How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

The first organisms that secreted oxygen as a byproduct would like a word. 

Now that is an excellent example of the consequences of impacting one’s own environment in creating evolutionary pressure.  However, we seem somewhat unique, or at least in a smaller club, in our ability to create an artificial environment to drive our own evolution.  While at the same time impacting the natural environment around us - can’t wait to see the carbon footprint of this war.

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Read the Hyperion series, my friend, then tell me if there's any character in 3BP as remotely intriguing, humanist or layered as Col. Kassad.

Dan Simmons, now we are talking!

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, womble said:

maybe the Kremlin orter conscript some of the kleptocrats and let them pour their personal wealth into their units' log trains...

Well... Prig is already doing that with Wagner,  no? 

[Kinophile]

Just now, The_Capt said:

Dan Simmons, now we are talking!

Right!?  Holy crap,  The Fall just blew me away. And the Crucifiorm,  what an idea. The Tesla Forest! The Shrike! Kwatz! 

Even his understanding of military strategic deception, by the AIs, leading to catastrophic misallocation of Human forces....wow. 

3BP isn't remotely in Simmons wheelhouse,  it's in the bilge playing footsie with the dock rats. 

 

[Kinophile]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now that is an excellent example of the consequences of impacting one’s own environment in creating evolutionary pressure.  However, we seem somewhat unique, or at least in a smaller club, in our ability to create an artificial environment to drive our own evolution.  While at the same time impacting the natural environment around us - can’t wait to see the carbon footprint of this war.

Interestingly, I read many years ago that large wars often lead to extreme winters, Esp if campaigning began early and finished late, throwing a lot of particles, debris and aerosols into the atmosphere.

WW2 had some unprecedented winters, as did WW1.  Shorter wars like 1870 not so much. I don't know what the threshold is but I'd say the correlation is statistically significant. 

So it's possible this winter in UKR could be heavier than expected but,  with climate change, shorter. Then a very heavy rasputitsa from the excessive snow melt. 

A UKR winter offensive might be crucial to achieve more gains before a really bad spring shuts everything down for longer than usual. 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

The Engels strike supposedly used Tu-141 recon drones repurposed and armed. 

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1599815384865337345?t=5Q9EIKOJcruhSfshc6zGlg&s=19

[Beleg85]

11 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Fundamentally Russia has every resource it needs to survive and thrive, so it is the politically created perception of vulnerability and external threat that drives the aggressive push to subjugate the near abroad. An ideology constructed, maintained and expanded by a fascist/imperialist ideology whose true benefactors are the elite at the top (as with all fascist states).

I'm curious what non-propaganda literature is coming out of Russia these days...

True- this is not war for resources. Not even for merchant routes. Hell, difficult to tell what it is even for- Putin probably use broad terms of "Russia's dignity and place in the world", but it seems this whole absurd, bloody endevour is ultimately no more than empty phantom pain for lost empire. Purely subjective phenomena shared by very thin Kremlin elite circles.

[womble]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Well... Prig is already doing that with Wagner,  no? 

Yeah. He got ahead of the game a decade or more ago, getting the okay for an illegal mercenary company to establish itself with the Kremlin's (sub rasa) sanction. But he's "pushing from behind", AIUI, rather than being "encouraged" to provide for his own security at the front.

[Kinophile]

Angry ZSU.  Phone guy pans off immediately when the soldier taking photos raises his gun (butt first) and threatens a POW. 

Angry, energized, post-combat soldiers. Still, disciplined and obeying the rules.

[danfrodo]

9 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Read the Hyperion series, my friend, then tell me if there's any character in 3BP as remotely intriguing, humanist or layered as Col. Kassad.

Great point, Kinophile.  I read that back in my 20s, sounds like I need to give it a re-read, thx

[FancyCat]

 

[Yet]

the strikes at Engels and Saratov hurt RU, domestic RU support and were sweet for UA morale, as was the attack on the Sebasfleet, mil.airport on Krim and on the Kerch bridge. 

the bridge unfolded as a serious hit, but i wonder why UA didnt wait with these surprise attacks untill they can totally destroy the target while still having the act of surprise. 

this hit also hurts, especially short term, but it isnt devastating for RU in terms that that all bombers and facilities are destroyed. And the same counts for the krim airfield and the fleet (and i think that the bridge attack turned out pretty lucky in terms of damage done and duration that it is out of order). 

also all these attacks have not been called by UA officials. Could it be that there is some kind of half-attached (UA?) team developing drones and hitting with them without direct command from the UA generals?

[Rokko]

22 hours ago, Kinophile said:

They cant be in that dire straits that food rationing is a potential future thing...can they? I mean sure, sanctions are grinding in like dog **** into a white carpet, but Russia can feed itself.

I think?

I remember a post by grigb where he translated something said by "civilian Girkin" (Neyman or something?) about another consequence of Western sanctions being a lack of modern seeds for planting and the Russians, having neglected to develop any on their own, now having to resort to older types of seed with less yield. Maybe related?

[billbindc]

9 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Read the Hyperion series, my friend, then tell me if there's any character in 3BP as remotely intriguing, humanist or layered as Col. Kassad.

Or pretty much every significant character in Iain M. Banks. 

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

LMAO what an ironic farce 

That reads less a farce to me and more as a potential setup to him WIA/KIA. If nothing else, it’s a sign there is some very serious maneuvering going on in the power vertical and the Prighozhin column is less powerful than it may appear.

[sburke]

23 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

This drone tech get into the hands of non-state actors like terrorist organizations or any a**holes with a axe to grind.   Imagine ISIS or Al Queda smuggling several of these into a Central America country, the Caribbean islands or Cuba, where security might be a little lax for such things and then launching an attack on the mainland US.

If no one but me as thought of this possibility, there is too few people with an imagination in the world.  I have been thinking of this the past several days - if I was head of Cobra (a comic book terrorist organization) and I had access to this drone tech, what could I do with it?  The ramifications of what I came up with would keep you guys up at night.  And I am not the only smart guy in the room.

Here is your appetizer - cargo container ship loaded up with several hundred of these drones and sit off shore of whatever country and do your terrorist attack.   Sleep well tonight with that little thought of what is possible in the very near future....

you don't need to smuggle them in, just a 3d printer.

[Astrophel]

Not a war for resources?

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/28/ukraine-war-russia-resources-energy-oil-gas-commodities-agriculture/

This is an interesting read.  It is imo not a coincidence that the 2014 invasion took place as Ukraine was about to start exploiting their considerable oil and gas resources

Ukraine is also thought to have the largest deposits in Europe of minerals needed for batteries and other such components of the climate neutral economy - coincidentally in the direction where Wagner is throwing the conscripts.

 

[Kinophile]

22 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Or pretty much every significant character in Iain M. Banks. 

Oh for the win, for sure. 

Use of Weapons. The Player of Games. Against A Dark Background. Excession. Any of those Characters and worlds are orders of magnitude more thought out and developed than 3BP and its paper thin,  exposition spouting, laughably gender-biased nitwit-

I should stop. 

I stop. 

[A Canadian Cat]

On 12/2/2022 at 3:54 PM, Battlefront.com said:

On 12/2/2022 at 3:30 PM, The_Capt said:

And this hints at the shining city on the hill that all theorists are chasing - predictive analytics.  I am a grumpy old dog now and am skeptical it will happen in my lifetime, but it will happen. Someone is going to take all that data and be able to create predictive algorithms that actually work enough to give advantage.  These are already in use in marketing, social media and politics, there use in warfare is just starting to emerge.

The problem with predictive analytics is with is capturing the variability based on minute variations of individual engagements.  Take CM for example.  I think that we can all agree that we've got all the essential combat elements covered pretty well with physics based equations that reasonably reflect reality.  Picture time and money invested in more detailed accounting for emerging capabilities, such as UGVs and EW.  Now what?

To get meaningful data you have to run a single scenario thousands of times.  Given the hundreds, if not thousands, of permutations that can happen with equipment, terrain, weather, soft factors, operational constraints, ammo loads, etc. that's a huge amount of situations that have to be examined to know what is the optimal combination for a nation to shoot for in terms of armaments.  Pretty daunting, but I suppose it could be done with a major investment of time and money.

However, for the millions of runs through the thousands of scenarios hits yet another snag... tactical variability.  We CMers all know how extremely small slices of a larger battle can result in wildly different end results.  10 tanks advancing with infantry might produce dramatically different end results if a couple of tanks are knocked out before advancing across a field vs. after.  What happens if the infantry is stripped away in the first minute of the battle vs. remaining with the tanks 40 minutes later?  How would a real life commander alter his tactical battle plan after losing 1 tank vs. 2 tanks vs. 4 tanks?  All of this stuff can not be predetermined as it comes up during the course of a battle.  Someone is going to have to figure out how to assess what the cause is for each of these variations on outcome, because simply analyzing the end result doesn't inform much of anything without understanding how the end came about.

I don't think that predicting the outcome of tactical battles is where the value is. I mean someone would find it interesting but on the battlefield what is interesting is *where* those tactical battles are doing to happen and *whose* coming your way. If you know that then you can react before the battle happens and re-balance the fight in your favour.

For example: Attackers want to hit the defenders where they are weakest and arrange to have an overwhelming force locally. If the predictive AI could let the defender know where an attack is likely coming based on the enemy's troop movements etc then those defenders can deploy reinforcements *before* the battle is engaged and suddenly the attacker no longer has the overwhelming force they expected. Now local commanders have a much better chance in the tactical battle then they would have without the prediction of what's coming.

Yes, I'm a little behind on my forum reading so hopefully this hasn't already been discussed.

[akd]

BTR-4 ambushes T-80 at close range with ATGM (I think):
 

 

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, Astrophel said:

Not a war for resources?

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/28/ukraine-war-russia-resources-energy-oil-gas-commodities-agriculture/

This is an interesting read.  It is imo not a coincidence that the 2014 invasion took place as Ukraine was about to start exploiting their considerable oil and gas resources

Ukraine is also thought to have the largest deposits in Europe of minerals needed for batteries and other such components of the climate neutral economy - coincidentally in the direction where Wagner is throwing the conscripts.

 

Nah I suspect you're reading too much into the tea leaves, esp. Re Wagner/bakhmut. 

Opportunistic political land grab, motivated by cultural chauvinism and an unbridled ego seems more fitting.

If resources were the aim then by any measure Russian oligarchy would have economically raped the Donbass, hot cease fire or no. But they didn't, which implies that it was viewed as Putin's playground, his project and not for sharing. 

Putin has no interest in long term investment or economic exploitation of the Donbass - we know this because he has done othing to foster it. He views it as both a military and cultural front line, the bleeding edge of Ruski Mir,  not a plunderable national economic asset. 

[danfrodo]

14 hours ago, acrashb said:

On another note:

Russian military gear insufficient for harsh winters, leads to soldiers dying from hypothermia | Fox News

Cold-related deaths already.  Winter is Ukraine's friend.

Oh, and "caution, non-liberal site, enter at your own risk".

 

Definitely plays into confirmation bias for me as it upholds my belief that RU is going to have serious issues in the field this winter.  Given how badly RU has treated its troops, especially mobiks, I am having trouble seeing how they can hold a continuous line against UKR pressure when many of the sectors will be frozen, sick, malnurished men.  So very happy to see this report that says RU clothing & boots is inadequate via bad design.

[Simcoe]

On 12/4/2022 at 3:26 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, I agree with that.  I think Snowden believes the sunshines out of his backside and he completely overplayed his hand, no matter what the surrounding scenario might be.  Which is one reason I don't think he's smart enough to have pulled this all off on his own.  Unfortunately, we're unlikely to know the truth because Snowden isn't likely to provide it and the Russians aren't likely to fess up even under new management.

Steve

Why do we focus so much on the messenger rather than the message? Snowden doesn't matter. What matters is that unelected agencies have carte blanche to circumvent your rights and democracy. I guess nobody cares.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

 

Hmmm... maybe the speculation that these teeth aren't solid concrete is true.  A thin veneer over something else would do that.  At the very least it looks some were poorly mixed.  No way should concrete be flaking off like that.  The comparison picture to WW2 teeth makes that clear.

Steve

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Nah I suspect you're reading too much into the tea leaves, esp. Re Wagner/bakhmut. 

Opportunistic political land grab, motivated by cultural chauvinism and an unbridled ego seems more fitting.

If resources were the aim then by any measure Russian oligarchy would have economically raped the Donbass, hot cease fire or no. But they didn't, which implies that it was viewed as Putin's playground, his project and not for sharing. 

Putin has no interest in long term investment or economic exploitation of the Donbass - we know this because he has done othing to foster it. He views it as both a military and cultural front line, the bleeding edge of Ruski Mir,  not a plunderable national economic asset. 

We kinda beat up on this theory over the spring when this article was written - it came out around the same time as the bio labs.  Problem is that everything Ukraine has pales in comparison to what Russia already has.  Oil and gas was the main one but Ukraine has a small fraction of Russian oil and gas reserves.  This would be like attacking a neighbour for the change in their couch.  Then there is the cost of infrastructure repair and construction to get it out of the ground, on top of war damage.  And then finding people to work that infrastructure.

Once you add up all those costs the investment equation get pretty upside down very fast.  Now we know Russia was planning for a rapid zero-cost war, so maybe the extra resources were in the calculus, but it was not like Russia was short on any of this to the point the needed to grab them.  This one goes right up there with the Donbas being worth “20% of Ukrainian GDP” - it isn’t, more like 6-7%, they are actually pretty poor provinces.  And as to offshore, well considering they controlled the Crimea there were a lot better options to grabbing offshore oil than a land invasion.

Currently if one adds up the costs of this war on Russia, all those resources would take decades to recoup the damage, assuming you could find a market that didn’t take gross advantage of Russian isolation.  This is invading a neighbour’s home, lighting it on fire…the fire spreads to your house and you get life-altering injuries during the ensuing fight, you are alienated from the rest of the neighbourhood, lose your job and have bank assets ceased…all for the change in the neighbours couch.