How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Twisk]

I think no one has posted this? https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/berlin-will-allow-exports-german-tanks-ukraine-if-us-sends-its-tanks-source-2023-01-18/

 

Quote

BERLIN, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Germany will allow German-made tanks to be sent to Ukraine to help its defense against Russia if the United States agrees to send its own tanks, a German government source told Reuters.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has stressed the stipulation several times in recent days behind closed doors, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Western allies will meet at a U.S. air base in Germany on Friday to offer more weapons for Ukraine.

 

[cesmonkey]

If it takes the U.S. sending of 10 or 15 Abrams tanks to Ukraine to get Scholtz to greenlight the delivery of Leopard 2's, that should still be a "no-brainer".  See how well Ukraine makes use of this first batch of M1s.

But I suspect that they are really not being sent because Biden fears that they would be an escalation too far,  possibly provoking Putin.  Biden's strategy seems to be incrementally give the Ukrainians a little bit more from the U.S. inventory, but always hold back the really good stuff - out of fear.

 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

KMW must truly HATE Scholz. His intransigence in even allowing others to export their tanks to Ukraine must be killing their business. Who wants to be dealing with the German arms industry after this debacle?

The Poles going for buying from S.Korea in bulk is looking smarter every day. And I already thought it was a pretty good deal for the Poles to begin with.

[Harmon Rabb]

58 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I'm sorry my German friends, I've lived in Germany, love the place and people, astounding art,  history,  culture,  Beer,  bread,  women, I even like the actual language (!) but holy **** has Scholz made political spinelessness into a martial art. 

Even if he publicly commits He'll find ways to foot drag, reduce, side step and avoid following through in full on his word. 

Let's see Friday, but honestly, I'm not holding my bloody breath.

Exactly!

I remember visiting Germany years ago, Bavaria to be exact and loved it.

Beautiful architecture and nature, friendly people who would help a bumbling English speaking tourist who did not speak a word of German (no iPhones with built in maps that let you get around easy back then!). Most importantly you have not lived until you enjoyed Oktoberfest in Germany!

Can't say I like a lot of the decisions made by Scholz or Merkel for that matter, but that is not meant to be criticism of the entire country.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Why yes it does....

One might think the US and Ukraine are doing integrated planning or something.  Now I wonder where the next UA operation is going to happen?  My honest guess is the pull another one-two punch, starting in the east to pull the RA, and then hit Melitopol to cut that strategic bridge and render the RA split.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

KMW must truly HATE Scholz. His intransigence in even allowing others to export their tanks to Ukraine must be killing their business. Who wants to be dealing with the German arms industry after this debacle?

The Poles going for buying from S.Korea in bulk is looking smarter every day. And I already thought it was a pretty good deal for the Poles to begin with.

Grrr... I hate agreeing with Elmar.  Makes me feel dirty.  But this is an excellent point, despite the sordid past history of the guy posting it.  If I already hadn't had my bath this week I'd take another one.

Rehashing the days of old with Elmar aside, this illogical and harmful decision by Germany to prevent the people who paid for the vehicles to transfer them to a friendly nation is ridiculous.  I suspect the primary reason for this is to protect Germany's tank industry (i.e. can't sell 2nd hand tanks to someone who would otherwise buy brand new ones from Germany), but is disguised as some sort of anti-proliferation principle. Whatever it is, if a competitor does not have such restrictions, then that's a big plus that customers are now obligated to consider.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

Kissinger Sheds Resistance to Ukraine Joining NATO (Bloomberg)

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

One might think the US and Ukraine are doing integrated planning or something.  Now I wonder where the next UA operation is going to happen?  My honest guess is the pull another one-two punch, starting in the east to pull the RA, and then hit Melitopol to cut that strategic bridge and render the RA split.

With enough ammo Ukraine could shut down a lot of transit points.  Especially if it spent a week hitting different nodes in the same system.  Oh, like hitting 5 different critical infrastructure points on one rail line or one big bridge

We do have to remember our lessons from Kherson.  Russia can, and will, go to extraordinary lengths to work around even the most difficult circumstances.  So much so that the damage might not have all that big of an impact on Russian ops.

The best targets for extended range capabilities are, unfortunately, in the 200km+ range.  With that they could hit things anywhere in Crimea, including Sevastopol.  The day Ukraine can hit locations like that, be it from longer range weapons or by moving the front, is going to be a very bad day for the Black Sea Fleet.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

42 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

One might think the US and Ukraine are doing integrated planning or something.

Combat Mission LAN party this weekend.

"This week, top U.S. and Ukrainian commanders will hold a high-level planning meeting in Germany to game out the offensive planning, another senior U.S. official said. The drill, the official said, is meant to align Ukraine’s battle plans with the kinds of weapons and supplies NATO allies are contributing."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/us/politics/ukraine-crimea-military.html

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Combat Mission LAN party this weekend.

"This week, top U.S. and Ukrainian commanders will hold a high-level planning meeting in Germany to game out the offensive planning, another senior U.S. official said. The drill, the official said, is meant to align Ukraine’s battle plans with the kinds of weapons and supplies NATO allies are contributing."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/us/politics/ukraine-crimea-military.html

Cool!  I think I know someone involved with this.  If he isn't, he sure as heck knows about it.  Obviously can't mine any information out of him at this point, but I am going to ask him to remember as much as he can and spill the beans after the war is over

Steve

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

If it takes the U.S. sending of 10 or 15 Abrams tanks to Ukraine to get Scholtz to greenlight the delivery of Leopard 2's, that should still be a "no-brainer".  See how well Ukraine makes use of this first batch of M1s.

But I suspect that they are really not being sent because Biden fears that they would be an escalation too far,  possibly provoking Putin.  Biden's strategy seems to be incrementally give the Ukrainians a little bit more from the U.S. inventory, but always hold back the really good stuff - out of fear.

 

I really wish we didn't have to debunk this periodically. There are 10's of thousands of dead Russians out there specifically so because of a pretty lavish endowment of weapons and support from the US and the Biden administration's cajoling and arm twisting...which it's doing to Germany *right now*...to get others to contribute too. There are other reasons besides escalation (i.e. maintenance, logistics, training time, fuel, available skills sets, etc, ad nauseam) that pertain to what gets delivered and why. And that doesn't even touch the difficult domestic politics that he has to deal with...which nobody takes into account because between Biden, and McConnell it's been handled so adroitly so far. 

 

Edited January 19, 2023 by billbindc

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Combat Mission LAN party this weekend.

"This week, top U.S. and Ukrainian commanders will hold a high-level planning meeting in Germany to game out the offensive planning, another senior U.S. official said. The drill, the official said, is meant to align Ukraine’s battle plans with the kinds of weapons and supplies NATO allies are contributing."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/us/politics/ukraine-crimea-military.html

There's a lot more going on with this than just a planning meeting. This is a signaling exercise. To the Russians, most obviously...that there's a big punch coming and they'd better think about how much they want to grind their mobiks to dust in Bakhmut or waste them on feints towards Kyiv. To the Germans, that there's a war on, it's being fought in part from their own soil and they should be doing more in terms of Leopards, etc. To the rest of the world, that the US is shoulder to shoulder with the Ukrainian government. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There's a lot more going on with this than just a planning meeting. This is a signaling exercise. To the Russians, most obviously...that there's a big punch coming and they'd better think about how much they want to grind their mobiks to dust in Bakhmut or waste them on feints towards Kyiv. To the Germans, that there's a war on, it's being fought in part from their own soil and they should be doing more in terms of Leopards, etc. To the rest of the world, that the US is shoulder to shoulder with the Ukrainian government. 

I wonder what incompetent drunk civilian contractor they're going to get to command the Russian side of the exercise?  I mean, they are trying to make this realistic, right?

Steve

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

One might think the US and Ukraine are doing integrated planning or something.  Now I wonder where the next UA operation is going to happen?  My honest guess is the pull another one-two punch, starting in the east to pull the RA, and then hit Melitopol to cut that strategic bridge and render the RA split.

Now we're talking about something fun to speculate about.  What will UKR do?  Feint where & then hit where?  Or pretend the first punch is a feint when it's actually the real punch, ala Normandy?  Much more interesting than drone swarms which are gonna be a bit too late for this war.

Tokmak is a great target, cutting the east-west rail line.  Plus using the new 150km missiles to cut the two lines out of crimea.  I am sure RU has stockpiled a good amount of stuff but severely interdicting new supply matters and matters a lot in an artillery heavy war.

Steven mentioned above that RU managed in Kherson to get around the cutting of the bridges -- except that RU also had to flee Kherson due to the cutting the bridges as it was unsustainable. 

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There's a lot more going on with this than just a planning meeting. This is a signaling exercise. To the Russians, most obviously...that there's a big punch coming and they'd better think about how much they want to grind their mobiks to dust in Bakhmut or waste them on feints towards Kyiv. To the Germans, that there's a war on, it's being fought in part from their own soil and they should be doing more in terms of Leopards, etc. To the rest of the world, that the US is shoulder to shoulder with the Ukrainian government. 

Unfortunately not even the Russians are likely to fall for another information op like the one that preceded the Kharkiv offensive. Specifically the mournful declaration that there could not possibly be a Kharkiv offensive with Kherson underway.

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder what incompetent drunk civilian contractor they're going to get to command the Russian side of the exercise?  I mean, they are trying to make this realistic, right?

Steve

Can I volunteer? 

[kevinkin]

45 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Feint

Normally a feint would have to appear credible in appearance. I mean in the weight of the operation and weapons deployed. But in the case of the RA in 2023, that's not going to be the case. They are so gun shy that any move against them will look like Water Payton deeking the jock strap off Putin. (If he even needs one) Maybe the newer NATO equipment might serve as an initial distraction in the overall maneuver. Not to say they will not be involved in heavy fighting down the line. Normally you might hold off and concentrate the new stuff for a hammer blow. New and used equipment might be married together into even more effective light mech formations.  

[fireship4]

A thread on GLSDB by @COUPSURE via @DEFMON3:

https://nitter.net/i/status/1615819359670132741

Edited January 19, 2023 by fireship4

[The_MonkeyKing]

There is going to be a series standoff with these Leopards and the H-hour is tomorrow in Rammstein meeting. Poland PM hinting that we will do what has to be done, no matter the German export permissions. 

Germany painted itself to a corner with the US M1 Abrams demand. I think there was absolute no plans for doing this anytime soon, for multiple good reasons. Only compromise I can think of is US making a sale of M1 Abrams with a far off delivery date.

EDIT: new plot twist:

Cannot make this **** up

Edited January 19, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[NamEndedAllen]

That’s the ticket!

 

 

1 hour ago, fireship4 said:

A thread on GLSDB by @COUPSURE via @DEFMON3:

https://nitter.net/i/status/1615819359670132741

 

Benjamin Pittet@COUPSURE

10h

Should Ukraine eventually get these weapons, Russia will no longer be safe anywhere in Ukraine (except in Crimea). The Russians are afraid of HIMARS systems, so imagine with this new Ukrainian capability. The Russians will be targets as soon as they set foot in Ukraine.

 

 

[Huba]

59 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

There is going to be a series standoff with these Leopards and the H-hour is tomorrow in Rammstein meeting. Poland PM hinting that we will do what has to be done, no matter the German export permissions. 

Germany painted itself to a corner with the US M1 Abrams demand. I think there was absolute no plans for doing this anytime soon, for multiple good reasons. Only compromise I can think of is US making a sale of M1 Abrams with a far off delivery date.

EDIT: new plot twist:

Cannot make this **** up

Free the Ariete! Failing that, free the Centaurs! At the end it will turn out that Scholz is a hero - by doing absolutely nothing he'll force all the European nations and Americans to send their tanks to Ukraine. I can respect that

Tongue in cheek, but it really starts to look like an organized action.Olaf takes the blame, but it cuts short the discussion about sending tanks in other countries - we have to push the Germans, don't we? 

Edited January 19, 2023 by Huba

[The_MonkeyKing]

At least this Leopard/MBT crysis is giving a smoke screen for the GLSDB, that is a system that matters much, much more in the sort and medium term.

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

At least this Leopard/MBT crysis is giving a smoke screen for the GLSDB, that is a system that matters much, much more in the sort and medium term.

I hope that under the same screen PL and Slovakia will announce the MiG-29s, paving the way for Western aircraft.
And that would be it really, I don't see what different types systems the West could deliver on top of that - with enough GLSDB, ATACMS might be kinda redundant; AFVs are not a problem anymore; same for SAMs; maybe they could use a submarine ? It will become purely the question of numbers, not new capabilities - a new chapter indeed.
 

Also this - brutal...

 

Edited January 19, 2023 by Huba

[JonS]

On 1/18/2023 at 5:54 PM, Battlefront.com said:

As recently discussed, fixed positions eventually mean death if the enemy has the right forces invested.  ...

The solution to static death is dynamic life.  Or at least a chance of life.  A force that has all of the stuff I listed off above, defensive or offensive, has what it needs to keep moving around enough to remain combat capable when engaging the enemy.  ...

I see success coming from a force that can successfully bob and weave long enough to land effective blows.  A defensive force must be prepared to flex so as to not be wiped out in a static position. ...  Move tactical positions frequently, even if it means temporarily moving to less desirable ground.  ...

An offensive force does pretty much the same thing, except when it bobs and weaves it favors stepping forward whenever possible. 

I think this is right, but the thing is that this really isn't physically sustainable for very long. Soldiers could keep up that for maybe 96 hours before they just, well, stopped. Stopped by falling asleep while driving, falling asleep eating, falling asleep looking through a weapon scope, falling asleep mid-radio message, falling asleep refuelling or re-loading, falling asleep mid-poo. And the guys that don't just falling asleep will be hallucinating, hard, which isn't going to generate good outcomes.

I think it's likely that forces will draw back from each other in order to give themselves enough time to OODA. So, no-mans land becomes something like 100km deep. Maybe some snake eaters are wandering around in there, but they'll be moving very slowly since there'll be so much EM radiation being dumped into that space that an overly dramatic eyeroll would be noticed. At 100km, practically all barrel artillery is out of range and all ATGMs are out of range. The only things with sufficient legs are stuff like hearty missile systems such as ATACMS, and air power, and the breadth of no-mans land provides enough time to sense and engage those before they get anywhere interesting. That way the human stuff can occur - eating, planning, sleeping, rehearsing, resupply, maintenance, and such like - with reasonable safety and security.

The obvious problem then becomes, well, ok, how do I as an attacker cross 100km of sensor-dense no-mans land and then break into and through the enemies defended zone? How do I achieve surprise? How do I concentrate? How do I feint?

Steve's 'bobbing and weaving' is part of the answer, but I believe you'll also need to break open some good, recent WWI histories and see how they overcame essentially the same problem 100 years ago. Then update and apply their answers in a modern context.

 

 

Edited January 19, 2023 by JonS

[paxromana]

9 minutes ago, JonS said:

I think this is right, but the thing is that this really isn't physically sustainable for very long. Soldiers could keep up that for maybe 96 hours before they just, well, stopped. Stopped by falling asleep while driving, falling asleep eating, falling asleep looking through a weapon scope, falling asleep mid-radio message, falling asleep refuelling or re-loading, falling asleep mid-poo. And the guys that don't just falling asleep will be hallucinating, hard, which isn't going to generate good outcomes.

That's one of the key reasons why the Germans delayed attacking the Dunkirk pocket ... not out of the goodness of their little Nazi hearts, but because, Bennies notwitstanding, their Traffic accident rate had skyrocketed.

Edited January 19, 2023 by paxromana