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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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4 hours ago, dan/california said:

the Russian solution

If Russia wanted anything to do with the Baltics, they would have followed the game plan RAND displayed in their infamous wargames to make the inside the beltway 3 martini lunch crowd happy. On paper, the Baltics would have been easier - but for NATO - ah shucks. So they went after the real prize anyway, Ukraine. Which they though would be easier. The thing is, Russia can't get out of its own way and either direction should have been avoided. Perhaps Russia should have grabbed Kiev in 2104 first. After the Crimea, the west was warned and element of surprise lost. 

 

 

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Bunching up anywhere, ever, period, is a bad idea. There are a LOT of more or less guided things out there that kill you, and the surest way to get one sent to address is to have enough targets in the blast zone to convince the FDC your spot deserves the love. The Russians have been extraordinarily slow to figure this out. In my opinion that is because a company grade officer is the lowest level that is able to direct anything whatsoever.

Edited by dan/california
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Apologies if this article has been posted before. I gave up keeping up with thread a long time ago and I only scan it from time to time to read Haiduk's posts.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainian-soldiers-in-bakhmut-our-troops-are-not-being-protected

I thought it was an interesting read dealing with some of the issues plaguing the Ukrainian army in the Bakhmut area.

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21 minutes ago, Zveroboy1 said:

Apologies if this article has been posted before. I gave up keeping up with thread a long time ago and I only scan it from time to time to read Haiduk's posts.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainian-soldiers-in-bakhmut-our-troops-are-not-being-protected

I thought it was an interesting read dealing with some of the issues plaguing the Ukrainian army in the Bakhmut area.

Here's an interesting Ukrainian officer's take on this situation.  As he puts it, information coming out of Bakhmut is "bipolar" in that either it's all a huge failure vs. it's hard but worth it.

Steve

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I apologize if this has been brought up already but I can never find the time to keep up with this thread.

What does everyone think about the destroyed Nordstream pipeline? Originally, I figured the US did it because they have the motive and the means to do it but several people disagreed. Now the story has changed to "The Ukrainians did it" after Seymour Hersh laid out a case for the US blowing the pipeline. 

Has anyone's opinions changed? Does it make that much of a difference?

https://www.democracynow.org/2023/2/15/nord_stream_sy_hersh

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

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Oh I am not going to venture out a guess about the fate of Bakhmut. I am just trying to get a better sense of the situation on the ground. Yeah soldiers grumbling and complaining is pretty much part and parcel of any conflict. You obviously need to take it with a pinch of salt. It is just that sometimes it is easy to get a distorted or partial picture of the events with the way the war is portrayed in the media. It can easily become a caricature or a meme. I thought the article did a good job of highlighting some of the issues on the Ukrainian side. Russian woes and failures are well known.

You follow the tiktok war, watch enough combat footage of drones stalking hapless Russians acting like bumbling fools and soon you get this mental view of the Ukrainian army being almost omnipotent, highly flexible and reactive and then you see this:
 

Quote

A Russian BTR terrorized Ukrainian infantry around a part of Bakhmut for a month, without being shot by heavy weapons even once, even though it had been reported up the chain of command multiple times and multiple soldiers confirmed the casualties it was causing. 

"That's why positions get given up," says the younger Serhiy. "They wouldn't be given up if you could transmit that a BTR's been riding around for a month (shooting people). If they took care of that BTR, the positions would have been secure."

 

Edited by Zveroboy1
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree that first video of all the Russians lying in the trench are just sleeping.  The second one, though, certainly isn't.  Interesting that the bodies look intact. 

Steve

I have a feeling they've been moved to where they are pictured.  The arms up plus the clothing either riding up or down the torso suggests to me the bodies have been dragged by the hands or feet.

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48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

First images of Ukraine training on Strykers I've seen:

This would be a good unit to keep in reserve for expoitation.  Fast moving, light logistics footprint, infantry centric.  It would be a dumb unit to use for a breakthrough.

Steve

You wrote a lot of eloquent stuff about how the Stryker's trades off tactical punch for operational mobility all the way back when CMSF came out. It is all still correct.

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35 minutes ago, Simcoe said:

I apologize if this has been brought up already but I can never find the time to keep up with this thread.

What does everyone think about the destroyed Nordstream pipeline? Originally, I figured the US did it because they have the motive and the means to do it but several people disagreed. Now the story has changed to "The Ukrainians did it" after Seymour Hersh laid out a case for the US blowing the pipeline. 

Has anyone's opinions changed? Does it make that much of a difference?

https://www.democracynow.org/2023/2/15/nord_stream_sy_hersh

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

1. There's zero evidence of any sort that the US did it. Hersh's claims didn't stand up to the lightest scrutiny (i.e. boats were not in service he claimed were involved) and the logic of destroying the pipelines that the US had already caused to be cut off doesn't hold up. 

2. It turned out that the "Ukrainians did it" came from intercepts of Russian comms. Since Russia has had enormous evidence in the last year or so that their comms are compromised, it's not unlikely an attempt to muddy the waters. In addition, it was an oddly professional job yet the folks who supposedly did it then left explosives traces all over the boat they used to do it. 

In the end the motives, means and bad judgement all at this point all look like Moscow or a proxy thereof until we get some legit evidence otherwise. 

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1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

Nice practice range 2km from a Leo 2 you need to start with something easy for a Turkey-Shoot.

 

Looks like the plot thickens. This train has been spotted multiple times.
https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11yfbh9/alleged_video_showing_t5455s_going_towards_ukraine/

Time to send every running Leopard 1 to Ukraine and have a delayed early Cold War gone hot 60 years later
 

@The_Capt Do you know what happened to the decommissioned Canadian Leopard 1 tanks?

Edited by SteelRain
misspelled the capt
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3 minutes ago, SteelRain said:

Looks like the plot thickens. This train has been spotted multiple times.
https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11yfbh9/alleged_video_showing_t5455s_going_towards_ukraine/

 

Yikes!  That is a good number pulled out of the back of the closet!  Do they even have reliable ammo for them?

When the T-62s first appeared they were seen on railcars.  Some wondered if they were going to be dug in as pillboxes.  Still a possibility for this even thought that didn't seem to happen with the T-62s.

Steve

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Ukrainian MoD reported attacks by Russian forces have spiked upwards:

After a significant decline, it seems to me that the Bakhmut and Avdiivka fronts are likely responsible for most of the increase.  Russia is probably realizing that either they take something now or it's not going to happen because once the weather improves they are going to have to deal with Ukraine's own offensive activities.

Steve

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