How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[paxromana]

26 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Well, at least its not the early, open topped version!

Though the way things are going for AFRF ... won't be long ... mid 2023?

Edited February 23, 2023 by paxromana

[Eddy]

Just listened to the often excellent Ukraine: the Latest podcast. They are quoting a Western defence official (probably British but that's just my guess) stating that the casualty figures are at least 100K Ukrainians, 200k Russian. Those figures are comprised of killed, missing, wounded and taken prisoner. 

An important bit is the mortality rate. The official stated (according to them) that the mortality rate for Ukrainian is between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20, whereas the Russian mortality rate is 1 in 3.

So according to the quote that would be between 5k and 10K Ukrainian dead versus approx. 66K Russian. 

Must admit I'm taking the 1 in 20 with a pinch of salt but what do I know?

Can be found here (I've copied at the time they're talking about this so you don't have to wade through an hour!) :

First reporter fluffs his numbers at first btw

[Pete Wenman]

Shame about the arrests - lets hope its stern telling off for these arch criminals

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:

Shame about the arrests - lets hope its stern telling off for these arch criminals

Where can we help post bail?
 

 

[Dmytro Gadomskyi]

Bradley's and Marders from the Ukraine side vs russian pt76 and BTR-50 will be interesting to watch. 

[Holien]

33 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Where can we help post bail?
 

 

This is England dear chap none of that American rubbish of taking money off folk while awaiting trial!!!

They will no doubt get a caution...

[Holien]

11 hours ago, LukeFF said:

For all countless money spent on this war and the claim that the Russian military is just a bunch of boobs, we're stuck now with a stalemate that has no end in sight

You know what I hold BF accountable for this sentiment!!!

You produce computer games and folk get used to winning after a few hours!!!

How unrealistic and folk then accustomed to winning when they see the real thing think it's a stalemate!!!

So BF buck up and do something about it!!! Jeezzzz 

I really don't know how the folk during WW2 dealt with the length of time it took to defeat the Germans, I guess there were some that thought it was a stalemate and we should have just given up....

KEEP CALM CARRY ON

Edited February 23, 2023 by Holien

[poesel]

Sorry, but I think this will be appreciated here...

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, poesel said:

Sorry, but I think this will be appreciated here...

No need to apologize

Now that we've seen about 20 minutes of this guy at work, my respect for him has gone up even more.  The guy hit his limit, true enough, but he was directly responsible for that trench being held despite his reluctance to move out of the shelter.  He remained 100% functional throughout the engagement, despite his fear.  At the start of the engagement I don't think Predator would have been able to hold the trench without him.  I think Predator figured out pretty quickly he was far more useful keeping him supplied with functioning weapons and 'splody stuff than popping off some rounds with an AK.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, Dmytro Gadomskyi said:

Bradley's and Marders from the Ukraine side vs russian pt76 and BTR-50 will be interesting to watch. 

Before this war is over we might see Bradley's vs. BTR-152

Steve

[Kinophile]

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-usa-handed-over-the-gps-guided-jdam-bombs-to-ukraine-bloomberg/

JDAMson the way, ER version too. 

Noice. 

[Kinophile]

Potentially 50 Caesars to ZSU in a month or so. Bourges factory now operating 3shifts, went from 2-4 Caesars a month to 8.

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/emploi/metiers/armee-et-securite/reportage-ca-fait-voir-que-la-france-est-armee-a-l-usine-caesar-a-bourges-on-est-fier-de-voir-le-canon-livre-a-l-ukraine_5671748.html

Caesars plus BFISTs.... Yeeeeow

Edited February 23, 2023 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

It will be interesting to see what Ukraine can do with the BFISTs.  They have done so many incredible things with home made solutions, I wonder how much room there is for dranatic improvements on the ground.

Steve

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The issue with Mission Command, for example, is that it is designed to empower those closest to then problem and having the most current information.  That has been the tactical level.  Problem is this that looking forward evidence is building that higher will in fact be better informed than tactical levels, may already be happening.  So while in Ukraine MC still appears to have advantages (and in reality all effective command is a combination of both), the underpinning of that advantage could be shifting.  If we treat MC as sacred, we may not see that shift until an opponent does it for us, which is an unacceptable risk.

I have a couple of comments.

1. Maybe at this stage it would be helpful to specify what is meant by MC/DC at the particular command level under discussion to avoid talking about different things. Twitter discussion sparked by a post of Tatarigami_UA mentioned the problem of "senior officers" micromanaging deployment at platoon, company and battalion level. UKR do not fight in divisions, so he may have been talking about a brigade commander or brigade chief of staff telling a company commander where to place his platoons and company support weapons. Referring to that example specifcally - how likely is it that the  brigade staff will have a better picture of the action at the appropriate level to do this better than the company commander? I think it is quite unlikely, even with the modern communications. Even if e.g. the brigade commander has some information from drones etc. it is still more likely to work better if he shares this with the lieutenant on the ground rather than take the decisions himself. So I think MC should be preferrable at this level of fighting, unless junior commanders are known to be incompetent. 

2.  Ukrainian commentators themselves seem to be complaining about too little MC and too much DC. Although they may be wrong, I would give them the benefit of the doubt.

3. An interesting example pertinent to the DC/MC debate came to light a couple of months ago when discussing Wagner tactics. It was related to the the lowest tactical level, showing individual fire team leaders of Wagner's penal battalions being directed by way of drones flying over their heads to move literally a few metres in this or that direction. They had movement routes planned on a tablet with an overhead map looking like a video game screen (so maybe this was not "Mission Command" but "Combat Mission Command"). Paradoxically, I think that at such a low level a directive style of command has a lot more sense than brigade command moving individual platoons/companies on the battlefield. Here, a junior officer or NCO looking at the battle from an overhead drone indeed has much more information than a fire team leader and is not distracted by the enemy fire.

 

 

[Kinophile]

And lastly :

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3673582-zelensky-signs-off-law-allowing-dutyfree-imports-of-uavs.html

Making it easier and cheaper to import UAVs signals a government that gets the idea.... 

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Pete Wenman said:

Shame about the arrests - lets hope its stern telling off for these arch criminals

Maybe community service repainting it with more appropriate road paint

[FancyCat]

 

Good time to remember, that the situations for Russia leading into WWI and today are way different. Example, yes, shortages and domestic dissent paralyzed the state, but the opposition was stronger then, not like today. You had alternative power structures and groups that could take advantage of the vacuum, but so far we see none of that in Putin's Russia. Recall also, 1905 Revolution to which many consider a key part of leading to 1918. 

Might well be the same that 2022 is 1905, where the Russian state gets a moral wound, but isn't out. But no signs of that occurring right now. 

[chrisl]

58 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

No need to apologize

Now that we've seen about 20 minutes of this guy at work, my respect for him has gone up even more.  The guy hit his limit, true enough, but he was directly responsible for that trench being held despite his reluctance to move out of the shelter.  He remained 100% functional throughout the engagement, despite his fear.  At the start of the engagement I don't think Predator would have been able to hold the trench without him.  I think Predator figured out pretty quickly he was far more useful keeping him supplied with functioning weapons and 'splody stuff than popping off some rounds with an AK.

Steve

I think it says a lot about his training and/or experience. My direct experience is sports, but the principle is the same - you train over and over and over so that when you're totally wrecked and barely functioning, the skills you need to keep moving are just automatic.  He kept a steady flow and variety of stuff going smoothly and didn't eff up.  That comes from a lot of practice in less stressful conditions.

[FancyCat]

 

[danfrodo]

xxx

Edited February 23, 2023 by danfrodo
post was just wishful thinking, deleted

[Sojourner]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

This could be brilliant move - engaging with China in negotiations could have the benefit of keeping China on the sidelines. Not to say Zelensky has to agree to anything, just keep them talking. China wants to be seen as a peacemaker, can't do that if they're feeding the fire. China is focused on China - they don't want to harm existing trade deals and they probably have their eye on reconstruction/re-arming contracts no matter the outcome of the war.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

Good time to remember, that the situations for Russia leading into WWI and today are way different. Example, yes, shortages and domestic dissent paralyzed the state, but the opposition was stronger then, not like today. You had alternative power structures and groups that could take advantage of the vacuum, but so far we see none of that in Putin's Russia. Recall also, 1905 Revolution to which many consider a key part of leading to 1918. 

Might well be the same that 2022 is 1905, where the Russian state gets a moral wound, but isn't out. But no signs of that occurring right now. 

Sadly, I am coming to agree with this perspective more and more as the war drags on.

Before and just after the war started I had higher expectations for dissent within Russia AFTER things got really bad (I had no illusions that there would be mass protests against the war without that).  Part of my thinking was that Putin had showed himself to be pretty uneasy about internal stability.  So I don't think I was wrong to think as I did, even if it turns out the threat to Putin's regime was not as strong and his ability to counter dissent more effective than expected.  For all we know Putin is also surprised!

A week or so ago I summarized my assessment of where my own evaluation went wrong.  In brief:

1. "westernization" of Russian thinking was far weaker than I had expected.  Even in the major urban areas it seems the average Russian was more fond of Western products and services than ideas.
2. since 2011 those who have really latched onto Western concepts of governance and standards of living tended to leave Russia and not return to it willingly.
3. after February 2022 the exodus of westernized Russians was profound, thus taking a mindset already in short supply and draining it nearly completely from Russian society.
4. deference to authority, complacency, and willful ignorance are not unique to Russia, however it does appear that Russia continues to suffer far more from this than other nations.  Especially because those who could challenge traditional Russian society opted to leave (two points above).
5. coupled with #4 and Russia's tradition of brutality towards dissent, the regime's police state apparatus is functioning very effectively.
6. the primary hope I had was that economic hardship would be enough to compensate for most of the above.  I still hold this to be true, however the amount of hardship that's likely needed is far greater than I thought.  Russia's love of Western style standard of living is apparently less important to them than I had expected.
7. the losses so far, as spectacular and undeniable as they are even to the Russian people, just aren't bad enough at one time to shake people into action.

Add to this Putin's apparent effective counter attack against challenge from various "elites".  I had expected some amount of public unrest plus unhappy elites would have produced a noticeable change in the Kremlin.  Not necessarily an outright replacement for Putin, but something that pushed him to end the war instead of doubling down on it.

Steve

[Jiggathebauce]

https://youtu.be/aYuUOifr6Mk

Independent journalist that i get a lot of my news from, he also had experience as a contractor. His updates on Ukraine are roughly in line with what this forum brings up; I tend to notice that this forum is the most ahead of the curb on the war, followed by this guy's YouTube, then eventually big mainstream outlets regurgitate what we already talked about for weeks. 

Now the unique refrain that this guy brings up that i want to discuss is this - He argues every time he brings up Ukraine, that Russia is not at the hard part yet. Wether Russia won tomorrow, a year from now, or had won in February 2022, they fundamentally will get defeated trying to occupy the whole country. 

Does the forum agree? How much potential does Ukraine have to make a Russian occupation an absolute quagmire for the invader? Given that UA conventional army is still kicking ***, I agree they can. 

 

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by Jiggathebauce

[Battlefront.com]

The NY Times ran an article a couple of days ago (paywall, sorry!) about how Putin is using this war to get what he wants at home... Soviet Union 2.0.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/19/world/europe/ukraine-war-russia-putin.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230222&instance_id=85972&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=125948&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6

Here are some excerpts:

Quote

As Friday’s first anniversary of the invasion approaches, Russia’s military has suffered setback after setback, falling far short of its goal of taking control of Ukraine. But at home, facing little resistance, Mr. Putin’s year of war has allowed him to go further than many thought possible in reshaping Russia in his image.

And this one is worthy of singling out:

Quote

“Liberalism in Russia is dead forever, thank God,” Konstantin Malofeyev, an ultraconservative business tycoon, bragged in a phone interview on Saturday. “The longer this war lasts, the more Russian society is cleansing itself from liberalism and the Western poison.”

That the invasion has dragged on for a year has made Russia’s transformation go far deeper, he said, than it would have had Mr. Putin’s hopes for a swift victory been realized.
 

“If the Blitzkrieg had succeeded, nothing would have changed,” he said.

Malofeyev is making the case that in order to crush all hope Russians might have had for a better society, they had to be cut off and scared that they might lose everything.  Now it's full on autocracy, including single sourced information, entertainment, arts, and of course education:

Quote

In a series of addresses aimed at shoring up domestic support, Mr. Putin cast the invasion as a near-holy war for Russia’s very identity, declaring that it was fighting to prevent liberal gender norms and acceptance of homosexuality from being forced upon it by an aggressive West.

The full power of the state was deployed to spread and enforce that message. National television channels, all controlled by the Kremlin, dropped entertainment programming in favor of more news and political talk shows; schools were directed to add a regular flag-raising ceremony and “patriotic” education; the police hunted down people for offenses like antiwar Facebook posts, helping to push hundreds of thousands of Russians out of the country.

“Society in general has gone off the rails,” Sergei Chernyshov, who runs a private high school in the Siberian metropolis of Novosibirsk, said in a phone interview. “They’ve flipped the ideas of good and evil.”

 

The most frightening thing about all of this is that Putin might want the unsuccessful war in Ukraine to drag on so he can declare total victory in the war to form a full autocratic state at home:

Quote

Mr. Malofeyev, the conservative tycoon, said Russia still needed another year “for society to cleanse itself completely from the last fateful years.” He said that anything short of “victory” in Ukraine, complete with a parade in Kyiv, could still cause some of the last year’s transformation to be undone.

 

“If there is a cease-fire in the course of the spring,” he said, “then a certain liberal comeback is possible.”

Once again underscoring the importance of not just having Ukraine win back its land, but ensuring that the Putin regime falls even at the risk of everything else.  Because leaving his regime intact is not a good option for anybody, including the Russians.

Unfortunately, the youth of Russia is being brainwashed.  That's going to stick with us for another generation even when this regime falls.

Steve

[sburke]

well Steve at some point you'll have to adjust CM for women in combat.  You'll be so woke.  This woman is awesome.

The Witch of Ukraine Reveals How 'Teeny-Weeny' American Weapons Are Beating Russians (yahoo.com)