How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Lol - facts not in evidence, your honour. There is almost nothing about the last 12-18 months that suggest 'calculated move'.

I think all the moves are calculated, but all the players assign different values to the variables, so the same situation leads to different ‘calculated’ expectations and responses. 

[Fenris]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

There is also Bonaparte's razor" Never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity". Russian pilot could have been trying to disrupt the flight of the drone by his crazy Ivan maneuvres but did not pull out on time. As the common wisdom indicates, not pulling out on time has very serious consequences.

This was my first thought.  We've seen a lot of examples over the past year showing us that not all RU servicemen are nearly as proficient or switched on as the pre-war propaganda lead everyone to believe.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Fenris

[The_Capt]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

But that's just it... it appears that early in the war the usual Russian harassment activities were ratcheted back.  Presumably this was ordered by Putin to avoid his numbnuts military from accidentally giving NATO a reason to widen the war.  If not directly, then by enthusiastically providing something to Ukraine that Putin rather have the West continue hem and haw over.  So this incident was (almost) totally out of character since early in the war.

The Russians say they had a threat coming in and they went up to investigate, causing the US drone pilot to do something dumb that resulted in the AQ-9 falling into the sea.  Anybody believe that?  I certainly don't.

The best thing to do is take a Russian statement and change all the wording to be the opposite.  If you do that, the Russians knew it was an AQ-9, knew it wasn't headed towards Russian airspace, went to intercept it because it was an AQ-9, then engaged in in a way that caused it to crash.

These AQ-9 flights are routine.  There is no reason to suggest this one specific flight was any different than any of the hundreds of others.  Which suggests someone made a decision first then ordered the planes to go up close and personal. 

Not only did the Russians likely know what this was even before the went up into the air, it would have been very easily confirmed almost instantly once getting into visual range.  No need to get within collision distance.  Which means the Russians most likely intended to bring the drone down.

The fuel dump was the first attempt at a plausible deniable take down of the drone, but it didn't work and so hitting the prop with a wing did the trick.

The amount of time and precision flying that is necessary to clip the prop instead of missing or catastrophic collision is immense.  It is also unlikely that the Russian plane was flying so close that it couldn't have maneuvered out of the way if the AQ-9 suddenly changed its flight pattern (which, as I understand it, is not SOP for these situations).

Improvisational confrontations with the US are not something lower level or even senior level commanders would do on their own.  That isn't the sort of thing Russians do, so that leaves either complete accident (facts say otherwise) or orders from Putin himself (generally, at least).

Steve

Very glad it was unmanned, if the US had lost a live pilot this would be a very different day.  This will create an interesting little ROE conundrum though - should we kill a Russian human to protect an unmanned asset?

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for posting.  First I've seen of it.

This battle would have gone very differently if the guys at the bottom of the screen had only withdrawn to the first bend instead of three bends back.  Or if the guys to in the upper part of the screen had more hand grenades and hadn't withdrawn.  Seems the coms within the trench weren't good at all, nor does it seem the drone's information was getting to them.

Looks like got that shot by his comrades was able to get out of there on his own power, but the guy he was initially with didn't.  One Ukrainian soldier didn't look to make it, one other definitely wounded.

I think I saw a dud hand grenade tossed by the Russians.

Steve

At the end was an episode, when after the clash both squad leaders made cease fire agreement to take own KIA/WIA. UKR commander rises up hands to show he comes to own wounded/killed soldier unarmed, but in this time Russian commander throws grenade and runs away

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Very glad it was unmanned, if the US had lost a live pilot this would be a very different day.  This will create an interesting little ROE conundrum though - should we kill a Russian human to protect an unmanned asset?

I am absolutely positive that is why the AQ-9 was targeted.  The ramifications for taking out something unmanned vs. manned are still in flux.  Dare I mention balloons?   Even though the Chinese balloon was over US soil I'm not sure it would have been shot down if it had been manned.  The paperwork alone is a disincentive!

My overall premise is that Putin decided something needed to be done to change the equation.  There's a couple of different things he could hope to achieve, any one of which he would be happy with (this is Putin's core way of thinking).  The AQ-9 was chosen because it would have the most benefit and the least risk.  And so, splash one AQ-9.

Steve

[Beleg85]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for posting.  First I've seen of it.

This battle would have gone very differently if the guys at the bottom of the screen had only withdrawn to the first bend instead of three bends back.  Or if the guys to in the upper part of the screen had more hand grenades and hadn't withdrawn.  Seems the coms within the trench weren't good at all, nor does it seem the drone's information was getting to them.

Looks like got that shot by his comrades was able to get out of there on his own power, but the guy he was initially with didn't.  One Ukrainian soldier didn't look to make it, one other definitely wounded.

I think I saw a dud hand grenade tossed by the Russians.

Steve

Yeah, hard to imagine how confusing and psychologically demanding must be this kind of trench battle. Recon drones could theoretically do wonders here, but only if every soldier has fresh connection to vision from the top- which probably rarely is the case.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

At the end was an episode, when after the clash both squad leaders made cease fire agreement to take own KIA/WIA. UKR commander rises up hands to show he comes to own wounded/killed soldier unarmed, but in this time Russian commander throws grenade and runs away

Thanks, that is what I thought we were seeing.  Certainly they were well within voice range.

Steve

[Holien]

2 hours ago, chrisl said:

Short of shooting them down, what's an aircraft response team going to do?  An MQ-9 costs about $30M - not worth getting into a direct shooting match over.  Better to have something Russian quietly disappear.

Just having a couple of jets stand guard would be enough to stop the Russians hitting it. You also get direct video evidence as you now have 3 potential video sources showing what is happening. 

I don't know if the MQ 9 has a 360 camera I guess not, so not sure what evidence they have to support the description of what happened.

So a couple of baby sitters near by, might now be needed for these flights to continue. 

If Russia is now picking up the wreckage I wonder what they or China can learn from it...

[Haiduk]

Here is other post of our soldier of 93rd brigade, who raised a flame about Bakhmut. Now he reposted FB article of other serviceman, who writes some things, which show us why Wagners have success in Bakhmut. And this is not only because thier flexible tactic + drone control of attacks + meat waves + unlimited arty and - many of our poor trained troops.

We have SEVERE lack of artillery support. Even "conscript" level troops can more stable if they have proper arty support. Wagners attack continuolsly with small groups from different directions. And if our the same small squads turn out face to face with Wagners w/o arty supoprt, thius quickly exhausts small-arms / RPG ammunition on our positions and this is also factor, which forces our troops to withdraw

Translation:

- 12th of March Russian T-90M was spotted in northern part of Zabakhmutka (eastern district of Bakhmut). Artillery stike was conducted, but because of lack of shell, howitzers could fire only several times and couldn't hit the target. Closese hit was in the roof of hose, where tank hide. But Russian crew paniced and abandoned the tank, hiding in other place.

- Information about tank were transmitted up be C2. At the evening some, probably arty spotters of brigade level or some drone recons communicated about T-90M question - they told they could hit this tank with "western wunderwaffe"

- further typical Soviet sh....t has begun

- 13th of MArch, when all plan of strike was agreed on lower levels (Russian tank still stands on the same place!),  "big bosses" of some HQ denied the strike because "western wunderwaffe" is too expencive and allowed to use only if target is firing or there is a threat of breakthrough. But your tank just abandoned, so no. 

- All day lower level chain has been proved that "wunderwaffe" is worth to be used on T-90M in 2.5 millions $. "Chiefs" gave permission.

- 14th of March. Russian tankers finished drink vodka in basement, sat in their tank again and changed position. Spotters handed over targeting directly to infantry and communicated them directly to brigade level arty. Howitzers made two shots, missed and... this is over - technical malfunction. Tank ran away.

And this is only top of iceberg! Russian units movie mostly free on 1-3 km from zero line! Not only infantry, but jeeps, armored vehicles etc. There was happen they moved Grad on 3,6 km to our positions, but several shots forced them took away. 

We know 75 % of Rusian positions, command centers of company/battalion levels, but we can't hit them! No ammo! Severe limits ! If work is permited we have limit in 5-7 shells, but this is in more "fat" days!  

As far as on 18th of Feb we were promised to solve shell problem for the week. Now 14th of March...

Edited March 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The problem is that the same pro-Russian and/or isolationist wings of either party has used potential military conflict with Russia as a reason to not have even basic national security policies that put "America First".  Their argument, as with the same mindset prior to WW2, was "don't do anything to potentially anger the bully.  Don't look at him, don't speak unless spoken to, and by God if he asks for your lunch money you just give it to him.  Suffer the wedgies as well, because it could be much worse".

Which means the extremes of both parties have, for maybe once in a generation, made a point that is logically consistent; don't do anything to support Ukraine because it might anger Russia and that might get Russia to do something that starts WW3".  It's a logical and consistent argument built on no historically relevant foundation, but it exists anyway.

It does seem like Russia has figured out it's in for a world hurt soon if it doesn't manage to do something to change the equation.  Getting the US to fight amongst itself about supporting Ukraine over fears of WW3 is not all that bad a move to resort to for a country with only bad moves left to play.

Steve

From everything I can see, DeSantis' response to Carlson is rebounding against him. Sure, it's an issue with the MAGA folks but it's far down their list of priorities. For everyone else, including a significant swathe of Republicans, it's a red alert appeasement warning. And today, the latter folks are already pointing at Russian aggression in international waters and saying "There. See? Russia is the aggressor.". 

There's also a clear chain of events here that strongly indicate that this was a harassment maneuver that was botched. If Russia wanted to simply take down the drone, that's pretty easily done. Instead fuel was spilled on it, hazardous maneuvers were attempted, etc until the pilot made a mistake. If Russia was really trying to send a message to MAGA of it's stone cold escalation dominance, there are simpler ways.

[cesmonkey]

Quote

The source with knowledge of the incident told Breaking Defense the initial indications are that it was an accidental impact by the Russian pilot

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/03/russian-jet-collides-with-us-drone-over-black-sea-in-unprofessional-act/

Quote

"There was [a] deliberate intent to interfere with the MQ-9, but the collision seems to be simple incompetence," an Air Force official separately told The War Zone.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-su-27-collided-with-u-s-mq-9-over-black-sea

Edited March 14, 2023 by cesmonkey

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

lot to do something dumb that resulted in the AQ-9 falling into the sea.  Anybody believe that?  I certainly don't.

Flightradar should be able to shed *some* light on that question, at least in terms of final location and heading.

[DesertFox]

Devastating judgement on state of affairs of german army:

But Högl said that even if some new equipment was on its way, in 2022 “not a cent had arrived from the special fund”. She added: “If we stayed at the current pace and the existing framework conditions, it would take about half a century before just the current infrastructure of the Bundeswehr was completely renovated.”

Germany’s military upgrade to take ‘half a century’ at current pace, says report | Financial Times (ft.com)

German military in worse shape than before Russia's invasion -official | Reuters

Edited March 14, 2023 by DesertFox

[Elmar Bijlsma]

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Devastating judgement on state of affairs of german army:

But Högl said that even if some new equipment was on its way, in 2022 “not a cent had arrived from the special fund”. She added: “If we stayed at the current pace and the existing framework conditions, it would take about half a century before just the current infrastructure of the Bundeswehr was completely renovated.”

Germany’s military upgrade to take ‘half a century’ at current pace, says report | Financial Times (ft.com)

The Beeb has an article on it too, for us cheap feckers.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64955247

But yes, this fits with what little I know about German procurement. It's a complete shambles.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Elmar Bijlsma

[chrisl]

Twitter thread from RAND corp person who did a report on similar Russian signaling, with link to the full report in the thread:

 

[Harmon Rabb]

AFU servicemen training in Germany. Train hard boys, get lots of practice using those Bradleys.

By the way, love the use of "Du Hast" by Rammstein in this video, takes me back to the early 2000s.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

AFU servicemen training in Germany. Train hard boys, get lots of practice using those Bradley's.

By the way, love the use of "Du Hast" by Rammstein in this video, takes me back to the early 2000's.

Looks like a good sized unit, lots of vehicles.  Company at least, hopefully a full battalion.  Can't wait for these to be chewing up RU defenses.  RU needs to pay and pay hard for what they've done.  

With all the talk of shortages around Bakhmut it's good to see this and remind us that Bakmut shortages might not be indicative of overall shortages.  

[Battlefront.com]

51 minutes ago, billbindc said:

From everything I can see, DeSantis' response to Carlson is rebounding against him. Sure, it's an issue with the MAGA folks but it's far down their list of priorities. For everyone else, including a significant swathe of Republicans, it's a red alert appeasement warning. And today, the latter folks are already pointing at Russian aggression in international waters and saying "There. See? Russia is the aggressor.". 

The counter argument from the pro-Russian/isolationists is "well, we shouldn't have been nosing around in their backyard like that!".  Typical appeasement argument... it always boils down to let the bully do whatever he wants and stay out of his way.

The historical example for this is when FDR had the Coast Guard escort merchant ships going to the UK.  One was sunk and the isolationists said "the Germans told us they would sink our ships if we got involved, we got involved, our ship was sunk, so we got what we deserved".

51 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There's also a clear chain of events here that strongly indicate that this was a harassment maneuver that was botched. If Russia wanted to simply take down the drone, that's pretty easily done. Instead fuel was spilled on it, hazardous maneuvers were attempted, etc until the pilot made a mistake. If Russia was really trying to send a message to MAGA of it's stone cold escalation dominance, there are simpler ways.

I don't think this was primarily a message to the MAGA/isolationists, but it's going to be there anyways.  The people that present arguments for "America Last" are not inherently rational, therefore the facts of this incident, or 100+ years of dealing with Russia generally, don't matter one iota.  This is inherently an emotional issue that is propagated by people who stand to benefit politically and/or financially.  Or are just plain nuts.

Steve

[billbindc]

48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The counter argument from the pro-Russian/isolationists is "well, we shouldn't have been nosing around in their backyard like that!".  Typical appeasement argument... it always boils down to let the bully do whatever he wants and stay out of his way.

The historical example for this is when FDR had the Coast Guard escort merchant ships going to the UK.  One was sunk and the isolationists said "the Germans told us they would sink our ships if we got involved, we got involved, our ship was sunk, so we got what we deserved".

I don't think this was primarily a message to the MAGA/isolationists, but it's going to be there anyways.  The people that present arguments for "America Last" are not inherently rational, therefore the facts of this incident, or 100+ years of dealing with Russia generally, don't matter one iota.  This is inherently an emotional issue that is propagated by people who stand to benefit politically and/or financially.  Or are just plain nuts.

Steve

What's happening in specific is that both Trump and DeSantis are entirely concentrated on winning the MAGA base to the detriment of all other goals. Trump obviously really means it while DeSantis seems to have decided that it is a useful political strategy. I've been watching this unfold pretty closely and so far, there has been a lot more reprobation aimed at DeSantis than praise. The bottom line is that MAGA just doesn't rate this issue as high as they do many others. They *are* driven...largely for exactly the reasons you'd imagine...by the idea of confrontation with China. Russia is seen as a distraction rather than a burning issue. And that's the problem for both Trump and DeSantis. Aiding Ukraine is a highly emotive issue for their domestic opponents and merely a tepid one for their supporters. Put bluntly, it's decent primary politics and very bad national politics. 

Edited to add: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/26/politics/ron-desantis-supported-ukraine-russia-kfile/index.html

Edited March 15, 2023 by billbindc

[Vet 0369]

9 hours ago, Grigb said:

Today agent Murz reported that apart from shortage of shells and tubes RU are experiencing shortage of ATGMs and their operators.

 

Gee, you think? I guess that happens when you use them for assault infantry.

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, for sure that can't be ruled out.  And so far the US language is, in fact, implying that is what happened.  However, based on the little info we have I they meant to knock it out of the air using some means of "plausible deniability" vs. shooting it down with cannon or missile fire.  If true, then this was a carefully calculated move from Putin on down.

Steve

Based on another major news feed that I read earlier this evening, I believe that it was undeniably intentional. The report said it evolved over about 30 minutes of “buzzing,” and even included the fighters dumping fuel to coat the drone and set it on fire with their engines.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

What's happening in specific is that both Trump and DeSantis are entirely concentrated on winning the MAGA base

The Presidential race is the only national election. Remember, it’s the MAGA base that is anti-Ukraine, that favors Putin over Biden, focuses on China not Russia. And the MAGA base controls most Republican primaries. Anti Ukraine support is *not* the position of the majority of Congressional Republicans. But neither Trump nor Gov. DeSantis care much about Congress at the moment, only those MAGA primary voters. So, anti-Ukraine spending lines up nicely with federal debt outrage, spending waste etc, however disingenuous that may actually be. The more sky-is-falling fear rhetoric that can be ginned up the better, whether about nuclear war with Russia or all the other extremist favorite hits. Railing against *another* War In Europe is a way for these candidates to distinguish themselves from opponents. Ukraine isn’t their central argument, but it is a strong supporting point. And as the ever popular Western “war weariness” sentiment it gains strength.

All this is a one more indicator that ensuring a sustainable victory by Ukraine sooner, not later is of greater importance than ever. 

[Fenris]

Any validity to this one?  What is the impact of this in Germany currently?

 

[dan/california]

funny, and boggy...

 

[Bil Hardenberger]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am absolutely positive that is why the AQ-9 was targeted.  The ramifications for taking out something unmanned vs. manned are still in flux.  Dare I mention balloons?   Even though the Chinese balloon was over US soil I'm not sure it would have been shot down if it had been manned.  The paperwork alone is a disincentive!

My overall premise is that Putin decided something needed to be done to change the equation.  There's a couple of different things he could hope to achieve, any one of which he would be happy with (this is Putin's core way of thinking).  The AQ-9 was chosen because it would have the most benefit and the least risk.  And so, splash one AQ-9.

Steve

Not to be "that guy".. but the proper designation for this UAV is MQ-9.