How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

So if I disagree with your above post,  pointing out the obvious mistakes with links,  I'll be a Putin shill? 

I would like to respectfully suggest to either block him or ignore him.  You normally have much more interesting things to post instead of getting into this no-win discussion.

[chuckdyke]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

So if I disagree with your above post,  pointing out the obvious mistakes with links,  I'll be a Putin shill? 

Making statements which are not correct are not helpful for the Ukraine. Truth and facts are on their side. They lost one million soldiers during WW2 over four millions served now they are called Nazis and their contribution will fully ignored  by the Kremlin. It is time we ignore their participation too.

[dan/california]

I hope they searched Orban before they had Zelensky stand right in front of him for the picture.

[chuckdyke]

Yes conveniently forget 1956.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/09/ukraine-himars-rocket-artillery-russia/

Quote

Ukraine’s rocket campaign reliant on U.S. precision targeting, officials say

I think the entire board assumed this was case, but I am quite surprised anybody involved admitted it, even on background.

[Butschi]

9 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

It is time we ignore their participation too.

And that helps... how? Because, as you said yourself:

10 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Making statements which are not correct are not helpful for the Ukraine.

 

[chuckdyke]

10 minutes ago, Butschi said:

And that helps... how? Because, as you said yourself:

 

Till they acknowledge the contribution of everybody. They don't mention Lend & Lease thousands of kilometers of telephone cables, radios, trucks. Operation Bagration would be unthinkable without it. Russia at present is not a regime you can do business with. Tony Soprano looks like a choir boy in comparison.

Edited February 9, 2023 by chuckdyke

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

This article was written by a guy from Russia. The praise of their military equipment among the Russians is a national sport. A-10 is a much more advanced aircraft than the Su-25. The choice of weapons, sensors, ballistic computers for the first are much more developed. Smart weapons are the weak point of the Su-25. Without a smart weapon, he is forced to approach the target so that the pilot can see the target, increasing his chances of being shot down (the Su-25 does not even have a primitive electronic-optical zoom system). What can I say, the A-10 has been constantly upgraded with new electronics, while the Su-25 has existed in its original form since 1980.

But seriously a jet slower than a P51 mustang?  

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Till they acknowledge the contribution of everybody. They don't mention Lend & Lease thousands of kilometers of telephone cables, radios, trucks. Operation Bagration would be unthinkable without it. Russia at present is not a regime you can do business with. 

History book publishers will find the prospect of selling new books every time you can't do business with a regime quite refreshing, I sure.

[JonS]

13 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

But seriously a jet slower than a P51 mustang?

IKR? And the A-10 even has two engines to the P-51's single Merlin. Still not enough though.

Edited February 10, 2023 by JonS

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, Butschi said:

History book publishers will find the prospect of selling new books every time you can't do business with a regime quite refreshing, I sure.

Be careful what you buy. Go by the list of a tertiary academy can be useful. Sadly, they too are political and shouldn't be called universities. Customers can buy what you like and in democracies you have the right to be stupid. At times I make full use of that right. Aware of that.

[JonS]

Not the sharpest tool in our little shed.

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

If you want boom-boom at 100s of kms by the end of next week just jump over the line and send in ATACMS.

Please do! And soon. Tanks and jets are fine for the pipeline to the future of a NATO standardized military. But now? More artillery, munitions, communications, training, all the bit less sexy but vital fundamentals, today.  Ukraine has earned trust and whatever assurances are necessary should be done and accepted, and the upgrades delivered. The value in disruption of Russian planning and logistics alone will be worth a lot.

[Yskonyn]

54 minutes ago, JonS said:

IKR? And the A-10 even has two engines to the P-51's single Merlin. Still not enough though.

Pff, with the amount of Brrrrrt the Hog has we shouldn’t be concerned about speed.

And the amount of Brrrrrt the Hog has on display definitely makes a Mustang blush, so cut it out will you?

Going Brrrrt even makes the bird loose 10 knots or so. That’s freakin’ cool and NOT something to be ashamed off.

[Beleg85]

https://twitter.com/EdwardWeinert/status/1623856609083502593

Just a selection of several Russian channels about ongoing battle near Vuhledar. Fierce battle is raging there even tonight, from one other source it seems Ukrainan 72nd did some elastic defence and bend but did not break.

 

Zapiski Veterana: On Vuhledar direction a hell. Complete massacre. AFU bring large reinforcements that are counterattacking.

Romanov92: Dachas area [south of the town] are under heavy fires from UA artillery and tanks, holding in eastern part for now. Situation difficult. Very difficult.

Other guy (don't know the channel): 36 OSMBR is fighting in the area of dachas. They made some initiall breakthrough, there are effects. But the price is questionable. AFU moved reserves from other diections and is fiercely counterattacking, trying to close the gap. If they spend their forces during these moves and we still have forces to hold our gains, we are ok. But if they prepared counteroffensive on top of it while we spent our own on defence only, it is bad.

Some progress is theoretically noted in direction of Coal Mine 1 [east of Vuhledar]. Without liberating it [] we cannot think about taking the town. Task of capturing the mine with forces of 40, 155 bgds. and other units up to 14 February is unlikely. [ note it could be their deadline for ending shaping operations].

 

Edited February 10, 2023 by Beleg85

[Vet 0369]

On 2/8/2023 at 4:53 PM, Haiduk said:

Several days ago one soldier has written in twitter that soldiers have to demand from own battalion HQ to supply companies with 60 mm mortars. Because in dense infantry fights its turned out very useful and damgerous weapon. This post summoned many feedback from other soldiers, which were either agree with that or told that 60 mm is a good thing, but it's few skilled crews to use its properly - ther were many accidents of friendly fire with these mortars.

Ah, this observation brings back very fond memories in the USMCR of when I was the Section Leader of a 60mm mortar section that was attached to a Reinforced Rifle Platoon in the mid to late 1970s. Our mortar teems were so good that the gunners were capable of just jamming the ball on the bottom of the tube into the ground during a “hasty” fire, and then firing and adjusting the rounds by “Kentucky windage. “They were however highly-trained Marines.

We never understood why the Army looked down on “60s” with distain. They are perfect for rapid support of aggressive, fast-moving Infantry. Being embedded with the Rifle Platoon, although we were subordinate to the Company Weapons Platoon, the Rifle Platoon Commander could get permission to use os as a base of fire during an assault. That functionality is priceless to the “Grunts.”

[Da_General]

On 2/8/2023 at 4:53 PM, Haiduk said:

Several days ago one soldier has written in twitter that soldiers have to demand from own battalion HQ to supply companies with 60 mm mortars. Because in dense infantry fights its turned out very useful and damgerous weapon. 
 

Interestingly enough, Polish mech/motor infantry platoons come with their own 60mm mortar team. Definitely useful in an urban environment as mentioned but seem like they’d be a little too cumbersome in a more open or forested battlefield.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

If you use language which is the same as putin you support the man. It is up to Battlefront to ban me and they are welcome to do so.

Keep it up and that is exactly what will happen.  You are being absolutely unreasonably aggressive and belligerent.  The poster, at WORST, is ignorant of history and the reality of what the Russian Empire and then Soviet Union was.  To jump right from that to a Putin worshiping, hate spewing, disinformation source is way out of line.  Might as well call him a goose stepping neonazi while you're at it, you know to just round things out.

What you should have done was politely, even if firmly, correct the poster's misconceptions.  That would be helpful.  And if he debated your points, show him where he's wrong.  Learning from each other.  That's what this forum is here for, not bashing people about the head with over the top charges that are neither accurate nor deserved.

So, why don't you take a nice calming bubble bath and do some meditation.  Maybe some scented candles might help. Anything but continuing on as you have.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-9-2023

A Russian military court reportedly ruled that Russian commanders can legally refuse to release servicemembers from service at the end of their contracts. A Russian media outlet reported on February 8 that a Perm Oblast military garrison court ruled in favor of Russian commanders in a lawsuit filed by a serviceman who claimed that the commanders refused to release him from service when his contract ended in September 2022.[41] The court reportedly argued that the partial mobilization decree established an exhaustive list of grounds for release that did not include the expiration of a contract, and therefore, concluded that there were no grounds for recognizing the actions of the commanders as illegal.[42] ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin will not formally rescind the partial mobilization decree to legally justify the continued service of mobilized personnel indefinitely.

 

Quote

 ISW continues to assess that these schemes are likely part of a wider ethnic cleansing effort.

Putin is willing to grind his entire army to rotting hamburger to achieve his imperial dream, and if they don't have the sense to shoot him, i honestly think they deserve it.

ISW also does their usual excellent job of detailing the actual fighting, of which there is an approximately infinite amount. Putin obviously does NOT think time is on his side and is throwing his dice right now, all of them, indiscriminately. My two cents, worth what you paid, is that if Ukraine can mostly hold until the end of mud season, there will no shortage of places where real attack will simply vaporize whatever shellshocked mobiks haven't expired due to bad food, worse vodka, and general military incompetence.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

https://twitter.com/EdwardWeinert/status/1623856609083502593

Just a selection of several Russian channels about ongoing battle near Vuhledar. Fierce battle is raging there even tonight, from one other source it seems Ukrainan 72nd did some elastic defence and bend but did not break.

 

Zapiski Veterana: On Vuhledar direction a hell. Complete massacre. AFU bring large reinforcements that are counterattacking.

Romanov92: Dachas area [south of the town] are under heavy fires from UA artillery and tanks, holding in eastern part for now. Situation difficult. Very difficult.

Other guy (don't know the channel): 36 OSMBR is fighting in the area of dachas. They made some initiall breakthrough, there are effects. But the price is questionable. AFU moved reserves from other diections and is fiercely counterattacking, trying to close the gap. If they spend their forces during these moves and we still have forces to hold our gains, we are ok. But if they prepared counteroffensive on top of it while we spent our own on defence only, it is bad.

Some progress is theoretically noted in direction of Coal Mine 1 [east of Vuhledar]. Without liberating it [] we cannot think about taking the town. Task of capturing the mine with forces of 40, 155 bgds. and other units up to 14 February is unlikely. [ note it could be their deadline for ending shaping operations].

 

Several weeks ago I expressed surprise that Ukraine hadn't picked someplace else along the huge front to hammer and make Russia draw resources away from Bakhmut.  I am in no position to second guess why Ukraine didn't do this as it worked so well for Kherson.  But now, maybe this is an opportunity to finally give Russia some reason to lose focus? 

If Ukraine really is counter attacking in Vuhledar this could finally give Russia something to worry about.  I don't think Russia has much in the immediate area to plug any gaps blown open in their lines.  It wouldn't take much in the way of Ukrainian advances, even a few hundred KMs, to become problematic.

Steve

[dan/california]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Several weeks ago I expressed surprise that Ukraine hadn't picked someplace else along the huge front to hammer and make Russia draw resources away from Bakhmut.  I am in no position to second guess why Ukraine didn't do this as it worked so well for Kherson.  But now, maybe this is an opportunity to finally give Russia some reason to lose focus? 

If Ukraine really is counter attacking in Vuhledar this could finally give Russia something to worry about.  I don't think Russia has much in the immediate area to plug any gaps blown open in their lines.  It wouldn't take much in the way of Ukrainian advances, even a few hundred KMs, to become problematic.

Steve

I have said this before, but the AFU general staff are cold eyed B$%&&*$%s with a plan. if they think they need to wait until some precondition is met, they will wait. Even when price payed every day is excruciating. When they do take their next swing at the Russians, i am expecting it will not be a love tap. Blowing through what is left if the Russians at Vuhledar and driving all the way to Sea of Azov, would work just fine...

 

If they could make it half way, about 45-50 kilometers,  they would be in 52 caliber 155 range of Mariupol. That make the Russian supply situation land bridge a LOT worse.

Edited February 10, 2023 by dan/california

[chrisl]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am kinda here on this one too.  There is a post war argument to build up the Ukrainian Air Force, and frankly the introduction of a new fleet of aircraft is on that sort of timeline anyway.  If you want boom-boom at 100s of kms by the end of next week just jump over the line and send in ATACMS.  I am not sure if manned fighter/bomber aircraft are going to survive this war as a concept to be honest (and people are wringing hands about tanks).  Unless someone can break the Air Denial paradigm and actually achieve air superiority, which fighter they have may be a moot point.

I don't think the fighter/bomber is any deader than the tank (and probably less), but it's subject to the same kind of conditions as the future of tanks.  The biggest is that it depends on asymmetry of technology and doctrine.  The jets and aerodynamics are pretty mature all around, but attack aircraft are part of a system, just like tanks are part of a system.  NATO/US don't just send fancy fighter/bombers off on their own - there are a ton of support systems, starting with the satellite ISR, then GlobalHawlks, and the various B707 based radar and command systems. E-3 for airborne monitoring and traffic control, the E-8 JSTARS to monitor things on the ground, EA-18s for SEAD, and so on.  They're all part of an interconnected system that makes it possible to reach out and touch someone with as little risk as possible to the guys driving them around.  Just like you can't just load up a bunch of M1 tanks on trains and ship them into Ukraine and expect them to be effective, you can't just drop off a bunch of F-35s (or F-15s, F-16s, or FA-18s, Typhoons, etc) without all the stuff that helps them do the things they do.  But if you have that whole set of toys and the doctrine to suppress the defenses around a volume of space, you can then use that space to deliver very high precision pain.

Edited February 10, 2023 by chrisl

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I don't think the fighter/bomber is any deader than the tank (and probably less), but it's subject to the same kind of conditions as the future of tanks.  The biggest is that it depends on asymmetry of technology and doctrine.  The jets and aerodynamics are pretty mature all around, but attack aircraft are part of a system, just like tanks are part of a system.  NATO/US don't just send fancy fighter/bombers off on their own - there are a ton of support systems, starting with the satellite ISR, then GlobalHawlks, and the various B707 based radar and command systems. E-3 for airborne monitoring and traffic control, the E-8 JSTARS to monitor things on the ground, EA-18s for SEAD, and so on.  They're all part of an interconnected system that makes it possible to reach out and touch someone with as little risk as possible to the guys driving them around.  Just like you can't just load up a bunch of M1 tanks on trains and ship them into Ukraine and expect them to be effective, you can't just drop off a bunch of F-35s (or F-15s, F-16s, or FA-18s, Typhoons, etc) without all the stuff that helps them do the things they do.  But if you have that whole set of toys and the doctrine to suppress the defenses around a volume of space, you can then use that space to deliver very high precision pain.

It will be a major effort to get the Ukrainians most of the way to high functioning armor units by late spring. We REALLY should have started the training six months ago. It is year or more out for them to go to war with a whole new air force. And that is if they can lean on NATO assets for a lot of the ISR. There are only two things that can wreck the Russian rail system all the way past Belgorod, Rostov on Don, and the Kerch Bridge. Those would be ATACMS, and the United States Air Force. I don't want the The_Capt's blood pressure to get so disturbed he starts whacking me on the knuckles. So why don't we start with a slightly less aggressive target set than the one I just mentioned for the ATACMS, and see if the Russians finally get the point. And those missiles could be ripping out of HIMARS launchers in a week, probably less. 

[sburke]

Ukraine American Football league had some reps at NFL honors and a nice presentation.  Any question about popularity in US for Ukraine?  Didn't think so.  

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Several weeks ago I expressed surprise that Ukraine hadn't picked someplace else along the huge front to hammer and make Russia draw resources away from Bakhmut.  I am in no position to second guess why Ukraine didn't do this as it worked so well for Kherson.  But now, maybe this is an opportunity to finally give Russia some reason to lose focus? 

If Ukraine really is counter attacking in Vuhledar this could finally give Russia something to worry about.  I don't think Russia has much in the immediate area to plug any gaps blown open in their lines.  It wouldn't take much in the way of Ukrainian advances, even a few hundred KMs, to become problematic.

Steve

A breakout of a few hundred km from Vuhledar and they'd be out wading in the Sea of Azov!  It's only 100 km from Vuhledar to Mariupol and a complete cutting of the famous land bridge.  It will be interesting to see what Russia's response is and whether the UA has dialed in targeting of routes that would get RU forces from Bakhmut to Vuhledar.