How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, JonS said:

That's only true if you believe the only counter to a tank is another tank, and/or the Russians are dumb enough to try and play your game.

Oh, wait. We already agreed: Russia sux. Carry on.

I agree, the gulf war was an entirely different situation for a number of reasons. But to be fair @The_MonkeyKing said in terms of tank to tank battles.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Butschi

[Haiduk]

20 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Article in The Daily Beast documenting Wagner "falling apart".  Russian NGO estimates the personnel of Wagner in the Soledar area absorbed about 50,000 fighters total, with about 40,000 being convicts.  Estimated 10,000 remain operational, the rest being dead, wounded, captured, or deserted.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-wagner-group-edges-into-complete-collapse-in-ukraine?ref=home

Steve

On Russian LostArmor forum discussed about number in 65 000 given by some westrn medias, but most of memebers wrote that on Donbas now involved no more 20 000-25 000 of Wagner troops. They assume real number in 40-45 000 is more reliable. Some say 65 000 is with all rear and civil structures and services, including two IT-companies working for Wagner military purposes.

As I told convicts were directed not only to Wagner, but also to LDPR troops, so obviously it will be mistake to count all number of enlisted convicts to Wagner.

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

This all gets back to having some kind of cohesive approach to getting UKR the tools it needs to push RU off its land and 'end' this mess w/o RU profiting.   Whether its abrams or leo2s, all the parties should be discussing what makes the most sense and then throwing everything into that effort

Absolutely. This piecemeal, throw whatever you have at the war made perfect sense during or right after the defeat of the Russian attack on Kyiv, or thereabouts. No way at that time to have a desirable ultimate shape for a future AFU. But once most of the Western Allies recognized they were committed to supporting Ukraine with a LOT more than harsh words, I’d have expected a team of the uber planners known to one another via NATO structure, admin, coordination to have soon thereafter start sketching out flow charts leading to a fully modernized air, land, and sea AFU in line with NATO standards. And in the process, the bonus of what that should indeed look like for a large European nation facing the long imagined Russian (Soviet) invasion.

Instead, from our peanut gallery observing perch, the arming of Ukraine still looks like a meandering tippy toe path. Instead of a rationalized transition away from the highly inefficient logistical patchwork that was initially unavoidable. Right now, it looks like arguing whether to gift an iPhone or an Android phone. Instead of looking at the house blueprints and designing a retrofit for making it a fully “smart home” capable dwelling. Wired, wireless, security, audio, video, bandwidth, tech support contract, etc.  

PS I realize I am somewhat overstating this at least with regard to the USA enormous aid packages that are indeed put together with a lot of thought for the immediate and cohesive set of needs. But it isn’t integrated with the other European Allies, nor appearing to be part of a long term plan culminating in near plug and play NATO integration. And I have to believe that eventually Ukraine will need NATO membership in peacetime - however cold or hot that “peace” ends up being. Ukraine cannot simply hope that events in Russia will sometime soon fall into place “just so” there isn’t an ongoing threat. And neither can we.

Edited January 24, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Lethaface]

Some ex-general here has commented that UKR might be planning to use the Western MBTs as a mobile reserve to deal with any potential new Russian offensives. Not sure if that makes sense, he sometimes does and sometimes doesn't imho. 

Is the delta between capabilities that Abrams/Leo2 give versus the tanks UKR already have large enough to enable new type of operations we haven't really seen so far? 
But enough has been said already on the subject here by people more in the know so I'll just observe and draw conclusions when they are to be drawn.

I am curious if Ukraine can make (another) large move this winter. I had expected there to be some new developments. But the winter isn't over yet.

[womble]

22 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Spain and Portugal together have the largest reservoir of Leos in Europe and it's unclear why quite a number of those could not be spared. 

Well, Morocco has historical beef with Spain, and, unfortunately, the US sold 'em a passel of Abrams, so the Spaniards probably have as legitimate a need for their currrent-gen MBTs as Greece does.

[danfrodo]

20 minutes ago, JonS said:

That's only true if you believe the only counter to a tank is another tank, and/or the Russians are dumb enough to try and play your game.

Oh, wait. We already agreed: Russia sux. Carry on.

I don't see tank-tank battles as being the main advantage.  The infantry needs support to beat up contested defensive positions full of mobiks, so I think infantry support will be the main usage.  Sometimes the infantry needs to be able to counter RU IFVs & tanks.  yes, they can do this with ATGMs but having some tanks in overwatch provides both infantry support and keeps the enemy armor at bay -- tanks & good IFVs will keep fighting when mortars & arty are landing while the infantry w ATGMs will be suppressed (or worse).  I think it will keep attacks moving forward w alacrity.

[LukeFF]

Somewhere Eisenhower is spinning in his grave right now. 

Edited January 24, 2023 by LukeFF

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

This is the biggest news this year for the war. And there is big competitions so that is saing much:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/politics/pentagon-ukraine-ammunition.html

Rusnet will have a serious headache...

No way katsaps will win this war.

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Bad OpSec in this command center. On the screens, names of units, involved in Bakhmut battle are seen and numbers of drones wich find out itself in the air simultainously - Al-Jazzera didn't blure them.

Except mentioned drone recon groups "Madyar", "Adam", "Skala" also seen next units and numbers near them likely a number of drone in this unit:

"Ochi" (eng. "eyes") drone recon unit  - drone 029 

"Lemon" - probably also callsign of drone recon unit

45th arty brigade - some "stealth" drone

Artillery recon battalion of 10th mountain-assault brigade - drone 1

1st rifle battalion of 10th mountain-assult brigade - drone 2

99th separate infantry battalion of 61st mech,brigade - drone 1

37th separate SP-arty battalion of 61st mech.brigade - drone 1 and drone 2

3rd mech.battalion of 24th mech.brigade - drone 2

1st rifle battalion of 24th mech.brigade - drone 2

Artillery recon battalion of 24th mech.brigade - drone 6

57 "Italian" - likely callsign of somebody from aerial recon unit of 57th mot.inf brigade

105th separate battalion of 63rd mech.brigade - drone 1 

5th separate assault regiment - drones 1, 5, 7 

3rd separate assault brigade (former 3rd SOF regiment) - two drones

8th SOF regiment - drone 1

3rd operative purpose brigade of National Guard - drones 1,2,3

 

Thus, this command center in moment of filming controlled situation on the land via 24 drones

 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Rusnet will have a serious headache...

No way katsaps will win this war.

I can only imagine how the "tankies" () feel about all the news today. 

What, great news today boys.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Normally I am annoyed when I have to wait for a long train, but in this case I would be more than happy to sit and watch all that beautiful metal go rumbling by!  Years ago I saw a train loaded with Bradleys coming back from an exercise in Canada.  That was fun.

These are likely from 1st Cav's rotation.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Bad OpSec in this command center. On the screens, names of units, involved in Bakhmut battle are seen and numbers of drones wich find out itself in the air simultainously - Al-Jazzera didn't blure them.

Except mentioned drone recon groups "Madyar", "Adam", "Skala" also seen next units and numbers near them likely a number of drone in this unit:

"Ochi" (eng. "eyes") drone recon unit  - drone 029 

"Lemon" - probably also callsign of drone recon unit

45th arty brigade - some "stealth" drone

Artillery recon battalion of 10th mountain-assault brigade - drone 1

1st rifle battalion of 10th mountain-assult brigade - drone 2

99th separate infantry battalion of 61st mech,brigade - drone 1

37th separate SP-arty battalion of 61st mech.brigade - drone 1 and drone 2

3rd mech.battalion of 24th mech.brigade - drone 2

1st rifle battalion of 24th mech.brigade - drone 2

Artillery recon battalion of 24th mech.brigade - drone 6

57 "Italian" - likely callsign of somebody from aerial recon unit of 57th mot.inf brigade

105th separate battalion of 63rd mech.brigade - drone 1 

5th separate assault regiment - drones 1, 5, 7 

3rd separate assault brigade (former 3rd SOF regiment) - two drones

8th SOF regiment - drone 1

3rd operative purpose brigade of National Guard - drones 1,2,3

 

Thus, this command center in moment of filming controlled situation on the land via 24 drones

 

 

Very good to see centralized intel gathering from dispersed assets.  I assume that the central command can issue instructions to the drone operators in the field, for example focusing on something specific that interests them and not necessarily the operator.

Steve

[Zeleban]

Guys, it looks like you have caused tons of rage on your heads.

[pintere]

30 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Can understand why Greece needs Leo deterrent re their ancient enemy Turkey, but Spain and Portugal together have the largest reservoir of Leos in Europe and it's unclear why quite a number of those could not be spared.  

Ditto for all the Nordic countries (except Finland), plus Germany. Poland is switching over to new tanks for their fleet so their Leo 2s won’t be needed for much longer. Between all those countries they could (and should) absolutely be able to dig up 300 Leo 2s for Ukraine.

[Beleg85]

Very interesting...it seems there was indeed a raid on Nova Kahkovka. Perhaps planned by Tactical Boris  himself?

3 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Guys, it looks like you have caused tons of rage on your heads.

Russians are just at the start of Kubler-Ross cycle. And Soloviev, Skabaieva and other propagandists already used their best ammunition. We had nukes on Berlin, satanists in Salem, now topic of eugenic breedings and transhumanism is at work. Total craziness.

I think they subconciously know they are f...d.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[DesertFox]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

These are likely from 1st Cav's rotation.

Yeah, I think so too. We have already seen their Bradleys on trains in Poland.

But there is some "other" activity going on in Germany:

 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by DesertFox

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yeah, I think so too. We have already seen their Bradleys on trains in Poland.

The question is if the vehicles from the unit being rotated out will stay in Poland.  Seems like it would be a smart thing to do even if all they do is sit around as a ready reserve in case hostilities escalate.

Steve

[Zeleban]

Nothing is clear, but a lot of action. Night raid by Ukrainian special forces near Novaya Kakhovka on the opposite bank of the Dnieper

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

 

Who knows what happened. There's a cut in the video just before the first explosion, and I don't see any troops in the trench after the cut. Not any dead ones either. Could be they all ran into the dugout.

I suspect the direction things are headed for dugouts is "landshark" attacks.  

Pairs or small groups of drones go in. The first one knocks on the door: "Candygram", and if they don't open up for the candy, it blows the door, probably not doing much damage inside, but opening a hole.  Second and later ones fly in the enclosed space and blow up.  The arms race will be to have some amount of autonomy to navigate around corners once they're inside and out of RF control.

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The question is if the vehicles from the unit being rotated out will stay in Poland.  Seems like it would be a smart thing to do even if all they do is sit around as a ready reserve in case hostilities escalate.

Steve

If I´m not mistaken those supposed to be handed over need to be prepared and adapted for foreign usage anyways? Deinstal some high-end radio and other gear which isn´t supposed to be given to UA. I guess they´ll do that in Poland with those tanks which are already there and backfill the unit which rotates out from the depots in Darmstadt or Mannheim or Poznan?

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Very interesting...it seems there was indeed a raid on Nova Kahkovka. Perhaps planned by Tactical Boris  himself?

 

Who is lazy to open full thread, where the viseo in comments here is Youtube. UKR group had one wounded, likely he was hit by fragment, when boats were shelled during withdrawing

 

[Zeleban]

The result of the raid

[Der Zeitgeist]

Former Ukrainian ambassador to Germany. 

 

[danfrodo]

25 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yeah, I think so too. We have already seen their Bradleys on trains in Poland.

But there is some "other" activity going on in Germany:

 

 

Is real?  as in not some older video?  Do you think it's recent?  

[panzermartin]

54 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Somewhere Eisenhower is spinning in his grave right now. 

Sad to see war taking such a toll on him. And this speech is... Sad.