How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

5 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Well, if there is nothing about the legal obligations of Poland and Slovakia to Ukraine, I will be glad to hear about the current difficulties of the Germans.

Yeah. Sorry, I've better things to do with my time then trying to argue with people who behave like petulant teenagers. I am actually on your side and I was actually trying to help you. Time for the ignore button.

[Haiduk]

Bridge supports in Melitopol, damaged by explosion (about 15-20 kg TNT). Russians are already making bypass road. 

PS. UKR General Staff claims, during strikes at targets in Melitopol, were inflicted losses to HQ of 58th CAA... It's good if true...

Edited December 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

And their we have the German position in a nutshell. Unless I read it wrong it says "of course we won't REALLY fight for Poland". And that is why everyone else is mad at them.

 

To be fair, it isn’t the German position. It is Butschi’s. Unless he speaks for the German government! 

[dan/california]

And I probably shouldn't have said it. We could argue about my future of drones post instead? 

And as always when the things get a bit heated on here.... Steve, we would cheerfully argue about the next game if you would give us even the tiniest little bone. 

 

[FancyCat]

2 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

To be fair, it isn’t the German position. It is Butschi’s. Unless he speaks for the German government! 

A bit uncharitable, he does reply later that NATO will be protected, and since Poland is part of NATO, it will be protected.

Mud!

 

[Zeleban]

11 minutes ago, Butschi said:

argue with people who behave like petulant teenagers.

 

It's true, sometimes I act like a naughty teenager when I can't carry out my plans due to lack of electricity.

[dan/california]

Edit, actually  hit a triple. 

 

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

double post, sorry

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-missiles.html

 

[Haiduk]

Rare footage of Switchblade 300 work. Though it has too weak warhead.

 

[danfrodo]

36 minutes ago, dan/california said:

And I probably shouldn't have said it. We could argue about my future of drones post instead? 

And as always when the things get a bit heated on here.... Steve, we would cheerfully argue about the next game if you would give us even the tiniest little bone. 

 

What I find most concerning is the amount of time spent bickering that could be spent by these gents playing the new CMRT battle pack.  It's really a shame.  

[Kinophile]

42 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

A bit uncharitable, he does reply later that NATO will be protected, and since Poland is part of NATO, it will be protected.

Mud!

 

It's basically sliding along on its belly,  using the tracks as propulsion. 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Nice to see the "5 bar" off-road rating in Combat Mission is accurate.

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Mud!

 

 

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I wouldn't underestimate "mobiks" and consider them as 100 % untrained unmotivated canon fodder. Of course there are many examples when people, not serving in army were conscripted, but still, enough large part of mobilized are either former conscript servicemen or former contractors. And even if this men from Russian deep assholes, they have the same capabilities of survival out of "zone of comfort" like our 40+ mobilized, about which I wrote some time ago. Put him in conditions "win or die" and he will try to survive and win.

Many of mobiks have been going at war either in high patriotic mood or just with calm fatalism "authorities ordered, so I must go". All problems of Russian mobilization is not people don't want to go at war, but only in not enough number of training centers, officers and equipment. Most of problem with "mobiks" by words of Russian milbloggers are in Western Military District. 

Yup, and that is my main concern regarding if West should indeed count on corrosive warfare/attrition strategy doing its job on Russian forces or in fact speed up delivery of some more modern goodies so Ukraine could have more speedy victories.

The problems with "corrosive strategy" regarding current Russian military could be:

1. It's playing into Putin good cards- complete disregard for human life and passivity of population. He has many more recruits to throw into meatgrinder, with 2nd or possibly 3rd wave of mobiks if necessary.

2.Russian society AD 2022 is not Soviet one. It's insulated, flat consumerism rule instead of Soviet (faulty, but real enough) collectivism. While in the second case whole block or kolchoz could see and empathize with one grieving family, now they largely don't care. That in turn means chance of young guys returning in zinc coffins that made Afganistan so devastating  to Soviet national psyche are to make people rebell against their president now are very low. There is somewhere the breaking point of course, but it is so far away it is frankly scary- probably amount of casualties of conventional warfare on both sides could even reach hundreds of thousands/low milions levels by that time. And Russians will still not rebell. Coup is another factor ofc, but still wishful thinking.

3.Successess against Russians utiliizing this corrosive strategy were thanks to their own stupidity ("Deep Raids"), or very hard fought (Kherson pocket), on very specific, geographically endangered sectors of the front. Even then muscovites, now properly shaken by defeats and buckled up under new command, were surprisingly resilient logistically at Kherson and even Svatove axis. I still remember people claiming for weeks now that Svatove is "boiled frog" just in a moment thanks to Himarses covering the main RU supply lines. Well, we are still waiting. And it is not any sort of blame on Ukrainians of course, just the fact we shouldn't undererestimate Russian ability to hold terrain despite logistical issues that would scare off Western military. They can take small riverine barges, civilian trucks, airtransport or even transport ammo on their own backs- it will be ugly and premodern task, but if komandir orders to hold (especially when he shoot some people) it can be done.

4. Winter is great bet on our side here. I am not certain if it is true Russians are so badly prepeared for it as we want- some units undoubtedly are, however I already saw opinions shared by many trusted people (journalists on the ground, military experts, soldiers on the ground) that Russian military is alredy highly disjoined structure of several speeds, with dramatic shift in quality of command and soldiering between units. By no means all are that badly equipped or ill-prepared for winter was as are Wagnerite zeks thrown at Bakhmut.

5. Add fortifications, shortened front, military industry that is apparently still capable to spill some new tanks, relative popularity (or rather- not unpopularity, in Russian context) of SMO, already pretty developed and effective ways to circumvent Western sanctions etc. - all these factors does not point to attrition warfare as preferable strategy to defeat Russia. Maybe on very specific operational directions like Zaprizhia it could be repeated somehow, up to a point. But the fact it did worked before does not mean it must in the future.

Edited December 13, 2022 by Beleg85

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

SAR-sattelite we also already have

You have tanks too. So, no need for those either?

[Zeleban]

 

Post from Mashovets

 

As promised, today I am starting a detailed review of the entire northern Luhansk region.

 

Namely - who, where, in what composition and what is doing today with the enemy ...

 

However, before we go into details, a few general figures about the forces and means of the enemy, which he concentrated in the Kupyansky and Limansky directions (i.e. in the northern part of the Lugansk region):

 

- in general, these are from 28 to 30 BTGr, or units of equal size, of which - up to 9 are deployed in the operational-tactical reserve, or in the second tactical echelon, as well as up to 10-11 TGr (divisions) of cannon and rocket artillery

- in total, the enemy concentrated here up to 22-24 thousand personnel, and this figure continues to grow.

 

- up to 260-268 tanks

 

- up to 760-770 armored fighting vehicles

- up to 540 guns and large-caliber mortars (from 120 mm)

- from 110 to 132 MLRS units

 

- and somewhere under 1100 vehicles

And now to the details...

- Tavolzhanka area - consolidated BTGr of the 61st Separate Marine Brigade of the Marine Corps of the Northern Fleet (incomplete, partially "shabby", defending and performing tasks to prevent the development of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the northern and north-eastern direction). The main task at any cost is to "prevent" the emergence and expansion of any bridgeheads of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Oskol in the border zone (that is, towards the north, in the area of Tavolzhanka - Bogdanovsky - Liman 2-nd).

- the area of the village of Olshany - the 2nd BTGr of the 200th motorized brigade of the 14th AK coastal troops of the Northern Fleet (the condition is the same as that of the neighbor on the right, the task is somewhat different - to prevent the advance units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from advancing in the western direction)

- the area of village of Pervomayskoye - the 3rd BTGr of the same 200th motorized brigade of the 14th AK coastal troops of the Northern Fleet, but + 2 battalions of the 344th MRR of the Territorial troops, which, it must be understood, perform the function of an "inexhaustible source of replenishment" for units of 20 th MRB and pose as a tactical "reserve"

- in the region of Novaya Tarasovka, a rather interesting unit was deployed - the combined BTGr 467th of the Joint Training Center of the Western Military District. According to certain information, the command staff of the unit is almost completely staffed by the instructors and command staff of this center (“very statutory and very methodically correct”), + one and a half ten tanks from the 1st BTGr of the 26th TR of the 47th TD of the 1st Guards. TA (but this is almost all that the Russian command managed to complete this unit after its enchanting retreat from Izyum, where these "tankers" abandoned 2/3 of all their regular vehicles)

- Arapovka - somewhere up to 8-10 tanks of a tank company of the 10th TR (yes, this is from the 3rd AK, its 6th motor rifle division) + somewhere up to an infantry platoon (25-26 people) - etymology which is not installed

- the area of the village of Dobrolyubovka - another tank company (up to 7-8 tanks) of the same 10th TR of the 6th motorized rifle division of the 3rd AK ...

 

- the area of the village of Ivanovka is exactly the same tank company and from there ... with a few exceptions - somewhere up to a platoon from its composition - it is not ready for combat (tanks are broken).

- the area of the village of Orlyanskoye - the 9th "volunteer detachment" of BARS, formed on the basis of the same 14th AK, is defending.

All this crowd is engaged in one thing - it covers the direction to Pokrovskoye in order to prevent the Armed Forces of Ukraine from reaching the Troitskoye - Pokrovskoye - Svatovo road, and thus cut off the so-called northern logistics route (MTS) of the entire Svatov grouping of enemy troops ... or actually at Pokrovsk , or right under the border, near Troitsky, which is even worse for Russians ... In addition to the above units, the Russian command has recently deployed a number of additional units in this direction for the same purpose.

- in the area of the village of Topoli - the consolidated BTGr of the 11th AK of the coastal troops of the BF-a (this is what the Russians managed to scrape together in the Kaliningrad region after sending 2 "linear" BTGr from there to the front)

- as well as in the area with. Mechnikovo - the replenished remnants of the 1st BTGr of the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th AK coastal troops of the Northern Fleet were deployed as a tactical reserve of the "direction".

... All this "beauty" is complemented by the 101st rifle regiment of the "mobilization reserve" of the 1st AK concentrated in the village of Bogdanovskoye. And this is not at all accidental. The Donetsk "mobiks" were shoved right between two Russian personnel battalions in the hope that they would not run away prematurely if the forward units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decide to either cross Oskol or strike from the south towards the state border of Ukraine along the same Oskol.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, womble said:

They get the (eventual, once they're fully in compliance) removal of national sanctions, and the beginning of being readmitted to the "Community of Nations". I guess.

Again, sanctions. It's all that's left after the shouting and running about is over. Some of the "sanctions" that lift won't be so much official "thou shalt not"s being withdrawn as much as renormalisation of trading relationships. Being able to sell petrochem to the West at a market price, for example.

Of course, all this relies on Russia not just crawling into its shell and telling everyone to bugger off, like the North Koreans have.

It does look like a neat package, from afar. Possibly from very afar. And that’s about it, apart from also having had to agree to massive reparations - which would put a dent in oil dollars while the world moves from away dependency on Russian oil. Also somehow removing the Putin government and handing over high level war criminals. Replacing it with a neutral-ish Western friendly new government. And the humiliation in front of not just the world, but the oligarchs, military and the chattering classes. Plus, all this *before* leaving occupation of the four Oblasts? Because…they are in a stalemate, and maintaining the occupation? How likely to be accepted?

Or because Ukraine is opening an even larger can of Whup-arse on them and driving Russians from the field, out of all Ukraine. In which case Ukraine would have to give up its already accomplished re-occupation of its national territories to “international supervision”for a *decade* or so (who dat? NATO? UN? EU? China?). That is the proposed scenario. In which case the resulting political strife in Ukraine would seem to be enormous. “Who lost Crimea, Donbas, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya after all the heroes’ blood was shed winning them back?” Then what? 

That whole future scenario seems to be connected to a vastly different past reality than ours. And especially than Ukraine’s or Russia’s. It resumes that both countries will surrender a great degree of sovereignty to an unnamed international authority. One that could enforce all sorts of complex terms over many years. Does this seem highly likely? The most likely outcome? To me it looks like the outcome outsiders would like to accept. And having shed no blood, makes sense as they all have other crises to deal with.

Personally, I think Russia and Ukraine are likely to primarily set the terms of an end to the conflict. Depending and not until one has the made decisive impact on the battlefield, from which the other sees no recovery.  

Edited December 13, 2022 by NamEndedAllen

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

A bit uncharitable, he does reply later that NATO will be protected, and since Poland is part of NATO, it will be protected.

Mud!

 

? I was only saying those were his own opinions, not, as charged, the German government’s position! I thought that was a bit of an overreach. 

[Ultradave]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

My dad is 70+, hill walks every week and has had a very active, outdoors life (dairy farmer). He can keep pace cross-country with my older brother, who himself is a goddamn Longshanks. Heart like an ox. 

I'm 66 and a cancer survivor. I still run 4 times a week, bike, and swim at the Y. Took a bit to get back to seriousness after chemo but feeling strong now. One thing they told me was that they see that people who are in good health and good shape have the fewest issues handling chemo. Gotta' say I'm glad I WAS in good shape because chemo was a b1tch. Don't recommend. Zero stars out of 5.

My wife is also a runner. She's 68 and looks like she's about 50. Our ultra running days are behind us but I can't stop running. 

Dave

[NamEndedAllen]

1 minute ago, Ultradave said:

I'm 66 and a cancer survivor. I still run 4 times a week, bike, and swim at the Y. Took a bit to get back to seriousness after chemo but feeling strong now. One thing they told me was that they see that people who are in good health and good shape have the fewest issues handling chemo. Gotta' say I'm glad I WAS in good shape because chemo was a b1tch. Don't recommend. Zero stars out of 5.

My wife is also a runner. She's 68 and looks like she's about 50. Our ultra running days are behind us but I can't stop running. 

Dave

Rock on, Dave!

[paxromana]

6 hours ago, Butschi said:

The permanent members with veto powers are there solely for one reason: Not because they are peaceful or take responsibility. No. They were given that power (or took it) because they had nukes.

In 1945 when the UN was set up the only state to have nukes was tyhe USA.

The UK, French, USSR and Republic of China were given seats on the Security Council under the prior definition of 'Great Power" going back to even before the Congress of Vienna, which was a Great TERRITORIAL Power ... the amount of land (including colonies) they controlled ... it wasn't even economic power.

[Zeleban]

We continue...

In the enemy defense area immediately north of the city of Svatovo, that is, in the direction of Nizhnyaya Duvanka:

- the region of Vladimirovka - Sofiyivka - Oborotnovka ... The 119th Rifle Regiment of the 1st AK is deployed here with all its 3rd battalions. The regiment was at one time transferred from the south to stop the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Lower Duvanka. He was removed from a direction that was very disastrous for him, because at one time he "performed" in the Soledar area, where he was noticeably "stormed" ... But this time he was no longer thrown into suicidal frontal counterattacks, but ordered to "rest" (become on the defensive) and "keep under any circumstances" and prevent the AFU from entering Nizhnyaya Duvanka".

 

And, it seems, over time, they simply forgot about it ... Because for the "stability" of these "mobics" at one time, they reinforced the fully reinforced battalion of the 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Guards TA deployed in the Vladimirovka region. But the Russian command is clearly in vain they forgot about this regiment, hoping for the imaginary stability of their motorized riflemen ... After all, the Armed Forces of Ukraine clearly did not forget who, how and in what composition is trying to hold the area west of Nizhnyaya Duvanka.

 

- the region of the long-suffering Kolomyychikha - here the Russian command concentrated, perhaps, the most powerful tactical group of the entire Svatovsky defense region. Formally, this is 2 BTGr of the 12th and, respectively, the 13th TR of the 4th TD (yeah, the same Kantemirovskaya, named after Yuri Andropov). In reality, these two tank BTGrs together account for no more than 40 serviceable tanks. Therefore, here it is worth talking not about 2 tank BTGr, but about 1, but "reinforced" ... So this "terrible" tank group in reality does not look so scary anymore.

 

- in addition, in the same direction, a whole series of "shock" enemy units is deployed in the triangle Kuzemovka - Naugolnoe - Zmievka - BTGr of the 423rd MRR of the 4th TD of the 1st Guards. TA, 204th Rifle Regiment of the mobilization reserve of the 2nd Army Corps, 1 more BTGr of the 10th TR of the 6th MRD of the 3rd Army Corps, 1 motorized rifle company from the consolidated BTGr of the 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th CAA,

2 battalions of the 346th MRR of the territorial troops and another tank company from the 10th TP of the 6th Motor Rifle Division of the 3rd AK. In this regard, it is worth saying that although the units of the territorial troops and the Luhansk-Bombas "mobics", these are mainly "light infantry" without heavy weapons and equipment, but they still clearly add "masses" for enemy attacks ... Especially when acting as infantry cover for "friendly" tanks.

Over the past couple of days, this enemy tactical grouping has been very persistently trying to move our forward units away from the R-07 road, or even beyond it. Also, this group, together with the "forgotten regiment" of Donetsk "mobiks" and units of the 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade, repeatedly tried to drive our units out of the area of Kislovka and Kotlyarovka (which looks quite logical, because this, in fact, is a bridgehead protruding to the east, aimed at Nizhnyaya Duvanka and, therefore, on Svatovo ...).

 

That is, this entire group northwest of Svatovo is very active and aggressive... But so far, it's all to no avail... And, most likely, they will be able to ensure the "inviolability" of Lower Duvanka and the Preobrazhennoye only as long as The Armed Forces of Ukraine will not take this interesting district seriously... And they, sooner or later, will do just that.

 

But while the above-mentioned "Russian knights" are jumping out of their pants to demonstrate to the "high command" their transcendent aggressiveness and readiness to attack in any place, in any situation and in any composition ... They are digging the ground with their hooves.

 

It's enough for today.

Tomorrow we will continue... Let's talk specifically about Svatovo and the reserves that the enemy has deployed in the tactical and partially operational-tactical rear in the Starobelsky direction.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

in total, the enemy concentrated here up to 22-24 thousand personnel, and this figure continues to grow.

Do we have any idea of how much force the UA has in that area.? The info might be impossible to get or publish on the internet. If so, it's understandable.

[FancyCat]

 

[sburke]

44 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

My wife is also a runner. She's 68 and looks like she's about 50. Our ultra running days are behind us but I can't stop running. 

Dave

I use an elliptical.  Allows me to zone out when exercising.  Wife calls it pseudo running... she used to do half marathons so really thumbs her nose at me.