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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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9 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/german-defense-minister-says-ukraine-to-receive-fewer-leopard-tanks-than-promised

Seems the Leo2A6 battalion part failed. Leo2A4 battalion succeeded but that is only coming in April

 

Ha ha ha 🤣 this is just the beginning. I am sure that this is only the beginning, Ukraine will not even receive the promised half of the Leopard tanks. I had this thought when many were happy about the announcement of the delivery of these tanks to Ukraine, but it looked too smooth to be true. I can imagine what kind of soap opera awaits us after the announcement of the delivery of combat aircraft. Intricacies of intrigue and plot twists

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3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Lenin never showed any interest in philosophy. All his works concerned political economy. What ideas of Lenin do you like in this area? seizure of private property? food distribution? transferring power to the poorest sections of the population?

Outside of wanting democratic control of the workplace, I like that Lenin endorsed the right of self determination of the nations in the Russian sphere( which Putin has criticized him for more than once, particularly in regards to Ukraine). He opposed imperialist conflict and favored working class resistance to it from all countries(Putin also criticized him for this)

I particularly think 'Imperialism' has been a prescient work. 'State and Revolution" continues to be a great introduction to ML theory and continues to have cutting insights, and it's worthy of critique(many anarchists do).

Another poster mentioned that despite the revolution, the USSR as a state continued to have an elite dominating the rest? Well, Lenin made the observation that this is what states do, and why the ultimate goal was to get rid of them.

For folks like myself in the contemporary churn of leftwing discourse and infighting, works like What is To be Done and 'left wing communism: an infantile disorder ' continue to surprise me because we continue to have the same debates regarding reform versus revolution, etc.

And to just generally address a few things brought up, just real quick.

Past 'failures' should not prevent progressive projects from continuing to be pursued.  If you try to improve conditions and it doesn't work, we shouldn't settle for existing inadequacies right? If I am trying to be a good person and am imperfect, I do not simply give up on the endeavor and give in to my basest desires based on mistakes. Early attempts to overthrow feudalism had mixed results but no one wants to go back to lords and peasants. Capitalism was an improvement on that system, and leftists going back to Marx acknowledge that. 

As far as death counts I think it's ultimately a counterproductive and exhausting conversation because there is blood to go around, and much of it on one side is minimized, normalized and ignored, such as workers killed in labor struggles, the Bengal and Irish Potato famines, land enclosure, genocides against indigenous populations, etc. Additionally, it concerns me that many sources with anti left bias like to count German military casualties in WW2 in the same pile as other 'victims of communism'. I think Mark Twain had a quote that still very much applies to this discourse and I will leave it at that

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9 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/german-defense-minister-says-ukraine-to-receive-fewer-leopard-tanks-than-promised

Seems the Leo2A6 battalion part failed. Leo2A4 battalion succeeded but that is only coming in April

Absolute f--ing s--tshow.  This stage of the process should've happened 6 months ago.  Hopefully at least the IFVs & AFVs are still going to be arriving.  Bristling w ATGMs I hope.

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4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Absolute f--ing s--tshow.  This stage of the process should've happened 6 months ago.  Hopefully at least the IFVs & AFVs are still going to be arriving.  Bristling w ATGMs I hope.

I must say, well played Germany. Putting the Leopard screamers on the burner with a battalion of L2A6. Not saying this is good for Ukraine, bad leadership from Germany. Playing hardball and not even getting results...

I am sure there could have been way more L2A4s, especially with a looser timetable.

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4 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

I like that Lenin endorsed the right of self determination of the nations in the Russian sphere( which Putin has criticized him for more than once, particularly in regards to Ukraine). He opposed imperialist conflict and favored working class resistance to it from all countries(Putin also criticized him for this)

 

I can't believe I'm reading this... So, based on your words, Lenin did not give the order in 1919 to seize the Ukrainian People's Republic? Or Ukrainians did not have the right to create their own state.

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13 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

What I really would like to know is how good the West is in replacing material that's been sent to Ukraine and how much time does it take to produce a Leopard tank and other weapon systems. I expect the production rate will be stunningly slow, but I haven't got a clue.

 

11 hours ago, DesertFox said:

During the 80/90s production rate for Leo II was ca. 16 vehicles per month. The facilities are still there.

KMW still has the floor space for 16 but is currently building 2 new Leopard 2s per month with the capacity for 3. Beyond that would require a significant expansion of supply chains and work force that would probably take some time to complete.

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9 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

I can't believe I'm reading this... So, based on your words, Lenin did not give the order in 1919 to seize the Ukrainian People's Republic? Or Ukrainians did not have the right to create their own state.

I'm not in disagreement with you that he did the wrong thing. I won't defend his actions there.

That does not detract from my agreement with what he WROTE

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34 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Absolute f--ing s--tshow.  This stage of the process should've happened 6 months ago.  Hopefully at least the IFVs & AFVs are still going to be arriving.  Bristling w ATGMs I hope.

So what it comes down is the entirety of Europe is completely feckless, and Ukraine is getting Abrams, eventually. Never mind the people that will die because heads should have been removed from A$$s eleven months ago. 

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3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Euro-bashing Day!!!

No, I think he was bashing the US for its lack of action over the past 11 months? I mean: zero Abrams have been delivered, along with zero F-16s, and that - obviously - is the ONLY metric that matters. It's not like air defence systems save lives, right?

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3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Euro-bashing Day!!!

Maybe Abrams later, and more 155 now is better anyway, but to say the messaging on this has been abysmal is the understatement of the century. Or maybe it is a brilliant info op, and there will be three battalions of late model NATO something leading the big offensive.

 

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2 minutes ago, JonS said:

No, I think he was bashing the US for its lack of action over the past 11 months? I mean: zero Abrams have been delivered, along with zero F-16s, and that - obviously - is the ONLY metric that matters. It's not like air defence systems save lives, right?

I bash my Congressman about the Abrams, have been for ten months now...

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45 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

I'm not in disagreement with you that he did the wrong thing. I won't defend his actions there.

That does not detract from my agreement with what he WROTE

  Between the idea
  And the reality
  Between the motion
  And the act
  Falls the Shadow

Old T.S. knew a thing or two.

 

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26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

So what it comes down is the entirety of Europe is completely feckless, and Ukraine is getting Abrams, eventually. Never mind the people that will die because heads should have been removed from A$$s eleven months ago. 

If Ukraine will get Abrams "eventually", then I guess Ukraine will also get Leopards "eventually".

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Here you go: the Venn Diagram intersection of of the endless Abrams debate and the becoming endless AI Uber Alles debate:

New images have emerged of a U.S. Army M1 Abrams tank sporting an experimental artificial intelligence (AI)-driven target recognition system designed to speed up how fast threats can be spotted and engaged

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/m1-abrams-tank-tested-with-artificial-intelligence-targeting-system

Next someone will find how this overlaps with the (private) Capitalism vs (state) Capitalism debate. And evolution. And “balloons”. But eventually, back to Ukraine:

 

From today’s ISW:

Key Takeaways

  • US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin signaled on February 14 that the Ukraine Defense Contact Group’s 54 member states will continue to support Ukraine in the long run. The Washington Post reported that US officials have privately signaled to Ukraine that Western security aid to Ukraine is finite, however.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly recruiting convicts and mimicking the Wagner Group’s treatment of convicts as cannon fodder.
  • Russian forces continued offensive actions in the Kupyansk direction and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on February 14.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City on February 14.
  • Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast or in Kherson, Mykolaiv, or western Zaporizhia oblasts on February 14.
  • Russian ground forces on the Kola Peninsula in northwestern Russia have been reduced to one-fifth of their initial strength numbers before the invasion of Ukraine, supporting ISW’s longtime assessment that the Kremlin is not concerned about a NATO conventional military threat against Russia.
  • A Ukrainian and Tatar partisan group reportedly conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack on a car carrying two Russian military personnel and two Russian special service representatives in Nova Kakhovka on February 10.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may meet on February 17.
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Certainly, defense needs have not been prioritized post-cold war, and certainly after the conclusion of the multinational missions to AFG and Iraq, I doubt any European state was looking towards maintaining tanks. (except maybe Finland but obviously they want to keep them for good reasons)

More important is the IFVs, APCs, artillery for the immediate for Ukraine. 

Article detailing the wartime powers of the President. I don't think its a bad thing, certainly wartime requires walking over red tape and secrecy but still interesting to read. 

 

 

 

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43 minutes ago, JonS said:

Actions speak louder than words. Zero abrams = the entirety of the US is completely feckless. All of it. Every single person and organisation. Feck. Less.

Ok now I am confused.  Are we doing US or Euro bashing Day?  Or is this sarcastic old man Day?  Not that we cannot do them simultaneously.

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4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok now I am confused.  Are we doing US or Euro bashing Day?  Or is this sarcastic old man Day?  Not that we cannot do them simultaneously.

For me it was just general frustration day.  It flows from my deep, unabiding love for all things 'tank'.  

My frontal lobe knows that for next ~6 months that arty tubes & shells & rockets, IFVs, AFVs, AD, all matter much more than tanks.  But reptile brain just wants pretty tank things whacking things, ASAP.  

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55 minutes ago, JonS said:

Actions speak louder than words. Zero abrams = the entirety of the US is completely feckless. All of it. Every single person and organisation. Feck. Less.

I actually mostly agree with that statement, and not just because of Abrams. It took nine months to get serious about contracting increased production of a lot of things, and there is absolutely no excuse for it. 

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