How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

On the conduct of the war: I think that, as important as it may be for killing Russian soldiers, the continuing defense of Bakhmut may be as much about degrading their arty via effective counterbattery fire. We know that Russia can't get anywhere without lots of tubes chucking HE at targets their "assault waves" identify. We know that UKR CB is efficient and outside the reach of most of Russia's CB. We've seen that their losses in guns have recently started climbing, and there have been accounts of Russian assault barrages being shut down by counterfire in short order.

So is this another tendril of corrosive warfare? To keep attacking, RUS has to transfer guns from elsewhere in to replace their losses, and UKR knows where to find the assets they want to destroy, rather than having to send hunter-CB-killer groups of PzH2000 and HIMARS all along the line of contact. They probably have enough range-superior guns to cover their own preferred areas of activity, too.

[kraze]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

Well, there goes pretty much every book in 18th and 19th century literature in every tradition folks...

Nah, euro books from 18th and 19th centuries are nowhere near as spiteful as russian literature. 

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, womble said:

You're probably joking, and I may be about to commit heresy, but "Please, don't waste your time." The whole tottering cinematic edifice is a collection of convenient macguffins and Mary Sues meant to tell a vaguely-connected series of fun action stories. There is no actual consistency for you to analyse, and the characters make decisions that suit the story the author wants to tell at the time, whether or not there's any prior indication that it would be a good idea or otherwise.

I went to see Return of the Jedi when it came out.  Was all ready to go, dropped some acid and settled in.  Then when the fight started on Endor my buddy leaned over and whispered "sir, sir we are being attacked by muppets".  I had to leave the theater as I couldn't stop laughing.  That was the end of Star Wars for me.

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, womble said:

You're probably joking, and I may be about to commit heresy, but "Please, don't waste your time." The whole tottering cinematic edifice is a collection of convenient macguffins and Mary Sues meant to tell a vaguely-connected series of fun action stories. There is no actual consistency for you to analyse, and the characters make decisions that suit the story the author wants to tell at the time, whether or not there's any prior indication that it would be a good idea or otherwise.

I think you have just described Canadian strategic planning for the last 30 years...

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

Nah, euro books from 18th and 19th centuries are nowhere near as spiteful as russian literature. 

I've always thought that the worst thing that colonial empires do is to impose their own cultural malignancies on those they oppress. Something you may wish to consider. 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Probus]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder how they detonated it.

I bet when tension was released from the string, it armed the explosive. 

[TheVulture]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think you have just described Canadian strategic planning for the last 30 years...

Reminds me of a comment I read earlier today (from a Canadian): "US military planning is based around the idea of having a strong enough set of capabilities to handle any eventuality. Canadian military planning is based around the idea of having a token capability for any eventuality".

One thing the British military has done right (broadly speaking), I think, is understanding that in a major war it is fighting as part of NATO, and has focussed on providing a limited set of capabilities to augment NATO as a whole, rather than just trying to be a smaller scale copy of the US military, with less of everything.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Probus said:

I bet when tension was released from the string, it armed the explosive. 

Could be a time fuse as well.  Looks like they could have just used command detonation on a wire to.  Someone is going to figure off how to rig a stand off EFP weapon on one of these soon enough.

 

[Battlefront.com]

30 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

Current head of Bellingcat has fled to North America from Austria in response reportedly of Russian intelligence and Austrian turncoats hunting him.

Honestly, I'm surprised it took this long.  Bellingcat has been, without a doubt, one of the most powerful weapons against Russian disinformation, lies, and covert operations.  For me, I first learned of Bellingcat's brilliance back in 2014 when they very succinctly documented Russian forces openly operating in Ukraine.  Not to mention the MH-17 work that has proved so critical to The Hauge's case against Russia and individuals.

As for the Austrian intelligence agent, didn't they recently arrest someone for being a double agent?

Here's a 2018 article from BBC explaining why Austria seems to be a nexus of spy activities:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46228163

Steve

[Hapless]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

When I finally retire I am going to write a bit on the Strategy of the Empire in Star Wars - this is but one example of some pretty baffling decisions and inconsistencies. 

[Sekai]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

That got me thinking a bit, and I like to get a better perspective by having something I can compare it to.

Let's take Volkswagen in Wolfsburg. That factory churns out 3500 cars per day. Going by weight, it is about 40 cars per Leo2. That would be 900 tanks... ah, no. A bit too unrealistic.
Let's use value. A VW costs about 25k€ on average, a fully equipped Leo about 7m€. Both overpriced, so multiply and divide, you get to about 12 tanks - per day.

I agree, the military industry potential of the West is truly astounding. If just 5% of that capacity were focused on this effort, we could end this war in no time. The challenge then would be finding enough trained personnel in Ukraine to operate all the vehicles.

[NamEndedAllen]

7 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Anyway I think the problem is more in corporate culture (and blind profit maximization) and conflicts of interest, not necessarily 'capitalism'. 

Exactly so. Always has been and always will be, because this, and the other extreme you mentioned, too much “social care” represent the dynamic in societies between the eternals of human greed vs human group solidarity/allegiance (goes by many names). Unsurprisingly, this is never settled. We as individuals each embrace a position along the spectrum from absolute dominance of the individual all the way to absolute control by society, the state. Each nation has a “set point” that gets tugged in one direction or the other as the after effects of new policies push beyond it. Until enough steam is built up to either correct the tilt, or force a new set point. Some nations achieve a better perceived balance for a time than others. But nothing lasts forever, because…hunan nature. Dividing up the resources is an endless negotiation - among nations, it’s “trade”. Unless it becomes war. 
 

6 hours ago, Astrophel said:

Polemic arguments should focus on mitigation of the undesired outcomes via regulation for example, rather than broadcast sweeping and false judgement about the system as a whole.

Yes. And amen. To both your sentences.
Of course the problem is, In theory that’s how economic systems should work. In practice, there will always be the eternal impulse to be utterly free of being controlled, “regulated”, no matter who or what is doing the regulating. Even when it is ourselves! 

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, womble said:

The whole tottering cinematic edifice is a collection of convenient macguffins and Mary Sues meant to tell a vaguely-connected series of fun action stories. There is no actual consistency for you to analyse, and the characters make decisions that suit the story the author wants to tell at the time, whether or not there's any prior indication that it would be a good idea or otherwise.

As a diehard Star Wars fan (albeit one who has increasingly drifted back towards Star Trek over the years), I have to say...I pretty much agree.

That being said, I am curious if The_Capt meant Original Trilogy only or also Expanded Universe...I would be interested in his take on Grand Admiral Thrawn.

Edited February 15, 2023 by G.I. Joe

[NamEndedAllen]

12 hours ago, mosuri said:

Mendeleev? Pavlov? Sakharov? Tolstoy? Tarkovsky? Tchaikovsky? Whether Russia has pulled its full weight or not is another thing but there's certainly a bit more than zero cultural achievement stemming from there.

That was then. This is now. Russia’s genocidal invasion has focused the world’s attention to the singular question, “What have you done for us today?” Oh! Death, destruction, hate, poison, mass suffering, and crimes against humanity. Well, then…

[The_Capt]

16 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Mine will be much better.

[Lethaface]

LoL the tank saga continues just now:

Soon after post is a reply from our MoD saying it's incorrect. 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Lethaface

[Yet]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hell, there the Republicans renamed "French Fries" to "Freedom Fries" when the French opposed the 2003 invasion of Iraq.  Seriously:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_fries

Steve

The number one Russian high cultural gift to this world is Kalasjnikov. Seems not a bad idea to 'cancel' or 'ban'

Edited February 15, 2023 by Yet

[JonS]

3 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Much from Marx &  Engels and Lenin are still valid. Gramsci, Frankfurt school, Zizek, all have made good contributions to philosophy, sociology and political economy. Dialectical materialism is a useful framework. Anarchist contributions towards anti authoritarian and horizontal frameworks of living and organizing are valuable too, offering alternatives to systems and ethics based on exploitation, chauvinism and profit over all else. 

At a slightly more prosaic level, the communist era produced some gorgeous art, architecture, and movies.

[The_Capt]

22 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

As a diehard Star Wars fan (albeit one who has increasingly drifted back towards Star Trek over the years), I have to say...I pretty much agree.

That being said, I am curious if The_Capt meant Original Trilogy only or also Expanded Universe...I would be interested in his take on Grand Admiral Thrawn.

To do it right you have to do the whole thing - the movies were a hatchet job on the much bigger story in my opinion.  One cannot do a full treatment of the strategies at play in this Universe unless one takes into account the micro-social structures of its elites, cultural contexts etc, and that is the much bigger picture of the Expanded Universe, not Haydenson and Portman sharing absolutely zero chemistry for half a trilogy.

Thrawn is really pivotal to the entire discussion.  He embodies the failure of the Empire, and then the "back up plan" of the First Order - a genius for failure to learn.  His main schtick was to completely know his enemies, and then continually fails to link that to actual victory; think he might be a book on his own to be honest.  For a bit I actually wondered if he was not House of Carding the whole thing.  And of course you have the whole divided loyalties angle - which actually makes for a very good case that strategy must have context, it is a frame within frames.

I think Andor, Rouge One and Mandalorian are where they whole franchise needs to go (and arguably actually has its roots), a much more serious treatment of the human condition (and "aliens" of course).  Lucas was selling campy action with just a hint of serious undertones, but at its center the universe has more Dune than Buck Rogers in its DNA.

[JonS]

3 hours ago, Lethaface said:

The mask thing here was a bit different, for a long while our government persisted that they provided too little actual protection and only mandated to wear them in public transport. So when they changed the policy halfway in the pandemic, the outcome was predictable.

"When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do?"

"Why, I dig in and read nonsense from questionable sources, of course!"

[DesertFox]

27 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

LoL the tank saga continues just now:

Soon after post is a reply from our MoD saying it's incorrect. 

 

 

It is hard to believe anything regarding Leo II at the moment. Too much ego and hurt feelings. That needs to calm down a bit.

Reuters today:

Netherlands says still supports tank deliveries for Ukraine | Reuters

 

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think Andor, Rouge One and Mandalorian are where they whole franchise needs to go (and arguably actually has its roots), a much more serious treatment of the human condition (and "aliens" of course).  Lucas was selling campy action with just a hint of serious undertones, but at its center the universe has more Dune than Buck Rogers in its DNA.

Just skip it and go here - Alliance–Union universe - Wikipedia

And now back to our regularly scheduled thread.... Ukraine 2023.

More potential war crimes

New York Times shares video of missile attack on volunteers in Bakhmut (yahoo.com)

[Zeleban]

13 minutes ago, Yet said:

The number one Russian high cultural gift to this world is Kalasjnikov. Seems not a bad idea to 'cancel' or 'ban'

Rather, Hugo Schmeiser, it was not for nothing that he was forcibly taken to the USSR in 1946 (I think many will guess why). Fortunately, Ukraine is halfway to banning the Kalashnikov. More and more NATO weapons are in the hands of our fighters

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/german-defense-minister-says-ukraine-to-receive-fewer-leopard-tanks-than-promised

Seems the Leo2A6 battalion part failed. Leo2A4 battalion succeeded but that is only coming in April