How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

And congrats to Kevin for breaking the 2000 barrier.  Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy

Steve

[Beleg85]

From several days we note increased movement of heavy loads on Rzeszów airport- and that is not only one in the region.

Just from yesterday FlightRadar data:

- 4 B747 from the USA - 1 German A330 from Germany - 1 unmarked aircraft from Hungary - 2 American C-5 USA from Germany - 1 B767 from Italy - 1 Dornier 328 from Germany - 1 Ukrainian AN-124-100 from Turkey - 1 Canadian C-130 from France

More than C-5 Galaxy landed in last 5-7 days, locals complain they cannot sleep but are enchanted by presence of these beasts and their bellies. Of couse we will not talk about where their load is going next, but something tells me there awful lot of big, sweet and fat goodies there for our neighbours.

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

This is the tail end of a nearly endless thread of Lancet videos. They seem to be one of the more effective things in the entire Russian arsenal. 

Yup, the most cuious thing is that proven defence against them seems to be relatively simple- reinforced net around every vehicle. But that would probably took a lot of extra effort on part of the crews in putting them up and down every time.

Edited February 3, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And congrats to Kevin for breaking the 2000 barrier.  Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy

Steve

Think it depends on setting, because on mine you did it.  Typical, upper management comes in just in time to cut the ribbon....

[MSBoxer]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Think it depends on setting, because on mine you did it.  Typical, upper management comes in just in time to cut the ribbon....

Yep, Steve grabbed the goodies for himself. I think the only way to make this right is a game update for Kevin.  Posted publicly of course

 

[chrisl]

13 hours ago, dan/california said:

The power move would be to sed something up to grab it intact. That vehicle may or may not exist.

We used to do it all the time for film capsules on parachutes, but it was with big old C-130s and C-141s, and helicopters for smaller payloads with higher precision landings.  I don't know that we ever had anything that could do it at 60K feet, particularly for that big a load.  The balloon envelope is a mess of drag and fouling opportunity at an altitude where it's hard to get lift off wings already anyway.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Good news is 150km range GLSDB bad news is in nine months 

[Artkin]

8 hours ago, Kraft said:

It also shows how overpowered CM direct fire control is, in a PBEM, you would just tell the tank to shoot right on the foxholes even if he cant see, because you can through the spotting drone.

Irl it seems he couldnt even get a warning to the tank for >2minutes, let alone direct its fire.

I do NOT allow direct firing for vehicles in my games anymore unless they have previously seen the contact. For the tournament games sure but not my personal games. Its way too easily abused. 

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, chrisl said:

You just described Cheesecake Factory.

Yah but that's intentional,  it's their business model. 

This is a product of circumstances to a large degree,  both military (need stuff now) and political (who's running this Tijuana girl and pony show? Oh yes, all of us - simultaneously ).  It's symptomatic of the diplomatic messiness that has flourished in the absence of unified EU leadership. 

[Twisk]

What are this groups thoughts?

Right now the Russians are attacking in the East along 3 directions.

DIrection 1: Russian Army pushing AFU back from Kreminna. I've not seen much information about this but this is a setback for UA who were closing in on the city over the previous weeks. I haven't seen much info come out of this direction.

Direction 2: Where all the news is coming out of. Wagner is gaining ground through massed light infantry assault waves supported by artillery. Bakhmut itself seems to be holding but the UAF forces N. in the Soledar direction are still unable to contain Wagner. Wagner has apparently pushed fully past Soledar and are in the river valley having crossed it at at least one location.

Does this mean that Wagner is fixing at Bakhmut and pushing around the Soledar area or is the UAF forces around Soledar less prepared, is the terrain better suited?

Direction 3: Vuhledar has apparently been the scene of heavy fighting. We have seen UAV video of destroyed RU BMP Company from this direction. Not sure how trustworthy Tom Cooper is but he claims major Russian losses and this is at least backed up by the UAV video. Its been quite some time since seeing such a concentration of destroyed vehicles and infantry (Failed fording attempt is the last).

So in summary Russians are succeeding in gaining ground in Direction 1 and Direction 2 but have suffered heavy losses in Direction 3 without gains. D1 looks to be going well and the UAF has been thrownback some distance. I'm unsure as to why and what the fighting looks like here. This might be the only direction where the Russians are having repeatable success? D2 Wagner is gaining ground at high human cost and is grinding forward. The UAF is ceding ground past Soledar but I wander how long Wagner can maintain this as its been continuing for many weeks now. This is not a sustainable way of fighting the war. D3 Russian major attacks are apparent outright failures with high losses and no gain. Armored/APC attacks over open ground that were stopped and destroyed by precision fire. Looks poorly on RUAF forces here. What makes them different than Direction 1?


Edit: I thought it was interesting that Russia is making these attacks with a hybrid force. Wagner doesn't seem to be just mindlessly slamming into UAF but the RAF is using this grinding to make attacks on the flanks.

Edited February 3, 2023 by Twisk
removing run on paragraph that was more clutter than help

[JonS]

7 minutes ago, Twisk said:

Direction 1. Why is the UAF thrownback here? Economy of force, poor local leadership/units, poor high command decisions?

Don't forget that the enemy gets a vote.

[Twisk]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

Don't forget that the enemy gets a vote.

Ah yes i was not clear in writing and should have added my edit to that directly.

this was the edit: D1 is unknown to me. Is that force more elite? More VDV or using Russian nationalist support (drone fires, drones) better? Is the terrain better for the forces RUAF can generate?

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, Twisk said:

What are this groups thoughts?

Right now the Russians are attacking in the East along 3 directions.

DIrection 1: Russian Army pushing AFU back from Kreminna. I've not seen much information about this but this is a setback for UA who were closing in on the city over the previous weeks. I haven't seen much info come out of this direction.

Direction 2: Where all the news is coming out of. Wagner is gaining ground through massed light infantry assault waves supported by artillery. Bakhmut itself seems to be holding but the UAF forces N. in the Soledar direction are still unable to contain Wagner. Wagner has apparently pushed fully past Soledar and are in the river valley having crossed it at at least one location.

Does this mean that Wagner is fixing at Bakhmut and pushing around the Soledar area or is the UAF forces around Soledar less prepared, is the terrain better suited?

Direction 3: Vuhledar has apparently been the scene of heavy fighting. We have seen UAV video of destroyed RU BMP Company from this direction. Not sure how trustworthy Tom Cooper is but he claims major Russian losses and this is at least backed up by the UAV video. Its been quite some time since seeing such a concentration of destroyed vehicles and infantry (Failed fording attempt is the last).

So in summary Russians are succeeding in gaining ground in Direction 1 and Direction 2 but have suffered heavy losses in Direction 3 without gains. D1 looks to be going well and the UAF has been thrownback some distance. I'm unsure as to why and what the fighting looks like here. This might be the only direction where the Russians are having repeatable success? D2 Wagner is gaining ground at high human cost and is grinding forward. The UAF is ceding ground past Soledar but I wander how long Wagner can maintain this as its been continuing for many weeks now. This is not a sustainable way of fighting the war. D3 Russian major attacks are apparent outright failures with high losses and no gain. Armored/APC attacks over open ground that were stopped and destroyed by precision fire. Looks poorly on RUAF forces here. What makes them different than Direction 1?

Russians are actively attacking on 3 unique directions across 150km of front (not frontage). While they have limited success only 1 of the 3 directions represent a sustainable fight. UAF is failing to hold the Russians in 2 of these 3 directions but I am really only worried about UAF results in Direction 1. Why is the UAF thrownback here? Economy of force, poor local leadership/units, poor high command decisions?


Edit: I thought it was interesting that Russia is making these attacks with a hybrid force. Wagner doesn't seem to be just mindlessly slamming into UAF but the RAF is using this grinding to make attacks on the flanks.

And again I am interested in what is happening in Direction 1. D2 seems to be more standard RUAF army types (army, naval infantry). Is D1 is unknown to me. Is that force more elite? More VDV or using Russian nationalist support (drone fires, drones) better? Is the terrain better for the forces RUAF can generate?

Excellent post, Twisk.  I guess you are asking the million dollar questions:  Is UKR doing a holding/attrition operation w an economy of force because they are build up/training/setting stage for something big later?  Or is UKR less powerful than many of us think?  Is UKR worried about these attacks or are they pleased to see RU using up troops and (probably more importantly) artillery to gain nothing significant, weakening RU for later?  I am starting to come around to the likelihood that we won't know until the ground dries, maybe as late as May/June?

Why do we see so many videos of UKR troops in D1 & D2 counterattacking via civilian pickup trucks?  Is this part of economy of force?   Occasionally we see support by an M113 or bmp/brdm but why don't we see better UKR gear?  

[Zeleban]

23 minutes ago, Twisk said:

What are this groups thoughts?

Right now the Russians are attacking in the East along 3 directions.

DIrection 1: Russian Army pushing AFU back from Kreminna. I've not seen much information about this but this is a setback for UA who were closing in on the city over the previous weeks. I haven't seen much info come out of this direction.

Direction 2: Where all the news is coming out of. Wagner is gaining ground through massed light infantry assault waves supported by artillery. Bakhmut itself seems to be holding but the UAF forces N. in the Soledar direction are still unable to contain Wagner. Wagner has apparently pushed fully past Soledar and are in the river valley having crossed it at at least one location.

Does this mean that Wagner is fixing at Bakhmut and pushing around the Soledar area or is the UAF forces around Soledar less prepared, is the terrain better suited?

Direction 3: Vuhledar has apparently been the scene of heavy fighting. We have seen UAV video of destroyed RU BMP Company from this direction. Not sure how trustworthy Tom Cooper is but he claims major Russian losses and this is at least backed up by the UAV video. Its been quite some time since seeing such a concentration of destroyed vehicles and infantry (Failed fording attempt is the last).

So in summary Russians are succeeding in gaining ground in Direction 1 and Direction 2 but have suffered heavy losses in Direction 3 without gains. D1 looks to be going well and the UAF has been thrownback some distance. I'm unsure as to why and what the fighting looks like here. This might be the only direction where the Russians are having repeatable success? D2 Wagner is gaining ground at high human cost and is grinding forward. The UAF is ceding ground past Soledar but I wander how long Wagner can maintain this as its been continuing for many weeks now. This is not a sustainable way of fighting the war. D3 Russian major attacks are apparent outright failures with high losses and no gain. Armored/APC attacks over open ground that were stopped and destroyed by precision fire. Looks poorly on RUAF forces here. What makes them different than Direction 1?

Russians are actively attacking on 3 unique directions across 150km of front (not frontage). While they have limited success only 1 of the 3 directions represent a sustainable fight. UAF is failing to hold the Russians in 2 of these 3 directions but I am really only worried about UAF results in Direction 1. Why is the UAF thrownback here? Economy of force, poor local leadership/units, poor high command decisions?


Edit: I thought it was interesting that Russia is making these attacks with a hybrid force. Wagner doesn't seem to be just mindlessly slamming into UAF but the RAF is using this grinding to make attacks on the flanks.

And again I am interested in what is happening in Direction 1. D2 seems to be more standard RUAF army types (army, naval infantry). Is D1 is unknown to me. Is that force more elite? More VDV or using Russian nationalist support (drone fires, drones) better? Is the terrain better for the forces RUAF can generate?

The key difference between PMC Wagner and the Russian Armed Forces is that they are not subordinate to incompetent and ineffective army headquarters. They hire the most competent officers and plan their own operations on their own. The armed forces of Ukraine have learned to resist the regular troops of Russia, but the flexible tactics of PMC Wagner turned out to be a surprise for them, which led to territorial losses in the Bakhmut area. Some time will pass and Ukrainians will learn to counter Wagner's tactics.

[Zeleban]

 

Heavily shell-shocked Russian soldier surrenders

[Zeleban]

 

[Zeleban]

 

Another attempt by Russians to attack our positions under the guise of Ukrainian military

[JonS]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/03/the-ukraine-repair-shop-where-russian-tanks-go-to-change-sides?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So a big, fat, highly visible and extremely slow moving balloon is a terrible platform for strategic ISR.  With the satellite threat it is not like one can leave your “sensitive sites” uncovered anyway.  And the reaction time to something flying at the speed of a good Cessna at the strategic level is in days, so if you need to reposition something well you can break for coffee.

But it will get everyone excited and maybe isn’t a bad way to poke NORAD. Beyond that, well there is the entertainment value.

Honestly, not debating USA response - just passing on the reporting and the military responses here. I get your opinion that the new generations of surveillance balloons are basically a stunt or something of little value.  China though is investing in them and deploying them regularly. Down here the response has been quite…enthusiastic. Perhaps you see it as training exercises, rather than actual security discomfort. Interestingly, the USA Secretary of State just canceled/postponed his visit to China citing the intrusion. And F-22s were added to the intercept/monitoring deployments. The Chinese platform is controllable, and its path has tracked across a number of sensitive sites. 

“NBC News also reported that F-22 Raptors from Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, along with at least one E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) radar plane were sent to the area as deliberations were ongoing about whether or not to try to bring it down. Nellis is not home to any combat-coded units equipped with the F-22, suggesting those aircraft may have been diverted from the ongoing Red Flag 23-1 exercise being run from that base. The War Zone reached out to the Pentagon for more information, but was told no additional details could be provided at this time.” https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/chinas-spy-balloon-over-montana-is-part-of-a-larger-more-troubling-pattern

[The_Capt]

53 minutes ago, Twisk said:

D1 looks to be going well and the UAF has been thrownback some distance.

Can you quantify this?  ISW seems to think it is about 1000m

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-2-2023

Russian forces intensified ground attacks in the Kreminna area on February 2. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Ploshchanka (16km northwest of Kreminna), Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna), Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna), and Kuzmyne (3km southwest of Kreminna) in Luhansk Oblast.[25] This is notably a higher number of reported repelled attacks than is typical in the Kreminna area. A Russian milblogger claimed on February 2 that unspecified Russian airborne elements with the support of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division and its 59th Tank Regiment (20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) pushed Ukrainian forces back by one kilometer near Kreminna.

 This "D" also looks more like a meatgrinder.

The ISW report for 2 Feb is good, looks like the RA is being pushed into "one last push" to secure the Donbas by March, which may suggest why the UA is holding back.  Unless they decide to launch a spoiling attack somewhere else. 

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Honestly, not debating USA response - just passing on the reporting and the military responses here. I get your opinion that the new generations of surveillance balloons are basically a stunt or something of little value.  China though is investing in them and deploying them regularly. Down here the response has been quite…enthusiastic. Perhaps you see it as training exercises, rather than actual security discomfort. Interestingly, the USA Secretary of State just canceled/postponed his visit to China citing the intrusion. And F-22s were added to the intercept/monitoring deployments. The Chinese platform is controllable, and its path has tracked across a number of sensitive sites. 

“NBC News also reported that F-22 Raptors from Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, along with at least one E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) radar plane were sent to the area as deliberations were ongoing about whether or not to try to bring it down. Nellis is not home to any combat-coded units equipped with the F-22, suggesting those aircraft may have been diverted from the ongoing Red Flag 23-1 exercise being run from that base. The War Zone reached out to the Pentagon for more information, but was told no additional details could be provided at this time.” https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/chinas-spy-balloon-over-montana-is-part-of-a-larger-more-troubling-pattern

Whole thing has a Dr Strangelove feel to it.  If it was a Chinese ISR asset then this is a major blunder on their part.  If shot down, and US-Canada have every right to do that, we are talking captured equipment, attribution and a whole host of diplomatic bum-pain.  Compared to the WW3 brinksmanship going on in Eastern Europe this is actually kinda cute and a pleasant distraction.  Now if there are any weapons on the balloon, this is going to get pulling-a-gun-in-a-bar-trivia-contest unfunny really quick.

[Twisk]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Can you quantify this?  ISW seems to think it is about 1000m

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-2-2023

Russian forces intensified ground attacks in the Kreminna area on February 2. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Ploshchanka (16km northwest of Kreminna), Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna), Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna), and Kuzmyne (3km southwest of Kreminna) in Luhansk Oblast.[25] This is notably a higher number of reported repelled attacks than is typical in the Kreminna area. A Russian milblogger claimed on February 2 that unspecified Russian airborne elements with the support of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division and its 59th Tank Regiment (20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) pushed Ukrainian forces back by one kilometer near Kreminna.

 This "D" also looks more like a meatgrinder.

The ISW report for 2 Feb is good, looks like the RA is being pushed into "one last push" to secure the Donbas by March, which may suggest why the UA is holding back.  Unless they decide to launch a spoiling attack somewhere else. 

This may be my mistake. I recall seeing that UAF had entered the edge of Kreminna early in January and from those positions to today they would have been pushed back between 5 to 8km. I'm looking around now and I cannot find evidence of this so I think this is my mistake and I apologize for not double checking.

[billbindc]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Whole thing has a Dr Strangelove feel to it.  If it was a Chinese ISR asset then this is a major blunder on their part.  If shot down, and US-Canada have every right to do that, we are talking captured equipment, attribution and a whole host of diplomatic bum-pain.  Compared to the WW3 brinksmanship going on in Eastern Europe this is actually kinda cute and a pleasant distraction.  Now if there are any weapons on the balloon, this is going to get pulling-a-gun-in-a-bar-trivia-contest unfunny really quick.

The good news about the Chinese balloon is that it is unlikely Xi wanted this to happen. 

The bad news about the Chinese balloon is that it is unlikely Xi wanted this to happen. 

He clearly wants to ease things with the US which is why he was willing to break protocol and meet as head of state to the US secretary of state and why China immediately apologized in a public manner. That tells us that there's a control or planning problem with the PLA...who right now contain elements that are not at all happy with a rapprochement. I'm betting the former.

 

.

[sross112]

1 hour ago, Twisk said:

So in summary Russians are succeeding in gaining ground in Direction 1 and Direction 2 but have suffered heavy losses in Direction 3 without gains. D1 looks to be going well and the UAF has been thrownback some distance. I'm unsure as to why and what the fighting looks like here. This might be the only direction where the Russians are having repeatable success? D2 Wagner is gaining ground at high human cost and is grinding forward. The UAF is ceding ground past Soledar but I wander how long Wagner can maintain this as its been continuing for many weeks now. This is not a sustainable way of fighting the war. D3 Russian major attacks are apparent outright failures with high losses and no gain. Armored/APC attacks over open ground that were stopped and destroyed by precision fire. Looks poorly on RUAF forces here. What makes them different than Direction 1?

I'd say the RA has two things going for it in the D1 area vs the D3 area. The first is they have concentrated a lot of troops and equipment in that area countering the UA gains so their force density is probably higher. The second, and in my opinion the most influential, is the terrain is the opposite of the flat open plains with little cover found in the D3 direction. This makes UA ISR more difficult and also allows the RA to jump off offensive operations much closer to contact. I think the D1 direction will be very difficult for either side to attack in because of these factors. 

The UA had good success in the northern areas because the terrain suited their fog eating snow tactics much better than the open south. I think that is why the success was faster than their Kherson operation. But terrain is one of those factors that cuts both ways a lot of the time. 

The RA managed to hammer down this area last year with significant forces and a ton of arty support, so it isn't impossible that they will be able to do it again. If they have increased their infantry substantially on the northern front with their trained up conscripts from Belarus they would possibly have a good chance. I would expect it to cost them heavily for any gains they do get and will be surprised if they are able to hold them long term if they do the same as before and shatter their forces while taking the ground and leaving nothing left to hold it.

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Twisk said:

This may be my mistake. I recall seeing that UAF had entered the edge of Kreminna early in January and from those positions to today they would have been pushed back between 5 to 8km. I'm looking around now and I cannot find evidence of this so I think this is my mistake and I apologize for not double checking.

Ah, well from Jan you might be correct.  I think ISW might be talking in the shorter term.  5-8 kms in a month or so actually sounds about right for the pace the RA has been setting.

[Erwin]

The thinking behind what reaction to make feels right out of a Le Carre "Looking Glass" story. 

Shooting the balloon down and finding weapons could be akin to a declaration of war by China.  How do we react then?  It could be a Chinese provocation since the west is not yet ready for war with China.  Alternatively, if we show restraint then maybe we can get away with sending something over Chinese airspace (or what China claims is its massively increased airspace in S. China Sea).  Chinese action against one of our own recon assets would be a Chinese provocation.  

The real mystery is shy was it spotted by civilians on a commercial flight?  Did our own radar not detect it?  Or, do we simply not want to reveal to China the abilities of our detection systems?

As with western info/propaganda about Ukraine it's all "Alice and through the looking glass..."  We probably will never know what realpolitik game is being played.