How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[panzermartin]

9 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Perhaps your father did not witness the famine organized by his government, when a person could fall and die of exhaustion right on the street, and parents who went crazy from hunger eat their own children. My great grandmother knew people who engaged in cannibalism in 1932-1933. I think if your father had witnessed this, then the executions organized by the Nazis would not be remembered so well by him.

No he couldn't, he was in Athens in 1941. But this was equally awful enough to shape a collective memory and hate for generations of ukrainians.

[Lethaface]

6 hours ago, Seminole said:

Last year, the Russian Federation significantly increased the import of microchips, exceeding the pre-war level.

This was reported by Forbes with reference to Elina Rybakova, an economist with the Institute of International Finance, according to Ukrinform.

"Russia significantly increased the import of microchips in 2022 - the figures exceeded the pre-war level. The value of microchip imports increased from $1.8 billion for January - September 2021 to $2.45 billion for the same period last year," the report says.

China in 2022 isn't North Korea or Iraq.

Who gets hurt the most if we throw up trade barriers with China? 

Who actually has the leverage?

 

China need chips producing machines from either ASML or Minolta/Kodak (I forgot which one, at least it's a Japanese company). ASML doesn't sell their latest tech machines (EUV) to China, but does so for the previous tech. Recently there was a meeting between US and NL, it is reasonably assumed that USA wants to hinder/block the supply/maintenance on those machines to China as well. The outcome isn't fully clear AFAIK, although I haven't followed it very closely. Point in case is that Japan supplies these to China as well, so while ASML obviously would like to continue it's business with China I guess the NL position is that it's pointless to have only ASML stop supplying China if it can get it from Japan/somewhere else. This is a multi-Billion per year business, so interests are high and any outcome comes with geopolitical consequences affecting national strategy.

The current war could well have it's effects on this business in the long run, especially if China is found to be too much catering to Russia.

Edit: the economies of the World are so interwoven that I don't think you can speak of 'who has the leverage'. Everyone has some leverage (some more than others but things are continuous in motion), where it's not always clear how things are interconnected or what even would be the result of certain events. Economy is not an exact science.

Edited February 2, 2023 by Lethaface

[Grossman]

Yahoo News

 

Washington is preparing to send missiles to Ukraine which could strike almost the entire Russian-occupied region of the country, US officials have said.

Two officials said the weapons announcement would be made this week in a new $2 billion package of military aid, according to Reuters.

It would be the first time Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), a new weapon designed by Boeing, were sent.

 

The cheap gliding missiles have a range of more than 93 miles due to fold-out wings which extend their range, a dramatic increase over the 50 miles range of the Himars rocket systems which changed the face of the war when Washington sent them last summer.

It would mean every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine, apart from most of the Crimean peninsula, would be in range of Ukrainian forces, likely forcing Moscow to redistribute ammunition and fuel storage sites.

The small, GPS-guided bombs, which are reportedly capable of hitting targets as small as 3ft-wide, are fitted onto abundantly available rockets that can be fired from Himars, M270 launchers and aircraft.

Mykhilo Podolyak, the Ukrainian Presidential aide, said talks on the supply of the longer range missiles and attack aircraft were under way.

“Each war stage requires certain weapons. Amassing [Russia’s] reserves in the occupied territories requires specifics from [Ukraine] and partners,” Mr Podolyak wrote on Twitter.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said supplying the longer-range rockets “would not change the course of events” but would “escalate tensions,” a response often used by Moscow to stoke fears of nuclear escalation.

The GLSDB combines the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb with the M26 rocket motor, both of which are common in American inventories.

US stocks 'getting low'

Tom Karako, a weapons and security expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said buying missiles such as the GLSDB direct from industry, rather than from existing weapon stocks, was “about getting quantity at a cheap cost”.

Mr Karako said concerns over depleting US stockpiles are behind an ongoing production rush as current stocks are “getting low relative to the levels we like to keep on hand”.

A Western official said on Tuesday “what any armed forces needs is increased depth, increased accuracy and lethality and anything which contributes to that will be useful to [Ukraine]”.

The official dismissed Russian claims to have destroyed a lot of Ukraine’s artillery as “misinformation” adding Moscow’s narrative of claiming to have destroyed much more of Kyiv’s military capability than was actually the case was “a feature of this campaign”.

[akd]

Some possible insight into "Wagnerian" tactics:

 

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, akd said:

Some possible insight into "Wagnerian" tactics:

 

That is straight up attritional warfare of the old school.  Echeloned human waves - sometimes supported, other time not is a straight up “we will trade 30 of ours for 1 of yours”.  Discipline is also extremely old school as well, basically you are shot if you don’t succeed, and this includes getting wounded.  They only thing missing is to put suicide explosive belts on these guys and you have Fedayeen, but insert Russian nationalism for Islamic extremism.

The major problem with this approach is that it is a road to nowhere.  Unless you have held back a breakout force that can exploit a breakthrough, you can crack the line but never exploit it.  It does not sound like there is effective integration between Wagner and the RA so how do they expect to actually exploit a breakthrough?

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is straight up attritional warfare of the old school.  Echeloned human waves - sometimes supported, other time not is a straight up “we will trade 30 of ours for 1 of yours”.  Discipline is also extremely old school as well, basically you are shot if you don’t succeed, and this includes getting wounded.  They only thing missing is to put suicide explosive belts on these guys and you have Fedayeen, but insert Russian nationalism for Islamic extremism.

The major problem with this approach is that it is a road to nowhere.  Unless you have held back a breakout force that can exploit a breakthrough, you can crack the line but never exploit it.  It does not sound like there is effective integration between Wagner and the RA so how do they expect to actually exploit a breakthrough?

And towards the end the Russian source straight up admitted that they had run through the supply of prisoners who were suitable for this form of supposedly productive suicide. The new plan is to torture mobiks who wanted to fight the least into doing it Wagner's way. Keep in mind they haven't taken Bakmuht yet with this plan. 

Edit: Back of the envelope that the Russians would have to expend several hundred thousand KIA just to get good and stuck in FRONT of Kramatorsk, never mind what it would take to get past it.

Edited February 2, 2023 by dan/california

[Kraft]

I found this on TG so no idea how accurate.

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I found this on TG so no idea how accurate.

A very good graph for keeping things in perspective.

[Zeleban]

Rare footage of the battle for Mykolaiv airport in March 2022

[Billy Ringo]

3 hours ago, womble said:

Xi is not stupid. Taiwan is not worth the cost unless that sort of foreign adventurism is the only thing that they think will save their Chinese Communist Party behinds because everything else has gone to Hell in a handbasket. It's far more useful to him as a tub to thump to maintain the spectre of the threat from outside.

I didn't think Putin was stupid either. But here we are...

[billbindc]

Just now, Billy Ringo said:

I didn't think Putin was stupid either. But here we are...

True. But Putin showed that there was no proof of concept on how to swallow up a neighbor. Add in that 100km of strait to cross militarily and logistically, the immediate intervention of the USN and allies, a potentially constrained energy conduit, the economic/trade effects, etc and XI has quite a bit to think about and he's not isolated from reality (I think) in the way that Putin has become.

Clearly, nations make enormous strategic blunders but rarely does one repeat it after another has just shown the way.

[FancyCat]

Thread of a reporter for the AFP from Bakhmut. 

 

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/30/boris-johnson-putin-nato-ukraine/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/01/ukraine-avoid-long-war-rand-talks-argument/

 

Washington Post is both siding like it means it. It does seem the Russians have finally figured out how filter money into the think tank morass to get their side put out with Manafort type gloss over.

[billbindc]

15 minutes ago, billbindc said:

True. But Putin showed that there was no proof of concept on how to swallow up a neighbor. Add in that 100km of strait to cross militarily and logistically, the immediate intervention of the USN and allies, a potentially constrained energy conduit, the economic/trade effects, etc and XI has quite a bit to think about and he's not isolated from reality (I think) in the way that Putin has become.

Clearly, nations make enormous strategic blunders but rarely does one repeat it after another has just shown the way.

Then again....

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/suspected-chinese-spy-balloon-found-northern-us-rcna68879

 

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Then again....

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/suspected-chinese-spy-balloon-found-northern-us-rcna68879

 

Oh dear a highly visible piece of 19th century technology!  Wait while we slowly hide our sensitive stuff under the obvious hi tech counter…the tarp.

[Simcoe]

3 hours ago, akd said:

Some possible insight into "Wagnerian" tactics:

 

Interesting read. From the sources I’ve seen. The convicts are sent out by day to spot for artillery, either by finding a hard point or taking fire. 
 

At night, the real Wagner troops come out with top end gear, thermal goggles etc. they infiltrate past known positions and ambush reinforcements or storm the hardpoint.

The professionals aren’t taking very high casualties. They are only going in when enemy positions are completely mapped out.

[Beleg85]

Video from Russian side (sorry for Zoka, but this is very close encounter worth to watch). Russian tank passess near UA trenches, directed by drone operator. Katsap commander (not very wisely) informs his by radio that Ukrainians only have rifles...until somehow at 0:36 he sees rpg, shouting to tank crew to stop but machine is still going forward. Ukrainian soldier shots at muscovite armour from behind, but unfortunatelly missess/granate fail to explode properly/is not effective. Tank does not even seem to be bothered, clips stops.

CM tank situational awarness was usually much better than this Russian crew...

 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

In lighter news Solovyev supposedly gets a call from Steven Seagal on his show, after complaining about mean Anton Gerashchenko for translating his nonsense for an English speaking audience .

Edited February 2, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Bil Hardenberger]

47 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh dear a highly visible piece of 19th century technology!  Wait while we slowly hide our sensitive stuff under the obvious hi tech counter…the tarp.

I like how the Pentagon has decided not to shoot it down...   and determined it has "limited intelligence value".  Too funny.

CNN Story

[billbindc]

 

The twitter NatSec balloon guys are having their Telenko moment: 

[panzermartin]

42 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Video from Russian side (sorry for Zoka, but this is very close encounter worth to watch). Russian tank passess near UA trenches, directed by drone operator. Katsap commander (not very wisely) informs his by radio that Ukrainians only have rifles...until somehow at 0:36 he sees rpg, shouting to tank crew to stop but machine is still going forward. Ukrainian soldier shots at muscovite armour from behind, but unfortunatelly missess/granate fail to explode properly/is not effective. Tank does not even seem to be bothered, clips stops.

CM tank situational awarness was usually much better than this Russian crew...

 

What a crazy war. Imagine this kind of footage from WW2 battles. We haven't grasp how erratic to the extreme everything could be. 

(And politely wishing for more uncertainty and randomness and a touch of analogueness in the inevitable digitalness of modern CM titles) 

[BornGinger]

On 2/1/2023 at 9:09 PM, Haiduk said:

Do you know, that many Russian top officials and oligarhas are Jews and many of them have Israeli citizenship ? Abramovich. Rottenberg. Vekselberg. Closest persons to Putin. Or for example Zhirinovskiy. List can be continued. Ukraine has strong Jewish community led by mighty oligarch Kolomoiskiy, many our businesman and politics also Jews and have Israeli citizenship... By the way, several leaders of our pro-Russian "Opposition bloc" also were Jews and had Israel citizenship (for example, Rabinovich) and before the war have fled to Israel.  

The old jewish bolsheviks that stole from the Russian and Ukrainian people when the Soviet Union collapsed. Many of the ones among those with ukrainian citizenship don't seem to bother much about the war.

But to mention this isn't politically correct enough for some on this forum.

[Fenris]

Frontline comedy (if this is inappropriate I apologise)

 

[chuckdyke]

Some mothers do have them.

 

[sburke]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Oh dear a highly visible piece of 19th century technology!  Wait while we slowly hide our sensitive stuff under the obvious hi tech counter…the tarp.

once again you miss that ultimate weapon.. the parking garage!  Even Deep throat knew they were the best places for secrets 50 years ago.