How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Centurian52]

12 hours ago, kevinkin said:

ISW has been careful and steadfast in this regard. They are not watching this war through a keyhole.

They are. They are trying to piece together what is happening using only open-source information, like the rest of us. But they are very professional in interpreting what information comes through that keyhole.

[Lethaface]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I for one do not know this to be true.  In fact, I know it to be completely false.  When I watch these videos I am looking for things which I can not get from ISW, AP, or any other source.  Even niche military themed reporting by people like Perun.

Each video shows something useful.  Every.  Single.  One.  The best way to understand something novel is through repeated experimentation and/or observation.  It's a basic tenant of the scientific method. Even seeing the same thing repeatedly has value.

The more videos I watch, the better I get at understanding the range of actions, limitations, effects, outcomes, etc.  If I see 1000 videos of grenades getting dropped right onto people's heads, I'm going to form a different opinion than watching 1000 videos where it only happens once.

For sure few people reading this thread have as much reason to watch everything posted as I do.  However, few people also have a reason to follow the daily details of politics, economics, military procurement, technology, or any of the other topics raised here.  They are all "keyholes" in their own ways.  Even ISW's reports are keyholes as each day's report is nothing more than a tiny window on the war and, taken on its own, largely meaningless.  It is only by reading ISW every day that one starts to build up a bigger picture.

For sure there are some people like that, as can be easily seen looking at the comments section where the videos are posted.  However, I do not think that's the sort of crowd we have here.  I know I don't giggle when I see a head blown off.  In fact, I rather not see anybody die at all.  But since dying is a pretty central part of warfare, it really is hard to avoid when studying it.

Steve

Agreed. When I was younger I didn't mind to watch more gorey stuff war footage, but because of life experiences I now refrain to view too much of those type of stuff (my soul has enough scratches ).

However watching footage of the war, not necessarily the gorey focused ones, does indeed provide more information than the ISWs etc do sec. Plus I always look to verify information from various sources and not only stick to one source, even if that's a good one like ISW. 

Especially in the early beginning of the war a lot could be learned from watching the footage posted all over the internet. Another drone video might not always add to the already established picture, but without analyzing them one won't know.
Plus nobody is obliged to watch 'war porn' if they don't like to watch it. It's a bit of a holier than thou discussion imo.

[Centurian52]

11 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Then why look through the keyhole in the first place. Warfare Porn? 

Having a pretty good idea of what is going taking place on the other side of the door is not the same thing as knowing exactly what is taking place. But it makes it much easier to interpret the information you are getting through the keyhole.

[Centurian52]

8 hours ago, JonS said:

This thread might be the single best piece of crowd-sourced OS analysis of the war available, but that doesn't mean that everyone posting here is contributing to that value.

I think that's a pretty good point to be made about crowd sourced information in general. Crowd sourcing is definitely a very effective way to get good information on a subject (depending on the number of people participating (the worst Wikipedia articles are the ones that have the fewest people contributing to them)). But that comes with the caveat that it requires good interpretation and sorting of the information that has been contributed in order to get the best results.

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Agreed. When I was younger I didn't mind to watch more gorey stuff war footage, but because of life experiences I now refrain to view too much of those type of stuff (my soul has enough scratches ).

Oddly enough, I watch very little "violence porn" on TV or movies precisely because I don't like watching violence for entertainment.  Which means there's huge sections of streaming channels I'll never watch (Squid Games, SAW movies, etc.).

21 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

However watching footage of the war, not necessarily the gorey focused ones, does indeed provide more information than the ISWs etc do sec. Plus I always look to verify information from various sources and not only stick to one source, even if that's a good one like ISW. 

I've read nearly every ISW report since this war started.  I have yet to see a discussion by them about how many grenades it takes to subdue a bunker or how long a tank might drive after being hit by a Javelin.  These details are unimportant to just about everybody except for this group here so it's either source material or nothing for much of this.

On a related note, we are possibly working with a group on battlefield psychological modeling (funding isn't certain at this stage).  You had better believe those guys are watching the same videos we are.  In fact, we've shared links occasionally during casual discussions because there is obvious value in them.

Steve

[Centurian52]

2 hours ago, akd said:

 

Another reason why Battlefront needs to make CMSU. I really need these Ukrainian style Challenger 2s.

[Lethaface]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

On a related note, we are possibly working with a group on battlefield psychological modeling (funding isn't certain at this stage).  You had better believe those guys are watching the same videos we are.  In fact, we've shared links occasionally during casual discussions because there is obvious value in them.

Steve

Fortunately many of the footage has scrambled the 'less pleasant' bits.

Anyway that related note sounds very interesting, at least to me.  Psychological modelling of the battlefield effect on troops etc is imo an aspect which most wargames/sims don't have too high on their prio. While it is certainly a significant factor in the conduct of war.

Good luck on the funding!

I'd expect some professional customers to also be interested in such features. 

[A Canadian Cat]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine knows better than anybody other than including the Russians how f'd up their lack of central command is. 

There fixed that for ya

[Lethaface]

8 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Another reason why Battlefront needs to make CMSU. I really need these Ukrainian style Challenger 2s.

I for one don't know whether adding Kontakt-1 would actually have much effect for a Chally-2, maybe on the sides for extra rpg protection?

Sorry if I spoil the meme

[danfrodo]

As my friend Sherlock once said, "the plot thickens".  UKR making small attacks against depleted RU forces -- depleted thru unbelievable RU stupidity.  Mixed messages from every level of UKR govt. More & more gear and trained units coming online.  Infighting amongst the RU gangs around Bakhmut.  If UKR can continue to weaken RU while getting stronger, why risk everything in May/June?  Keep increasing the corrosion and then hit later.

war porn?  Maybe.  Also something we've rarely seen-- tactical level fighting, which isn't just porn, it of great interest to those interest in that subject, like me and many of those on the forum and everyone that plays CM games.  Do I like seeing people die & be maimed -- no.  Do I like seeing those that would threaten not just UKR but countries beyond that getting knocked out of action -- yes.  So, once again, the need to hold two conflicting concepts in one's head at once.

Including this summary today.  Not a lot we don't already know but there's a Downfall meme that is really really pointed and hilarious.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/10/2168549/-Ukraine-Update-Russian-military-teeters-on-the-brink-of-chaos-as-Ukrainian-forces-advance

 

[MikeyD]

Read back over the many many posts here. They quote Russian politicians, Western politicians, Ukrainian politicians, Belarussian politicians, the New York Times, the Guardian, Russian TV, Pentagon officials, Kremlin officials, think tank papers, generals in the field on both sides, foot soldiers in the field on both sides, manufacturers, activists, historians, economists, satellite imagery and close combat footage, history books involving similar conflicts, they cover the granular detail of individual combat as well as geopolitical fallout. If this is viewing the war 'through a keyhole' its a mighty mighty big keyhole. Basically the only source not cited here is... uh... Brietbart, (if Brietbart still exists).

[sross112]

I think a lot of us are looking beyond the grisly stuff in most of the videos. That is probably because most of us are beyond our prime. The young and the dumb watch them for the gorey factor, but I think at least a majority of the people here are looking at the rest of the information provided.

Personally, I have found that I am watching the evolution of the drone more than the actual "kill shots". The complexity of drone operations continues to evolve and watching the videos is how you see that. Think way back to the early days and it was a solitary drone used for artillery observation and now sometimes we are seeing three levels of drones being used in the same videos, so at the same time and place. Used for overall command awareness of the battle, recon up close, and actual attack. And that is just what we are seeing. Then the advent of the FPV drones working in concert with the recon drones. Now whole dedicated drone warfare units are being trained up so who knows what all levels and capabilities they will bring with them with evolving tactics and platforms. Watching the videos gives some insight into these things that would otherwise be a few years away in the books that will cover it.

Also, like @The_Capt said, looking at all the other stuff gives good insight into a unit's field craft. That gives you insight into their training and discipline levels. I think it was just yesterday on the surrendering video that people were talking about the bodies laying around and what that means psychologically and even professionally about the unit occupying that space. You can tell a lot about the overall quality of a unit from how they move individually and as a group, how they maintain their equipment, what equipment is observed, etc. These observations help with the overall understanding of the situation in that area.

Overall I think there is a lot of value from the video footage of this war. There is a lot of nasty stuff posted out there as well and sadly a bunch of it is just about the grisly side of it. Almost everything I've seen on here has some value to it, whereas on other sites it seems to be much more of the nasty shock value stuff.

[Centurian52]

1 hour ago, Artkin said:

Whats the weight on this baby?

Well, the Challenger 2 is already a bit on the heavy side. So I think it's probably safe to say that this thing is a bit of a chonker.

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Centurian52 said:

Well, the Challenger 2 is already a bit on the heavy side. So I think it's probably safe to say that this thing is a bit of a chonker.

I think the plan is to let one drive onto the Kerch bridge and watch it collapse from the weight.

[MikeyD]

Remember, the Brits themselves put reactive armor on the lower bow of Challenger after  an anti-tank hit (an Armbrust?) took off the foot of a driver in Iraq, if memory serves.

Edited May 11, 2023 by MikeyD

[Beleg85]

Those small counterattacks are getting more numerous; one Russian TG wrote about assault groups made of 2-3 tanks and platoon size Ukrainian infantry, targeting weaker regular Russian troops. It's still local and conducted by forces at place, but perhaps we are starting to see begginings of shaping operations.

 

[Artkin]

18 minutes ago, sburke said:

I think the plan is to let one drive onto the Kerch bridge and watch it collapse from the weight.

LMAO

[Haiduk]

Unusual application of T-54B according to words of one Russian soldier:

T-54B, Southern direction. A month ago up to the company of such vehicles (T-54B and T-55) was handed over to howitzer battalion. They work from close positions, the crew has 3 men. Crews were assembled from tank battalion and artillety, after this they had week training. I can't say about whole theater, but we had usage of them as SP-howitzers 

Looks like Russians in some units have critical lack of artillery, probably in motor-rifle regiments of Territorial Troops, so old tanks are given to them instead artillery. 

 

Edited May 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Artkin]

41 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

I for one don't know whether adding Kontakt-1 would actually have much effect for a Chally-2, maybe on the sides for extra rpg protection?

Sorry if I spoil the meme

I bet that upper hull plate is extremely vulnerable as well as the turret ring. 

Dont forget the infamous driver who lost his legs to an export atgm.

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Unusual application of T-54B according to words of one Russian soldier:

T-54B, Southern direction. A month ago up to the company of such vehicles (T-54B and T-55) was handed over to howitzer battalion. They work from close positions, the crew has 3 men. Crews were assembled from tank battalion and artillety, after this they had week training. I can't say about whole theater, but we had usage of them as SP-howitzers 

Looks like Russians in some units have critical lack of artillery, probably in motor-rifle regiments of Territorial Troops, so old tanks are given to them instead artillery. 

 

I was laughing at these at first, then realized they can still kill people.  It's an armored cannon and has ammo, so it can be useful.  I am still laughing at the fact that RU is so desperate that it's expending resources to get these running and shipped to UKR, plus finding ammo for it.  Lot of frontage to cover and these, sadly, could help any little group that otherwise has no HE / AT support.

[Centurian52]

I occasionally post updates on the war to Facebook, to keep my friends and family in the loop. I'm still trying to piece together what happened in this attack near Bakhmut based on ISW's report and what people have posted here. So before I actually post this, and potentially mislead my friends and family, I submit the following for comments, criticisms, additions, and revisions:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From what I can piece together, the Ukrainians conducted two limited counterattacks on May 9th and 10th. One to the northwest of Bakhmut, the other to the southwest of Bakhmut (neither were in the city itself). The one that I mentioned yesterday, pending details, seems to have been the one to the southwest, occurring on May 9th. The area was apparently held by the Russian 72nd motorized rifle brigade. There are a few competing narratives about what happened. The most likely version is that the brigade's 6th and 8th companies suffered heavy losses, but the brigade itself was not destroyed. It is the most specific version of the story, and other versions could be consistent with it with some interpretation. The story that "the brigade was destroyed" could easily be an exaggeration of "its 6th and 8th companies suffered heavy losses". And that it broke and ran is completely consistent with two of its companies suffering heavy losses. At least one Ukrainian spokesman has claimed that the brigade suffered serious losses, but was still intact, which is also consistent. The Ukrainians reportedly advanced 2.6 kilometers along a 3km front as a result of this attack, though none of my usual sources are able to independently verify this.

That would be a good result on its own for a limited counterattack. But a Wagner assault group reportedly also moved into the area shortly after the attack in order to stop the Ukrainian advance and re-establish the frontline. The Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade (the unit that conducted the attack) had already stopped and entrenched itself, and the Wagner assault group blundered straight into their positions.

There are already some estimates of the Russian casualties, although they should be taken with the usual grain of salt. Prigozhin, the owner of Wagner PMC, claims they lost 500 men. I'm not sure if that number applies to 72nd's losses, Wagner's losses, or both, or whether they refer to just killed or total casualties. I don't normally put a lot of stock in what Prigozhin says. He views the regular Russian military as a rival, not a partner, so he likes to play up their failures in order to make Wagner look better. Ironically, he also likes to play up the difficulties faced by Wagner forces in order to squeeze more resources out of the regular Russian military, which he is dependent on for supplies. But in this case his claim seems to be corroborated by a statement from the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, to the effect that his claim was accurate (although they may also be biased). The confirmed Russian losses are somewhere from 69-92 (either 64 or 87 Russian bodies were collected, and 5 prisoners taken). Based on the confirmed body count I'd say that 250-500 total casualties is plausible, closer to 500 if there are uncounted Russian dead (there have generally been at least 3 or 4 WIA for every KIA in this war so far). Even if the brigade was at full strength, 500 casualties would be a serious blow, representing a loss of about 25% of the brigade in a single action. But the brigade has been in action for some time, and was probably nowhere near its full strength. So this may have represented an even heavier blow to its remaining strength.

By itself, this action is not significant. But it may be significant as an indicator of what is happening in the larger picture. This attack, and the attack to the northwest of Bakhmut, together indicate that the Russians have well and truly run out of steam in Bakhmut (mere inches from the finish-line at that (the last report I heard was that the Ukrainians only hold 2.35 square kilometers in the westernmost corner of the city)). It was looking like the Russian attack had culminated about a week ago, but I didn't want to say anything yet in case it was just a lull. At that point the Ukrainians held 2.5 square kilometers. At a pace of 0.15 square kilometers a week, it would take the Russians another 4 months to secure the remaining 2.35 square kilometers of the city. That's almost the amount of time it took them to secure the first 39.1 square kilometers of the city. So to say that the Russian advance has noticeably slowed down is an understatement.

More importantly, this is only the latest in a series of small, limited counterattacks that have been occurring along the entire frontline in Ukraine. I don't know whether these attacks are occurring on an ad-hoc basis on the initiative of local commanders, or as part of a larger plan to shape the battlefield in preparation for the main offensive. If the former, it means that local commanders are seeing more and more openings to conduct limited attacks, which bodes very poorly for Russia's chances of resisting the big offensive (keep in mind that none of the units conducting these counterattacks so far are the 9-12 fresh brigades that are still being held back, and have been specifically trained and equipped, for the upcoming offensive). If the latter, then it means we are already seeing the opening phase of the big offensive. Whether they are part of a larger plan or not, the combined effect of these attacks will be to dilute whatever reinforcements the Russians have available by forcing them to respond to local emergencies, cause confusion about where the main offensive will land, and possibly even create cracks in the Russian line ahead of the main offensive. 

I still don't know when the main offensive will begin. My gut says it will be any day now, but my gut is biased by impatience. I think it will most likely start in June. That is based on current weather forecasts and an assumption that the Ukrainians will want more than two weeks without rain. That is supported by statements by Zelensky to the effect that they need more time for more of the promised equipment to arrive. There are plausible options for offensive actions along pretty much the entire frontline. But my guess is still that it will land in Zaporizhia Oblast, aimed at reaching the coast and cutting off Russian forces in Crimea and southern Kherson Oblast. The latest news I've heard is that Britain has now provided Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles, which have enough range to reach the Kerch bridge from anywhere along the coast of Zaporizhia Oblast, meaning that trapping Russian forces in Crimea is now a realistic option.

[Harmon Rabb]

Seeing as the United Kingdom sending the AFU Storm Shadow missiles is such a hot topic today here is Ben Hodges's take on the news.

I approve this message.

 

Here is a bonus tweet for you guys, I can't be the only one around here who enjoyed watching the television show Vikings. If you watched the show I'm sure you remember this lady.

 

Edited May 11, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

40 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Well, the Challenger 2 is already a bit on the heavy side. So I think it's probably safe to say that this thing is a bit of a chonker.

Just making sure that people understand that picture was photoshopped.  The whole sticking ERA on stuff has apparently become quite a meme lately.  From what I can tell it's Ukraine making fun of Russia sticking them on everything.

Steve

[Haiduk]

President Zelenskiy made a statement today that Ukraine should wait with counter-offensive, because our military need more time to got all Western equipment, arriving with small batches.

 "With [what we already have] we can go forward, and, I think, be successful. But we'd lose a lot of people. I think that's unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/11/7401660/

In that time Prigozhyn said today that Ukraine started own offensive around Bakhmut and again blamed MoD units, that their coward withdrawal from positions could put Wagner in very hard situation. He blamed again MoD in ammunition sabotage (as if PMC got only 10 % of own demands). Then he issued for Wagner "no one step back" order.

[kimbosbread]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Exactly.  So right now the simple gravity drop grenades will make living in rubble a death sentence.  Next we will see UAS with horizontal GL capability so even in buildings the little bastards buzzing around will make a defenders life hell.  And then someone is going to put a single grenade loitering munition into a building and fly it room to room.

This is totally feasible right now for a hobbyist with sufficient time. A while back I was trying to implement depth-first-search for a drone to explore my house room by room. It’s doable with the right training data, which has been a big focus for DARPA (constructing precise 3d cities etc for to train ml-based optical distance estimation, so just use camera for navigation no lidar nothing). But then I got a new job and wife had a kid.

I think I’ve said this before, but the real innovation will be intelligence on the control side, ie ChatGPT but for translating complex commands to autonomous systems without requiring 1000 lines of code. “Drone Swarm, please go take out the trucks at the head of the column, but wait for infantry to dismount before attacking them”. 

Edited May 11, 2023 by kimbosbread