How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Gather round everybody!  I have some shocking news!  Germany is reneging on its pledge to meet it's 2% GDP defense spending requirement.  Sheesh, just when we started to give them some good press for the Gepards.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-backtracks-on-defense-spending-promise-warns-about-delays-ukraine-war/

Steve

[MSBoxer]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Gather round everybody!  I have some shocking news!  Germany is reneging on its pledge to meet it's 2% GDP defense spending requirement.  Sheesh, just when we started to give them some good press for the Gepards.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-backtracks-on-defense-spending-promise-warns-about-delays-ukraine-war/

Steve

I saw this yesterday and had the same thought "Well that did not last long"

[Kinophile]

9 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

A bit difficult to see on the photo because of the lighting. Could just be a crack that splits off a very smooth piece.

But I guess it could also be some kind of internal metal pyramid with a concrete covering. I just think it would take way longer to produce large numbers of those. But they might be less heavy and easier to transport.

See my post above about why that might be...beneficial...

[womble]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

some kind of internal metal pyramid with a concrete covering. I just think it would take way longer to produce large numbers of those

Not sure it would. Concrete in large blobs takes a while to cure, and you'd have to wait to tip each batch out of some pretty significant shuttering. Half-assed welding of hollow mild steel sheet pyramids would be pretty fast and either hand-plastering some concrete on the outside, or using the steel as the inners for wooden moulds could be pretty quick, relative. And as has been pointed out, the weight and volume savings for deployment would be very significant indeed. Cost-wise, I'm pretty sure that much steel is more expensive than the concrete, though maybe not much more expensive than the rebar needed to do the task properly.

[Bulletpoint]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

See my post above about why that might be...beneficial...

Yeah, but it only makes sense to be corrupt if you can save money. Replacing a ceramic plate with a piece of wood definitely gives you savings you can embezzle. But making dragon teeth hollow seems like it would take much longer and cost more money.

Looking at it again, maybe there's some metal plate inside the pyramid serving as an anchor for the metal loop for lifting the "tooth"?

Shrug. I guess we'll have to wait and see. I'm sure once the Ukrainians overrun the "Putin Line", they will make sure to stop and take pics of those things if they are fake inside.

[Kinophile]

30 minutes ago, womble said:

Cost-wise, I'm pretty sure that much steel is more expensive than the concrete, though maybe not much more expensive than the rebar needed to do the task properly.

Yes, good steel is.

But Komrad Col. General Korruptovich is more interested in his mate Ivan's "specially sourced" steel. That Ivan happens to own a trash dump/breakers yard is just a happy coincidence.

[hcrof]

The light is bad but it almost looks like they made the thing out of plywood then did a skim coat of concrete!! If that is true then just wow...

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

Two questions to ponder:

1. Is there any semi-significant positives for Russia continuing this war outside of ego and pride?  Any material/financial resource benefits have and continue to be stripped and the cost of recouping those potential benefits goes up every day.   Ego and pride--that's all I got.  Virtually every other outcome gets worse the longer this continues--including their prospects for whatever they may consider a "victory."

2. Prigozhin's motives and actions intrigue me.  Yes, power corrupts.  But maybe there's more to it.  Could his time in prison resulting in him, supposedly, being labeled a "cock" be driving his actions?  Some type of retribution and proving himself to those in that community?  If his motives are primarily emotional then his actions would be more difficult to decipher and predict.  Maybe he's just bat**** crazy--which makes him dangerous to both the Ukrainians AND to anyone in the Russian prison system.

 

To question 1 I would add “identity”.   As we have discussed here the one thing Russia cannot tolerate is an identity crisis - losing this war could trigger a fatal one.

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

To question 1 I would add “identity”.   As we have discussed here the one thing Russia cannot tolerate is an identity crisis - losing this war could trigger a fatal one.

The simplest answer to the question of "what's in it for Russia to continue" is that a) it still has the power to and b) the main actors in control of the government can't see any better outcomes in doing so. Much of the analysis focuses on the second condition but given the realistic limits to Russian capability at some point the first condition will determine outcomes regardless of anyone's decision making process. 

[A Canadian Cat]

Earlier today someone used the phrase "civilian Girkin" and it reminded me I wanted to ask does anyone know the status of @Grigb? We haven't heard from him in a long time. I don't think I missed any earlier posts about him. Anyone have an idea?

His profile pages says he last posted Oct 10th and last visited Nov 6th.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Gather round everybody!  I have some shocking news!  Germany is reneging on its pledge to meet it's 2% GDP defense spending requirement.  Sheesh, just when we started to give them some good press for the Gepards.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-backtracks-on-defense-spending-promise-warns-about-delays-ukraine-war/

Steve

So this is something I have been mulling for some time - reverse political effect.  So 5-EYES has China, the US has basically pulled us all in and said “pick a side, now.”  And look we here in Canada have a new bolder Indo-Pac policy.  So our end of things is going to stay interesting.

In NATO and Europe specifically, the truth is that Russia is getting destroyed. The scary Rus threat bear turned out to be a half starved mangy thing now covered in it own poop.  A small power is handing them their behinds.  This opens the door for some serious political wiggle room.  The greasier political operators are going to figure out that Russia won’t be a serious threat for years - unless it totally collapses, of course.  Bad Russkies, shame on you, symbolic sanctions will continue but a whole lot of political leaders are really hope this headache would just go away.

 So with a toothless Russian threat the game is going to become for some “look like we are doing something, without really doing anything…as cheaply as possible.”  And a lot of politicians are really freakin good at this. So we will likely see beefing up in the Baltics and some very loud defence spending announcement followed be weasel delays and slow rolls.  I can’t wait to what happens when the bill for Ukraine reconstruction comes due.

Edited December 6, 2022 by The_Capt

[Billy Ringo]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

To question 1 I would add “identity”.   As we have discussed here the one thing Russia cannot tolerate is an identity crisis - losing this war could trigger a fatal one.

If they want their ego, pride and identity validated and praised,  just claim the Russians the Winners of the 2022 Ukraine Grand Military Games and give them a big trophy and a victory parade!!! Medals for everyone--big huge brightly colored medals!!!  Hell, build 'em a monument they can show off to all of their friends that they are the undisputed champions!!! Tell 'em whatever they want to hear, but just go home and leave Ukraine to the Ukrainians.

I'm only half kidding.  (Sorry for the rant, I'm just struggling to figure out why an entire country thinks and acts like a 15 year old boy going through puberty.  Thinking that any perceived slight must be challenged.)

 

[Yet]

these Dwagon teef are not weak just because of bad mixing, that cracks concrete long term or under extreme pressure, not delaminate it.

probably also not made out of steel, first it would be stupid beyond RU measures as it is expensive, intensive production and anyone who went to secondary school as well as any construction worker can tell that steel expands and shrinks by temperature much more than concrete.

also hollow plywood construction and polystyreen are mentioned, but we see armored vehicles 'bumping' over it, not just crushing it as if it never was there at all.

my guess is (solid) recycled plastic material which is also being used for street furniture. Covered by and unattached to a way too thin layer of concrete. (possibly ordered by Kinophile's general corruptovic)

Edited December 6, 2022 by Yet
spelling & clarity

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Billy Ringo said:

If they want their ego, pride and identity validated and praised,  just claim the Russians the Winners of the 2022 Ukraine Grand Military Games and give them a big trophy and a victory parade!!! Medals for everyone--big huge brightly colored medals!!!  Hell, build 'em a monument they can show off to all of their friends that they are the undisputed champions!!! Tell 'em whatever they want to hear, but just go home and leave Ukraine to the Ukrainians.

I'm only half kidding.  (Sorry for the rant, I'm just struggling to figure out why an entire country thinks and acts like a 15 year old boy going through puberty.  Thinking that any perceived slight must be challenged.)

 

I think it is deeper than that.  They cannot lose to Ukraine - to do so would show all the cracks in the foundation of a nation that has been inherently unstable since the fall of the Czar.  So this war started as a demonstration of power intended to push NATO back and shore up an internal narrative - Putin has not been subtle in his speeches on this point.  To lose now would likely break them. This would be like the US invading Mexico and getting crushed, pretty damaging to the whole internal framework on a lotta levels.

So now they stuck their heads into a hornets nest and can’t get out.  If it wasn’t for the nuclear arsenal and all the death and destruction it would be hilarious.  What is bad is that I do not think Russia knows how to lose this war and suddenly the West has to figure it out for them so we don’t go down really bad paths.

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Gather round everybody!  I have some shocking news!  Germany is reneging on its pledge to meet it's 2% GDP defense spending requirement.  Sheesh, just when we started to give them some good press for the Gepards.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-backtracks-on-defense-spending-promise-warns-about-delays-ukraine-war/

Don't read too much into it. That is actually not "new" news (at least here).
The procurement of the Bundeswehr (the "BAAINBw" - Bundesamt für Ausrüstung, Informationstechnik und Nutzung der Bundeswehr) is just a total **** up. They are simply not able to spend all that money.

Our minister of defense is also not the best suited for the job (to put it mildly). But at least she is moving stuff in the right direction, though not with the right speed.

The money has been agreed upon and is through the Bundestag. It is bookmarked for the Bundeswehr and can't be used otherwise. So that is not weaseling out, just incompetence.

[Yet]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What is bad is that I do not think Russia knows how to lose this war and suddenly the West has to figure it out for them so we don’t go down really bad paths.

sooo..

So the west boils the frog slow enough not to escalate nuclear and to give Moscow time to find an alternative not to shatter into uncontrolled chaos. But boils it fast enough to make it clear that winning the war is not an option. 

...thats what you mean?

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Yet said:

sooo..

So the west boils the frog slow enough not to escalate nuclear and to give Moscow time to find an alternative not to shatter into uncontrolled chaos. But boils it fast enough to make it clear that winning the war is not an option. 

...thats what you mean?

Bingo.  This is basically like trying to talk a suicidal jumper off a ledge while they hold a hostage.  Except the hostage is gnawing the jumpers arm off.

I can only imagine the people working on how to give Russia a just-soft-enough-landing but demonstrates the consequences of stepping out of line, remove Putin and enough of his cancerous cronies, support new Russian leadership with less blood on hands and may not drive the country off a cliff for a little bit at least, and figure out what a path to post-war renormalization looks like.  While also selling Ukraine reconstruction.

Now that is one messy problem set.

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Yet said:

sooo..

So the west boils the frog slow enough not to escalate nuclear and to give Moscow time to find an alternative not to shatter into uncontrolled chaos. But boils it fast enough to make it clear that winning the war is not an option. 

...thats what you mean?

I remain concerned that this approach assumes a finer degree of control than we actually have. It is also getting a lot of Ukrainians killed. But maybe it is the least bad available? Hitting the airfields with only one or two drones seems like a case in point. It is more of a message than anything else.

Edit:  cross posted to the minute with The_Capt.

Edited December 6, 2022 by dan/california

[womble]

I think the West joining in with more earnest would be the trigger that Putin needs to capitulate and remain in charge. He can't lose to Ukraine, but he can perhaps, spin an "honourable surrender" to the "overwhelming force" of NATO. Even to the point of withdrawing from Ukraine (including Crimea) entirely.

It'd be kindof a one sided surrender, as he wouldn't be able to go down the "reparations and repatriation of the abducted"  route (though he would pretty much have to return the vast majority of the POWs Russia is holding). So he'd declare defeat-as-(moral)-victory, pull back over the border and hope that would be enough for the psy-operatives to swing a route to the cessation of sanctions and return to status-quo-ante (without Russians in the wrong country).

Hopefully the resolve would remain, now that the traumatic severing of the NG umbilical is pretty much a  Done Thing, for sanctions to remain until someone in Russia gets their act together to hand over all the frellin' criminals to The Hague and actually do some material apologising (though hopefully all the kleptocrats' billions will already have been seized and turned over to the reconstruction effort.

Perhaps this is a contributory cause to the lines that NATO have set for aid to Ukraine. They want Ukraine to beat Russia without "too much help", so that the "we lost to perfidious NATO" line cannot be more strongly pushed, and Putin has to go as part-and-parcel of whatever collapse eventually causes the Russians to give up and go home. And perhaps Ukraine is in  (private) agreement that a Russia that "gets away with it" (which just clearing off with their tails between their legs with a semi-credible justification would constitute) is just a threat for further down the road. Perhaps the theatre of "Give us long range rockets" "No, we don't want you crippling Russian infrastructure, however justified it may be," to-and-fro is political theatre.

[Kinophile]

37 minutes ago, IanL said:

Earlier today someone used the phrase "civilian Girkin" and it reminded me I wanted to ask does anyone know the status of @Grigb? We haven't heard from him in a long time. I don't think I missed any earlier posts about him. Anyone have an idea?

His profile pages says he last posted Oct 10th and last visited Nov 6th.

Bump.

Anyone?

[MikeyD]

Germany long ago eschewed a 'guns and butter' government spending policy in favor of a 'butter and more butter' policy. I recall circa 2015 it was said the Donbas 'rebels' had a larger active tank force than the Bundeswehr did. I didn't really expect Germany to abruptly reverse course and become Europe's 'arsenal for democracy', especially with a global recession looming.

About Russian sanctions, winter and conscription. We've seen, on a smaller scale, how badly things can snowball in a crisis. Remember the great toilet paper shortage of 2020? When the population starts to panic keeping store shelves stocked becomes an impossible task, even in the best of conditions. Also, lets recall the Covid distribution bottleneck. When truckers disappear goods stop getting distributed. Now replace the word 'Covid' with the word 'conscription' and imagine the problems Russia has created for itself.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So this is something I have been mulling for some time - reverse political effect.  So 5-EYES has China, the US has basically pulled us all in and said “pick a side, now.”  And look we here in Canada have a new bolder Indo-Pac policy.  So our end of things is going to stay interesting.

In NATO and Europe specifically, the truth is that Russia is getting destroyed. The scary Rus threat bear turned out to be a half starved mangy thing now covered in it own poop.  A small power is handing them their behinds.  This opens the door for some serious political wiggle room.  The greasier political operators are going to figure out that Russia won’t be a serious threat for years - unless it totally collapses, of course.  Bad Russkies, shame on you, symbolic sanctions will continue but a whole lot of political leaders are really hope this headache would just go away.

 So with a toothless Russian threat the game is going to become for some “look like we are doing something, without really doing anything…as cheaply as possible.”  And a lot of politicians are really freakin good at this. So we will likely see beefing up in the Baltics and some very loud defence spending announcement followed be weasel delays and slow rolls.  I can’t wait to what happens when the bill for Ukraine reconstruction comes due.

Totally agree.  Unless Russia suddenly changes into a stable and non-hostile country it will continue to be a threat for a long time.  BUT!  It isn't an immediate large scale threat for at least a couple of years.  I think Germany figures it can keep up its policy of pushing off dealing with its crumbling military infrastructure for the next government.  Unfortunately, this has been going on for a LONG time and their forces are suffering hugely.  The article I linked to mentioned some of the immediate problems they have right now that aren't being addressed.

I've said this many times before... NATO should mandate each nation provide specific units, not an arbitrary budget.  Germany could be tasked with some heavy brigades, lift capabilities, small naval patrols, and a couple air wings.  Because, realistically, how much are they really ever going to need at one time?  The problem the Germans have now is they are attempting to look like a big military but fund it like a small one.  They should ask Russia how well that worked out for them.

Steve

[dan/california]

44 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Bump.

Anyone?

I got nothing, and to the best of my knowledge he never gave a twitter account or anything else. It is a real bummer, I miss having our very own custom translations.

 

[Battlefront.com]

56 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Bingo.  This is basically like trying to talk a suicidal jumper off a ledge while they hold a hostage.  Except the hostage is gnawing the jumpers arm off.

I can only imagine the people working on how to give Russia a just-soft-enough-landing but demonstrates the consequences of stepping out of line, remove Putin and enough of his cancerous cronies, support new Russian leadership with less blood on hands and may not drive the country off a cliff for a little bit at least, and figure out what a path to post-war renormalization looks like.  While also selling Ukraine reconstruction.

Now that is one messy problem set.

I think Ukraine will insist on NATO membership in this case.  They should.  If I were them I'd accept *NO* compromise unless the West put troops in Ukraine as they have in the Baltics.  That sort of reassurance along with all of its territory back and a flood of reconstruction money... yeah, I think Ukraine might be flexible on some of the other thorny issues.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

54 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Bump.

Anyone?

I think of him often, but I haven't a clue where he ducked off to.  My guess is he found himself being sucked into spending too much time here and decided he needed to quit cold turkey.  I wish him the best, but he is missed.

Steve