How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, Eric Statkevicus said:

RFID microchip implants, max range 500 meters, existing tech (anyone with a dogs since late 90's can vouch, including myself, albeit at lower range).  Tell the locals that if you don't want to get hit by our AI powered drone swarm, come to the local watering hole to receive your free implant.

500m range means I can send out a drone to trigger those RFID tags and locate your troopers from a range they won't even hear the drone.

You can't turn off an RFID tag.

[dan/california]

33 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

https://mwi.usma.edu/an-unerring-sense-of-locality-ukraine-and-the-future-of-armored-warfare/

From the articles conclusion.

Quote

 The proliferation of surveillance and attack drones makes both the tank and infantry vulnerable to aerial attack and ambush. As a result, these formations will need layers of early warning and security to achieve their objectives. Armored warfare at lower echelons will need to rely less on infantry troops and more on R&S forces. R&S troops provide the reconnaissance and counterreconnaissance capabilities necessary to thwart the advantages armed reconnaissance drones offer.

He peels the outer layer of a very large onion. Or to put it more accurately he discusses only the innermost layer or two of a very large onion. He talks a fair bit about the necessity of shooting down the other side drones, and seeing the enemy before he sees you, but does not once mention that the only way to do this is with a your own drone cloud. I suspect he is good friends with the part of the army establishment pushing a manned recon helicopter

 

Then of course the question we have been discussing intermittently for nearly 2500 pages is whether you need need a mechanized column to exploit the victory your ISR bubble has just won over the enemies ISR bubble, or is excellent comms to your, hopefully longe range and relatively precise, fires complex enough. If you lose the aforementioned ISR battle a mechanized column is just a bunch of targets, Ukraine has certainly proved that much.

 

[Huba]

A very interesting interview with Ukrainian drone operator. It reads a bit like WB FlyEye sale pamphlet, but touches many subject related to drone employment in the conflict at hand. A really worthwhile read, it even mentions the infamous Bilohorivka crossing, which  according to the interviewee, was spotted and targeted thanks to his drones.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2023/05/02/interview-pilot-explains-how-ukraines-crowdfunded-army-of-drones-saves-lives/

[The_Capt]

11 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Putting together the alleged new Putin propaganda advice manual quoted here that details what to say if Ukraine’s offensive  is (or isn’t) successful, with the increasing weight of expert analysis - Ben Hodges, @The_Capt - that Crimea is the necessary key to defeating Russia, we can be excused for thinking that in the event, Putin will not order the use of tactical nukes. If the manual is not fake news, it certainly sounds as if the Russian public and perhaps the Western Allies as well are being prepped for a potential Russian off ramp, soft landing. Liberating Crimea is a big stretch - if it is fought to a long and bitter conclusion. But a premature loss blamed loudly in public on NATO and the US (and of course ultimately the British Overlords!), followed by an evacuation in the interest of saving lives blah blah blah…that puts the ball in Ukraine’s and the West’s court. Time for a cease fire and peace talks? Starting figuring out the political fate of the occupied Donbas?? 

Long shot speculation: Might China have suggested something like this in their recent talks with both parties?  

Crimea is tricky, not easy but also not impossible.  As a defensive location it is really not optimal.  Once that bridge is cut the thing becomes a giant peninsula with your opponent controlling the access point by land.  So Russia is down to trying to resupply a large enough force to 1) hold the bottleneck up in the NW and 2) have enough to cover off the rest of the shoreline from landings.  So logistically this is not an easy go as everything has to be done be sea, which is highly visible and vulnerable, especially when it lands.  My bet is the RA will be using the south coast for this.

Sea and air control is another major issue and you could expose assets that would normally not be exposed trying to hold the place, particularly naval power in the Sea of Azov. Morale for land forces is an issue as they would effectively be cut off with no easy routes of withdrawal.  Sevastopol gets dangerously in range of long range strike from UA held territory.  This is basically one giant Kherson situation.  

If it comes to Crimea, a very large part of the RA in Ukraine will have already failed.  To the point, as noted by Steve, the RA may fully collapse before a Crimean campaign if it comes to it.  However, if they do hold on it will likely be a slow choke out.  We will see the UA starting to ask for amphib type stuff, some raiding in deep and general mayhem.  Civilian panic is definitely on the table, we saw a preview of that last summer when they blew that bridge with a VBIED.

As to peace talks.  I do not think we are there yet.  Cutting the land bridge, pushing the RA back into Crimea and compressing Donbas puts Ukraine in a very strong end-game position - basically back to 23 Feb 22 lines.  Russian defeat is still pretty clear in that scenario.  Ukraine does not go back to pre-2014 but gets a reset to where is was.  At this point putting pressure on Crimea becomes a solid negotiating chip on the table, as in “ceasefire or we keep strangling Crimea”.

Dunno but clearly it is on the radar in the planning circles - one should always plan for success as much as one plans for failure.

Edited May 3, 2023 by The_Capt

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Crimea is tricky, not easy but also not impossible.  As a defensive location it is really not optimal.  Once that bridge is cut the thing becomes a giant peninsula with your opponent controlling the access point by land.  So Russia is down to trying to resupply a large enough force to 1) hold the bottleneck up in the NW and 2) have enough to cover off the reset of the shoreline from landings.  So logistically this is  it an easy go as everything has to be done be sea, which is highly visible and vulnerable, especially when it lands.  My bet is the RA will be using the south coast for this.

Sea and air control is another major issue and you could expose assets that would normally not be exposed trying to hold the place, particularly naval power in the Sea of Azov. Morale for land forces is an issue as they would effectively be cut off with no easy routes of withdrawal.  Sevastopol gets dangerously in range of long range strike from UA held territory.  This is basically one giant Kherson situation.  

If it comes to Crimea, a very large part of the RA in Ukraine will have already failed.  To the point, as noted by Steve, the RA may fully collapse before a Crimean campaign if it comes to it.  However, if they do hold on it will likely be a slow choke out.  We will see the UA starting to ask for amphib type stuff, some raiding in deep and general mayhem.  Civilian panic is definitely on the table, we saw a preview of that last summer when they blew that bridge with a VBIED.

As to peace talks.  I do not think we are there yet.  Cutting the land bridge, pushing the RA back into Crimea and compressing Donbas puts Ukraine in a very strong end-game position - basically back to 23 Feb 22 lines.  Russian defeat is still pretty clear in that scenario.  Ukraine does not go back to pre-2014 but gets a reset to where is was.  At this point putting pressure on Crimea becomes a solid negotiating chip on the table, as in “ceasefire or we keep strangling Crimea”.

Dunno but clearly it is on the radar in the planning circles - one should always plan for success as much as one plans for failure.

what was it that RU general said in WW2 when Stalin wanted to take back Crimea?  I think it was along the lines of "why?  It's a giant prison camp for German 17th army where they have to feed themselves"

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

One major difference between Kherson and Crimea is the distances and scale of the operation necessary to choke off the supply lines.  It was far easier to snip off Kherson and yet it proved quite difficult.  For sure the things Ukraine managed to accomplish doomed the Russian effort on the right bank, but the fighting raged on and Russia was able to withdraw.  With Crimea being so much larger and the distances to Russia's supply points substantially broader and deeper, Ukraine would need quite a lot of time with a lot more resources to effectively snip the LOCs.

Another major issue is civilian population.  On the right bank there were only a few hundred thousand civilians under Russian occupation and the fighting lasted only a couple of months.  Even if half the people in Crimea buggered out, that would mean over 1,000,000 civilians needing food, water, health care, and other things that will be negatively impacted by any attacks on the supply routes into Crimea.  As the battle would likely take months minimum, things could get ugly there very fast.  Is that in Ukraine's best interests?  No.  The West would be hearing about it (Russia would make sure) and the last thing Ukraine needs is a bitterly angry and emotional population when it eventually kicks Russia out.

I think Ukraine's best shot at recovering Crimea and the Donbas is to have Russia collapse.  All efforts should be focused on achieving that goal and not get focused on Crimea.

Steve

[BlackMoria]

For those who like rock music with a heavy metal flair, this is some ukrainian band video in praise of artillery supporting Bakhmut.  Song is rather catchy.  Music video has lots of video of western provided towed guns in action near Bakhmut.

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by BlackMoria

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

For those who like rock music with a heavy metal flair, this is some ukrainian band video in praise of artillery supporting Bakhmut.  Song is rather catchy.  

 

Cool.  I've seen a few videos with it as the soundtrack.

Let's compare and contrast.  Russia has been trying to take Bakhmut for months and failed because Ukraine doesn't want to give up any more of its country to the invaders.  Over this time Russia has had to rely upon convicts to take what isn't theirs, Ukraine has relied upon volunteers to keep what is theirs.  Russia is losing 10s of thousands of men to take something that has no military value, Ukraine is suffering casualties to keep something that they care about.  Russian soldiers are "encouraged" to attack or they will be shot, Ukraine has music videos to support of defending forces.

And that pretty much sums up the whole stupid war Russia has forces on Ukraine.

Steve

[Seminole]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Over this time Russia has had to rely upon convicts to take what isn't theirs, Ukraine has relied upon volunteers to keep what is theirs.

Is that true?

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02/26/ukraine-finds-stepping-up-mobilisation-is-not-so-easy

Feb 26th 2023

Ukraine has visibly stepped up mobilisation activities in the first two months of this year. There have been reports of draft notices issued (and sometimes violently enforced) at military funerals in Lviv, checkpoints in Kharkiv, shopping centres in Kyiv and on street corners in Odessa. Popular ski resorts lie deserted despite the first proper snows of the winter: footage of military officials snooping around on the slopes was enough to keep the crowds away. In every town and city across the country social-media channels share information about where recruitment officers may be lurking.

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

As to peace talks.  I do not think we are there yet.  Cutting the land bridge, pushing the RA back into Crimea and compressing Donbas puts Ukraine in a very strong end-game position

Yes, clearly. Agreed. But the peace talks speculation is that the leak of the supposed Putin Propaganda Directives Manual sets the stage for the aftermath of serious setbacks …such as loss of Crimea. And as you say, puts Ukraine in an unquestionably strong position. The “manual” then provides the excuse - NATO, the USA did it. But we fought valiantly and have survived. That may in turn set the stage for peace talks to follow such a significant loss. If the leaked material is not fake, we may be seeing the groundwork for signaling that Putin might accept an off-ramp. But only if it is “earned”. So much rides on the upcoming offensive{s}. And perhaps on a viable, permitted evacuation from Crimea.  

Just speculating, but Putin and some of the cooler heads that remain could be weighing their options more rationally as the offensive looms. The outcomes we all have dissected for a couple thousand pages are doubtless well-known to them, especially after the Xi and Defense minister meeting. With no fabulously great outcome of an even longer war realistic, avenues for survival must be coming into consideration along with grim and grimmer war planning in a country that may be one battlefield defeat away from cracking.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

Is that true?

Oh boy... here we go again...

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02/26/ukraine-finds-stepping-up-mobilisation-is-not-so-easy

Feb 26th 2023

Ukraine has visibly stepped up mobilisation activities in the first two months of this year. There have been reports of draft notices issued (and sometimes violently enforced) at military funerals in Lviv, checkpoints in Kharkiv, shopping centres in Kyiv and on street corners in Odessa. Popular ski resorts lie deserted despite the first proper snows of the winter: footage of military officials snooping around on the slopes was enough to keep the crowds away. In every town and city across the country social-media channels share information about where recruitment officers may be lurking.

This has been going on since the start of the war.  It's been discussed here in detail a couple of times and the conclusion is a) "if it bleeds it leads" distorted coverage, b) there's always someone that doesn't want to get drafted, c) the government acknowledged that untrained/over zealous enforcement is an issue to address, and d) the news is dated. 

The overwhelming majority of Ukraine's forces are there by choice, not by coercion.  This is largely true for Russia as well, though a significant portion of the fighting force is not (i.e. mobiks).  Prisoners are volunteers.  However, prisoners in particular were shoved to the front without the training they were promised when they signed up. So it is more likely than not that Russians at the front don't want to be there under the circumstances.

There's been plenty of this information posted here so if you have been paying attention you'd already know this.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like Russia is starting to regain it's propaganda footing by POSSIBLY making up a strike on Ukrainian Major General Tantsyura (new commander of all TD forces).  I say POSSIBLY because the only source for this alleged strike is from Prig, and he's not exactly Mr. Reliable Source (as evidenced by how many times his glorious forces took something in Bakhmut that they didn't take).  Ukraine says he's alive and well, but of course that's not necessarily trustworthy either.  So for what it's worth, here's ISW's coverage:

Quote

Russian reactions to a claimed strike against a vehicle carrying Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces Commander Major General Ihor Tantsyura suggest Russian ultranationalists seek to frame any Russian operations as delaying potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on May 2 that Wagner forces struck a Ukrainian armored vehicle carrying Tantsyura enroute to Bakhmut, and published a video purporting to show the strike.[8] Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces Spokesperson Denys Zelinskyi denied Prigozhin’s claim and stated that “everyone is alive and well.”[9] Prigozhin responded that Wagner will continue to operate in the area.[10] Milbloggers widely circulated Prigozhin’s claims and framed the strike as an informational victory.[11] A prominent milblogger claimed that Tantsyura received an order to transfer reserves to Bakhmut and prepare Ukrainian forces to conduct counterattacks in the area, likely to frame the Russian strike as an operationally significant event which delayed potential upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.[12] Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian strike on Pavlohrad on May 1 impacted a critical Ukrainian logistics and accumulation hub and similarly suggested that the strike would delay Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.[13]

Whether this is true or not, the Russians do need some bit of good news these days.  Even if they did kill the general, the bloggers are over estimating the impact this will have since (AFAIK) Ukraine follows the Western model of having redundant staff.  On top of that, the general was in charge of the TD forces which are most unlikely to be a central part of the coming counter offensive.

Steve

[DesertFox]

8 hours ago, JonS said:

Except that if it IS emitting a signal it will also be dead in no time. You've just invented red-force-tracking, except the beneficiary is the enemy, not us.

Well, it might end up in a constant cat+mouse play of EM countermeasures, however i have no doubt there will be a technological way to apply friend+foe identification in the future.

[Holien]

FYI - BBC have published an article about the Russian ships in the Nord Stream area...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65461401

Quote

And a third vessel, the naval tugboat the SB-123, is said to have arrived just five days before the September explosions. The radio communication suggests that it stayed there for the entire evening and night before sailing back towards Russia.

Satellite imagery examined by the broadcasters is said to support the claims about the unusual routes, and other reports in Germany had claimed it was in the area on 21-22 September.

This vessel can be used to support and rescue submarines and has the ability to carry out operations on the seabed, according to experts interviewed by the broadcasters.
 

Last week it emerged that the Danish military had taken 26 photographs of another Russian navy vessel specialising in submarine operations near the site of the blasts.

The usual Russian single finger to the West, we know you know but we don't care as we are at war with you (even if you don't think you are at war with us...)

[Holien]

12 hours ago, Rokko said:

I mean obviously it is not like kill the 400'000, then go home and have a victory parade, but it highlights the severity of Russia's manpower problems. With rates like this they will have to recruit/mobilize more than 300'000 men every 12 months, just to have anyone at all manning trenches.

OK thanks for the clarification as it appeared from the previous text that you were saying that Russia had plenty of men to "burn through" and it would take a year to make any difference.

It also appeared that you were trying to give a "better or a counter perspective" than what the Capt had stated which was actually quite useful in understanding the death rate compared to other wars.

I misunderstood the point you were making.

 

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

One major difference between Kherson and Crimea is the distances and scale of the operation necessary to choke off the supply lines.  It was far easier to snip off Kherson and yet it proved quite difficult.  For sure the things Ukraine managed to accomplish doomed the Russian effort on the right bank, but the fighting raged on and Russia was able to withdraw.  With Crimea being so much larger and the distances to Russia's supply points substantially broader and deeper, Ukraine would need quite a lot of time with a lot more resources to effectively snip the LOCs.

Another major issue is civilian population.  On the right bank there were only a few hundred thousand civilians under Russian occupation and the fighting lasted only a couple of months.  Even if half the people in Crimea buggered out, that would mean over 1,000,000 civilians needing food, water, health care, and other things that will be negatively impacted by any attacks on the supply routes into Crimea.  As the battle would likely take months minimum, things could get ugly there very fast.  Is that in Ukraine's best interests?  No.  The West would be hearing about it (Russia would make sure) and the last thing Ukraine needs is a bitterly angry and emotional population when it eventually kicks Russia out.

I think Ukraine's best shot at recovering Crimea and the Donbas is to have Russia collapse.  All efforts should be focused on achieving that goal and not get focused on Crimea.

Steve

Ah but scope and scale cut both ways.  A larger challenge for the UA, but also a much larger challenge for the RA to defend and support than Kherson.  As to the civilian population - well two wrongs do not make a right but given what Russia has put Ukrainians through, I am not sure we are ready to start weeping for Russians that get trapped in Crimea.  The answer is pretty well defined in LOAC, it is the besieged nations job to get its people out, and the besieging nations job to allow that to happen unmolested - you know, just like the good old Russians did in Mariupol?

The question is: does it take a Crimean campaign to create a Russian strategic collapse?  I am not sure, but it is definitely a possibility.  And Crimea is a much better option than a series of brutal Bakhmuts in the Donbas except now the UA has to do the attacking.

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Yes, clearly. Agreed. But the peace talks speculation is that the leak of the supposed Putin Propaganda Directives Manual sets the stage for the aftermath of serious setbacks …such as loss of Crimea. And as you say, puts Ukraine in an unquestionably strong position. The “manual” then provides the excuse - NATO, the USA did it. But we fought valiantly and have survived. That may in turn set the stage for peace talks to follow such a significant loss. If the leaked material is not fake, we may be seeing the groundwork for signaling that Putin might accept an off-ramp. But only if it is “earned”. So much rides on the upcoming offensive{s}. And perhaps on a viable, permitted evacuation from Crimea.  

Just speculating, but Putin and some of the cooler heads that remain could be weighing their options more rationally as the offensive looms. The outcomes we all have dissected for a couple thousand pages are doubtless well-known to them, especially after the Xi and Defense minister meeting. With no fabulously great outcome of an even longer war realistic, avenues for survival must be coming into consideration along with grim and grimmer war planning in a country that may be one battlefield defeat away from cracking.

I think a big challenge for Russia stopping this thing is not the ending - they can claim that they were minding their own business invading a non-country when the western world came along and beat on them because everybody always picks on “us poor old Russians”.  Spin the whole thing into a valiant loss that they can use as propaganda fodder for whatever BS they get up to for the rest of the century.

No the big problem for Russia is how to get someone to buy their stuff.  First off a lot of high priced talent left and likely won’t be coming back home soon so producing “stuff” is going to get a lot harder.  And then there is markets.  Western normalization is not likely to happen for decades so now they will need to swing east.  China so who is anything but dumb, is going to exploit this weak position like crazy.  In the end it won’t be losing a war that gets Putin pushed out a window, it will be what he does to the Russian oil and gas industry.

Of course I do not think Russia is in a long term planning mindset.  They look and feel like they are in a constant crisis management mode and dealing with consequences is not high on the list. However, when it does come to whatever faux peace talks/ceasefire (because they are not likely to let this go, that is one long term planning factor we can count on) this stuff is sure to come up.  I suspect some sort of renormalization concessions will be on the table - that will be a key indicator.

We are going to have to see.  I said last fall that we had entered into a Positioning for Endgame phase, the UA offensive will determine one way or the other if we are entering Endgame.

[Seminole]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 b) there's always someone that doesn't want to get drafted

Ergo, involuntary.  
Do you think someone can be ‘a little bit pregnant’?

With respect to being ‘dated’, the article is two months old.  Have they stopped drafting people, or are you misrepresenting what is currently happening?

[akd]

Just flying drones into the Kremlin now.  A brilliant, 3-day war.

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by akd

[DesertFox]

Taman Peninsula

 

 

[Monty's Mighty Moustache]

8 minutes ago, akd said:

Just flying drones into the Kremlin now.  A brilliant, 3-day war.

 

The Kremlin are now saying it was a Ukrainian attack on Putin himself

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65471904

MMM

[akd]

49 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said:

The Kremlin are now saying it was a Ukrainian attack on Putin himself

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65471904

MMM

Of course they are, and it is the official residence, but looks more like a symbolic demonstration to me. I doubt Putin sleeps right under the flag in the dome. Also, a highly demonstrative attack that seems to maximize visibility and minimize damage also raises the possibility of a false flag op.

Edited May 3, 2023 by akd

[Monty's Mighty Moustache]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Of course they are, and it is the official residence, but looks more like a symbolic demonstration to me. I doubt Putin sleeps right under the flag in the dome.

I expected nothing less

MMM

[DesertFox]

7 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said:

The Kremlin are now saying it was a Ukrainian attack on Putin himself

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65471904

MMM

LOL! Awesome airdefense they have. What else should they say?