How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

 

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

wow, we are getting close to page 2000, guess who will be the first?

 

Mommy? Whydoeseverybodyhaveabomb?

****

I think I predicted Norks showing up in Russian service back on page 300 or so. One of the best income earners for the Kim dynasty for decades has been to supply loggers and miners to Siberian enterprises, the dirty, cold and hazardous work formerly done by Gulag zeks.

[Kraft]

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

CM tank situational awarness was usually much better than this Russian crew...

It also shows how overpowered CM direct fire control is, in a PBEM, you would just tell the tank to shoot right on the foxholes even if he cant see, because you can through the spotting drone.

Irl it seems he couldnt even get a warning to the tank for >2minutes, let alone direct its fire.

[_Morpheus_]

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

On 4/19/2022 at 8:44 AM, The_MonkeyKing said:

Could Leo1 become the main "lend-lease" tank to Ukraine? There are tons and tons of them available in the west. There must be uniformity in the heavy weapons supplied to Ukraine or it will be a logistical circus out there. So my view is M113 and Leo1 should become the main weapons of the Ukrainian military..

Main question here is how does the Ukraine T-64 APFSDS ammo compare to best Leo1 APFSDS ammo available? According to my quick amateur research 3BM42 is the main Ukraine APFSDS ammo at the moment. Penetration similar to best 105mm ammo available. But these both will still struggle with Russian modern armor frontally. Still clearly "good enough".

So the tank is clearly good enough, there are lot of them and their logistics available to the west, they are "bad" enough to hand over without losing wests own capabilities.

 

Seems like my Leo1 + M113 timeline is coming true. Thankfully these will be supplemented with Bradley/CV90/marder1 and Leo2/Chal2/Abrams.

Edited February 3, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[Pete Wenman]

Interesting article from Tom Cooper, who seems to be making sense again, suggesting that the "big" Russian offensive is underway, just not as perhaps expected.

and worth flagging for this quote if nothing else

Quote

Foremost: nowadays it’s not Putin who’s micromanaging this ‘game’ with help of his idiotic orders, but Gerasimov. He might be so deeply corrupt that the bosses of Mexican drug cartels are blushing in jealousy whenever his name is mentioned, and he might do well with some cosmetic surgery, but: he’s a smart strategist and working as hard as an ugly stripper.

 

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-3-february-2023-56183abaab20

 

[DesertFox]

44 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Seems like my Leo1 + M113 timeline is coming true. Thankfully these will be supplemented with Bradley/CV90/marder1 and Leo2/Chal2/Abrams.

Looks like it is about time for Battlefront to transplant the CM:SF2 NATO and UK stuff into CM:BS.

[LongLeftFlank]

44 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:

Gerasimov. He might be so deeply corrupt that the bosses of Mexican drug cartels are blushing in jealousy whenever his name is mentioned, and he might do well with some cosmetic surgery, but: he’s a smart strategist and working as hard as an ugly stripper. 

Gen. Zaluzhny noted to TIME that he keeps Gerasimov's staff college works on strategy in his office.

[kevinkin]

13 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Oh dear a highly visible piece of 19th century technology!  Wait while we slowly hide our sensitive stuff under the obvious hi tech counter…the tarp.

Occam would reduce the problem to a massive delivery of General Tso's chicken and egg drop soup. They always arrive cold anyway. Good advertising angle however: Get high on Hunan.

[Zeleban]

 

[FancyCat]

Just cause a dude is corrupt does not mean he's a idiot or not a soldier or not unable to make command decisions.

[Rokko]

17 hours ago, akd said:

Some possible insight into "Wagnerian" tactics:

 

This all reads like Russia used its penal colony population as a kind of one-shot weapon to bludgeon its way through a fewer layers of defense around Bakhmut and to cause attrition to the Ukrainian defenders, with any exchange ratio of casualties being favorable to them, given that they're happy to be rid of them, anyways. Ultimately a successful measure from their perspective but short lived. Now even the dumbest prisoners have apparently wised up and the contracts of the remaining survivors are bound to expire. I wouldn't expect Wagner to honor these contracts at all, but even the threat of gruesome execution can probably motivate for so long without any other incentives for the cannon fodder, second class types.

[Zeleban]

Information for conspiracy lovers from Russian propaganda

[billbindc]

12 hours ago, dan/california said:

billindc, are you an "anonymous American official"? 

No.

[Kinophile]

Man, the West support has gotten a bit incoherent. What a dogs breakfast of different platforms and logistics trains. I'm sure the UKR MoD are like "Well, thanks... But Uhh can we just stick to maybe 4 platforms...?"

It's like a burger restaurant ordering beef and potatoes - and yes, getting some burgers and and few potatoes but also perfectly prepared sushi, a plate of spaghetti bolognese, 120 fresh made baguettes,  two gallons of lobster bisk,  17 cans of Red Sea caviar, a truck tire, eight packs of pork chops,  some yogurts, half a cake of tiramisu, some left over pizza and three-wheeled van emblazoned with Trotter Independent Traders. 

I mean,  wtf. 

Edited February 3, 2023 by Kinophile

[cesmonkey]

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Seems like my Leo1 + M113 timeline is coming true. Thankfully these will be supplemented with Bradley/CV90/marder1 and Leo2/Chal2/Abrams.

We might as well send them the old M60 and Challenger 1 tanks, too.

[Kinophile]

Just ref corruption in Ukraine,  its good to see movement. Pushing the civilian sector to better honesty and transparency directly aids the War effort. 

 

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

I was curious because F-35s were scrambled. Turns out the Chinese are doing this a lot. Here, Hawaii, and elsewhere. Also, this:

“It is worth noting that the U.S. military is actively testing how it might use similar high-altitude balloons, with the ability to navigate long distances to areas of interest and hold station against prevailing winds, to perform various tasks. This includes intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, but also a range of other potential mission sets like communications relaying and long-range strike, as you can read more about here. “

Companies in the United States and elsewhere have also been developing similar systems for commercial purposes, too.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/chinas-spy-balloon-over-montana-is-part-of-a-larger-more-troubling-pattern

AND FOR THOSE IN CANADA:

‘UPDATE: 

We cannot confirm these details at this time, but there may be another aerial intrusion underway in Canada, which is partners with the USAF in NORAD. Washington Post's Andrew deGrandpré also mentions highly strategic Guam as being a past target area for similar balloons, which is unsurprising. 

Master aircraft tracking sleuth, Steffan Watkins, also has an interesting thread that may point to Canadian CF-18s having intercepted and tracked this balloon days ago.

Well considering that these things move at about 120 kph (max) based on wind speed, I am not sure “scramble” is the correct term.

I know that people have been looking at high altitude balloons for operational ISR and GPS replacement systems.  Their ability to stay up (persistence) and remain at high altitude and stand off from an AO starts to make sense.  I am sure someone will even try and stick a weapon platform on one of these one day but you get into payload limits etc.

As a strategic penetration ISR platform they are just silly in my opinion.  I am sure people are going to try them out, maybe China is in this case; however, the fact we picked up the vehicle and could “scramble” is just a very visible demonstration of my point.  A LEO satellite moves as 17000 miles per hour and can be the size of a shoebox.  Very High altitude unmanned systems can be built for stealth and speed, or long endurance.  Very High altitude manned systems can also be built for stealth and speed, and carry weapons with human agency onboard -  see Top Gun 2 (aside: weirdly the plane Tom Cruise flew in the first half hour is the more likely one to be used on the dramatic end mission).  Cyber exploitation cannot be ‘seen’ at all and has to be detected by other means.

So a big, fat, highly visible and extremely slow moving balloon is a terrible platform for strategic ISR.  With the satellite threat it is not like one can leave your “sensitive sites” uncovered anyway.  And the reaction time to something flying at the speed of a good Cessna at the strategic level is in days, so if you need to reposition something well you can break for coffee.

But it will get everyone excited and maybe isn’t a bad way to poke NORAD. Beyond that, well there is the entertainment value.

Edited February 3, 2023 by The_Capt

[Harmon Rabb]

Jake Broe giving his take on the way the war has impacted Russia's economy.

Edited February 3, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Man, the West support has gotten a bit incoherent. What a dogs breakfast of different platforms and logistics trains. I'm sure the UKR MoD are like "Well, thanks... But Uhh can we just stick to maybe 4 platforms...?"

It's like a burger restaurant ordering beef and potatoes - and yes, getting some burgers and and few potatoes but also perfectly prepared sushi, a plate of spaghetti bolognese, 120 fresh made baguettes,  two gallons of lobster bisk,  17 cans of Red Sea caviar, a truck tire, eight packs of pork chops,  some yogurts, half a cake of tiramisu, some left over pizza and three-wheeled van emblazoned with Trotter Independent Traders. 

I mean,  wtf. 

You just described Cheesecake Factory.

[dan/california]

This is the tail end of a nearly endless thread of Lancet videos. They seem to be one of the more effective things in the entire Russian arsenal. 

 

Steve if you want to get an announcement about the new game on page 2000 that would now. Wishful thinking, I know but...

Edited February 3, 2023 by dan/california

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

We might as well send them the old M60 and Challenger 1 tanks, too.

I'm in favor of a 'Full send':
Load up all military vehicles gathering dust and or rust anywhere in the Western hemisphere and throw them out of the back of a C-17 right above Russian positions in Ukraine. Load m up with some gas and ammo for good measure. 

Edited February 3, 2023 by Lethaface

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Man, the West support has gotten a bit incoherent. What a dogs breakfast of different platforms and logistics trains. I'm sure the UKR MoD are like "Well, thanks... But Uhh can we just stick to maybe 4 platforms...?"

It's like a burger restaurant ordering beef and potatoes - and yes, getting some burgers and and few potatoes but also perfectly prepared sushi, a plate of spaghetti bolognese, 120 fresh made baguettes,  two gallons of lobster bisk,  17 cans of Red Sea caviar, a truck tire, eight packs of pork chops,  some yogurts, half a cake of tiramisu, some left over pizza and three-wheeled van emblazoned with Trotter Independent Traders. 

I mean,  wtf. 

Only that in this case the burger restaurant didn't order beef and potatoes but everything that's on offer, quite a few things that aren't and screw you if the delivery doesn't happen yesterday.

[billbindc]

15 hours ago, billbindc said:

That's not politically incorrect, it's pure unadulterated anti-Semitism. 

 "Der Antisemitismus ist der Sozialismus der dummen Kerle"

Ferdinand Kronawetter

[kevinkin]

Another rung up the ladder:

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2023/02/03/us-to-send-ukraine-longer-range-bombs-in-latest-turnaround/

Reznikov said at a meeting with EU officials. “Ukraine is ready to provide any guarantees that your weapons will not be involved in attacks on the Russian territory. We have enough targets in the occupied areas of Ukraine, and we’re prepared to coordinate on (these) targets with our partners.”

On Tuesday, the Ukrainian defense minister was asked if Biden’s ‘’no” to F-16s was the final word.“All types of help first passed through the ‘no’ stage,” Reznikov said. “Which only means ‘no’ at today’s given moment. The second stage is, ‘Let’s talk and study technical possibilities.’ The third stage is, ‘Let’s get your personnel trained.’ And the fourth stage is the transfer (of equipment).”

I guess the third stage is like a parboil. But let's hope Reznikov is not taking this all for granted. 

The SDB I has a circular error probable (CEP) of 16–26 ft (5–8 m).  If supplied to Ukraine in 2023, this would mark the weapon's first export and use in combat. The weapon is launched from ground-based missile systems such as the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System and M142 HIMARS (Wiki).

 

 

Edited February 3, 2023 by kevinkin