How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Many of Russian troops there are locals with Russian citizenship (some Transnistrians have even four %) ), who signed contract with Russian MoD.

Yes, however their loyalties are unknown. And there is also a shadowy contingent of FSB/GRU and other services there + local "officials" aka banditieros from "Sheriff" company, which is basically one mafia enterpraise running entire "country". It has no operational depth to speak of (as name suggest, it is just a terrain around the river). But overall they do not seem to pose a serious threat to Ukraine and may only apply political pressure on Moldova. Crucially, Transinistria is cut off from Russia by this stage. So political things aside, from purely military standpoint it would probably be a cakewalk for several Ukrainian brigades, especially experienced ones- if anybody would like to use them, ofc.

 I don't believe it will happen, but both sides are flexing their muscles very clearly in last weeks. Moldovan army is in shambles, but I heard some reports they were undertaking some inspections and trainings during last year. I wouldn't be surprised to find out some western instructors (probably French, as they seem to be responsible for southern part of Eastern Flank of NATO) are helping them in various, official or half-official ways.

EDIT: @Battlefront.com already made similar post.

Vuhledar saga continues:

 

Edited February 27, 2023 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

36 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I really do hope Putin does something stupid in Moldova.  I mean, beyond the stupid stuff he's done already.  As much as I don't like violence as a form of politics, the truth is that Russia benefits from such reluctance.  The quickest way to resolve Moldova's long suffering foreign occupation is to have Putin give it and Ukraine an excuse to act.

The primary problem for Russia forces in Moldova is Ukraine has pledged support.  Since they are already at war with Russia it's no big deal for them to start open hostilities towards Russian forces.  First and foremost shooting down any Russian aircraft trying to get in or out of Transnistria.  Easily done, so as soon as Ukraine decides to take action the forces in Transnistria are 100% cut off without Ukraine having to do anything other than dedicate some AA to the area.

Worse, a reminder of the strategic situation:

Moldova and Ukraine could cut Transnistria up into isolated pieces in a day.  Looking at that map, we're talking about 3 or 4 places where the distance between Moldova and Ukraine is single digit KMs in depth.  Ukraine isn't Russia... it won't take months to advance that far!

For sure pro-Russians in Transnistria could make occupation rather uncomfortable for Moldova in the short term, but I have a feeling that militarily it won't be a game changer.  Especially the EU/US helps Moldova with political reintegration.

In the end Putin will have one more thing on his list of failures.  Which, I suspect, is why he's not done anything to risk intervention.

Steve

Why fight here at all?  I'd be trying to buy the guys who have power, it'd be super cheap.  And big bonus for securing ammo & weapons & vehicles.  Offer passage to 3rd party country or whatever it takes, plus a nice pile of cash.  Once it's over, maybe renege on the offer.   If the transnistra crooks think their days are numbered I suspect they'd be open to a buyout.

 

[Beleg85]

Short article in Ukrainian about dummy equipment Ukrainians make. Himars trucks (perhaps that is why Russians are so proud of destroying 230% of them ), howitzers, bmps and tanks. They even specifically place various garbage around, to make stations appear real.

https://topcor.ru/32429-vsu-ispolzujut-na-donbasse-naduvnye-rszo-himars-i-gaubicy-m777.html?yrwinfo=1677497598519680-13121404898833565655-sas3-0918-918-sas-l7-balancer-8080-BAL-5842

Edited February 27, 2023 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

34 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Short article in Ukrainian about dummy equipment Ukrainians make. Himars trucks (perhaps that is why Russians are so proud of destroying 230% of them ), howitzers, bmps and tanks. They even specifically place various garbage around, to make stations appear real.

https://topcor.ru/32429-vsu-ispolzujut-na-donbasse-naduvnye-rszo-himars-i-gaubicy-m777.html?yrwinfo=1677497598519680-13121404898833565655-sas3-0918-918-sas-l7-balancer-8080-BAL-5842

Reminds me of this neat video of the Czechs making an inflatable M270 on Twitter.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

I doubt retaking the faux-"republic" part of Donbas may be worth it. After what was basically 9 years of Bucha there are hardly any Ukrainians left in there. Is it worth losing thousands of men to save a few dozen? I'm not sure.

Coal is a thing of the past and trying to earn country money with it is delaying the inevitable.

It may be the uncomfortable truth that may be hard to accept. Unless russians and collaborators really decide they had enough and go home altogether.

Crimea is a different story because there's no other choice - it's in between two seas and blocking one - it will be a constant threat and hazard to naval trade (on which Ukraine depends a lot) unless russians are not there anymore.

Not to mention having a few bases with Harpoons and Neptunes on Crimea shores makes russian navy permanently grounded.

I think Kraze just made The_Capt happy?! I might faint...

[sburke]

Lockheed's HIMARS plant gearing up to meet demand after Ukraine success (yahoo.com)

[cyrano01]

5 hours ago, Eddy said:

Good point. I hadn't even considered the strategic level as I don't think the RA will be able to do the learning at the operational level. Not necessarily because 'Russia sux' but because it is so difficult to do, especially while fighting a war. 

I recently re-read Dr Aimee Fox's Learning to Fight about how the British & Dominion armies went about learning in the FWW and the complexities of it - vertical vs horizontal, formal vs informal, Western front vs other fronts, exercise vs pamphlet etc. They had to try to overcome pre-war prejudices, snobbery between fronts (Western Front thought they had nothing to learn from other fronts), snobbery from British towards Canadian and Australian, traditional vs modern, learning the wrong lessons etc. They just about managed it but it took four years. And despite what can be garnered from Blackadder, those armies were open-minded, keen to learn organisations (well most of them). 

The long and short of it, I got from that book that learning on the job in a war is bloody difficult and complex. 

I read Aimee Fox's book after hearing her speak at a Western Front Association meeting and found it similarly recalled to mind during current events; in the context of just how hard it is to change your doctrine on the fly during a shooting war.  It's also worth noting that, in the end, the BEF and French armies pretty much gave up on trying to bring about deep strategic breakthroughs, recognising that logistics and technology didn't permit them. They got their late war results by breaking into the defences while staying within their own artillery range  and leaving the Germans the options of retreating or making a costly counter-attack. I don't think the Russians have the capability even  to do the break in bit. I suspect their operational art has regressed to about 1915.

Edited February 28, 2023 by cyrano01

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I think Kraze just made The_Capt happy?! I might faint...

Well I am definitely thinking along the same lines.  The “republics” can be boxed up and turned into a sort of buffer zone.  Crimea is too strategic and frankly just retaking Sevastopol is a clear indication of how this war went for the Russians, not wiggling out of that one.

The good news is Crimea is likely the one which can be taken Kherson style once the UA pushes down the centre to the Azov coast.  That bridge will be in range (assuming Ukraine does not get ATACMS) and Crimea can be completely cut off.  That 10km corridor to then north is tight but if the UA continually hammers them for a few months, while they are cut off - they may take the hint.

[Artkin]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Yes, however their loyalties are unknown. And there is also a shadowy contingent of FSB/GRU and other services there + local "officials" aka banditieros from "Sheriff" company, which is basically one mafia enterpraise running entire "country". It has no operational depth to speak of (as name suggest, it is just a terrain around the river). But overall they do not seem to pose a serious threat to Ukraine and may only apply political pressure on Moldova. Crucially, Transinistria is cut off from Russia by this stage. So political things aside, from purely military standpoint it would probably be a cakewalk for several Ukrainian brigades, especially experienced ones- if anybody would like to use them, ofc.

 I don't believe it will happen, but both sides are flexing their muscles very clearly in last weeks. Moldovan army is in shambles, but I heard some reports they were undertaking some inspections and trainings during last year. I wouldn't be surprised to find out some western instructors (probably French, as they seem to be responsible for southern part of Eastern Flank of NATO) are helping them in various, official or half-official ways.

EDIT: @Battlefront.com already made similar post.

Vuhledar saga continues:

 

I know @Haiduk had mentioned in a previous video that Ukraine has been using artillery-deployed mines. But these types of videos are e v e r ywhere. What are these tactics? They don't have Zhukov level armies to clear minefields this way. It's no wonder they have no more AFVs left.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Artkin

[Harmon Rabb]

 

Some Russian officer sounding like a second rate James Bond villain, sharing his idea for activating the San Andreas fault on the Solovyov show.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[sburke]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

Why aren't Belarus folks joining their own army? Exactly. Outcasts tend to find home in other places.

Ten people being different from a million doesn't excuse a million.

Because it's never about what people protest against but FOR what people protest. And how many of them bother.

Russians protest against Putin too. They blame him for not killing Ukrainians hard enough.

1. joining their own army?  That doesn't even make any sense.

2, 100 people committing atrocities with Russia doesn't condemn 9 million.  

comparing the population to Russians supporting Putin is just ridiculous.

and then there is this.

Belarus group claims to have blown up an advanced Russian military aircraft, highlighting tensions within one of Putin's closest allies (yahoo.com)

You'd think with the need of allies to oppose Russia you'd be a little more cognizant of the situation Belarus citizens face and despite that the actual actions they have taken that support Ukraine, but that seems to be something you find challenging.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Artkin said:

 They don't have Zhukov level armies to clear minefields this way. 

Come now! Oh ye of little faith...

EDIT: Damn you, Beleg!!

[akd]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Come now! Oh ye of little faith...

EDIT: Damn you, Beleg!!

Those look like direct hits to hull / turret, not mines.

Edited February 28, 2023 by akd

[chrisl]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Come now! Oh ye of little faith...

EDIT: Damn you, Beleg!!

When I watched it my first thought was "I don't think I've seen a CM vehicle that suffered a mobility kill move that far before stopping. Please fix or do somefink."

[LongLeftFlank]

From TERRA, CM worthy 17 minute video of UA mech "raid" SW of Bakhmut (date unknown). 

One of those rare gems with long takes allowing the viewer to follow the tactical action as it unfolds. English subtitles plus editing to 'tag' the various UA vehicles.

First half is artillery spotting (120 mortars and 777s deeper in). Ground advance begins at 8:50.

...This 'raid' tactic, with 3 BMPs + 1 or 2 tanks crossing an open field to bombard enemy positions (well within RPG range!), then withdrawing again the way they came once the enemy mortars start dropping, seems quite risky.

Is it worth the payoff in (entrenched) enemy killed? The Ukes must have high confidence that the Wagnerite grunts don't have ranged ATGW.

Anyone else care to comment?

Geolocation and (less coherent) highlight reel here:

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-how-the-war-in-ukraine-could-go-nuclear/

If you want the tankie surrender monkey line, this is it. 

Edited February 28, 2023 by dan/california

[Fenris]

Glad to see some in fighting in the RU ranks.  The version of the clip below is (thankfully) blurred so allows the general to retain (some) of his modesty.  The thread has more details and speculation.

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by Fenris

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Glad to see some in fighting in the RU ranks.  The version of the clip below is (thankfully) blurred so allows the general to retain (some) of his modesty.  The thread has more details and speculation.

 

One of The_Capt's better lines " When you get them shooting at each other, you are winning"

Edited February 28, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

Also interesting.

[Jiggathebauce]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Also interesting.

One way to interpret this is that the MOD and Wagner both don't have shells. LOL

[dan/california]

This is probably more accurate than firing them from a helicopter, and takes a twentieth of the resources.

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well I am definitely thinking along the same lines.  The “republics” can be boxed up and turned into a sort of buffer zone.  Crimea is too strategic and frankly just retaking Sevastopol is a clear indication of how this war went for the Russians, not wiggling out of that one.

The good news is Crimea is likely the one which can be taken Kherson style once the UA pushes down the centre to the Azov coast.  That bridge will be in range (assuming Ukraine does not get ATACMS) and Crimea can be completely cut off.  That 10km corridor to then north is tight but if the UA continually hammers them for a few months, while they are cut off - they may take the hint.

Hodges DOES read this thread, I know it! 

 

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Hodges DOES read this thread, I know it! 

 

for sure, he does.  How many many times have we said "only have to knock out three spots & the whole system is down"

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Hodges DOES read this thread, I know it! 

 

Between the difficulty of attacking across a narrow isthmus, American concerns about lunging across a potential redline and the obvious observation that Crimea could be a bigger, more decisive Kherson it's fairly odd to me that this is not being touted as a highly plausible goal of the next UA offensive. In fact, it would be hard to find a more satisfying outcome than a grudging Russian withdrawal from Crimea due to an inability to sufficiently water, feed and supply it.

[Battlefront.com]

`

1 hour ago, akd said:

Those look like direct hits to hull / turret, not mines.

Absolutely.  You can see the detonations above ground level.  Plus, there is *no* way a tracked vehicle could take direct hints to the tracks from AT mines and still keep driving straight.  Tracks are extremely weak.  Even if not totally severed by a detonation it will come apart very quickly, especially as it goes over the drive or idler wheel.  Too much tension and force for it to do otherwise.

That aside, it is amazing this sucker got hit 3 times before it koncked out.  I wonder what hit it?  LATW?  Looks like the first hit had a miss along with it.

Steve