ground contact, power:weight, and overall weight.  The THeMIS product has less ground pressure than most any other vehicle out there.  0,12 kg/cm2 without mission package, a Human is 1.12 kg/cm2. 

Generally the operators are right there with the vehicle.  Most UGVs have options for "tether" controls in addition to radio based.

THeMIS-KT19-4-4425-244494714.jpg

I watched a video of a Ukrainian BMP-2 running over two of his own guys in reverse while panicking, so not sure what your point is other than UGVs don't magically make traditional problems go away.  However, I would much rather be run over by a THeMIS product than any other existing armored vehicle.

You've not been keeping up with the news ;)  They are already employing these in military roles as well as things like search & rescue, mining, utility line work, etc.:

fg_2074871-idr-2350-815330993.jpg

2-3743717636.jpg3838453-1-1266603701.jpg

126804038_1979891955485468_4182157420758493270_o-1024x576-781958373.jpg

Milrem-Estonian-Defence-League-2680954796.jpgTITAN-UGV-2714104691.jpgEstonian+infantry+platoon+deploys+Milrem+Robotics+THeMIS+UGV+for+first+time+in+Mali+(1)-1452771240.jpgmbda-showcases-brimstone-application-on-milrem-robotics-unmanned-ground-vehicle-2712033798.jpg

Again, similar problems with existing vehicles EXCEPT that UGVs are vastly easier to get unstuck and to transport if broken down.

And again, less so than other vehicles due to their size.  Kamikaze drones have difficulty hitting small targets, especially if they can't find them or they are in wooded terrain.

maxresdefault-4125621730.jpg

Yup, but there's plenty of engineers to do both ;)

Another benefit of UGVs is that they are air and sea transportable to a much higher degree than any other form of vehicle.

Steve

https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/landwarfareintl/idex-2023-kamikaze-combat-ugv-enters-production/

This with legs and autonomous targeting.  Cheap and many of them, a minefield that can walk.  Denial of land battle space.  Next 5-10, maybe sooner.

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28 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

While Googling UGVs I stumbled across this headline (of unknown provenance).

The UGV in the photo looks like a minuature WWI tank, I suppose a design optimized for driving over obstacles.

Devid-Liik-tookoda-scaled-1.jpg

military-unmanned-ground-drones-can-now-follow-people-around-167104-7.jpg

I know I've seen this image before, I'd just forgotten about it. Something like this is what I was imagining in my earlier post, just with an ATGM, HMG, or AGL mounted on it (maybe an autocannon at a stretch). Add in enough AI that a single operator could effectively command a platoon or 3 or 4 of these things and we're cookin.

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18 minutes ago, poesel said:

What happened to this?

https://www.darpa.mil/about-us/timeline/legged-squad-support-system

 

This is now over 10 years old. Can't get much better for bad terrain (except for a six legged version).

Still very much under development (second video has some shots of it).  For sure these types of robots are in active development for all kinds of non-military purposes:

 

This video contains the sorts of stuff we are very much afraid will become commercially viable...

 

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1 hour ago, sburke said:

And yet they still arrested the scientists who helped develop it?  Yep that is typically what you do for a wildly successful military weapon...

That really is the tell, now isn't it. I also suspect a bunch of Russian weapons engineers are frantically trying the that new CIA telegram channel. Once the "leopards eating peoples faces party" starts in on people you actually know, buying a ticket to Argentina or San Diego with a hard drive full sensitive information suddenly looks very attractive. 

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29 minutes ago, poesel said:

What happened to this?

https://www.darpa.mil/about-us/timeline/legged-squad-support-system

 

This is now over 10 years old. Can't get much better for bad terrain (except for a six legged version).

I am almost sure it was initially found to be too loud, and too easy to see on thermals. But the tech on that sort thing improves continually. They will get to the tipping point fairly soon, if they haven't already.

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9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

That really is the tell, now isn't it. I also suspect a bunch of Russian weapons engineers are frantically trying the that new CIA telegram channel. Once the "leopards eating peoples faces party" starts in on people you actually know, buying a ticket to Argentina or San Diego with a hard drive full sensitive information suddenly looks very attractive. 

It really starts to look like the Stalinist way of doing things. Missiles don't work? Don't blame the system, blame whoever is close to the project. Recruitment lagging? Don't blame the system, blame a couple of handy recruiting officers. Can't take Bakhmut? Don't blame the system, blame.....

Surely Prigozhin can see what's coming. That's what all of the drama about the flanks is about.

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1 hour ago, MikeyD said:

Awhile back on this site there was video of Ukraine testing a landmine kamikaze UGV. I reminded me of nothing so much as the old WWII Soviet 'dog mine', a pooch with a vest that they trained to run underneath tanks.

A "light" article on the development of this FPV UGV with a few details - https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/army-of-ground-drones/

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54 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It really starts to look like the Stalinist way of doing things. Missiles don't work? Don't blame the system, blame whoever is close to the project. Recruitment lagging? Don't blame the system, blame a couple of handy recruiting officers. Can't take Bakhmut? Don't blame the system, blame.....

Surely Prigozhin can see what's coming. That's what all of the drama about the flanks is about.

 

Just want to reiterate the end of the article everyone's referring to for clarity, since a few forumgoers are writing as if these three were arrested after yesterday's strikes...

Quote

The arrest of Shiplyuk, director of the institute's Siberian branch, was reported by Russian state media last August, and Maslov, its chief researcher, last July.

An investigative source told TASS that Maslov was suspected of revealing state secrets on missile technology.

Monday's letter is the first time the arrest of Zvegintsev, who is described as an expert of aerodynamics, has been made public.

edited to add bold.

Edited by Homo_Ferricus
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1 hour ago, billbindc said:

It really starts to look like the Stalinist way of doing things. Missiles don't work? Don't blame the system, blame whoever is close to the project. Recruitment lagging? Don't blame the system, blame a couple of handy recruiting officers. Can't take Bakhmut? Don't blame the system, blame.....

Umm, except ...

"The arrest of Shiplyuk, director of the institute's Siberian branch, was reported by Russian state media last August, and Maslov, its chief researcher, last July."

The third guy was placed under house arrest last month. 

Edit: Oops, H_F beat me to it

Edited by Sojourner
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2 hours ago, sburke said:

If you are gonna lie, might as well go big!

It's not even a lie, sort of. Before the other day UKR had a bunch of Patriot missiles. Today they have 30 fewer directly as a result of RUS airstrike. QED.

Win!

Edited by JonS
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Just now, Sojourner said:

Umm, except ...

"The arrest of Shiplyuk, director of the institute's Siberian branch, was reported by Russian state media last August, and Maslov, its chief researcher, last July."

The third guy was placed under house arrest last month. 

 

and Monday was the first public announcement of the arrest of Zvengintsev.  Whatever the reasons for their original arrests, they are looking to be scape goats now.

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1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

The difference between these two images fills me with hope for the future of Ukraine after this war.

One of, if not only, silver lining in all of this is the opportunity to replace the hideous Soviet-era prison-block architecture. Hopefully, Ukraine will continue to rebuild in a way that reflects her true heritage and culture.

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39 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

 

Just want to reiterate the end of the article everyone's referring to for clarity, since a few forumgoers are writing as if these three were arrested after yesterday's strikes...

edited to add bold.

Thanks...still pretty Stalinist. 

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37 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

hideous Soviet-era prison-block architecture

Despite that, though, in a lot of ways commie blocks are pretty great. Weirdly.

 

Edited by JonS
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3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Still very much under development (second video has some shots of it).  For sure these types of robots are in active development for all kinds of non-military purposes:

 

This video contains the sorts of stuff we are very much afraid will become commercially viable...

 

For those interested, Lex Fridman recently did an interview with their CEO

 

 

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