How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I had expected some amount of public unrest plus unhappy elites would have produced a noticeable change in the Kremlin.  Not necessarily an outright replacement for Putin, but something that pushed him to end the war instead of doubling down on it.

No, I think the standard Ivan has about the same psyche as the standard Fritz had in 1945. There would never have been any rebellion against the Nazi regime back then either, simply because the people were that indoctrinated that they really believed in their leadership or simply didn´t care except for their close relatives. I guess you have the same phenomenon in Russia. More or less autocratic regime with a deeply rooted obedience factor printed into the "normal" peoples mind since the Tzar. It will take generations (50 years at least) to get them to something like a western democracy. Key factor will be personal benefit. If they don´t see that, they will never start thinking in western terms.

[Yet]

43 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

This could be a double edged sword.  As the war hits home, folks might feel anger and want vengeance, support war more strongly.  But they now also might, over time, start to realize they've been duped and are simply Putler's pawns because they have some very ugly, hard data.  If the families of the dead start talking to each other, opinion could change over time -- and there's lots of families of dead soldiers now.  

nah, this is reverse Psychology. 

you dont want your beloved one to have died for some weird nonsense. you want your beloved to have died as a hero for a great cause. therefore, no matter your prior opinion or ratio, you will support the war more and sell it to your friends, families and neighbours to improve the feeling and pride for your beloved.

[sburke]

Bulgarian Factories and Secret Task Forces: How the West Hunts for Soviet Arms (yahoo.com)

[danfrodo]

21 minutes ago, Yet said:

nah, this is reverse Psychology. 

you dont want your beloved one to have died for some weird nonsense. you want your beloved to have died as a hero for a great cause. therefore, no matter your prior opinion or ratio, you will support the war more and sell it to your friends, families and neighbours to improve the feeling and pride for your beloved.

Yeah, you are right.  My post was just wishful thinking.  What the hell was I thinking?  I deleted it so as not not cause myself further embarrassment 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

Maybe community service repainting it with more appropriate road paint

Yeah, blood red would be appropriate. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

8 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

No, I think the standard Ivan has about the same psyche as the standard Fritz had in 1945.

I think it is more of the reverse. The Germans in the last days of WW2 were convinced they were the master race and by fighting to the end, they were defending their self-image of superior beings (also, were trying to defend civilians against revenge from Soviets and were subject to draconian discipline with a lot of people executed for desertion, rightly or wrongly in the chaos of disintegrating front).  On the other hand, Russian soldiers who go to the front in the Ukraine seem already halfway convinced they will die because of the stupidity of their commanders, lack of supplies, defective weapons, etc. which they consider a fact of life with which they are not particularly bothered.  

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I think it is more of the reverse. The Germans in the last days of WW2 were convinced they were the master race and by fighting to the end, they were defending their self-image of superior beings (also, were trying to defend civilians against revenge from Soviets and were subject to draconian discipline with a lot of people executed for desertion, rightly or wrongly in the chaos of disintegrating front).  On the other hand, Russian soldiers who go to the front in the Ukraine seem already halfway convinced they will die because of the stupidity of their commanders, lack of supplies, defective weapons, etc. which they consider a fact of life with which they are not particularly bothered.  

Sure, that is equally possible. Be it as it may, the likelihood to see some kind of "revolution" against the ruling system driven from within the majority of the people is slim, to say the least. IMHO of course.

[BlackMoria]

1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

https://youtu.be/aYuUOifr6Mk

Independent journalist that i get a lot of my news from, he also had experience as a contractor. His updates on Ukraine are roughly in line with what this forum brings up; I tend to notice that this forum is the most ahead of the curb on the war, followed by this guy's YouTube, then eventually big mainstream outlets regurgitate what we already talked about for weeks. 

Now the unique refrain that this guy brings up that i want to discuss is this - He argues every time he brings up Ukraine, that Russia is not at the hard part yet. Wether Russia won tomorrow, a year from now, or had won in February 2022, they fundamentally will get defeated trying to occupy the whole country. 

Does the forum agree? How much potential does Ukraine have to make a Russian occupation an absolute quagmire for the invader? Given that UA conventional army is still kicking ***, I agree they can. 

 

 

I agree 100% with Beau of the Fifth's assessment.   We have recent history to confirm that.   Invasion is the easy part.   Occupation is the hard.   Look at the US/Coalition experience in Iraq and Afghanistan.   The opposition was pushed aside easy enough.  Just a couple of weeks or a month tops.  But the occupation portion was where the hard grind was.   Some of the toughest fights in Iraq were the Fallujah battles, which was during the occupation portion.   20 years of occupation in Afghanistan resulted in a withdrawal, conceding a win to the Taliban.

Russia is struggling and getting hammered during the easy part, the invasion.   Assuming Russia could occupy Ukraine (almost statistically impossible but not zero) would be 10x worst dealing with an well organized insurgency.  And Ukraine was looking and planning for an insurgency before Russian crossed the border.   So they have already prepared and trained for it.    Russia will be bled white during the occupation.  Hell, they are being bled white during the invasion portion.   Managing an occupation is an near impossible lift for them now.

[mosuri]

Finland is sending three mine clearing Leopards to Ukraine:

https://yle.fi/a/74-20019449

Maybe not the most exciting development, but should be useful I hope

[Letter from Prague]

5 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Wikipedia already got updated:

This one line, the "In service: 1954 - 1970s (USSR), 2023 Russia" is such a good summary of the absurdity of the situation.

Edited February 23, 2023 by Letter from Prague

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

1. the primary hope I had was that economic hardship would be enough to compensate for most of the above.  I still hold this to be true, however the amount of hardship that's likely needed is far greater than I thought.  Russia's love of Western style standard of living is apparently less important to them than I had expected.

You know, I think about the living standards argument for the West winning, how much does the West really produce and export "better living standards", i mean iphones are made in China, and so I don't think living standards are sliding downward yet to put pressure on Russians. 

Sure the prices go up, and so the availability will go down, but I feel that the loopholes to keep exports going will be broader and more lax than any of the cold war. 

13 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

I agree 100% with Beau of the Fifth's assessment.   We have recent history to confirm that.   Invasion is the easy part.   Occupation is the hard.   Look at the US/Coalition experience in Iraq and Afghanistan.   The opposition was pushed aside easy enough.  Just a couple of weeks or a month tops.  But the occupation portion was where the hard grind was.   Some of the toughest fights in Iraq were the Fallujah battles, which was during the occupation portion.   20 years of occupation in Afghanistan resulted in a withdrawal, conceding a win to the Taliban.

Russia is struggling and getting hammered during the easy part, the invasion.   Assuming Russia could occupy Ukraine (almost statistically impossible but not zero) would be 10x worst dealing with an well organized insurgency.  And Ukraine was looking and planning for an insurgency before Russian crossed the border.   So they have already prepared and trained for it.    Russia will be bled white during the occupation.  Hell, they are being bled white during the invasion portion.   Managing an occupation is an near impossible lift for them now.

Sure, a defeat for Russia is likely, but mind you, Russia is brutal, far more brutal to insurgencies than the West. Chechnya is quiet. The occupied Donbas are fighting for Russia, or already fled to unoccupied Ukraine (or neutral, but the same point stands). 

The West withdrew from Afghanistan cause it no longer had a reason to stay, that wasn't worth the cost. Sure, Russia withdrew too, except the amount dead is way over Afghanistan. 

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It will be interesting to see what Ukraine can do with the BFISTs.  They have done so many incredible things with home made solutions, I wonder how much room there is for dranatic improvements on the ground.

Steve

Drastic jumps in CB effectiveness would be my hope.

Arty is all the RUS Army has left and even that is finally getting eaten to some degree. But stick a battery of Caesars on CB with BFIST and heavy drone surveillance, well,  

https://giphy.com/gifs/pizza-rick-and-morty-mr-poopybutthole-37sgKQ38vBc1a

Edited February 23, 2023 by Kinophile

[Ts4EVER]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Malofeyev is making the case that in order to crush all hope Russians might have had for a better society, they had to be cut off and scared that they might lose everything.  Now it's full on autocracy, including single sourced information, entertainment, arts, and of course education:

 

 

That is literally bomb spot B of Dust 2....

[Kinophile]

5 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

That is literally bomb spot B of Dust 2....

Omg you're right!  The wooden doors! And those crates on the left! Great ambush spot but also super vulnerable if the oppo is familiar. 

[Ts4EVER]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Omg you're right!  The wooden doors! And those crates on the left! Great ambush spot but also super vulnerable if the oppo is familiar. 

They must have used a render with the B replaced by a Z:

[riptides]

34 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

That is literally bomb spot B of Dust 2....

Just flipping crazy.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, BlackMoria said:

I agree 100% with Beau of the Fifth's assessment.   We have recent history to confirm that.   Invasion is the easy part.   Occupation is the hard.   Look at the US/Coalition experience in Iraq and Afghanistan.   The opposition was pushed aside easy enough.  Just a couple of weeks or a month tops.  But the occupation portion was where the hard grind was.   Some of the toughest fights in Iraq were the Fallujah battles, which was during the occupation portion.   20 years of occupation in Afghanistan resulted in a withdrawal, conceding a win to the Taliban.

Russia is struggling and getting hammered during the easy part, the invasion.   Assuming Russia could occupy Ukraine (almost statistically impossible but not zero) would be 10x worst dealing with an well organized insurgency.  And Ukraine was looking and planning for an insurgency before Russian crossed the border.   So they have already prepared and trained for it.    Russia will be bled white during the occupation.  Hell, they are being bled white during the invasion portion.   Managing an occupation is an near impossible lift for them now.

Everybody on the forum knows my opinion of the Russians, H&LL is far to good for them. That said my opinion about how an occupation would have progressed has has changed as this war has progressed. Partly due to how things have gone in Ukraine, and partly due to how things have gone in Russia. Also keep in mind I think the reasonable worst case scenario is Russia getting a cease fire/DMZ on something close to the current front line. Having said all that...

I think Russia was/is willing to kill enough people too make an occupation "work" if they were capable of military victory in the first place. If, again I consider this extraordinarily unlikely, Ukraine fell there would be another huge wave of refugees, possibly five million plus,  that would include most of the people most willing, and able to oppose Russia. The way Putin his treated his own people and soldiers makes it absolutely clear he would murder 250,000 Ukrainians in the initial wave of the take over. He would then deport a million plus to Siberia, probably with the intention of letting winter and starvation kill half of those. The pitiful remnants in Ukraine would get the full Xinjiang treatment, right down to forcing women to marry Russian soldiers. "Make a desert and call it peace" is too kind of a description, but it would be relatively quiet. The kicker is that the I think Putin would find the continued isolation from the West that would result more useful than not for his totalitarian project. 

Yes what I just described is to awful to imagine, that is why we CANNOT let it happen.

45 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

You know, I think about the living standards argument for the West winning, how much does the West really produce and export "better living standards", i mean iphones are made in China, and so I don't think living standards are sliding downward yet to put pressure on Russians. 

Sure the prices go up, and so the availability will go down, but I feel that the loopholes to keep exports going will be broader and more lax than any of the cold war. 

Sure, a defeat for Russia is likely, but mind you, Russia is brutal, far more brutal to insurgencies than the West. Chechnya is quiet. The occupied Donbas are fighting for Russia, or already fled to unoccupied Ukraine (or neutral, but the same point stands). 

The West withdrew from Afghanistan cause it no longer had a reason to stay, that wasn't worth the cost. Sure, Russia withdrew too, except the amount dead is way over Afghanistan. 

All evidence is that we have to break the army to break the regime, not the other way around. 

[Sekai]

37 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

That is literally bomb spot B of Dust 2....

Life imitates art

[NamEndedAllen]

13 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, let’s say you are totally right.  The Col Macgregors of the world have got a bead on reality and we here are deluding ourselves (completely ignoring our track record to date).

The war unfolds as you outline above…so freakin what?  It will be a hard fight, so we should quit now?  We should quit now and hope that Russian and Chinese expansion stops somewhere “over there”?  Especially after we pulled off the field, tails tucked between legs.  Or maybe we should negotiate and hope they leave us alone?  What possible historical experience points to where backing away from an expansionist dictator is a good idea?  That somehow they take a foot off the gas when they win?

Seriously, who are the people who promote this?  They cannot be the children of the great generations who built this world. If they are they have forgotten what their grandparents and parents fought and sacrificed for.

Yes! Indeed! Or, simply ask him, “What do YOU think the price of freedom is?”

The USA 2022 federal budget was 6.011 TRILLION dollars. A billion dollars is a *thousandth* of a trillion. “Countless” dollars??! That 30 billion dollars “poured” into fighting these crimes against humanity (so-called “special military operation”) is a whopping .005 of the American budget last year. Perspective? Americans spent over *50* billion dollars on freaking VIDEO GAMES last year. Yeah. America can do a heck of a lot more even than walking down the street and chewing gum at the same time. Sometimes people forget this, listening to too much fascist inspired crap trying to pass itself off as news.
 

[Yet]

19 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I think you are missing a whole lot of nuance of what actually happened on these missions.  The military was not simply being “police” as there was an open insurgency/guerrilla war going on, which is well outside the scope of police forces. Police forces were not anywhere near prepared to deal with what was going on in these places, and military power alone could not do it either.  These insurgencies were to the point that governments in country could not function and in the end defeated both us and those governments.  We cannot and should not approach this with a “whelp the first three days went really well, watcha gonna do?”

Military power is “designed” to do whatever the political level asks it to do - we do not get to say “sorry we are not designed for this”, we redesign ourselves to the problem and win.  This is an extension of what military power within the context of our nation states, is really there for - to implement policy, and guarantor implement of policy by others.

Moving the goal posts is an incredibly bad idea.  I mean why learn from our mistakes and build better, when “we really won after all?”

i totally agree with the point to learn from our mistakes! i never said we shouldnt.

note that i wrote 'army' in one of the roles. I also didnt suggest those insurgies should be dealt with by police, i suggest that the right job should be done by the right service in the right uniforms. I also even agree that the army is supposed to do everything needed, and i command your guys mentality and flexibility to do everything needed. 

however, the army isnt necessary best in everything. army can fight a war, build a bridge, run a school, keep the order and rule a country. However, when it is possible, bring in the engineers, the police, teachers and the politicians.

the fact that these insurgies kept coming is because not enough people gave the new government their blessing. which is imo a organizational, governmental (political) failure.

 

[danfrodo]

Summary here for today was interesting in that it says lots ~90 attacks yesterday by small RU groups, w over 700 dead and at least 37 vehicles destroyed.  Includes UKR report saying some troops near Vulehdar mutinied and refused to attack -- we've seen that before and I suppose it doesn't matter unless it somehow grows.  But I am sure RU is good at stamping these things out before they spread.  Seems like guys w guns, going to nearly certain death in pointless attacks, might think they've got a better chance shooting their masters and then surrendering??  If it could just grow..... but that's just more wishful thinking on my end.

Note:  is it just me or does the photo at the bottom look totally photoshopped -- look at the feet.  Seems odd.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/23/2154575/-Ukraine-update-As-anniversary-of-invasion-approaches-Russian-forces-have-no-presents-for-Putin

edit/addition:  in the comments below someone posted pics of very rusty RU ammo, allegedly was sent to Wagner.  That would be a hoot, RU military truthfully recording delivery of thousands of shells knowing most were duds or unstable and deadly.  Those zany RU regular military guys seem to have retained their sense of humor (if this is true).

Edited February 23, 2023 by danfrodo
edit

[cesmonkey]

Anyone else been listening to ISW's Overwatch podcast series this past week?

The latest is:
One Year of War Part 3: How Western Weaponry Has Affected Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/overwatch/id1477647189

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Aleksey Tarasov, Ka-52 pilot-instructor, instuctor&research helicopter squadron, probably of 344th Army aviation Center of combat usage and personnel retraining. Was shot down and killed on 2nd of Oct in Kherson oblast. The second crewman - navigator sen.lieutenant Ruslan Usmanov also was killed.   

 

Major Aleksandr Batayev, commander of 83rd separate engineer-sapper battalion of 22nd Army Corps of Coastal Troops, Southern military district. Was killed of 21st of Feb 2023 probably in Kherson oblast

 

Also interesting loss, despite it had lower rank, than major

Captain-lietenant (of reserve, captain equivalent in Ground Forces) Artyom Matlayev. In August 2022 has enlisted to PMC "Redut" and was UAV operator of recon-diversion detachment "Volki" ("Wolves") of this PMC. Was killed on 7th of September near Balakliya. Thus, we have first confirmed mention that near Balakliya this elite PMC was involved.

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Second time for three days explosions heard in Mariupol. Allegedly Russian ammo dump was hit in the port area and the enemy base or storage on "Ilyich" steelworks. No information about what weapon was used. Some Russian propagandists claimed these were GLDSB

Today Ukrainian MoD press-secreter made a statement that "the time is came, when enemy military targets in Mariupol are no more unreachable place for Ukraianian strikes"

Recently there were several strikes on Berdiansk area with usage of probably long-range kamikadze-drones and several unsuccessful strikes with Tochka-U (all were intercepted)

In theory, UKR HIMARS could hit "Ilyich" steelworks, firing from Vuhledar - Novomyhailivka section, but already port is out of range. UKR also could use upgraded "Vil'kha-M" missiles, but since its didn't pass tests in 2021 there wasn't any info about them. UKR episodically used only first version of Smerch upgrade - "Vill'kha" missile (without "M") with range in 70 km.

Edited February 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Second time for three days explosions heard in Mariupol. Allegedly Russian ammo dump was hit in the port area and the enemy base or storage on "Ilyich" steelworks. No information about what weapon was used. Some Russian propagandists claimed these were GLDSB

Today Ukrainian MoD press-secreter made a statement that "the time is come, when enemy military targets in Mariupol are no more unreachable place for Ukraianian strikes"

Recently there were several strikes on Berdiansk area with usage of probably long-range kamikadze-drones and several unsuccessful strikes with Tochka-U (all were intercepted)

In theory, UKR HIMARS could hit "Ilyich" steelworks, firing from Vuhledar - Novomyhailivka section, but already port is out of range. UKR also could use upgraded "Vil'kha-M" missiles, but since its didn't pass tests in 2021 there is wasn't any info about them. UKR episodically used only first version of Smerch upgrade - "Vill'kha" missile (without "M") with range in 70 km.

Could be early test fires of ATACAMS?