zinz Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 (edited) https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-19-april-2023 I have to agree with Tom Cooper here. The air is the big show stopper for any Ukrainian offensive. See also: https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-adopts-new-offensive-tactics-to-decimate-ukrainian/?amp Edited April 27, 2023 by zinz Premature posting 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centurian52 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Agreed, except that I think we can see cracks. They just aren't in the people as much as the structure. The economy, for example, is a significant crack that is getting worse. Speaking of cracks, I just remembered a video released by Polymatter a couple weeks ago about the importance of pensions to Putin's hold on power. Pensions which require the very money which is being rapidly drained by the war. It really makes me wonder what happens to Putin when that money runs out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vic4 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Ukraine war: Partisan attack kills police chief in Russian-occupied Melitopol https://apple.news/APFvHewYuQ4yUBT2ujC0Rpw Don’t think his has been posted yet. Good to see some partisan activity/support in one of the main strategic sectors. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Kreminna area. "When you will start your offensive at last?!" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Quantity of UK armor, which bought three Ukrainian charity funds for donates 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: Agreed, except that I think we can see cracks. They just aren't in the people as much as the structure. The economy, for example, is a significant crack that is getting worse. Another one is the social contract with the people that life would not slide backwards. There are also others that we are suspicious that might be there if certain events happen, such as if Crimea is taken a lot of that patriotic good will that Putin received in 2014 might go away. That sort of thing. That said, I do agree that Putin has successfully navigated himself out of either a coup or a straight up challenge to his rule. I think it was touch and go there for a while, but a combination of Russian apathy and dead oligarchs headed things off before they really got rolling. Steve Agreed. And to be clear, my point above isn't to say that the regime is strong. The cracks in regards to the war are quite obvious and the economy is living on borrowed time. But there isn't an alternative to Putin that anyone takes seriously and until one arises or he falls out of window, he's what we are going to get. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 another purge? Russia’s ‘Butcher of Mariupol’ first to go in reported major Defense Ministry purge (yahoo.com) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 41 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Kreminna area. "When you will start your offensive at last?!" This is one of the most convincing not yet(s) in the history of mankind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 (edited) Situation in Bakhmut for last three days. Russians had success on the north. Now they hold Kraynia str. UKR troops still hold 2nd city hospital and musical collage. Though, this sucess cost so much casualties, that now Russians reduced activity on the north of the Bakmut and now switched to Ivanisvske, trying to regain own positions, being lost during counter-attacks of 3rd assault brigade. "Azov" could push the enemy further from Chasiv Yar - Bakhmut road both near Ivanivske and inside south-westren part of city. When on the north and in center mostly artillery and aviation (and sometime TOS-1) are working, that on the southern flank ememny MLRS is more active. Two days ago there was hard situation near Khromove, so Russian propagandists even claimed Khromove is captured, but this wasn't true. UKR forces again repelled enemy attacks and again cleaned positions near the road Edited April 27, 2023 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Next Slovenian aid 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poesel Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 44 minutes ago, billbindc said: Agreed. And to be clear, my point above isn't to say that the regime is strong. The cracks in regards to the war are quite obvious and the economy is living on borrowed time. But there isn't an alternative to Putin that anyone takes seriously and until one arises or he falls out of window, he's what we are going to get. That is what I mean with the missing discussion: what can Russia expect from the west after Russia has left Ukraine and Putin is gone. A clear picture of how that would benefit Russia is necessary to give any would-be revolutionaries a goal to achieve. Of course, there is a price tag for Russia to get back into the international community. Knowing this number (roughly) would help to evaluate if going with Putin is still the right choice. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, poesel said: That is what I mean with the missing discussion: what can Russia expect from the west after Russia has left Ukraine and Putin is gone. A clear picture of how that would benefit Russia is necessary to give any would-be revolutionaries a goal to achieve. Of course, there is a price tag for Russia to get back into the international community. Knowing this number (roughly) would help to evaluate if going with Putin is still the right choice. The numbers/conditions are heavily dependent on how many people they are willing to publicly hang, or deliver to the Hague. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 1 hour ago, sburke said: another purge? Russia’s ‘Butcher of Mariupol’ first to go in reported major Defense Ministry purge (yahoo.com) Is it even a proper purge, is they don't get shot or imprisoned? Daddy Stalin would be disappointed by how weak Putin is. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Quote A Czech primary school teacher is due to face trial for spreading Russian disinformation about the war in Ukraine to her pupils. Martina Bednarova, who until last year taught Czech at a school in Prague, told children last April there was "no war" in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. On the contrary, she claimed, Ukrainian soldiers were murdering the Russian-speaking inhabitants of Donbas. A state prosecutor has filed charges against her, Czech daily Pravo reports. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65413458 I wonder if things like this are happening elsewhere in EU. I'm happy that some things are happening on the hybrid / misinformation front, though I am convinced we should do more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 2 hours ago, zinz said: https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-19-april-2023 I have to agree with Tom Cooper here. The air is the big show stopper for any Ukrainian offensive. See also: https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-adopts-new-offensive-tactics-to-decimate-ukrainian/?amp First off, what happened to Tom Cooper's grasp of the English language? It's been a while since I've read anything of his as I found his prognostications to off the mark, so I almost thought this particular post was a spoof While I certainly don't view Russia's air power to be completely ineffective, I do not think it has what it takes to use it decisively in any way. A whole year's worth of evidence to support that position. Given their difficulty fielding precision weapons that worked well, and now they have hardly any of those left, it doesn't seem to me that they have anything that will change the equation on the ground. Hopefully Ukraine's deep strike plan includes more damage to Russia's bomber capacity. Hitting them has certainly worked in the past. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 1 hour ago, poesel said: That is what I mean with the missing discussion: what can Russia expect from the west after Russia has left Ukraine and Putin is gone. A clear picture of how that would benefit Russia is necessary to give any would-be revolutionaries a goal to achieve. Of course, there is a price tag for Russia to get back into the international community. Knowing this number (roughly) would help to evaluate if going with Putin is still the right choice. I disagree. All we should be discussing with Russia right now is how and when they are going to end the war, leave Ukrainian territory and in the meantime what steps we are going to take to avoid any sort of accidental direct conflict that could escalate it. America setting conditions on a future Russian government muddies the water and affirms the Russian claim to the rest of the world that the US is meddling in their internal affairs. Call it a 'color revolution by other means' if you will. In addition, it is not at all clear that articulating those conditions now will actually help any would be revolutionaries as it would make it simple for the regime to then label any and all American stooges. Eyes on the prize...arms to the UA and support until they win the war. That's all and it's more than enough. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centurian52 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 22 minutes ago, billbindc said: I disagree. All we should be discussing with Russia right now is how and when they are going to end the war, leave Ukrainian territory and in the meantime what steps we are going to take to avoid any sort of accidental direct conflict that could escalate it. America setting conditions on a future Russian government muddies the water and affirms the Russian claim to the rest of the world that the US is meddling in their internal affairs. Call it a 'color revolution by other means' if you will. In addition, it is not at all clear that articulating those conditions now will actually help any would be revolutionaries as it would make it simple for the regime to then label any and all American stooges. Eyes on the prize...arms to the UA and support until they win the war. That's all and it's more than enough. I think there should be some conditions placed on Russia, or whatever we call the country that Moscow is at the heart of at the end of all this. Them ending hostilities and leaving all Ukrainian territory is all well and good. But there are still war crimes that need to be addressed. Sanctions should not be lifted until Moscow agrees to cooperate in investigating suspected war criminals, arresting and prosecuting known war criminals, and returns forcibly deported Ukrainian children. If they refuse, then we should have no qualms about permanently shutting Moscow out of the international community. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 32 minutes ago, billbindc said: All we should be discussing with Russia right now is how and when they are going to end the war, The present Russian regime is a regime with which no decent person can do business with. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centurian52 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Just now, chuckdyke said: The present Russian regime is a regime with which no decent person can do business with. Also this. ISW has repeatedly assessed that Putin will probably never relinquish his maximalist goals for Ukraine. We can never change his mind. We have to force Russia out of Ukraine, we cannot negotiate Russia out of Ukraine. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/26/7399496/ I'm guessing middle June for the Offensive to hit its stride. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04/27/world/russia-ukraine-news#russias-gas-exports-2023 Creeeeeekkk...creeeek...creeeeek... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 10 hours ago, Beleg85 said: One would think after 15 months of trashing they would finally learn to coordinate tanks with infantry, or at least not to push them throught dense urban area. But no. Komandir nakazal. Btw. we may soon see some muscovites wearing pots similar their ancestors did during WWII. PET?? Have you seen the mechanical properties? It's nothing. I've done structural simulation models w PET and it's wimpy stuff. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 40 minutes ago, Centurian52 said: I think there should be some conditions placed on Russia, or whatever we call the country that Moscow is at the heart of at the end of all this. Them ending hostilities and leaving all Ukrainian territory is all well and good. But there are still war crimes that need to be addressed. Sanctions should not be lifted until Moscow agrees to cooperate in investigating suspected war criminals, arresting and prosecuting known war criminals, and returns forcibly deported Ukrainian children. If they refuse, then we should have no qualms about permanently shutting Moscow out of the international community. Sure. But that’s for later. The war is quite enough to be working on and ending hostilities in a way that’s positive for Ukraine and NATO is the requirement for all the rest. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 1 hour ago, billbindc said: I disagree. All we should be discussing with Russia right now is how and when they are going to end the war, leave Ukrainian territory and in the meantime what steps we are going to take to avoid any sort of accidental direct conflict that could escalate it. America setting conditions on a future Russian government muddies the water and affirms the Russian claim to the rest of the world that the US is meddling in their internal affairs. Call it a 'color revolution by other means' if you will. In addition, it is not at all clear that articulating those conditions now will actually help any would be revolutionaries as it would make it simple for the regime to then label any and all American stooges. Eyes on the prize...arms to the UA and support until they win the war. That's all and it's more than enough. 27 minutes ago, billbindc said: Sure. But that’s for later. The war is quite enough to be working on and ending hostilities in a way that’s positive for Ukraine and NATO is the requirement for all the rest. So the offensives big kick off is going to be enough ATACMS to obliterate every airfield and rail junction in Crimea? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 (edited) oh jeez, there just are no words Pro-War Russians Duped Into Torching Kremlin Military Offices (yahoo.com) and this one is even better. Russian army commander arrested for ‘selling tank engines’ (yahoo.com) Edited April 28, 2023 by sburke 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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