How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

Gotta appreciate the creative ability of those who came up with this idea.

[MikeyD]

The array of steering jets on the long range Vilkha2 rocket bears a strong resemblance to the steering system for (CM Cold War) Dragon anti-tank missile.

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Wasn't there a very similar post right when the Kherson count6er attack kicked off? The one that collapsed the northern third of the pocket.

Terrain looks like not as September-October. 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Terrain looks like not as September-October. 

Almost as if UKR is saying "look everybody, we're about to make big strike in the south".  Maybe is just to confuse RU.  I don't suppose we'll see much until the mud is gone, but ya never know.  

[Lethaface]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

There was same situation - the man who was mobilized at the end of January was sent to Bakhmut in February and killed since four days on frontline. He was enlisted to TCC security company, but three weeks later they received an order - to go at war. TCC security company is mostly 45+ men, so part of personnel wrotre a reports they rejected to go to frontline for combat tasks due to health reasons. But this man agreed to go at war. They also had few training - just one time they shot with AK. When about this episode wrote Censor, MoD claimed there will be investigation why untrained personnel turned out on frontline.

But sitiuation on Donbas, not only around Bakhmut is too heavy and we are losing too many people. Of course, most of losses are wounded, but they need substitution. Since December in Ukraine was launched new wave of mass mobilization, and alas in this time it very similar to Russia. If you have a "luck" to became infantryman-rifleman of not so cool brigade like 93rd or other, you have enough chances to turned out in the trench since 7-10-14 of symbolic training

I read that the UKR infantry trained by our marines also only have 30days training. But the marine who was interviewee stood in for the quality, even though he agreed it was short. He said the intrinsic motivation among the Ukrainians, who where civilian just before, helped for training and also inspired/learned something to the marines. So it's better than 7day symbolic training but also short.

[Haiduk]

34 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

I read that the UKR infantry trained by our marines also only have 30days training. But the marine who was interviewee stood in for the quality, even though he agreed it was short. He said the intrinsic motivation among the Ukrainians, who where civilian just before, helped for training and also inspired/learned something to the marines. So it's better than 7day symbolic training but also short.

On other hand, new-formed 47th mech.brigade (initially was planned like assault brigade) already about 6 months under formation and training (units sequentially are sending to Europe for training) and in the same time covers the border with Belarus.  And several other similar brigades under trainig. 

So, probably we are paying with lives of poor-trained riflemen for winning a time for future offensive with new brigades... Though, training level very depends from brigade command and their need in fresh reinforcement. 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Sound of explosion in Kolomna

 

Small update, still a lot unclear:

 

 

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Small update, still a lot unclear:

 

 

What interesting in Kolomna:

- "Machine-building design bureau" - designers of "Iskander" ballistic missiles.

- large ammunition storage

- oil pipeline pump station

[Lethaface]

32 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

On other hand, new-formed 47th mech.brigade (initially was planned like assault brigade) already about 6 months under formation and training (units sequentially are sending to Europe for training) and in the same time covers the border with Belarus.  And several other similar brigades under trainig. 

So, probably we are paying with lives of poor-trained riflemen for winning a time for future offensive with new brigades... Though, training level very depends from brigade command and their need in fresh reinforcement. 

I guess it is necessary, but it also makes some sense even though perhaps 'harsh': riflemen need less training for manning the frontline trenches compared to mechanized combined arms brigades and other specialisms. Especially because those will be crucial for making the difference in offensive operations, so extra training pays out extra. So yes unfortunate if your 'lottery ticket' comes up for infantry duty in trench warfare :|. But it's also a job someone needs to do. 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Lethaface

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

... and here ...

Seems that the BP-540 is a HEAT-T projectile so could be that the 'issue' is that HE rounds are/were in short supply (or just because incompetence) and artillery are getting issued HEAT-T instead.
https://inertproducts.com/product/bp-540-152mm-russian-heat-t-projectile/

Edited March 2, 2023 by Lethaface

[JonS]

2 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Seems that the BP-540 is a HEAT-T projectile so could be that the 'issue' is that HE rounds are/were in short supply (or just because incompetence) and artillery are getting issued HEAT-T instead.
https://inertproducts.com/product/bp-540-152mm-russian-heat-t-projectile/

It could be. It could be any number of things. I think the mechanical translation ("cumulative BP-540s"?!) isn't helping.

[Lethaface]

8 minutes ago, JonS said:

It could be. It could be any number of things. I think the mechanical translation ("cumulative BP-540s"?!) isn't helping.

I tried translating the words from the telegram link via Google and that gave the same result, but DeepL made some more sense of it, FWIW: 

Quote

 

Attention all owners of D-20 and Acacia guns!

If you, like many other Russian artillerymen at the front these days, were brought instead of fragmentation shells... shaped-charge BP-540 shells instead of fragmentation shells and ordered them to try to hit something from closed positions, then... now you can try to do it!

Update your artillery notebooks here.

The work to urgently add this projectile to our 152mm artillerymen's workbook was funded by PriZZрак Novorossiya.

 

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Lethaface

[Lethaface]

2 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

https://www.firstpost.com/world/german-defence-minister-says-his-country-cannot-protect-itself-in-war-12232132.html

 

This is concerning

Well not really news, I guess it's good it's now formally 'konstatiert'. It will at least become more difficult to sweep it under the rug again.

[sburke]

2 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

https://www.firstpost.com/world/german-defence-minister-says-his-country-cannot-protect-itself-in-war-12232132.html

 

This is concerning

actually, this is great news!  If unable to defend itself, they should turn over EVERYTHING to someone who can - the UA!  How soon can we expect a handoff from the Bundeswehr?

[Lethaface]

2 hours ago, Yskonyn said:

Well, this is what you get when government has cut defense funding for the last decade or two. The Netherlands presides in a similar state and I am sure many EU countries have a similar sorry military status. IF it would come to a conventional war where borders need to be defended on a per country basis.

The (political) narrative here in the Netherlands has been that we don't need a conventional war defensive military, but that we are better off with smaller scale but more high tech military in order to assist in NATO ops. (in a nutshell), despite ongoing pleas from within our military to act otherwise.

Luckily the narrative seems to be changing and we have NATO. And I don't see a conventional war coming into western europe anytime soon either.  But I don't think there is any discussion anymore about the need to bolster military assets and funding for the coming years in NATO countries.

Indeed we are also lacking. Although I think 'specializing' wouldn't be a bad thing necessarily. We don't need a full corps with armored/mechanized brigades and all bells and whistles, but can focus on capabilities less available in NATO/EU. I think the integration with German army is a good idea. 

Hopefully the funding will be improved in sustained fashion and put someone with actual military experience in charge of the modernization/restoration instead of it becoming a political toy and much of the money going to 'advisors' while nothing gets done. 

[MSBoxer]

28 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Indeed we are also lacking. Although I think 'specializing' wouldn't be a bad thing necessarily. We don't need a full corps with armored/mechanized brigades and all bells and whistles, but can focus on capabilities less available in NATO/EU. I think the integration with German army is a good idea. 

Hopefully the funding will be improved in sustained fashion and put someone with actual military experience in charge of the modernization/restoration instead of it becoming a political toy and much of the money going to 'advisors' while nothing gets done. 

I have said it before, and I will say it again

This is the ONE thing I agreed on with our former President.  Our NATO partners needed to contribute more to their own defense and live up to the NATO agreements.  Relying on the US is no defense plan, sure we would live up to our agreement, but there must be some kind of local contribution to hold the line, or at least slow the advance until everyone was up to speed.

What I DID NOT agree with was his threat to leave NATO unless everyone snapped to attention and caved into his tantrum.
 

Edited March 2, 2023 by MSBoxer

[Butschi]

12 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

I have said it before, and I will say it again

This is the ONE thing I agreed on with our former President.  Our NATO partners needed to contribute more to their own defense and live up to the NATO agreements.  Relying on the US is no defense plan, sure we would live up to our agreement, but there must be some kind of local contribution to hold the line, or at least slow the advance until everyone was up to speed.

What I DID NOT agree to was his threat to leave NATO unless everyone snapped to attention and caved into his tantrum.
 

Well, I do agree that if we want to be part of a defense alliance, we should contribute our fair share. I don't agree with your former president that this is about defense budget, though. Germany spends quite a substantional amount of money its our military. Not 2% GPD but GDP is a very indirect proxy for money available to the government at best. The problem is that this money doesn't get us enough. France has nuclear weapons and an aircraft carrier on top of army and air force for a sum that is roughly in the German spending ball park. Although having a capable arms industry, Germany doesn't manage to buy stuff that actually works when coming fresh out of the factory, or maintain the stuff, that's already there. As I've said before, our elite divers don't even have a pool to train in. There is a totally inflated administration that is totally incompetent and probably corrupt. And no amount of money we throw at them will change that.

[MSBoxer]

10 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Well, I do agree that if we want to be part of a defense alliance, we should contribute our fair share. I don't agree with your former president that this is about defense budget, though. Germany spends quite a substantional amount of money its our military. Not 2% GPD but GDP is a very indirect proxy for money available to the government at best. The problem is that this money doesn't get us enough. France has nuclear weapons and an aircraft carrier on top of army and air force for a sum that is roughly in the German spending ball park. Although having a capable arms industry, Germany doesn't manage to buy stuff that actually works when coming fresh out of the factory, or maintain the stuff, that's already there. As I've said before, our elite divers don't even have a pool to train in. There is a totally inflated administration that is totally incompetent and probably corrupt. And no amount of money we throw at them will change that.

I completely agree, it is less the dollar amount or percentage and more about the capability.

Edited March 3, 2023 by MSBoxer

[DesertFox]

42 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

 I think the integration with German army is a good idea. 

I also think that and I also think the franco-german brigade is a good example that this could work on a larger, lets call it NORTHAG / CENTAG / SOUTHAG scale for the whole EU, at least I hope so, but we are not there yet and lets be honest, without US support the EU isn´t capable to supply and defend itself against any large scale aggressor for any meaningful time. However we need to get to that point better sooner than later, because it really would be more than shameful if US-boys would have to come across the atlantic again for a third time within two centuries to save half of europes asses from an autocratic aggressor going on a rampage across europe.

[MSBoxer]

20 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

because it really would be more than shameful if US-boys would have to come across the atlantic again for a third time within two centuries to save half of europes asses

I have no issue coming to the aid of friends, personal or geo-political.  I however dread giving certain elements any opportunity to claim that Europe remains broken and cannot function without U.S. involvement.

[chuckdyke]

The man belongs in an asylum of some description. Can't be a psychopath asylum they would have a lack of security. Bare room illuminated to such a degree it will deprive him of sleep. One way out, out of respect of Russian culture a pistol with one bullet and a bottle of Vodka. 

Putin Ally Issues Chilling Warning After Bryansk 'Terrorist Attack' (msn.com)

[chuckdyke]

29 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

I have no issue coming to the aid of friends, personal or geo-political.  I however dread giving certain elements any opportunity to claim that Europe remains broken and cannot function without U.S. involvement.

The US was the only country Germany actually declared war on. Naturally they attacked Germany to say they came over to save Europe is a little rich. Re arming of the West German army was top priority. Spreading the myth the Wehrmacht were the good guys the others (The SS) were the criminals. Truth not much difference between the Wehrmach and Waffen SS. You don't have an argument with me that the holocaust was an evil crime and the SS Camp Guards deserved everything they got. But to paint the Wehrmacht as a boyscout like organization is a little too much. Apologies it went off topic but I see a bleak future IMHO this won't be contained inside Ukraine.

Edited March 3, 2023 by chuckdyke

[MSBoxer]

7 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

The US was the only country Germany actually declared war on. Naturally they attacked Germany to say they came over to save Europe is a little rich. Re arming of the West German army was top priority. Spreading the myth the Wehrmacht were the good guys the others (The SS) were the criminals. Truth not much difference between the Wehrmach and Waffen SS. You don't have an argument with me that the holocaust was an evil crime and the SS Camp Guards deserved everything they got. But to paint the Wehrmacht as a boyscout like organization is a little too much. Apologies it went off topic but I see a bleak future IMHO this won't be contained inside Ukraine.

I am not sure where you got the impression that I thought the Wehrmacht were boy scouts.  Definitely not my intent.

[Offshoot]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

If you have a "luck" to became infantryman-rifleman of not so cool brigade like 93rd or other, you have enough chances to turned out in the trench since 7-10-14 of symbolic training

Today's Hromadske video is on the 93rd in Bakhmut and starts by talking to a man who was mobilized on Jan 8 and has just been transferred to Bakhmut after training. The topic of experience and the mobilized is a fairly prominent theme throughout.

 

Edited March 3, 2023 by Offshoot