How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

11 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Good to know. Any idea if this is care at civilian or military (NATO) facilities? Are hospitals in European capitols accepting the wounded through an extensive network of burden sharing? 

Both civilian and military. And yes, the wounded are distributed over many European countries. 

[Fernando]

The Spanish defense minister said yesterday that we have attending Ukrainian soldiers with terrible wounds and amputations. There is a large military Hospital (Hospital Central de la Defensa Gómez Ulla) in Madrid. No info about where the wounded are being attended, but I guess they are in the Gómez Ulla hospital. It has the most advanced medical technology, so is able to attend almost anything (including Ebola et al.).

Edit: There are 4 wounded in the Gómez Ulla, and 14 in the military hospital of Zaragoza.

Edited February 12, 2023 by Fernando

[cesmonkey]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2023/02/10/significantly-degraded-russian-force-is-adapting-after-losses/

https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/aktuelles/meldungen/nachgefragt-gespraeche-zum-ukrainekrieg

Thanks for that. I traced down the source of the quotes for the first article you linked to, a conversation with Dr. Celeste Wallander, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs:

 

[Letter from Prague]

So where did the tanks get stuck? I remember various media talking about Leopards and Challengers and Abrams a month ago. Where are they?

The voices of "the West is purposefully aiming to freeze to conflict by limiting support" are getting pretty loud again.

[cesmonkey]

The updates from the UK Ministry of Defense and ISW both share the view that Russia's current offensive potential is weak, and at best, the mobiks are being sent to the slaughter:|

 

 

[Artkin]

And also by the lack of leaves on trees.

[Huba]

Fun with mines. Sorry if it's a repost, but definitely worth seeing:

 

[Artkin]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

Fun with mines. Sorry if it's a repost, but definitely worth seeing:

 

WTF is this war? We have seen this utter insanity time and time again. 

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

So where did the tanks get stuck? I remember various media talking about Leopards and Challengers and Abrams a month ago. Where are they?

The voices of "the West is purposefully aiming to freeze to conflict by limiting support" are getting pretty loud again.

Do you really think we are being kept informed about everything the day it happens? Ukrainian tank crews are being trained for months now, tanks are being bought and prepared for months now. Some of them are probably already in Ukraine.

[Aragorn2002]

24 minutes ago, Huba said:

Fun with mines. Sorry if it's a repost, but definitely worth seeing:

 

Definitely. 

[Haiduk]

29 minutes ago, Artkin said:

WTF is this war? We have seen this utter insanity time and time again. 

Looks like the same story as I wrote yesterday - Russians cleared mines from the road, advanced some forward and were shelled with ammunition, contaning RAAM. They tried to bypass, but this led either to activate of RAAM or to blowing up by TM-62 aside the cleaned road. AT mines and arty plays important role in this war, unlikely for dynamic CM scenarions %)

Edited February 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[chuckdyke]

21 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Do you really think we are being kept informed about everything the day it happens? Ukrainian tank crews are being trained for months now, tanks are being bought and prepared for months now. Some of them are probably already in Ukraine.

Said yesterday this is the algorithm war. You get fed what you like to read. Russian TV plays what the viewers like to watch. Same applies for us. Must be a different reason they don't attack Russian positions in Russia.

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

So where did the tanks get stuck? I remember various media talking about Leopards and Challengers and Abrams a month ago. Where are they?

The voices of "the West is purposefully aiming to freeze to conflict by limiting support" are getting pretty loud again.

 

There is nothing surprising in this. Russian propaganda uses any hitch in Western countries to present it as a sign of an imminent cessation of aid to Ukraine. This has a huge effect both for the Russian public and for the Ukrainian and European public.

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Looks like the same story as I wrote yesterday - Russians cleared mines from the road, advanced some forward and were shelled with ammunition, contaning RAAM. They tried to bypass, but this led either to activate of RAAM or to blowing up by TM-62 aside the cleaned road. AT mines and arty plays important role in this war, unlikely for dynamic CM scenarions %)

RAAM or similar mining systems + snowfall that quickly conceals the mines sounds like an especially nasty combination... 

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Muscovites are slowlly trying to sorround the town through the fields West and East of it, but they are taking further heavy casualties.

 

They can't do that. I look at Tom Cooper map of this battle, but he is again wrong. This battle has more wide scala, than fighting for dachas SE from the town. 

Look first of all on satellite map from your post. Do you see except heavy bombed dachas the same heavy bombed pass in right edge of the map? This is maybe more important part of the battle, which Cooper didn't spot. 

 

Here is my rough map - other directin of Russian attack was north from Mykilske. They tried to seiz UKR strongpoints at mine #1 workshops and air-feeding shaft of mine #!. And fight for latter was also fierce. There was a video of dozens bodies near treeplant - this is from this place. UKR had also main strongpoint on Pivdenno-Donbaska (Southern-Donbasian) coal mine #1, which keeps road Vuhledar-Maryinka. In firsr two days Russians could came almost to the road in the mine area, but soon vere thrown back. So, until they breakthrough line of strongholds NE from Vuhledar, they can't bypass the town. 

Thus, minimal dimension of battlefield from Pavlivka to air-feed shaft is approx 10 x 5 km. This is about proper CM map sizes for even not large-scale modern operations. And this is I don't take into account possible Russian attempts west from the town on the line Prechystivka-Vuhledar. But its took place, though initially were unsuccessful for Russians

PS. Mashovets wrote today, that UKR artillery destroyed Russian ammo supply convoy near Vuhledar, destroying dozen trucks and several armored vehicles. Looking for photos/videos.

 

Edited February 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Artkin said:

WTF is this war? We have seen this utter insanity time and time again. 

Maybe it will be known as "The Great Idiotic War"

[Haiduk]

12 hours ago, dan/california said:

We could save the next round national/political/hitsorical recriminations for the heart of mud season in a month or so? There is an awfully lot of actual war to talk about right now.

These poor *%%*(*%#@  fools for instance. They have somehow gotten this far without noticing that they live in Mordor.

I suspect they will gets a lesson shortly...

You can find alot of such videos now. I will not post all, here for example the video, having ENG subs, were mobiks of 1231st regiment of Tatarstan Republic complain on own fate. They were attached to DPR army and "Donbasians" are grinding them in pointless assaults, so already two battalions were slained.

Since 1st Corps of DPR and 2nd Corps of LPR became in January officially a part of Russian Armed Forces, they have been receiving personnel replenishment from Russia, because probably mobilization resourse of Donbas already exhausted. But locals, particlarly DPR, consider Russian mobiks as "supplies", saving own fighters. So, there are many conflict situations on this background. Only several other, which became knowingly only on last week:

- Tuvian mobiks were beaten and threaten by weapon from the side of DPR unit command, where they were atatched. DPRs claims Tuvians just drink vodka, make a mess and reject to subordinate. Tuvians claim DPR fighter humilitated them and wanted to throw them to one-way atatck.

- Mobiks of 640th separate artillery battalion after  three months of training were moved to Donbas and attached to 1st DPR Corps. They awaited arriving of howitzes, but instead of this they were atatched to 9th "naval infantry regiment" like "assault infantry". Regiment just took away all their drones and command said now they will usual infantry

- 1479th mobik regiment of Irkutsk oblast - they complain thier unit was moved to Donbas and attached to DPR Corps. THey should to serve in the rear, but instead they now are sharing among DPR units like assault infantry. They say in their battalions many men over 45-50 years, with weak health (you can see that even 35+ from Russian deep outbacks look like 60 years oldmen) and a lack of proper training

- 

[The_MonkeyKing]

good info on Ground Launch Small Diameter Bomb
 

[Haiduk]

204th Territorial defense battalion of 241st TD brigade (Kyiv) in the battle for Bakhmut. Upper video - part 1, lower - part 2.

 

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Do you really think we are being kept informed about everything the day it happens? Ukrainian tank crews are being trained for months now, tanks are being bought and prepared for months now. Some of them are probably already in Ukraine.

Yeah, seems I can answer myself: training in Germany and should show up in Ukraine in March, according to Spiegel yesterday https://www.spiegel.de/politik/leopard-2-panzer-bundeswehr-beginnt-mit-ausbildung-ukrainischer-soldaten-a-f5611bc8-8956-48b9-9ca8-6c33c38f426f

[Haiduk]

UKR serviceman from Bakhmut area

We can keep against mathe...kers infantry of any quality and quantity, to slay them by dozens in close clashes. But when enemy barrel artillery, tanks and mortars 120/82 are disassembling unimpeded hour by hour our positions, feelings of powerlessness and anger make you crazy. It's can't be expressed by words. 

This is likely about losing of Krasna Hora village. Though other sources say the village was abandoned two days ago, Wagners just secured terrritory before claimed next success.

Edited February 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Indeed, battlefield area of Vuhledar doesn't limited by 10 x 5 km zone, as I wrote above. Arty and UAVs of both sides reach in more distant places

Volodymyrivka village + more 3 km East of the wide

 

[kevinkin]

Things are heating up; BBC cites friendly data:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64616099

The UK's MoD pointed out the recent increase (RA) could be due to "a range of factors, including lack of trained personnel, coordination, and resources across the front".

Ukraine "also continues to suffer a high attrition rate", the UK said.

[kevinkin]

A brief history from one Georgians POV:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/georgia/make-russia-pay

[The_MonkeyKing]

7 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Things are heating up; BBC cites friendly data:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64616099

The UK's MoD pointed out the recent increase (RA) could be due to "a range of factors, including lack of trained personnel, coordination, and resources across the front".

Ukraine "also continues to suffer a high attrition rate", the UK said.

 

Here is the first official overtime view of RUS personal casualties. (that I have seen)