How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Two way over-hyped celebs that are turning into statues, and a cheesy sludge that should be above asbestos as a human health risk….this is what we show the world?  No I say!
 

we know you are coming for us.

‘Incredibly intelligent, highly elusive’: US faces new threat from Canadian ‘super pig’ (yahoo.com)

[FancyCat]

I look forward to Republican lawmakers proposing new safety regulations, extending more benefits to rail workers, and advocating greater government intervention in economic realms in the name of safety. 

Say both sides all you want, but on regulation, the consistent policy of the Republican Party forever has been less government regulations stifling economic competition, less unions, less oversight, so unless these calls for focus on Ohio include the prior mentioned expanded government and anti-business power, I doubt this rhetoric is genuine. 

I mean recall the rail strike, Congress is the lawmaking branch, Rubio who criticized the DoT and lack of regulations here: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senators-question-rail-oversight-after-toxic-ohio-derailment-2023-02-15/

Advocated a few months ago instead of utilizing Congress's ability to change and make laws to positively support rail workers, asked the Biden admin. to withdraw this bill and throw it back to the rail companies and rail unions to hash out another agreement. https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2022/11/rubio-congress-shouldn-t-vote-to-impose-agreement-on-rail-workers

Congress has the ability to force a agreement on the rail companies and rail unions along whatever lines they want, yes, there were Democrat and Republican lawmakers who preferred to let the rail dispute end, but if we really want to resolve this issue, Republican and Democrat lawmakers should come together and improve the regulatory environment, impose a new rail agreement that provides more benefits to rail workers. But only one party consistently skews anti-regulation, and has the House majority to boot. 

It would be nice tho if this gathered speed and urgency in Congress. but I am unhopeful. 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

a cheesy sludge that should be above asbestos as a human health risk

Quebec (home of Poutine) is also home to the recently closed last asbestos mine in Canada.  Coincidence?

Steve

[MSBoxer]

25 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It will never not make me laugh that the party that's now bitching about money spent in Ukraine...as opposed to Ohio...were the same party that gutted the regulations that would have done much to stop or mitigate the East Palestine disaster. 

The last major railroad deregulation was the Stagger Act in 1980 and was passed by a democratic senate, democratic house and signed by a democratic president.  Following that there have been minor administrative regulatory adjustments handled at the bureau level rather than the legislative level.

This is purely from a legislative angle, various adminsitrations can affect the effectiveness of regulations though funding for the appropriate department in order to increase or decrease the enforcement.

Edited February 20, 2023 by MSBoxer

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I look forward to Republican lawmakers proposing new safety regulations, extending more benefits to rail workers, and advocating greater government intervention in economic realms in the name of safety. 

Say both sides all you want, but on regulation, the consistent policy of the Republican Party forever has been less government regulations stifling economic competition, less unions, less oversight, so unless these calls for focus on Ohio include the prior mentioned expanded government and anti-business power, I doubt this rhetoric is genuine. 

I mean recall the rail strike, Congress is the lawmaking branch, Rubio who criticized the DoT and lack of regulations here: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senators-question-rail-oversight-after-toxic-ohio-derailment-2023-02-15/

Advocated a few months ago instead of utilizing Congress's ability to change and make laws to positively support rail workers, asked the Biden admin. to withdraw this bill and throw it back to the rail companies and rail unions to hash out another agreement. https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2022/11/rubio-congress-shouldn-t-vote-to-impose-agreement-on-rail-workers

Congress has the ability to force a agreement on the rail companies and rail unions along whatever lines they want, yes, there were Democrat and Republican lawmakers who preferred to let the rail dispute end, but if we really want to resolve this issue, Republican and Democrat lawmakers should come together and improve the regulatory environment, impose a new rail agreement that provides more benefits to rail workers. But only one party consistently skews anti-regulation, and has the House majority to boot. 

It would be nice tho if this gathered speed and urgency in Congress. but I am unhopeful. 

I've let a bunch of stuff like this through my "no unrelated politics" moderator's filters to underscore why I ask people not get us started down this path.  Hopefully the lesson has been learned (again) that it gets us off topic rather quickly.

So let's move on and get back to talking about the war and, as when deem it relevant, Poutine

Steve

[billbindc]

9 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

The last major railroad deregulation was the Stagger Act in 1980 and was passed by a democratic senate, democratic house and signed by a democratic president.  Following that there have been minor administrative regulatory adjustments handled at the bureau level rather than the legislative level.

This is purely from a legislative angle, various adminsitrations can affect the effectiveness of regulations though funding for the appropriate department in order to increase or decrease the enforcement.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2023/02/18/norfolk-southern-derailment-ohio-train-safety/

[danfrodo]

So,  getting back to the war.

Does anyone else have any reports of a major RU attacks yesterday N & S of bakhmut? 

Also, any news of RU troops massing elsewhere on the line?  I keep wondering if Putler has ordered NordWind offensive now that Wacht am Rhein has failed.

Today is Feb 20, two days to the anniversary.  I hope UKR has a surprise that will outdo whatever surprise Putler has on offer.  Maybe some long range missile strikes using missiles that weren't yet known to be in theater?  Didn't UK promise some longer range missiles?

[akd]

2 hours ago, LukeFF said:

Yep, and meanwhile, a small town in Ohio can't get the help it needs. 

And before anyone says it, NO, I don't think the invasion of Ukraine by Russia was in any way legitimate. I just don't agree with the way this is all gone, throwing billions upon billions so one corrupt former Soviet republic can fight another corrupt former Soviet republic. Or so that Zelesnky and his wife can go and do a photo shoot with Vogue Magazine.

It's a pretty ****ing sad state of affairs when our elected leaders are overly eager to send our taxpayer dollars overseas to fund yet another foreign war, but they can't be bothered with pressing issues at home (see also: East Palestine, Ohio).

This is extraordinarily dumb and not worthy of this thread.  Federal Aid was sent when requested by the Republican Ohio governor, not before because that is not how it works. We can do more than one thing at once.  Part of what it means to actually have America be a great nation in the world.

Don't be this guy:

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by akd

[Bulletpoint]

53 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Also, any news of RU troops massing elsewhere on the line?  I keep wondering if Putler has ordered NordWind offensive now that Wacht am Rhein has failed.

Today is Feb 20, two days to the anniversary.  I hope UKR has a surprise that will outdo whatever surprise Putler has on offer.  Maybe some long range missile strikes using missiles that weren't yet known to be in theater?  Didn't UK promise some longer range missiles?

I don't think there will be any big Russian offensive. They are already firing off everything they have. It's just wishful thinking for the Russians to dream of a new offensive on the anniversary of the invasion. And it's a useful story for Ukraine to repeat to drum up support for more weapons.

Russia might fire off another volley of missiles to mark Feb. 24, and Ukraine will shoot down nearly all of the missiles like they always do. Russia will then claim another big success. Nothing is really going to change in this war until the ground gets dry.

[keas66]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

And yet, EVERY SINGLE BILL in Congress, from the moment written, is available to every US Citizen (for that matter, anyone in the world unless some country blocks it), on Congress.gov, free to read, download, print, full text and summary, status, votes in committee and floor.

The fact that the general public has no idea is at least in part due to the general public making no effort at being informed. When presented with extreme claims of doom due to the potential passing of this or that bill by either party, or any news or social media post, the general public should go read the bill for themselves and find out. 

Dave

https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/top-rated-shows-2022-yellowstone-ncis-oscars-fbi-super-bowl-1235475629/

Seems like most of America is too busy watching NFL games

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't think there will be any big Russian offensive. They are already firing off everything they have. It's just wishful thinking for the Russians to dream of a new offensive on the anniversary of the invasion.

I agree with the wishful thinking, just like it was when the launched offensives in 2022.  The fact is that they were launched.

Several weeks ago I speculated that the offensive had already started and what we were seeing take place was not shaping efforts.  Since then all that we've seen has appeared to be "pressure" rather than offensive, but I'd bet from the Russian perspective it is an offensive.  The fact that it's not shaping up to be much of anything so far doesn't mean it isn't happening.

I think it's a pretty good bet that there will be some sort of missile/drone attack on the 23rd or 24th to coincide with the start of the war (depends on which day the Kremlin thinks of as Day 1).  Russia is all about building up myths based on dates, so I doubt they will do nothing.  I expect the frontline will see a lot more attacks in one or more places for the same reason.

All of that said, it is possible that Russia might attempt a general offensive on the 23rd or 24th.  If would be a massive mistake and likely ensure that Ukraine can pull off another Kharkiv offensive, which we've seen many times before in this war.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree with the wishful thinking, just like it was when the launched offensives in 2022.  The fact is that they were launched.

Several weeks ago I speculated that the offensive had already started and what we were seeing take place was not shaping efforts.  Since then all that we've seen has appeared to be "pressure" rather than offensive, but I'd bet from the Russian perspective it is an offensive.  The fact that it's not shaping up to be much of anything so far doesn't mean it isn't happening.

Well if they launch their "new offensive" and nobody notices it, it's a bit like that old philosophical problem about whether a tree that falls in the forest makes a sound if nobody is around to hear it...

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Well if they launch their "new offensive" and nobody notices it, it's a bit like that old philosophical problem about whether a tree that falls in the forest makes a sound if nobody is around to hear it...

Schrödinger's offensive

Russia is likely to claim a big victory in Bakhmut as 1-year anniversary of its invasion approaches, regardless of the reality on the ground, UK intel says (yahoo.com)

Edited February 20, 2023 by sburke

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Does anyone else have any reports of a major RU attacks yesterday N & S of bakhmut? 

Also, any news of RU troops massing elsewhere on the line? 

From ISW on the 19th (from its concise summary) 

• A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces crossed the Russian border into Kharkiv Oblast and occupied unspecified border settlements.[31]

• Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna.[32] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are strengthening frontline positions west and northwest of Kreminna.[33]
• Russian forces likely secured marginal gains in the northern suburbs of Bakhmut and in the eastern outskirts of the city.[34] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that degraded Wagner Group formations are narrowing the scope of their offensives in the Bakhmut area due to a lack of forces.[35]
• Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk city and around Vuhledar

[Grossman]

The Ukrainians have been "containing" this winter. Feeding men and resources to contain the Donbas front. One suspects they are allowing the Russians to expend, while they marshal resources for a push to the sea when the weather dries up in the early summer, when the campaigning season commences. It's just a question of the axis of the attack. The goal this year is to liberate Crimea. imo.

[Bulletpoint]

19 minutes ago, sburke said:

Schrödinger's offensive

Russia is likely to claim a big victory in Bakhmut as 1-year anniversary of its invasion approaches, regardless of the reality on the ground, UK intel says (yahoo.com)

 

With Schrödinger's cat, at least you can open the box and see for yourself if it's dead or alive.

Russia's offensive seems more like a certain parrot - even when it's obvious that it's dead, they will still insist that it's just pining for the fjords.

[danfrodo]

40 minutes ago, keas66 said:

https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/top-rated-shows-2022-yellowstone-ncis-oscars-fbi-super-bowl-1235475629/

Seems like most of America is too busy watching NFL games

This is a problem why?  What is your point?  That we watch sports and therefore are not able to focus the world because our brains are mush?  The super bowl was 3.5 hours and was a blessed break from the real world, hardly something that otherwise intelligent folks don't have time for on  a February sunday.  I had a nice party w lots of fried chicken, a long tradition dating back to prehistory at least 5 years.    

 

[danfrodo]

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

All of that said, it is possible that Russia might attempt a general offensive on the 23rd or 24th.  If would be a massive mistake and likely ensure that Ukraine can pull off another Kharkiv offensive, which we've seen many times before in this war.

from your keyboard to the War God's ear.  I'm hoping to see RU make a really costly attack that greatly weakens them. 

[sburke]

55 minutes ago, keas66 said:

https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/top-rated-shows-2022-yellowstone-ncis-oscars-fbi-super-bowl-1235475629/

Seems like most of America is too busy watching NFL games

blasphemy sir and may I remind you the EAGLES were in the superbowl and Elvis is likely still not over it.  You risk eternal banishment.. perhaps even to the Peng thread.  tread lightly.  

[Beleg85]

Reportedly today Ukrainian High Command met with US one:

 

[Fenris]

The map part gave me a chuckle

 

[Yet]

53 minutes ago, sburke said:

Schrödinger's offensive

Russia is likely to claim a big victory in Bakhmut as 1-year anniversary of its invasion approaches, regardless of the reality on the ground, UK intel says (yahoo.com)

that seems more likely than Steves expectation for something big failing to happen. At the date to celebrate, they dont want to start an offensive with unknown outcome. at that date theu want a sure celebration, or nothing. Remember that may 9th was very silent on the UAwar. 

 

[Beleg85]

11 minutes ago, Fenris said:

The map part gave me a chuckle

 

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Yet said:

that seems more likely than Steves expectation for something big failing to happen. At the date to celebrate, they dont want to start an offensive with unknown outcome. at that date theu want a sure celebration, or nothing. Remember that may 9th was very silent on the UAwar. 

 

Good point.  The other thing I was thinking about is why would Russia wait so long into the winter season to start the big offensive?  Surely even those boneheads remember last year when they started late and the weather got nasty.  Which is another indication that the offensive started weeks ago and went so badly it barely registered.  As I speculated back on February 7th:

Quote

What if Russia just did a Khafji at Vuhledar?  You know, an attack that the defender thought was a recon in force when it was, in fact, a main assault.  It would explain a few a few things we were wondering about earlier, wouldn't it?

I'm still thinking they will not do anything new that resembles a large scale offensive.  However, I also don't think they will stop attacking where they are already aggressive.  Especially Bahkmut and Kreminna.  Those attacks will likely be like Izyum and some of the battles around Donetsk city where they keep going despite no progress.

I still think one reason we've seen few missile/drone strikes recently is they have been putting some aside for a large strike for Feb 23/24.  Unlike a ground offensive such a thing is over quickly and Russia can easily lie about how effective it was.

Russia might also be thinking they need to do something like this if they are anticipating Ukraine might try something spectacular of their own.  Another base attack, a blitz of HIMARS strikes on logistics centers, etc. is going to make the news in Russia so they would be better to have something ready for PR reasons.

Steve

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia might also be thinking they need to do something like this if they are anticipating Ukraine might try something spectacular of their own.  Another base attack, a blitz of HIMARS strikes on logistics centers, etc. is going to make the news in Russia so they would be better to have something ready for PR reasons.

Knowing UKR, they'll probably do something for Feb 22-24 but have something bigger planned for a week or so later when RU's guard is done & thinks UKR already spent it's longer range weapons.