How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The poster deleted the Tweet, but did link to a different one:

Look at those folds!  Cute way to try and make it look like it was an original printed document that was smuggled out by hand.  Nice try bub

It is highly likely that there are covert NATO personnel (civilian and military) in Ukraine since probably 2014 at a minimum.  They would likely be there to facilitate the gathering and flow of information more than anything, but training trainers is also possible.  Though honestly, with all the overt training going on outside of Europe I don't think that would be a big need.  Operating as military units against Russian forces?  That I very much doubt.

Steve

do we have any one place with all the papers in readable resolution?

[Beleg85]

14 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Pax is a short hand for individuals.

Thanks.

If this is fake or psyops, it's damn rich one ...pro-RU account, but it is in net anyway. Here details about AA systems.

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1644390191627370498

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

Careful guys, make sure you only share posts, not data...

[Yet]

4 hours ago, Halmbarte said:

Who publishes maps using miles outside the US? 

It'd be like trying to submit a scientific paper using pounds and inches. Good luck with that. 

H

i googled the distance on the map. 

its not 600miles, its 600km

[Der Zeitgeist]

 

[Yet]

also the country names look very photoshopped in. 

country names are another font than the seas.

also see for example how the text 'denmark' starts right after the end of north sea. no mapmaker ever would do that. 

also it is 'the netherlands' and 'czech republic', not 'netherlands' and 'czechia'.

100% sure a fake map. and very bad even. actually it looks more like done in paint than in photoshop.

Edited April 7, 2023 by Yet

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Centrism is an inherently flawed idea. …The "center" does not apply to many issues unless you're privileged enough to not be personally affected. 

Respectfully, this misses the point. The three way “toggle” notion, pigeonholing all of us into one of three positions is not reality. The left/right categorization is simply not the actual lived experience of most people. Insisting that one or the other MUST be the only truth is poisoning societies. We all have a mixed bag of opinions and beliefs. We resent being categorized as a far right winger, or far lefty, or this or that or the other thing. Real people are not constrained to a single dot in the center or one end or the other. It’s a big spectrum!  But there ARE those who align themselves with a single, narrow set of extreme ideas, assertions, & policies. They deny all other viewpoints. THAT has become more dangerous these days. Witness Russia and its statements about the nature of Ukrainians and the satanic baby-eating West etc etc.

The point about the center is this. The center, the middle is the acknowledgment and acceptance that *I* can’t always be right about everything, I can’t have everything MY way. The entire idea of politics is based upon the art of compromise. Not scorched earth. With that attitude, not even the marriage of two people can survive, without into a descent into darkness. Marriages depend on both of us being willing to compromise in some matters because we are two different people. Even just two people are not going to see everything the same way. How much more must that apply to society? In nations of millions, there can be no striving for fairness, mutual respect, domestic tranquility when some insist that everyone else must be wrong. And will not be tolerated. It should be as obvious as the fact that ice cream comes in more than one flavor! In no way does this mean that there are not real problems to solve. But they will not ALL be solved by the assertions and opinions of either extreme. Good ideas come from all across the spectrum. And across the world.

Edited April 7, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

Pax is a short hand for individuals.

I had to remind myself what it actually stands for.  Found one definition "persons approximately".  Military types can tell us if it is a common US term at this level of documentation, as it seems it has its roots in Europe.

Steve

[Beleg85]

Internet era is brutal...they almost found "patient zero", at leats according to current knowledge.

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644399422028087297

Guy published 31 UA-related documents early March on something called WowMao (those names...) +100 other files on Discord he posted during this war. Interesting, he seems to get away with it for long time, and he claims he found them on other server with N-word, he cannot spell because of Twitter rules...what a comedy.

Probably there are several highly-advenced crisis team somewhere in bunkers in US trying to seriously search for it. At least CNN puting it on front page, even at the cost of media feast over Trump, may suggest it is not that dangerous...

But seriously, amount of docs is quite substantial. And very detailed, especially regarding SAM batteries and their expediture.

[crossposted with Zeitgeist partially].

Edited April 7, 2023 by Beleg85

[Tux]

1 hour ago, Yet said:

also it is 'the netherlands' and 'czech republic', not 'netherlands' and 'czechia'.

I think the Czech government does prefer “Czechia”, so I wouldn’t rely on that particular example.  

[Beetz]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I had to remind myself what it actually stands for.  Found one definition "persons approximately".  Military types can tell us if it is a common US term at this level of documentation, as it seems it has its roots in Europe.

Steve

In Europe I think we used it related to people onboard aircrafts. At least that's what we did with infantry doing air assault. Which had been counted on a flip chart as PAX in the staging area.

[billbindc]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I had to remind myself what it actually stands for.  Found one definition "persons approximately".  Military types can tell us if it is a common US term at this level of documentation, as it seems it has its roots in Europe.

Steve

There are some interesting anomalies: 

 

[chrisl]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I had to remind myself what it actually stands for.  Found one definition "persons approximately".  Military types can tell us if it is a common US term at this level of documentation, as it seems it has its roots in Europe.

Steve

It’s been standard airline usage for “passenger” (singular or plural) since forever and the only other usage I’ve heard is Latin for Pax Romana or Pax Americana.

I travel too much and also spend time on travel forums.

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

But seriously, amount of docs is quite substantial. And very detailed, especially regarding SAM batteries and their expediture.

The "Hitler Diaries" were also quite substantial and detailed

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There are some interesting anomalies: 

 

Heh... "Vagner" is funny indeed.

I wonder if Haiduk can spot any Soviet/Russian town names on the map.  That's a mistake Russian propagandists have made in the past when faking information.

Steve

[chrisl]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'd like to talk about this as it is right up our alley.

Here's what the TO&E looks like in comprehensive text form:

Storm Z Company - 100 men
Company HQ - 2 men
    1x Company Commander
    1x Company Commander Ast

    1x Recon Group - 8 men
        1x Squad Leader
        1x Senior Scout
        1x Radioman
        1x Grenadier (RPG-7)
        1x LMG Gunner
        1x Sniper
        1x Sniper Ast
        1x Driver (Medium Truck)

     1x UAV Group -2 men
       1x Leader
       1x UAV Operator

    1x Combat Engineer Group - 5 men
        1x Squad Leader
        1x Senior Sapper
        1x Sapper
        1x Sapper
        1x Driver (Light Truck)

    1x Medevac Group - 3 men
        1x Squad Leader
        1x Medical Instructor
        1x Driver (Medium Truck)

    4x Capture Squad - 10 men each
        1x Group Leader
        1x Squad Leader / UAV Operator
        1x Radioman
        1x Grenadier (RPG-7)
        1x Grenadier Ast
        1x LMG Gunner
        1x LMG Ast
        1x Medic
        1x Sapper
        1x Driver (Medium Truck)

    4x Fire Support Squad - 10 men each
        1x Squad Leader / AGS Gunner
        1x AGS Gunner
        1x AGS Ast
        1x AGS Ast
        1x LMG Gunner
        1x LMG Gunner
        1x Rifleman (no specified role)
        1x Sniper
        1x Sniper
        1x Driver (Medium Truck)

Total personnel 100 men

 

In theory this is a very well armed and flexible group.  The structure indicates that there can be four platoon sized maneuver elements with an independent recon squad being a fifth.  The only other sizeable unit, Combat Engineer Group, lacks a radio and therefore is probably assumed subordinate to one of the other elements.

The Company Commander can mix and match a variety of capabilities around between the maneuver elements and/or hold assets in reserve under his direct command.  The medivac group is dedicated to removing wounded from the battlefield so none of the other assets are lost after casualties are taken.

The source notes that these units are being raised outside of the normal systems and appear to be Brigade/Regimental controlled formations.  Training is between 10-15 days.

 

Here's my take on this from a guy who has spent thousands of hours working with TO&E and watching how it works within simulated tactical battles:

1. The way it is set up is incredibly brittle.  It should either have half as many weapons or twice as many men.  Pretty much every single casualty eliminates a weapon or role as there are no multipurpose riflemen except for (possibly) one in the Fire Support Group.
2. The lack of redundant manpower means when a unit suffers casualties it not only means losing that particular capability, but it also means having to leave equipment and/or ammo on the battlefield because there's simply nobody to carry it forward or backward.
3. Leadership headcount is fairly standard for Russian units, which is inherently weak.  It's worse, though as the diversity of weaponry makes it unlikely the leaders will employ their weapons effectively.  Especially if a Capture Group is bulked up with more than just a Fire Support Group's units.
4. There is just barely enough organic transport to move the whole unit without assistance, but since they are soft skinned vehicles this means the units will have to hump all that equipment and ammo relatively long distances because the trucks won't be able to get close enough.  Either that or they will lose trucks, which then makes the unit slow to move for other reasons.  In other words, the vehicles provide the unit with operational mobility, not tactical.
5. There is absolutely no sustainment elements at all, which means they are 100% reliant upon coordination with higher level units for everything other than pulling triggers.  Given Russia's casualties and poor communications capabilities, this increases the chances that the unit finds itself unable to be resupplied at a critical point in time.  Waiting around for someone else to do something for them will further limit how quickly they can respond.
6. The ad-hoc nature of the Company as a whole, coupled with the paltry training, likely means high levels of casualties without much to show for it.

My bottom line conclusion is this formation is weak and poorly conceived.  When I was typing out the structure I kept feeling like I was documenting a late WW2 German experimental formation except with a bad idea as the starting point.

Steve

 

Not enough radios across the board.  Only the recon and capture squads have them called out. Commander doesn’t have a dedicated radio operator?  Drone team doesn’t?  Fire support squads don’t?  How do they know where to apply support?  If the radios are complicated enough that five of the squads have dedicated operators called out, then they should have dedicated operators in more places.

Edited April 7, 2023 by chrisl

[JonS]

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

definition "persons approximately". 

I'm familiar enough with it to recognise it immediately. It's usually used to refer to passengers - generally on a plane - but it's a convenient shorthand that gets used all over.

However, in my experience, it is NEVER 'personnel, approximately' it is always used as an exact number. When someone asks how many people there are on a plane, "oh, about 120? 130? Something like that" is not an acceptable answer.

I have no idea how the abbreviation was arrived at - I assumed it came from 'passengers' rather than 'personnel' - but never really looked into it.

And that is now far too many words on a three ltr. abbrev. (Although not a TLA)

Edited April 7, 2023 by JonS

[MikeyD]

I've discovered my own cache of top secret government documents. Its totally legit, I swear!

 

[Beleg85]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The "Hitler Diaries" were also quite substantial and detailed

The most credible thing in these docs is absolutelly hillarious way it was published.

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heh... "Vagner" is funny indeed.

At least Jomini has serious contender now, when comes to detailed maps:

 

[chrisl]

36 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Internet era is brutal...they almost found "patient zero", at leats according to current knowledge.

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644399422028087297

Guy published 31 UA-related documents early March on something called WowMao (those names...) +100 other files on Discord he posted during this war. Interesting, he seems to get away with it for long time, and he claims he found them on other server with N-word, he cannot spell because of Twitter rules...what a comedy.

Probably there are several highly-advenced crisis team somewhere in bunkers in US trying to seriously search for it. At least CNN puting it on front page, even at the cost of media feast over Trump, may suggest it is not that dangerous...

But seriously, amount of docs is quite substantial. And very detailed, especially regarding SAM batteries and their expediture.

[crossposted with Zeitgeist partially].

Could be a hobbyist or rpg player/game designer working on their SMO campaign game.  Some of you might be old enough to remember the Secret Service convincing themselves that Steve Jackson Games was writing a handbook for cybercrime.

[Fenris]

Don't believe I've seen molotov balloons before.

 

[chrisl]

11 minutes ago, JonS said:

I'm familiar enough with it to recognise it immediately. It's usually used to refer to passengers - generally on a plane - but it's a convenient shorthand that gets used all over.

However, in my experience, it is NEVER 'personnel, approximately' it is always used as an exact number. When someone asks how many people there are on a plane, "oh, about 120? 130? Something like that" is not an acceptable answer.

I have no idea how the abbreviation was arrived at - I assumed it came from 'passengers' rather than 'personnel' - but never really looked into it.

And that is now far too many words on a three ltr. abbrev. (Although not a TLA)

The most plausible thing I’ve found is that it dates back to days when data transmission was expensive, so they abbreviated everything and terminated abbreviations with “x”.  To this day if you read the short data things on aircraft status, weather delays and cancellations are WX, mechanical are MX, and probably a few others.

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, JonS said:

I'm familiar enough with it to recognise it immediately. It's usually used to refer to passengers - generally on a plane - but it's a convenient shorthand that gets used all over.

Would you expect to see it in the context of this doc?  Seems out of place, but I don't normally see Top Secret briefings so what do I know?

29 minutes ago, JonS said:

However, in my experience, it is NEVER 'personnel, approximately' it is always used as an exact number. When someone asks how many people there are on a plane, "oh, about 120? 130? Something like that" is not an acceptable answer.

Yeah, if the origin was for passenger manifests, "approximately" would not do at all

Steve

[Sojourner]

Another leak reported by NY Times, this batch with stuff relating to Mid East and China. I don't subscribe, but I could read it so this article may not be behind their paywall.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/07/us/politics/classified-documents-leak.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230407&instance_id=89697&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=127060291&segment_id=129881&te=1&user_id=314c088543b55272263c5d404e9a5425

[Beleg85]

11 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Another leak reported by NY Times, this batch with stuff relating to Mid East and China. I don't subscribe, but I could read it so this article may not be behind their paywall.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/07/us/politics/classified-documents-leak.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230407&instance_id=89697&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=127060291&segment_id=129881&te=1&user_id=314c088543b55272263c5d404e9a5425

"One analyst described what has emerged so far as the “tip of the iceberg.” 

Well, at least the theory of 13-year old kid trying to impress his gaming mates by showing them his daddy's documents seems to be debunked somewhat.

Edited April 7, 2023 by Beleg85

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

Could be a hobbyist or rpg player/game designer working on their SMO campaign game.  Some of you might be old enough to remember the Secret Service convincing themselves that Steve Jackson Games was writing a handbook for cybercrime.

Lolololol I remember that!!