How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Offshoot]

The leaker dude must have bought nitro on Discord for those sweet animated emojis:

"According to Lueckenhoff, he had been identified by a member of an internet group he led on Discord, a gaming messaging platform, and a “social media platform” – presumably a reference to Discord – handed over Teixeira’s billing address and other details to the FBI. The FBI then put his driver’s licence photo in a lineup of similar photos to the witness, who identified him." - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/14/jack-teixeira-charged-pentagon-leaks-espionage-act

[Vet 0369]

On 4/13/2023 at 9:59 AM, cesmonkey said:

I can imagine this intelligence leak is going to lead to extensive Congressional hearings.

Below is the chair of the House Intelligence Committee:

 

Without a doubt, the failures that led to the ability to leak need to be investigated, fixed, and those who enabled the individual to access the documents need to face the consequences. Unfortunately, in things such as this in the military tend to end with some enlisted bearing the brunt and the officers whose decisions led to allowing him to access the documents will get a slap on the hand and maybe at worse a letter of reprimand in their Service  Record Books. By the way, I’m reading and responding to this thread on the evening (U.S. Eastern Time), so I already know who has been charged and all.

[Vet 0369]

On 4/13/2023 at 1:39 PM, Lethaface said:

You have never brainstormed properly

Most of the “brain-storming”secessions in which I’ve been involved, turned out to simply be the Manager stating his or her ideas, and most of the attendees saying “great idea,” or that’s why you’re the Manager and we’re the worker bees!”

Real tempest in a real tempest in a teapot!

[Vet 0369]

13 hours ago, Cogust said:

I would be surprised if there were burn bags, that sounds like a bad solution, I would expect that hard copies are shredded instead to destroy them instantly when they are no longer needed.

That is how we do it from where I am from, we also have to register all S and TS hard copies and sign for them to be able to take them away. I thought that was common sense, but apparently not.

My belief is that they should shred the paper into a burn bag. I’m preteen sure that many members on this thread weren’t even born when Iranian University Students took the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. One of the unfortunate things that came out of that was that Embassy Staff shredded many documents because the burning was backlogged. Unfortunately, Students worked on the bags of shredded paper as they would with a jigsaw puzzle, and reassembled the which proved VERY embarrassing for the U.S. Government. I heard the process now is to shred and then burn.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Also Bakhmut - Russian got a tangent hit of sniper bullet on the helmet

Someone REALLY didn't want to be filmed by that guy.

[Battlefront.com]

Russia must be winning!  It's soldiers seem to still have the time and resources to haze the new guys:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/12lxerr/everyday_life_of_the_second_army_of_the_world_1of/

You'd think that dying would be enough of a harsh introduction to Russian military service.

Maybe that blue dye they use on new recruits has some sort of hallucinogenic or brain damaging effect on the soldier.  Could explain why this Russian soldier says he has seen Leopard tanks many times already:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/12m5det/ruzzian_delusions/

And they even captured one!  Alas, they had to drown it in a swamp because they couldn't recover it.  They also apparently couldn't take a picture of it either because if there's one thing the Russians are so well know for it's really good OPSEC.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

True?

Sergey Lavrov and Russian UN Delegation Denied US Visas (kyivpost.com)

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting video released on the 1 year anniversary of the sinking of the Moskva (Feb 10, 2022):

I've not been following the evidence based speculation of what happened since last Fall, so I can't comment on how accurate this information is.  However, I find it likely that he is correct and the Moskva was sunk by Neptune missiles fired without any supporting efforts (such as drones confusing the radar).  The missiles were able to strike because the Russians did a half assed update of the ship and then pulled it out of port even though its own internal assessment painted a grim picture of its capabilities.  That's covered in detail about 1/2 through the video.  In typical Russian fashion, the overall assessment of the ship is that it's ready for combat (what the Russian higher ups want to hear), then lists several dozen reasons why this thing should never have left port (what the higher ups don't bother reading).

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Fenris said:

Check-mate   (note is visegrad so pass the salt)

 

It is true, but it is only temporary I am sure.  The US is saying the reason is the Russians neutered its embassy in Moscow and that is delaying processing.  It's obviously BS, but it's a fun thing anyway

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-no-us-visas-yet-lavrov-visit-united-nations-2022-09-02/

What would be great is to call up Lavrov and say "OK, your place in the visa processing queue is almost at the front.  We just have finish processing a bunch of visas from the ICC.  As they have requested to be here a few hours ahead of you, it's caused a bit of a backlog.  However, we have a way to speed things up!  Fly over here without your visas and we'll get them to you when you land.  The ICC guys were kind enough to offer to hand them to you personally at the airport".

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

Putin cancels Victory Day parades as Ukraine invasion continues to unravel (yahoo.com)

The cancellations are officially due to security concerns related to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, numerous commentators have speculated that Moscow is also increasingly short of tanks and is understandably eager to avoid highlighting the scale of the losses suffered by the Russian army in Ukraine. Whether the real reason is security issues or equipment shortages, the decision to cancel this year’s Victory Day parades represents a painful blow for Vladimir Putin that hints at the grim reality behind Moscow’s upbeat propaganda portrayals of his faltering Ukraine invasion.

...

These unfavorable circumstances will make Putin’s job all the more difficult as he attempts to strike the right note in this year’s Victory Day address. With little to look forward to, he is likely to seek inspiration from the glories of the past. However, comparisons between World War II and Russia’s present predicament may not prove very flattering. At the height of the Nazi advance in late 1941, Moscow famously staged the annual October Revolution parade on Red Square with the might of the invading German army located a mere few miles away. In contrast, Putin is evidently now unable to defend Russia against the far more modest threat posed by a country he expected to conquer in just three days. Throughout the Putin era, Victory Day has served to showcase Russia’s resurgent strength, but this year’s holiday may become a symbol of his regime’s growing weakness.

It's a little confusing.  Several sources say all of the parades are cancelled, some are ambiguous.  Even this article is a little contradictory stating about halfway down:

While traditional Victory Day events will not take place on May 9 in some Russian regional capitals, the country’s main holiday parade in Moscow is set to proceed as planned.

Sure sounds like all they did was cancel the regional parades, not the big Red Square one.

Steve

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's a little confusing.  Several sources say all of the parades are cancelled, some are ambiguous.  Even this article is a little contradictory stating about halfway down:

While traditional Victory Day events will not take place on May 9 in some Russian regional capitals, the country’s main holiday parade in Moscow is set to proceed as planned.

Sure sounds like all they did was cancel the regional parades, not the big Red Square one.

Steve

yeah I guess that is why it is plural, but then referencing the October parade in 1941 comparison falls a little flat.  journalists...

[Kinophile]

https://www.wired.com/story/fast-forward-ukraines-quest-for-homegrown-ai-drones-to-take-on-russia/

[Fenris]

More analysis suggesting heavy losses amongst some of RU's best troops.

 

[Fenris]

Another interesting thread.  Wager force generation techniques getting even more draconian

 

[kluge]

On 4/13/2023 at 1:23 AM, Yet said:

strat-wise: would it make sense for the UA if before your plan to head to Tokmak and Vasilyvka, to make a 'distraction attack' from Vuhledar to Volnovahka(and stop there)? 

Assuming the public info on Russian force dispositions is reasonably accurate and hasn't drastically changed in the past month, the RAF forces at Vuhledar are under the command of the Eastern Military District. The RAF forces at Tokmak and the area to the west of it are under the command of the Southern Military District.

It doesn't make much sense to pressure one command only to switch directions and hit a completely different command.

Better to focus on the forces of the SMD and SMD alone. For reference, the "hinge" between the forces of the SMD and EMD might be more in the vicinity of Polohy.

A better "distraction" would convince the commander of the SMD to commit its reserve to an area under the purview of the SMD but away from the main thrust.

[Letter from Prague]

On 4/13/2023 at 8:28 PM, sburke said:

whoa hold on there.  my tinfoil hat has stopped alien messages from infecting my brain.  prove it hasn't!    

Are you sure brain is the part you want to protect the most? Have you thought about anti-probe tinfoil underpants?

[panzermartin]

13 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian T-90M in Bakhmut city center. It fires toward cottadge area, laying south from railway station. The tank stands in about 750 m from railroad

 

 

After all those horrendous armor losses, it is strange they are employing their most valuable tank in close street fighting right in the killing zone of UKR arty/drone/AT fire. I was expecting a T-62 there. 

[Letter from Prague]

They probably cancelled the parade because they don't have anything to parade with.

[Yet]

48 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

They probably cancelled the parade because they don't have anything to parade with.

What do you mean nothing to parade with? SMO lead to the creme de la creme of RU militairy innovations.

[Haiduk]

T-84 Oplot fleet again changed brigade. Now they in 3rd tank brigade (before they were in 14th and 92nd mech.)

 

 

[The_Capt]

So from the “you’re doing it wrong” file:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/the-white-papers-exclusive-report-challenges-ukrainian-tactics-used-against-russia-1.6355219

Has anyone here actually found a copy of this document?  I have searched and came up with a blank.  I am immediately suspicious when authors refuse to identify themselves.  

While I have no doubt the UA has substantial after action and learning points, this smacks of “well if you only fought like us…without air supremacy, without land power supremacy, without sea control and facing a peer force who is better equipped than any military force the west has faced since Korea…you would have won already.”

As I have said many times, given similar strategic or operational conditions I seriously doubt “more western C2 or ‘combined arms’” would have done much better.  I also am entirely convinced that if we were in a war facing the UA right now - again where air denial was in place, our loses would be so high that the shock would have likely led to a political withdrawal.  For example, as was noted by the Atlantic Counsel paper: how does one “combined arms” against ATGMs that have a 4.5 km range and 80%+ success rate?

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Game-Changers-or-Little-Change-Lessons-for-Land-War-in-Ukraine-.pdf

Edited April 15, 2023 by The_Capt

[DesertFox]

8 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

True?

Sergey Lavrov and Russian UN Delegation Denied US Visas (kyivpost.com)

I hope so.

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

They probably cancelled the parade because they don't have anything to parade with.

They could use bodybags?

[Butschi]

44 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So from the “you’re doing it wrong” file:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/the-white-papers-exclusive-report-challenges-ukrainian-tactics-used-against-russia-1.6355219

Has anyone here actually found a copy of this document?  I have searched and came up with a blank.  I am immediately suspicious when authors refuse to identify themselves.  

While I have no doubt the UA has substantial after action and learning points, this smacks of “well if you only fought like us…without air supremacy, without land power supremacy, without sea control and facing a peer force who is better equipped than any military force the west has faced since Korea…you would have won already.”

As I have said many times, given similar strategic or operational conditions I seriously doubt “more western C2 or ‘combined arms’” would have done much better.  I also am entirely convinced that if we were in a war facing the UA right now - again where air denial was in place, our loses would be so high that the shock would have likely led to a political withdrawal.  For example, as was noted by the Atlantic Counsel paper: how does one “combined arms” against ATGMs that have a 4.5 km range and 80%+ success rate?

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Game-Changers-or-Little-Change-Lessons-for-Land-War-in-Ukraine-.pdf

I guess the answer you can expect is, there is no air denial because of superior SEAD capability and ATGM is countered by (superior) APS.

I am curious: At the end of the day this is still a wargaming forum and, as someone smart once said, a large part of (war) gaming is living our power fantasies. CMBS in particular is in part about living US power fantasies. There's nothing wrong with that, btw. it may just make for a little bias here.

 

[Seminole]

54 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

For example, as was noted by the Atlantic Counsel paper: how does one “combined arms” against ATGMs that have a 4.5 km range and 80%+ success rate?

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Game-Changers-or-Little-Change-Lessons-for-Land-War-in-Ukraine-.pdf

Trophy sounds too good to be true, but that’s inevitably where things go, isn’t it?

The main role of Trophy is defence against missile strikes, more so for lighter armored personnel carriers, which are very vulnerable to rocket attacks. Since 2011, the system has achieved 100% success in all low and high-intensity combat events, in diversified terrain (urban, open and foliage). The system has intercepted a variety of threats, including the 9M133 Kornet ATGM, RPG-29, etc. the U.S Army has reported similar success in tests. “I tried to kill the Abrams tank with ATGM 48 times and failed, despite the fact that some of them were supersonic,” said US Army Col. Glenn Dean. According to Rafael, by 2017, Trophy has accrued over 50,000 operating hours in deployment, bringing the system to a maximum reliability level. To minimize collateral damage and residual penetration, Rafael selected a unique kill mechanism for Trophy, with a surgical effect.