How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Air Forces Command reportedly really angry about this leak from Defense Express. That's why wasn't official report about types of targets shot down over Kyiv in night on 4th May. Air Forces now officially claimed there wasn't "Kinzhal" tracked in our airspace in this night and Defense Express info is fake. But all Kyiv heard in 2:40 this triple explosion in the sky and this of course wasn't Shakhed. 

Today one serviceman of some radar or SAM brigade wrote a post in twitter (already is deleted obviously on demand), where told if Defense Express issued this info, then he also can confirm that their unit tracked "Kinzhal" on US radar, which have 600 km range. Also he told Rissians considers "Kinzhal" as hyper-sonic missile, but in real this not quite right. This missile launches when it carrier achievs hyper-sonic speed, further the missile is gradually losing own speed and on final section of trajectory has a speed higher, that usual ballistic missile, but already not hypersonic, so it can be intercepted with some probability.

Looks like, AF command didn't want make publicity this info, that now we can successfully shot down "Kinzhals". I think, US side also should be surprised.

And they are right to be angry, people need to understand when to listen. I understand understanding is greatly improved latrine digging....

That said, the Russians know they launched the bleeping thing, and even their excuse for a targeting apparatus ought to be able to figure out they didn't hit what they were aiming at, and the light show over Kyiv was not exactly subtle. So this is a great time to drive the point home about not posting things while stakes are limited, at least by shooting war standards.

[Jiggathebauce]

For those who follow the misadventures of Z propagandists, Gonzalo Lira got himself in Ukrainian custody, good riddance 

 

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Perun's last video was on hypersonic missiles. In it he talks about their development, cost, and use. The US had a program, but they ended it awhile back. Could it be that they are super expensive and they knew from testing that they were vulnerable to interception by the Patriot and maybe other systems? It would make sense that you would stop dumping a bunch of money into a system that wasn't going to give you a lot of benefit over what you already have if you know they are more vulnerable to interception than most people think. It also makes sense that the US and UA leadership would want that knowledge contained as China and Russia are dumping big resources into their projects that they think aren't interceptable. That would explain the hush hush attitude when normally it would be broadcasted as pretty big news. 

This sort of thing can also explain some of the hesitation to give the UA some systems. Russia, and China by osmosis, is learning a lot about HIMARS, Starstreak, Javelin, and now Patriot capabilities that the US and allies probably didn't want them to know.  Might be that ATACMS has some abilities that they don't want to show off or technology that they don't want to risk falling into potential enemy hands? It only takes one dud. 

You can quibble about some of the air defense stuff, but everything else you just listed is actually ~20 years old. When you consider the extent and persistence of Chines and Russian espionage, if they are learning much new the regimes in question need to shoot whole buildings full of people for incompetence. The real secrets are how to MAKE the critical parts of various systems, and make them with enough quality control that they work reliably. And almost all of it is in the process of being superseded by a new generation of gear. Ukraine is beating Russia like a drum with stuff NATO considers borderline obsolete.

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Perun's last video was on hypersonic missiles. In it he talks about their development, cost, and use. The US had a program, but they ended it awhile back. Could it be that they are super expensive and they knew from testing that they were vulnerable to interception by the Patriot and maybe other systems?

That is a reasonable assumption to make.  The US does not have a track record of backing off expensive technologies when presented with technical challenges.  However, I can think of at least one example of them backing off something they thought a) would be too expensive to make work and b) there was a better alternative.  Exhibit A?  The M247 Sgt York:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M247_Sergeant_York

After spending tractor trailer loads of money they had something that marginally worked.  With more trailer loads they might have got it to be more usable, but at the same time the costs and sizes of ground based anti-aircraft missile systems were coming down.  Wisely, they cut their losses on the Sgt York and switched over to something that had a lot more promise.

Steve

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

Perun's last video was on hypersonic missiles. In it he talks about their development, cost, and use. The US had a program, but they ended it awhile back.

I think they ended the boost-glide hypersonic since it was too hard to place on an airframe. But they are researching scram-jet hypersonic weapons: "scramjet-powered Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, or HACM, program."

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/03/whats-next-us-hypersonic-efforts-air-force-shelves-arrw/384655/

 

[Chibot Mk IX]

17 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I think they ended the boost-glide hypersonic since it was too hard to place on an airframe. But they are researching scram-jet hypersonic weapons: "scramjet-powered Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, or HACM, program."

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/03/whats-next-us-hypersonic-efforts-air-force-shelves-arrw/384655/

 

The terminated HGV project belongs to USAF.  That is a wise decision because AGM-183A ARRW is not fit into USAF arsenal very well. It doesn't improve USAF's strategic(nuclear) strike ability. And in the face of the vast arsenal of tactical weapons in the USAF, ARRW project appears redundant at tactical strike level.

Invest into HACM/Scramjet can be helpful in the next generation air to air missile R&D project

 

 

The US army and USN's joint HGV program LRHW/IRCPS is still in progress. Army just deploy one unit in training mode. 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2023 by Chibot Mk IX

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, kevinkin said:

If Prigozhin's complaints amount low ammo are true, 

I don't believe a word out of his mouth. Not a syllable. If someone else says something and he agrees then fine. 

But notes from Bahkmut state that Russia is leveling the last sections rather than fight through. Makes tactical sense. So where's this supposed shell shortage? They're firing more now than a month ago. 

It's far more likely that Pig is pivoting away from the end if the battle to maintain actual independence and also avoid being seen to be directed. 

[chrisl]

7 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Not sure if anybody already brought up this theory, but could the Kremlin drone attacks have been conducted by Putin himself, in order to test his own air defences?

If I were him, I'd look at videos from Ukraine and be paranoid about the risk of a drone suddenly crashing in through my own window at any moment.

Looking at the miserable performance of the Russian army so far, and the succesful Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil storage etc, I'd be wondering if all those AA guns I placed on tall buildings around my HQ would actually save me in case of drone attack.

Maybe he just got to the last episode in season one of

****spoiler*****The Diplomat and decided that nobody would believe the Ukrainians could hit the Kuznetsov*****/spoiler*****

Edited May 5, 2023 by chrisl

[Haiduk]

Javelin launch of 59th mot.inf brigade. Russian tank was hit. SW from Avdiivka

 

[Haiduk]

Bakhmut. Thermite ammunition is used on the area holding by UKR troops

All this hysteria of Prigizhyn about "withdrawal" is an attempt to blame MoD (Shoigu) for society in next failed deadline - obviously on 9th of May Bakhmut will not be taken completely. By the way - Wagners now on top of fasion in Russia even among many people who were indifferent to this war.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Fun propaganda from our Ukrainian friends to our British friends:

 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Belarus institutes "temporary" border control measures with Russia.  Gee, I wonder why a Russian friendly country with a long border with Russia would want to make it more difficult for Russians to get in.  Pending mobilization in Russia?  Nah, probably a coincidence.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-other_news/3705304-belarus-introduces-entry-control-at-border-with-russia.html

Report that Leopard 1 should be ready by June 1st:

Steve

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Fun propaganda from our Ukrainian friends to our British friends:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/138qzmm/on_the_eve_of_the_historic_coronation_wed_like_to/

Steve

The Ukrainians are just flawless at this stuff.

[dan/california]

This came out about a month ago, but I just found it, Navany's operation savaging the Moscow Elite for their many, many crimes.

[Battlefront.com]

Dimitri's take on the Prig announcement:

And a response from Kadyrov.  Long and rambling, but it seems he wants to reassure everybody that his TikTok Warriors™ will swoop in to save the day:

It should be really bad for Russian Army/Marine morale to have these two numbnuts talking as if they aren't accountable to anybody.

Steve

[Beleg85]

46 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And a response from Kadyrov.  Long and rambling, but it seems he wants to reassure everybody that his TikTok Warriors™ will swoop in to save the day:

Kadyrov in the game...curiously, he claims his warirors were forced to operate tanks in Mariupol when crews left. That must have been quite a sight.

Btw. interesting was also Prig's content with Mizintsev, lately fired supposedly partly due to him supplying ammo for Wagner against orders. Good to know they are fighting under the carpet.

Ofc. if Russian MoD saves ammo for Ukrainian offensive it is perfectly rasonable decision. Clearly a lot of personal  ambitions in these recent developments.

cont

Edited May 5, 2023 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

30 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Kadyrov in the game...curiously, he claims his warirors were forced to operate tanks in Mariupol when crews left. That must have been quite a sight.

Btw. interesting was also Prig's content with Mizintsev, lately fired supposedly partly due to him supplying ammo for Wagner against orders. Good to know they are fighting under the carpet.

Ofc. if Russian MoD saves ammo for Ukrainian offensive it is perfectly rasonable decision. Clearly a lot of personal  ambitions in these recent developments.

cont

Rothrock's tweet is interesting. It suggests that the MoD, with Putin's support, is being at least somewhat vigilant about any inroads Prigozhin might be making in the military. 

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

But notes from Bahkmut state that Russia is leveling the last sections rather than fight through. Makes tactical sense. So where's this supposed shell shortage? They're firing more now than a month ago. 

We don't know whether Bakhmut means no shell shortage or whether that local heavy usage is actually causing a shell shortage over the rest of the front.  We'll find out soon.

[AlsatianFelix]

What's the hot key for this maneuver?

https://twitter.com/_SkipperGrumpy/status/1654479657041838085?s=20https://twitter.com/_SkipperGrumpy/status/1654479657041838085

 

Edited May 5, 2023 by AlsatianFelix

[Sojourner]

Russia getting ready to blow the ZNPP?

Russia started evacuation near front lines...

 

"I have therefore made a decision to evacuate first of all children and parents, elderly people, disabled people and hospital patients," he [the Russian-installed head of the Zaporizhzhia region, Yevgeny Balitsky] wrote.

"There will be a temporary evacuation" from 18 places, he said, including the town of Enerhodar where the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is located."

Moscow Times - Russia Orders Partial Evacuation Near Ukraine Front Line (msn.com)

[Beleg85]

Russians are trying again to push from northern side through Khromove. Guys in the city must have it really hard.

 

[Vet 0369]

On 5/4/2023 at 11:43 AM, sburke said:

Ha I was once accused by a cop of breaking windows in a windowless storage shed!

Were you? Come on, you’re old enough to fess up now. LOL

[Vet 0369]

On 5/4/2023 at 5:01 PM, Artkin said:

Is ammunition so short for the tanks? 78 rounds of munition is nothing when you're talking about a company of troops. If you give one of those soldiers a job in a factory I bet you he would make hundreds of rounds a year single handedly.

From my point of view, the C.O.’s punishment probably wasn’t so much because they used so many rounds than the fact they disobeyed orders and violated what we would call “fire discipline.” I remember one time when a member of a sister Squadron who was on a deployment to an Air Force base got caught spray painting his Squadron insignia on the Air Force fighters. The result of his “Non-judicial (Office Hoursj assessment was a punishment of a $50.00 fine, to be paid at the rate of $1.or per month, not because of what he did, but for getting caught!

[Vet 0369]

On 5/4/2023 at 7:45 PM, Fenris said:

My reading pertains mainly to the German experience in the east.

That mi amigo, is about 80 years out of date. Sort of like the weapons differences between the U.S. Civil War in 1865 and WWII in 1945!

[Vet 0369]

19 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Old habbits die hard.

Oh boy! First Orcs and Mordor, and now Habbits?