How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

That's a lot... Can anyone give an estimate what production capacity NATO countries have right now, what the costs per brigade would be, etc

Production and refurbishment. From these 3K RU vehicles I'd say maybe 20% are new ones, the rest being restored vehicles from the stock - which are finite and also available to the West, probably in bigger numbers and quality. We need the grit to make them available month by month though, and also to work on UA advantage, or at least parity in aircraft, rocketry and other arms. There's a lot of reasons IMO to think that this war is more and more in the materiel/ atrritional phase now, and the longer it goes, the more important the force generation capabilities will become to both belligerents. UA has  a lot of advantages and force multipliers, but they absolutely need at least relatively matching numbers to push through. 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Huba

[Vet 0369]

9 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So, nets, lots of nets?

Nope, too low tech, and would probably work too well! The Military wouldn’t be able pay enough for them. The F4 Phantom used two J-79 engines. One of my Uncles who was assembling them told me that ball bearings used in the engine cost $0.01 for three, but that the Government specified in the procurement contract that they would pay $0.05 each. Apparently, they believed that if one paid more, they’d get better quality.

[Beleg85]

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So here I am again, wondering whether the next wave of counters to minidrone warfare world includes brobdignagian amounts of hi tech fabrics, whether it's kevlar/mylar cloaks over body armour or in this case, acres of nylon overhead nets, similar to the driftnets used (illegally, but don't tell the fish that) on Chinese supertrawlers.

Sure, cope cages are useless against top-attack shaped charge missile warheads; they probably make them more lethal.

....But these little Lancet-Switchblade things are basically upsized hand grenades, correct?  Pure HE charges?  So force and lethality drops by some exponent of distance (I'm a finance w@nk3r, not an engineer, somebody smarter please speak up).

So, nets, lots of nets?

I wander why, but while Switchblades clips are very rare and indeed no more than hand granades, Lancets seem like true bane of Ukrainian equipment in this war- they hunt for S300, howitzers, reportedly even a gunboat. Certainly nets can do the job well, but they are not always available. Also many videos show Lancets hitting howitzers from behind, they probably spot some weak points there. And this is despite the fact they are slow, not very accurate and need another guiding drone. They are clearly a problem.

34 minutes ago, Butschi said:

There is still no infantry in this super realistic game, right?

As far as I know, not. But it has a cult status and is very popular among teenagers also here, and it somewhat shapes their vision of the war. They even have Anime made on that popularity of armour topics:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cu9EYHjohp0

(You never saw me posting this, if somebody ask. Yes, culture is irreversibly broken and we are heading toward our doom of progressing infantilisation...)

Edited January 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[Huba]

Also, I don't think that was posted here before. This sounds like an equivalent of perhaps 2 or 3 US heavy brigades? Surely some will be just dislocated in PL ant Lithuania, but I'm pretty sure a considerable number will be used to first train, and then equip new UA units during the upcoming year. Uncle Sam is not messing around, that's half of what, according to the estimations I posted, RU could potentially put in line during this year, and it's not even half of January.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Huba

[dan/california]

59 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

But this, I think, is frankly what gets under everyones skin about Scholz. 

It's his slavish obsequsiouness to party politics and his avoidance of what many  expect of the leader of the largest country in EU -  moral leadership. 

I mean,  it's bloody ridiculous - Here is a tailor-made historical opportunity, a once in a generation chance to take the moral lead against an enemy that is an insanely similar mirror to Germany's terrible past, to finally put to bed the idea of continuing German guilt,  to bloody LEAD THE CONTINENT on a deeply righteous project and -  wtf is he doing? Fretting about voting margins? Dribbling Gepards to the Ukrainians?

Doesn't Scholz get it?  He could be the Greatest German of his Generation, outshine Merkel and put her Russian complacency to shame. And who did we get instead -  Boris Bloody Johnson?  Boris Johnson put the German Chancellor to shame? A Clown showed up the leader of Germany?! 

Sure,  polls etc show certain,  whatever.  Polls change and can be changed. . You can lead your nation with conviction and the polls will follow. You take a moral stand,  stating clear and unequivocal democratic principles and people will vote for you even though they don't like much else about you. 

But, GOD he's such a waste of space.Yet another bland, grey, moral rubberband of a politicker such that he cannot see the chance that is being provided him -  or worse, he sees it but balks out of fear, his own inadequacy or sheer spineless careerism. 

There is a gaping, Chancellor shaped hole in the middle of European leadership and this fool will never fill it. He doesn't have the wit, ethical gumption or intellectual depth to lead anything more than a domestic political party. 

I guess leading Europe is just beyond his ability. 

Such a depressing twat. 

Please note that Kinophile is a much better writer than I am. Well said sir!

 

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Capt]

30 minutes ago, Huba said:

Also, I don't think that was posted here before. This sounds like an equivalent of perhaps 2 or 3 US heavy brigades? Surely some will be just dislocated in PL ant Lithuania, but I'm pretty sure a considerable number will be used to first train, and then equip new UA units during the upcoming year. Uncle Sam is not messing around, that's half of what, according to the estimations I posted, RU could potentially put in line during this year, and it's not even half of January.

Are these not just reinforcing deployments to NATO states?  I know we are up gunning in Latvia as well.  I have nothing on them becoming donations to the UA, but now that you mention it that probably has got Russia wondering as well.

As to how much support we need to keep pumping into the UA to keep it competitive. I think this is a dynamic metric.  We had a number for defensive operations but the UA has moved to offensive ops which is a different demand.  I am not sure an entire Bdes worth of equipment per month is sustainable, at least not western equipment.  I mean we did the math on the Ukrainian CHODs public big list and it included half of the US inventory of M777s.  Now beefing up Ukraine arms industry so it can produce a lot of vehicles is sounding more and more like a better idea.

[dan/california]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 Now beefing up Ukraine arms industry so it can produce a lot of vehicles is sounding more and more like a better idea.

"Joint ventures" manufacturing in Poland until the end of hostilities sound even better. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/10/7384212/

 

This is an excellent example of good enough engineering

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

I wander why, but while Switchblades clips are very rare and indeed no more than hand granades, Lancets seem like true bane of Ukrainian equipment in this war- they hunt for S300, howitzers, reportedly even a gunboat. Certainly nets can do the job well, but they are not always available. Also many videos show Lancets hitting howitzers from behind, they probably spot some weak points there. And this is despite the fact they are slow, not very accurate and need another guiding drone. They are clearly a problem.

As far as I know, not. But it has a cult status and is very popular among teenagers also here, and it somewhat shapes their vision of the war. They even have Anime made on that popularity of armour topics:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cu9EYHjohp0

(You never saw me posting this, if somebody ask. Yes, culture is irreversibly broken and we are heading toward our doom of progressing infantilisation...)

LOL, yeah, big hit with the 13-year old crowd.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Nope, too low tech, and would probably work too well! The Military wouldn’t be able pay enough for them. The F4 Phantom used two J-79 engines. One of my Uncles who was assembling them told me that ball bearings used in the engine cost $0.01 for three, but that the Government specified in the procurement contract that they would pay $0.05 each. Apparently, they believed that if one paid more, they’d get better quality.

Like the (possibly apocryphal) 'Red Team' F5 pilot who, when they first set up the Top Gun school in the Seventies, installed a 49.95 'FuzzBuster' in his cockpit and was able to totally dodge the state-of-the-art 20M (add a zero in todays greenbacks) F14s.....

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Also, I don't think that was posted here before. This sounds like an equivalent of perhaps 2 or 3 US heavy brigades? Surely some will be just dislocated in PL ant Lithuania, but I'm pretty sure a considerable number will be used to first train, and then equip new UA units during the upcoming year. Uncle Sam is not messing around, that's half of what, according to the estimations I posted, RU could potentially put in line during this year, and it's not even half of January.

I posted about this a couple of pages ago (aka a couple hours ago ).  This is part of a regular rotation of the beefed up US military presence in Eastern Europe.  Specifically this is 2nd ABCT of 1st Cavalry Division.

Steve

[kevinkin]

https://www.eurasiareview.com/11012023-russian-withdrawal-from-kherson-would-it-help-end-or-escalate-the-war-oped/

Off the beaten track ... Kaliningrad is mentioned today in this article that otherwise menders all over the place.

Stoltenberg was worried that this would greatly reduce the information retrieved in the event of a nuclear conflict and that the deployment of Russian medium-range SSC-8 missiles eliminating the balance between Russia and NATO has given Moscow the chance of a first strike. The Secretary General of NATO believes that the deployment of this type of missile in the Kaliningrad region will cover all parts of Europe as potential targets. They could be used to destroy many NATO military infrastructures and target vital European cities such as Berlin, London, Paris, and Rome.

Maybe some form of stepped up surveillance is taking place. Enter the navies? Would P be so bold?

 

 

[Zeleban]

10 hours ago, Kraft said:

A video of 2 ambushed UA vehicles (French VAB btw) with crew killed in the streets was geolocated here

What makes you think that the armored personnel carriers in the photo fell victim to an ambush and not artillery fire, as happens in 99% of situations?

[Zeleban]

The temperature has been below zero for a week now. In the Donetsk region, the temperature dropped to -20C. Warm clothing is essential

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

The temperature has been below zero for a week now. In the Donetsk region, the temperature dropped to -20C. Warm clothing is essential

Looks like they won't even need to drop a grenade on this miserable guy. I'm wondering what kind of toll winter is taking on the Russians.

[Zeleban]

 

Drones can be used for more than just dropping grenades

[fireship4]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Drones can be used for more than just dropping grenades

Delayed onset diabetes grenade, CHO-45.  Victims get irritable if they eat dinner late.

[Kraft]

42 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

What makes you think that the armored personnel carriers in the photo fell victim to an ambush and not artillery fire, as happens in 99% of situations?

The close proximity of Russian troops just walking down the street showing off the fallen UA soldiers. That area, at the time of the video, was not contested.

Whether these vehicles were destroyed prior by something else and not shown on propaganda drone video, possible, my point is not that this was an ambush but that this situation is not as stable as some people seem to think.

It rubs me the wrong way when the fighting there is being downplayed as unimportant tactical development, or that an imminent counter will kick Wagner right back out.., a lot of soldiers have died defending it and the videos yesterday were pretty gruesome.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Kraft

[Butschi]

8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

But this, I think, is frankly what gets under everyones skin about Scholz. 

It's his slavish obsequsiouness to party politics and his avoidance of what many  expect of the leader of the largest country in EU -  moral leadership. 

I mean,  it's bloody ridiculous - Here is a tailor-made historical opportunity, a once in a generation chance to take the moral lead against an enemy that is an insanely similar mirror to Germany's terrible past, to finally put to bed the idea of continuing German guilt,  to bloody LEAD THE CONTINENT on a deeply righteous project and -  wtf is he doing? Fretting about voting margins? Dribbling Gepards to the Ukrainians?

Doesn't Scholz get it?  He could be the Greatest German of his Generation, outshine Merkel and put her Russian complacency to shame. And who did we get instead -  Boris Bloody Johnson?  Boris Johnson put the German Chancellor to shame? A Clown showed up the leader of Germany?! 

Sure,  polls etc show certain,  whatever.  Polls change and can be changed. . You can lead your nation with conviction and the polls will follow. You take a moral stand,  stating clear and unequivocal democratic principles and people will vote for you even though they don't like much else about you. 

But, GOD he's such a waste of space.Yet another bland, grey, moral rubberband of a politicker such that he cannot see the chance that is being provided him -  or worse, he sees it but balks out of fear, his own inadequacy or sheer spineless careerism. 

There is a gaping, Chancellor shaped hole in the middle of European leadership and this fool will never fill it. He doesn't have the wit, ethical gumption or intellectual depth to lead anything more than a domestic political party. 

I guess leading Europe is just beyond his ability. 

Such a depressing twat. 

Everyone is entitled to a little rant every now and then. A few things you might consider, though.

Scholz was elected for precisely the things you accuse him of. His whole election campaign was built on him being Merkel 2.0, just more... unobtrusive. During the pandemic Merkel had shown a little too much... presence. And his opponent, Armin Laschet, was not much different only with different party colors. In summary, we didn't want a great leader. We voted for someone who doesn't bother us with politics but lets us sleep on. Just like the 16 years before.

And I doubt Merkel would have acted much differently. She didn't even go to the toilet without studying the latest poll on digestion before. 50% against giving Leos puts it too mildly: Only 38% are actually in favour. Now, that may not sit very well with anyone here but ironically this is the whole point of the West supporting Ukraine in this war. Having to accept that a majority of people has a different opinion than I have is what's democracy is about and isn't this all about defending western values?

Lastly, from what you write I'm not sure you actually want Scholz (or anyone else for that matter) to really be a great leader. A great leader would not look at polls or political pressure but instead go by what he believes in. Now I have no clue what that would actually be in Scholz' case but it might not be what you want. To me it looks like, and no offense intended, you don't want a leader but a figurehead for your ideas. Nothing wrong with that but it's a different thing.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Butschi

[LongLeftFlank]

On 9/1/2022 at 12:03 AM, LongLeftFlank said:

 

Interesting backstory:

Since his father was one of Tyva’s major party bosses, Sergey Shoygu knew many important people. From 1987 to 1989 Boris Yeltsin held a similar position in the construction committee.

 

In 1991, Mr. Shoygu became the head of the Russian Rescue Corps, which, after a series of reorganizations and name changes, became today’s Ministry for Civil Defense, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters, internationally abbreviated as EMERCOM.... In the aftermath of the worst disasters, Mr. Shoygu was always sure to be seen managing the recovery efforts.

 

However, EMERCOM’s structure is peculiar in that it is heavily militarized, which prompts many questions. Why does it count over a hundred generals among its staff? ...President Yeltsin was proactive enough to create a trusted, alternate army – a personal guard that would be able to intervene in case of a political “emergency.”

Shameless self-bump, from last time (Sep) the Kremlin-watchers counted Shoygu out....

That guy is as wily as any of the Great Khans.  HE could be a 'Russian' ruler the West (and that includes Ukraine now!) might be able to do business with....

In fact, he could prove quite adept at playing us off against the Chinese, which frankly is the only card Putin and his Leningrad cowboys have left Russia to play internationally.  And he has his own deeply loyal private army (bodyguard) as well.

Or maybe I've been reading too much Galeev (actually, he's been kind of quiet lately)

.... oops I spoke too soon LOL!!!!!

...I think every Canadian will quietly murmur amen to this one.

Edited January 12, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Butschi]

6 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

LOL, yeah, big hit with the 13-year old crowd.

I think the real anime Fans are more my age... and I'm slightly older than 13...

[Bulletpoint]

8 minutes ago, Butschi said:

And I doubt Merkel would have acted much differently. She didn't even go to the toilet without studying the latest poll on digestion before.

8 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Lastly, from what you write I'm not sure you actually want Scholz (or anyone else for that matter) to really be a great leader. A great leader would not look at polls or political pressure but instead go by what he believes in.

Well, in a democracy, I think it makes good sense for a politician to base decisions on polls. Maybe it looks like "weakness", but it's supposed to be a government based on the will of the people, after all.

Great leaders who go by what they believe in might not go in the right direction.

[Bulletpoint]

It seems Russians have now begun wearing Ukrainian uniforms or at least their colour of armbands in order to deceive the Ukrainians?

Just watched a video where a Russian soldier is able to run up to a foxhole with two Ukrainian soldiers and apparently demand that they surrender. They seem confused and one of them refuses to let go of his weapon. Then the Russian shoots both of them dead.

[LongLeftFlank]

Red meat for the CM faithful!

Not sure whether this is brave or foolish, probably both, but if the latter the poor guy won't know it.  Any evidence that it's a 777 though? (ZOKA is a virulently pro-RU Serb but occasionally posts interesting stuff)

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by LongLeftFlank