How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

22 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

This movie simply lacked good acting and single identifiable character, like Ernest Brognine or Ian Holm in other adaptation. It's as bland as ca.90% of modern movies- visually stunning, but failing of showing internal human devastation that war causes that was so important in the book (all good "anti-war" books, in fact). And it hit the German movie theatres in worst possible time, frankly.

Still nothing come close to "Paths of Glory" and other good old pieces.

One of the biggest “effects” in the old films was using the Black and White film medium! They can do so much more showing of “mood” with the shading. Biggest reason I’m against “colorizing” the old classics.

[Zeleban]

Archaic versus modern. For the first time I see RKG-3 being used for its intended purpose.

[Boche]

48 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I wonder what exactly are the Spanish needs for MBTs? At least right now in the coming couple of years.

Valid question. Which is why I dont know why we have so many. The main reason would be a land war with Morroco or deployment to eastern europe vs the Russians. We are already enoyings spains first deployment of Leo2Es in Latvia but just in platoon strength. Wether or not that will be increased or decreased in the future I dont know.

Vs Morroco its debatable wether they would even see combat before "its over". A number of Leo2a4s are stationed in Ceuta and Melilla. Depends on the strategy we decide to employ.

57 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

The question must be financial in nature in there. I hope some sort of Leopard pool funding will be created. I see no reason for Spain not giving at least half of its operational fleet for fair compensation.

Financial AND poltiical. Defense is a tabboo subject in Spain. Any talk of defense spending creates ripples politicians are not willing to create. With the war now there has been some leeway in justifying some increases but...still. There SECOND main party in the goverment coalition heavily lobied AGAINST sending ANYTHING to Ukraine. Still the Main question is how many of those Leo2s are operational. If you are going to ask for half our fleet....yeah I doubt we can give that. I would love for that to be the case though.

 

[Splinty]

47 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So Splinty, what do you think of bradleys for UKR?  And remember option B is old soviet APCs, M113s, MRAPs or HUMMVs.  Is it realistic to supply & maintain these in UKR once crews & infantry are trained to use them? 

I think if used properly as part of a combined arms team, the Ukrainians will be very happy with their Bradleys. BUT, IMHO the caveat here is the correct combined arms approach. To be their most effective, Brads need modern MBTs. Abrams being the obvious but at least for now, the least likely one, Leopard 2s or Challengers are more likely in any realistic time frame. The hunter-killer concept of 2 Brads working as eyes/bird dogs while the tank sits and waits for a shot would suit the Ukraine's way of war very well if you ask me.

Of course there are a lot more factors such as ISR and artillery/ air support to be integrated into this as well.

Edited January 15, 2023 by Splinty

[Vet 0369]

20 hours ago, dan/california said:

A whole bunch of Swiss business interests and practices need to be subjected to vastly increased scrutiny. 

Switzerland is “officially” neutral, and Ukraine is at war with Russia, so selling or giving any military systems to Ukraine would be violating their neutrality, unless they made the same offers to Russia.  Qatar isn’t at war with anyone that I know of.

[MSBoxer]

30 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

there is an excellent Apache helicopter simulator, where any more or less persistent person can figure it out: https://www.digitalcombatsimulator.com/ru/shop/modules/ah-64d/

I have been flying with DCS for a decade or so and have been flying the Apache since beta.  I can tell you switching from a Hind to the Apache is not easy.  Granted I am by no means a pilot, but I have put in my sim hours.  The AH64 is a different beast all together.  I would think that an experienced helo driver could benefit from the DCS sim, perhaps reducing the training time by a bit but our pilots have been using sims for decades as part of training and we still have extended training periods.

[Haiduk]

There are rumors that Bradleys will come to new formed 47th assault brigade. This unit recently got Slovenian T-55S, Panthera T6 and they have much more western infantry weapon that Soviet. "Frontman" of this bigade is former airborne and popular blogger Valeriy Markus, who passed ATO in 2014-2016 in 25th airborne brigade and now has a duty of chief master sergeant of brigade. He actively PR it in own FB and twitter, gathering donation via own charity fund.

This brigade passed a way from 47th rifle battalion, which fought for Svitlodarsk to current status. Hight Command decided to create new brigade on new principles of tough selection of personnel and gaining most effectiveness. So brigade is training and in current time guarding Belarusian border. So, this brigade  should be for Army like Azov in National Guard. But let's see...

 

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

There are rumors that Bradleys will come to new formed 47th assault brigade. This unit recently got Slovenian T-55S, Panthera T6 and they have much more western infantry weapon that Soviet. "Frontman" of this bigade is former airborne and popular blogger Valeryi Markus, who passed ATO in 2014-2016 in 25th airborne brigade and now has a duty of chief master sergeant of brigade. He actively PR it in own FB and twitter, gathering donation via own charity fund.

This brigade passed a way from 47th rifle battalion, which fought for Svitlodarsk to current status. Hight Command decided to create new brigade on new principles of tough selection of personnel and gaining most effectiveness. So brigade is training and in current time guarding Belarusian border. So, this brigade  should be for Army like Azov in National Guard. But let's see...

 

 

Interesting,  ref @Splinty's notes above. I wonder if the upgrades to those T55s gave a NATO style BMS  that would d integrate better with Brad's than the standard UKR one? 

 

[kraze]

21 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Switzerland is “officially” neutral, and Ukraine is at war with Russia, so selling or giving any military systems to Ukraine would be violating their neutrality, unless they made the same offers to Russia.  Qatar isn’t at war with anyone that I know of.

Who was Qatar defending its cup from then?

Also "swiss neutrality" has nothing to do with neutrality. It's like how they were "neutral" during WW2 by supporting the Nazi regime finances.

Helping genocidal murderers hide their cash is not very neutral methink.

Edited January 15, 2023 by kraze

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Switzerland is “officially” neutral, and Ukraine is at war with Russia, so selling or giving any military systems to Ukraine would be violating their neutrality, unless they made the same offers to Russia.  Qatar isn’t at war with anyone that I know of.

Yeah, but they have denied allowing their customers to send their Swiss made weapons/ammo to Ukraine.  To suggest that is somehow violating their neutrality is tenuous at best.

Steve

[JonS]

17 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

I have been flying with DCS for a decade or so and have been flying the Apache since beta.  I can tell you switching from a Hind to the Apache is not easy.  Granted I am by no means a pilot, but I have put in my sim hours.  The AH64 is a different beast all together.  I would think that an experienced helo driver could benefit from the DCS sim, perhaps reducing the training time by a bit but our pilots have been using sims for decades as part of training and we still have extended training periods.

Yeah, lol. The idea that a $60 game can make you an effective attack helo pilot is just so gosh darn cute.

If that were true, I should be Chairmain of the Joint Chiefs, given the number of hours I've put into CM.

Edited January 15, 2023 by JonS

[womble]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I think may work for helicopters but the problem with a minimalist approach to amour logistical support stretching back to Poland is that you are going to need 2-3 times the number of tanks to keep what you want in the field.  A tank with a relatively minor issue, say in the FCS, will need to be pulled all the way back to Poland - and out of battle.  While a more forward logistics support concept sees the tech go to the tank and simply switch out the parts.  In western nations this is up to entire power packs, the aim is to keep the tank forward near battle for as long as possible.  

This will mean if you want 100 tanks in battle, you can count on 2/3rds either on their way back or forward for maintenance and repairs.  And then add logistical vulnerability of having a LOC extending well over 1000kms.  This will mean rail/heavy haul unless you want to burn out your tanks driving them.

 

Looks like I misunderstood what you meant about modular kit not needing much technical training. As I interpreted it, you wouldn't be sending the tanks back and forth to Poland, just the postulated FCS module.

Quote

In Germany tank crews do not do a lot of what we would consider first line repairs and maintenance.  They have built a plug and play logistical system designed to simply pull out a piece of the tank and rotate in a new one.  This means that all that crew training we do to fix/maintain a tank in situ is not required for the German Army

So I don't know where the German system draws the line between "pulling and replacing a part" (with an assumed couple of clips and a lever-secured data cable... "plug and play") and dealing with the whole vehicle, and what kind of work on the whole vehicle warrants the crew wielding the spanners, and which jobs require the withdrawal and replacement of the entire chassis.

 

[JonS]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

denied allowing their customers to send their Swiss made weapons/ammo

That's a standard clause from all nations that produce weapons - their govt has the final say on what you do with stuff you purchased and "own."

Calling Switzerland a rogue state for behaving the way the Swiss always have is just petulant whining.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, JonS said:

Yeah, lol. The idea that a $60 game can make you an effective attack helo pilot is just so gosh darn cute.

If that were true, I should be Chairmain of the Joint Chiefs, given the number of hours I've put into CM.

I think his point was that even in the simulator the jump between the two platforms is very difficult.  Sims can give us hints of what the real world is like, provided they are basically sound.  I have no opinion of this flight sim, but I do have an opinion of Combat Mission

Steve

[Kinophile]

12 hours ago, JonS said:

Apaches are owned by the Army, not the Air Force. Harry did a rotation to Afghanistan as an Apache backseater, after he'd done a rotation as a recce troop commander. Serious props to the guy.

IIRC, Apache training is like 2 years. They are complex machines.

Edit: for the Brits it is something like six months just to learn how to fly it, another six to know how to fight in it, and a final six to be passed combat ready. That assumes you're starting as a fully qualified, army helicopter pilot. Apaches aren't likely to make much play in this war.

Yah I was teasing A relative trained briefly with Harry (I think early during his ground/mech days) found him very straightforward and no pretense.  A worker.  I've zero love for the monarchy,  so it's nice to see someone not rest on their status. 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, JonS said:

That's a standard clause from all nations that produce weapons - their govt has the final say on what you do with stuff you purchased and "own."

Calling Switzerland a rogue state for behaving the way the Swiss always have is just petulant whining.

Sheesh man... you keep reading things I am not saying and not reading what I am saying.  Yes, countries have these clauses built into their contracts, but to say that allowing Germany to send Swiss ammo along with German vehicles to protect civilians from acts of terrorism is somehow violating Switzerland's neutrality is a stretch.

Steve

[JonS]

I agree; that was boxer's point. I'm reiterating his response to another poster that games don't make you a SME.

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, JonS said:

I agree; that was boxer's point. I'm reiterating his response to another poster that games don't make you a SME.

Well, in that case it's valid   I tell people that about Combat Mission all the time.  Just because you wiped the floor with the enemy in CM doesn't mean you'd be able to repeat that in the real world.  Even after changing your underwear.

Steve

[MSBoxer]

7 minutes ago, JonS said:

Yeah, lol. The idea that a $60 game can make you an effective attack helo pilot is just so gosh darn cute.

If that were true, I should be Chairmain of the Joint Chiefs, given the number of hours I've put into CM.

It is great for cockpit familiarization, but in terms of tactics and coordination I am not sure it would be that helpful unless you were flying as a unit with instructors.

[JonS]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sheesh man... you keep reading things I am not saying and not reading what I am saying.  Yes, countries have these clauses built into their contracts, but to say that allowing Germany to send Swiss ammo along with its vehicles to protect civilians from acts of terrorism is somehow violating Switzerland's neutrality is a stretch.

Isn't that for Switzerland to decide though?

When we retired our A4s a couple of decades ago the plan was to sell them, and s buyer was found - in South America IIRC. The US nixed that one, even though the US can barely be considered neutral and wasn't at war or in conflict with either party. And that was for 1950s tech. I'm having a hard time getting riled at the Swiss for behaving the same with much more relevant tech.

Edited January 15, 2023 by JonS

[Kinophile]

Philip OBrien put me on to this guy:

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

54 minutes ago, Boche said:

Valid question. Which is why I dont know why we have so many. The main reason would be a land war with Morroco or deployment to eastern europe vs the Russians. We are already enoyings spains first deployment of Leo2Es in Latvia but just in platoon strength. Wether or not that will be increased or decreased in the future I dont know.

Vs Morroco its debatable wether they would even see combat before "its over". A number of Leo2a4s are stationed in Ceuta and Melilla. Depends on the strategy we decide to employ.

Financial AND poltiical. Defense is a tabboo subject in Spain. Any talk of defense spending creates ripples politicians are not willing to create. With the war now there has been some leeway in justifying some increases but...still. There SECOND main party in the goverment coalition heavily lobied AGAINST sending ANYTHING to Ukraine. Still the Main question is how many of those Leo2s are operational. If you are going to ask for half our fleet....yeah I doubt we can give that. I would love for that to be the case though.

 

Thank you for the Spain insight. I somehow always thought Spain as pretty militarist and ready to go with the Ukraine support.

Never thought it would have been a taboo of any sort.

 

[Haiduk]

Artillerists of 66th mech.brigade shell Russians with 105 mm M101 howitzer. Soldier says their gun was produced in 1942 or 1943, but shoots perfectly. In hotest days they make up to 800 shots. You can see huge pill of ammo, prepared for fuses mounting. Russians called these crews "Polish mortar crews", so one guy jokingly said some words in Polish. 

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

The artillery summaries are particularly useful :

 

 

 

[Fernando]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I wonder what exactly are the Spanish needs for MBTs? At least right now in the coming couple of years. Here in Finland we are debating if UKR would need ours more than we. Poland already decided to send more than half of its tanks over the year and is now eyeing their Leo fleet for UKR.

The question must be financial in nature in there. I hope some sort of Leopard pool funding will be created. I see no reason for Spain not giving at least half of its operational fleet for fair compensation.

The Spanish problem is Morocco.

1. Spain has two cities on the north African coast (Ceuta and Melilla) and several islands and islets (Perejil, Chafarinas Islands, Alborán island, Peñón de Vélez and Peñón de Alhucemas)  off the north African coast. They have been Spanish for centuries, but Morocco claims they should be Moroccan. Last, but not least, they also claims the whole continental platform up to the Canary Islands.

2. We already had a short war in Ifni in 1957 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ifni_War ), problems in the Spanish Sahara in 1975, an incident over Perejil Island in 2002 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perejil_Island ), the border incidents in may 2021  ( https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incidente_fronterizo_entre_España_y_Marruecos_de_2021) and so on. Morrocco has NEVER been a trusting friend nor an ally.

2. Ceuta has some land protecting it, but the only way to defend Melilla is assaulting the macizo del Gurugú (Gourougou Massif) and the high ground close to the city. MBT could not asssault the Gurugú, but are nice support weapons for any infantry assaulting all the high ground around Melilla.

3. Spain has usually neglected their armed forces, but has always tried to keep a clear superiority over Morocco. It means having a good air force (Ejército del Aire), able to quickly gain air superiority over Ceuta, Melilla and the Canary Islands, a navy strong enough to be able clear the sea from Moroccan ships and land some forces on the Moroccan coast, and keeping army forces strong enough to make some limited offensive operations in that area. 

BTW, my grandfather on my father side fought in Morocco in the 20's, while my better half's father fought in Ifni en 1957. In Spain, most people realize that Morocco has been our enemy more often than not.

OTOH most of the Leopard 2A4 are in a pity state, because they were an stopgap measure until the Leopard 2E ( the Spanish version of the Leopard 2A6) were available. The 2A4 have been in storage since the Leopard 2E were received. They could be send to Ukraine after being refurbished.

Edited January 15, 2023 by Fernando