How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Huge BOOM was at 2:40 of night today. Preliminary not only Shakheds attack on Kyiv was repelled, but some missiles were shot down - no official info to this time. There are rumors, that ballistic type missiles were used on Kyiv this night, but they were intercepted by Patriots in first time. But this is not confirmed yet. 

Air raid alarm was announced hour ago. Some recon drone was shot down over Maidan half hour ago. But it suspicious looks like UKR PD-2, but it could be and Mugin-5  

 

Some suggest that it might've been Korsar, it certainly looks like one:

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Some suggest that it might've been Korsar, it certainly looks like one:

 

Hm.... This drone has three-blade propeller, when Korsar, PD-1, PD-2 have two-bladed. Own TB2? (has three-blades). If so, somebody will be fu...d in all holes...

[Haiduk]

Next T-90M goes to hell. 5th assault brigade at work. Likely Bakhmut area.

 

[Artkin]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Next T-90M goes to hell. 5th assault brigade at work. Likely Bakhmut area.

 

Lol whats the point of the blowout panels when the carousel is just going to explode anyway .

Hole in one, awesome clip. Couple hundred dollar grenade kills a 4 million dollar machine. 

Edited May 4, 2023 by Artkin

[A Canadian Cat]

 

Seems like a good summary of where we are - not there yet.

Fun tid bit in there he reports that some RA soldiers dug trenches in an animal grave yard and now have Anthrax. That is the first I have seen about that story. I don't remember reading about it on this thread. 

Did I miss it? Is it real?

[Haiduk]

UKR tank crew shot out position of Russian company in tree-plant and destroyed at least 6 armored tragets.

But the crew got... rebuke, because of shells overexpenditure %) Commander wrote in TikTok, when he has seen such fat target he couldn't reject himself to make small armageddon on Russian position. Allegedly he spent 78 shells (likely in two raids). Probably Russians after first attack abandoned position. So as a punishment, crew was sent to unload 2 trucks of shells. 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR tank crew shot out position of Russian company in tree-plant and destroyed at least 6 armored tragets.

But the crew got... rebuke, because of shells overexpenditure %) Commander wrote in TikTok, when he has seen such fat target he couldn't reject himself to make small armageddon on Russian position. Allegedly he spent 78 shells (likely in two raids). Probably Russians after first attack abandoned position. So as a punishment, crew was sent to unload 2 trucks of shells. 

 

 

No good deed...

[Centurian52]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

To achieve his lofty goal, Putin likely staged multiple false flag slaughters of his own people.

See that's part of why I'm not convinced this was Putin's doing. There is no reason he would be afraid of killing some of his own people in order to get the rest riled up against Ukraine. But this attack seemed specifically designed to not kill anyone.

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well if it was a Ukrainian op, it was poorly played.  I mean you have to follow up with IO exploitation (which we should be hearing by now).  Right now it looks like a pretty sad little UAV popped off aND scratched some roofing tiles on the old dome.  Weak tea, and worse looks weak too.  No HVT, no big drama like they had on the bridge or those airfields last year.  It is more likely to play into Russia's narratives and anyone could see that one coming.  Could be on outside job but it was amateur if it was - unless there are some big pieces we are not seeing but I am also leaning towards The Razor.

It's almost certain that this attack, if it's Ukrainians, was conducted at some remove from the government so there would have been no IO preparation. But...the ambiguity itself is useful to Ukraine. Western pundits are going out of their way (inaccurately IMO) to blame it on the Kremlin. Within Russia, every faction is pointing fingers at everyone else either in attribution or critique. And yes, just a small boom...but Dmitri Alperovitch describes the Kremlin as being "in a panic" about this attack. And they are right...the narratives are that Russia can't defend Moscow, can't hold Victory Day parades, can't win the war and can't even tell who it was that did it.

If I were in covert action business for Ukraine, I'd be quite happy what my little bomblet achieved at this point.

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

See that's part of why I'm not convinced this was Putin's doing. There is no reason he would be afraid of killing some of his own people in order to get the rest riled up against Ukraine. But this attack seemed specifically designed to not kill anyone.

Nor would Dugin, Prigozhin, Girkin, Kadyrov, Patrushev, etc. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

53 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Lol whats the point of the blowout panels when the carousel is just going to explode anyway .

Hole in one, awesome clip. Couple hundred dollar grenade kills a 4 million dollar machine. 

What is the point of having ammo stored in hull unprotected in Western tanks as well?

The carousel rarely ignites and is actually lower and so better located than most Western tanks hull ammo.

What ignites easily on Soviet model tanks is the extra ammo that is stored all around the tank. It this point neither side uses storage outside the carousel anymore.

[NamEndedAllen]

59 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

See that's part of why I'm not convinced this was Putin's doing. There is no reason he would be afraid of killing some of his own people in order to get the rest riled up against Ukraine. But this attack seemed specifically designed to not kill anyone.

Yeah, I can see that. But in this time of Russian near Apocalypse (certainly for Putin!), I think it’s also possible that the deeply embedded symbolism might count more than more lives lost. Nationally, Putin must now dig deeper into the contemporary Russian psyche than pointing at some localized people’s deaths. I’m recalling Stalin dropping the appeals and propaganda about Communism when Barbarossa was rolling towards Moscow and Leningrad, etc. He turned to the patriotism about pre Bolshevik Mother Russia, all the old Motherland symbolism. But most of all, I’m not convinced or strongly arguing for any of the theories. Today I lean towards false flag because of the perfect staging and Cui Bono. But we really just don’t know.  

Edited May 4, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Splinty]

4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

What is the point of having ammo stored in hull unprotected in Western tanks as well?

The carousel rarely ignites and is actually lower and so better located than most Western tanks hull ammo.

What ignites easily on Soviet model tanks is the extra ammo that is stored all around the tank. It this point neither side uses storage outside the carousel anymore.

At least in the case of the M1 Abrams, the ammo isn't stored openly in the hull or turret. It's stored in an armored compartment at the back of the turret and is separated from the crew compartment by armored blast doors. The loader opens the doors with a switch to access the rounds. The ammo compartment has blast panels on the turret roof in case of an ammo cook off.

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It's almost certain that this attack, if it's Ukrainians, was conducted at some remove from the government so there would have been no IO preparation. But...the ambiguity itself is useful to Ukraine. Western pundits are going out of their way (inaccurately IMO) to blame it on the Kremlin. Within Russia, every faction is pointing fingers at everyone else either in attribution or critique. And yes, just a small boom...but Dmitri Alperovitch describes the Kremlin as being "in a panic" about this attack. And they are right...the narratives are that Russia can't defend Moscow, can't hold Victory Day parades, can't win the war and can't even tell who it was that did it.

If I were in covert action business for Ukraine, I'd be quite happy what my little bomblet achieved at this point.

Going to have to disagree on this one.  Too little pay off for likely burning a team (hope they got them out).  Sure, gets them riled a bit but too easy to spin - which they did.  Best thing might be the blame game internally, could play that to get people tossed out windows.  But if one wants to go high profile, well I think one needs an exploitation plan post-boom worth the squeeze.  Now they may be doing this but we have not seen it yet.  Right now it looks like a low tech terror attack that did nothing but play into the whole “look! they are Nazi terrorists backed by NATO, but failed to kill The Glorious Leader” and now we can over react to “protect you”.  

Will take some time to see but one does not burn covert assets lightly and scratching the dome on the Kremlin does not merit in my humble opinion.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, IanL said:

Unless...

In general I am not too concerned about the "who done it" speculation but I did have one thought, as I was reading some of the posts here: how will this effect Putin's participation in the May 9th parade? It struck me, that the drone explosion was powerful enough to take out Putin and whomever was unlucky to be standing next to him - if it had gone off over the spectator stands at the May 9th parade.

So, before this Putin was looking forward to the prospect of a drone or three flying over the parade and being a nuisance. Now he has to pick his least favourite body double to go stand and watch the parade.

 

Are we there yet?

I am not buying this 9 May thing either.  I mean if they hold it and it does not get attacked resistance looks even weaker.  Attacking a second time will be incredibly hard now, damn near impossible.  And I bet they surround Putin’s body double with children and old people for good measure. Great we just gave him a chance to look strong.

I am more convinced this was an inside job.  

[Centurian52]

3 minutes ago, Splinty said:

At least in the case of the M1 Abrams, the ammo isn't stored openly in the hull or turret. It's stored in an armored compartment at the back of the turret and is separated from the crew compartment by armored blast doors. The loader opens the doors with a switch to access the rounds. The ammo compartment has blast panels on the turret roof in case of an ammo cook off.

The Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 do it that way as well for the main ammo storage. Only they have extra racks for ammo in the hull as well. The hull ammo storage doesn't have the same protections as the turret ammo (no blast doors, no blowout panels). My own opinion is that the hull ammo racks in these tanks should probably never be used, and I'm betting anyone who uses these tanks in a conventional war will eventually come to the same conclusion. So long as the hull ammo storage is never used these tanks are just as safe as the Abrams, but I think the Abrams is better for not even having hull ammo storage as a potentially tempting option.

[akd]

10 minutes ago, Splinty said:

At least in the case of the M1 Abrams, the ammo isn't stored openly in the hull or turret. It's stored in an armored compartment at the back of the turret and is separated from the crew compartment by armored blast doors. The loader opens the doors with a switch to access the rounds. The ammo compartment has blast panels on the turret roof in case of an ammo cook off.

There is also hull storage for 6 120mm rounds, but this is shielded from interior and has its own blast vent out of the hull.

(Now I don't know if it is actually used in practice, but that is the only way you get to 40 stowed rounds.)

Edited May 4, 2023 by akd

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Going to have to disagree on this one.  Too little pay off for likely burning a team (hope they got them out).  Sure, gets them riled a bit but too easy to spin - which they did.  Best thing might be the blame game internally, could play that to get people tossed out windows.  But if one wants to go high profile, well I think one needs an exploitation plan post-boom worth the squeeze.  Now they may be doing this but we have not seen it yet.  Right now it looks like a low tech terror attack that did nothing but play into the whole “look! they are Nazi terrorists backed by NATO, but failed to kill The Glorious Leader” and now we can over react to “protect you”.  

Will take some time to see but one does not burn covert assets lightly and scratching the dome on the Kremlin does not merit in my humble opinion.

Time will tell. Meanwhile, GPS spoofing is now roiling the Moscow taxi industry: https://t.me/official_moscow/16882

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Some suggest that it might've been Korsar, it certainly looks like one:

Officially. This was UKR TB2 Bayraktar, which lost control during mission and entered to airspace of Kyiv. Because it uncontrol flight could be dangerous for citizens there was decision made to shotiy down. 

But interesting. Since air raid alarm anouncing to shot down about 30 minutes passed. In HQs all this time discussed what the f....g going on and what to do with this mess? At last, when UAV turned out over city center they ordered to shot it down, though shooting with MGs and missile explosions over the city could be much more dangerous, than "uncontrolled flight". Hundreds of people filmed this "show" and if fragments of missile and UAV fell down on them, this can be too bloody. 

Flaming TB2 fell on abandoned facility and caused light fire. Lucky that not on residental building. As for me, stupid decision.  

Edited May 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Time will tell. Meanwhile, GPS spoofing is now roiling the Moscow taxi industry: https://t.me/official_moscow/16882

Ok, so that would be a point for you then.

[Haiduk]

Despite sanctions Russia keeps opportunity to produce at least light armor in enough numbers. Russian army got third batch of BMP-3, produced in 2023 year. "Kurganashzavod", manufacturer of these vehicles works 6 days in week per 12 hours in a day and produced in first quarter of 2023 year the same number of BMP-3 as for whole 2019 year.

As told Ukrianian tank expert Andriy Tarasenko, in 2019 MoD signed contract with "Kurganmashzavod" for 163 BMP-3, so presumably in 2019 they could produce 50 vehicles. 

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

A stern determination to fight the fascist Ukrainian enemy this is not: 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

37 minutes ago, Splinty said:

At least in the case of the M1 Abrams, the ammo isn't stored openly in the hull or turret. It's stored in an armored compartment at the back of the turret and is separated from the crew compartment by armored blast doors. The loader opens the doors with a switch to access the rounds. The ammo compartment has blast panels on the turret roof in case of an ammo cook off.

Technically Abrams also has a bunch of unprotected shells inside the hull next to the driver and next to the engine compartment. This is with full ammo load.

Leopard 2 has even more. Only 15 are in the turret blowout compartment and rest of the around 40 are "unprotected" next to the driver.

Edited May 4, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

UKR tank crew shot out position of Russian company in tree-plant and destroyed at least 6 armored tragets.

But the crew got... rebuke, because of shells overexpenditure %) Commander wrote in TikTok, when he has seen such fat target he couldn't reject himself to make small armageddon on Russian position. Allegedly he spent 78 shells (likely in two raids). Probably Russians after first attack abandoned position. So as a punishment, crew was sent to unload 2 trucks of shells. 

 

 

Is ammunition so short for the tanks? 78 rounds of munition is nothing when you're talking about a company of troops. If you give one of those soldiers a job in a factory I bet you he would make hundreds of rounds a year single handedly.

[Artkin]

4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Technically Abrams also has a bunch of unprotected shells inside the hull next to the driver and next to the engine compartment. This is with full ammo load.

Leopard 2 has even more. Only 15 are in the turret blowout compartment and rest of the around 40 are "unprotected" next to the driver.

Yeah I was speaking for the Abrams. I assumed the carousel ignited from the grenade. If not, it was definitely some ammunition laying open inside of there. The T90 looked like it was abandoned already so it's not like any lives were saved or lost.