How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[acrashb]

Don't know if "GENERALL SVR" is credible, but if so, bad day for Putin:

Telegram: Contact @generallsvr

 

 

[Zeleban]

The electricity situation in Irpen has become very difficult. For example, yesterday there was no light for a whole day. Therefore, in order to continue working (I work remotely), I decided to move for a while to my parents' apartment in Kriviy Rig. Here the situation with light is much better. On the way, I saw a column of FH70 howitzers being towed by Iveco trucks. It looked impressive.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Zeleban

[Kinophile]

@The_Capt

Following from his/her note, via Ukrainian Volunteer blog:

Quote

If they are getting the best satellite data the US has to offer (they likely are), and it is very good indeed when you are talking (mil) size units, then they know by movements, pre-positioning and transport hub activities not only what the Russians are doing, but when combined with other intel, what they are going to do. If you have the forces to action that,pl it is almost unbeatable.

When I say the “best sat data the US has to offer,” that is likely top tier 1 but washed data. Tier 2 they are likely getting mostly raw.

 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Don't know if "GENERALL SVR" is credible, but if so, bad day for Putin:

Telegram: Contact @generallsvr

 

 

My russian is a tad deficient, Acrashb -- would you summarize what this says?

[Pete Wenman]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

My russian is a tad deficient, Acrashb -- would you summarize what this says?

After all this time I would have thought you had worked out how to use google translate by now

Quote

Dear subscribers and guests of the channel! Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a very difficult day, which ended quite dramatically. Wednesday morning began for Putin with a depressing report on the state of the Russian economy and, as a result, a forecast of worsening the situation in the near future. The sanctions imposed on Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine have a heavy impact on the country's economy and the effect of these sanctions is growing and intensifying over time. The main problems in the Russian economy, according to the forecasts of the authors of the report, will come in the period of late spring - early summer of next year, and it is not possible to avoid a negative scenario today. It should be noted that the forecast was made without taking into account the possible announcement of general mobilization in the country and martial law, which Vladimir Putin has in his plans, which undoubtedly only worsens the forecasts.
In the afternoon, Putin was upset by the news from the front. Promises by the leadership of the military bloc to seize several settlements before the start of winter, including Bakhmut (called Artemovsk in reports to Putin) in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, were not realized. Moreover, yesterday the leadership of the military bloc was not ready to guarantee the president a significant advance on any sector of the front before the New Year. Putin was informed that the cold snap, which is predicted for early December in the Luhansk region, could be used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine for an offensive, and in this case, it would be very problematic to keep territories in the north-west of the region.
In the evening, Putin had a telephone conversation with President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The conversation touched upon plans for the future and the development of joint projects. No agreements were reached as a result of the conversation, or rather, they agreed to negotiate.
Truly dramatic events for Putin took place in the evening at his residence. Going down the stairs, Putin stumbled and fell to the fifth point, after which he fell on his side and slid down a couple of steps. The incident took place in front of the president's bodyguards, who quickly reacted and rushed to Putin's aid. Three security officers helped the president to get to the nearest sofa and called the doctors who are on duty at the residence. Medics arrived within a few minutes, but could not immediately examine the president. Putin suffers from oncology of the gastrointestinal tract, as a result of which he already experiences serious problems with digestion, and as a result of the fall, as it turned out, the main blow fell on the coccyx, which probably caused sharp pain, provoking involuntary defecation. If Putin used to wear special waterproof underwear with an absorbent effect, then recently he neglects these precautions, as it turned out in vain. Before the examination, the doctors escorted the president to the bathroom and helped to clean up, and at the same time conducted an initial examination. After a complete examination and examination, a bruise of the coccyx and soft tissues was diagnosed. Nothing critical, the president's health was stable closer to the night, he can move independently, complaints of pain in the coccyx when sitting are the only thing that worries Putin. At night he took painkillers. In the near future, an investigation will be carried out, which provoked the fall of the president. He wears special shoes, even at home with anti-slip surfaces, and the stairs in the residence are considered "safe". As it turns out, all precautions are in vain when nerves go to hell.

 

[Kinophile]

11 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

The electricity situation in Irpen has become very difficult. For example, yesterday there was no light for a whole day. Therefore, in order to continue working (I work remotely), I decided to move for a while to my parents' apartment in Kriviy Rig. Here the situation with light is much better. On the way, I saw a column of FH70 howitzers being towed by Iveco trucks. It looked impressive.

My sympatheties. Last winter in Toronto /Ontario we had a 3-5 day run of no power mid winter. Thank God for gas heating, plus we have a fireplace. Having a working chimney as Back up for winter outages was a deliberate factor in taking this place. Which is nuts,  when you think of it. A modern, well run city with no extreme events to really worry about ( quakes,  etc) yet having a functional fire pit was on my mind. And I'm in Forest Hill north! Fancy white person hood. 

The absence of power was unnerving,  esp. by D3

Edited December 2, 2022 by Kinophile

[Zeleban]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

My russian is a tad deficient, Acrashb -- would you summarize what this says?

looks like a banter over Putin. It is said that in the morning he was upset by the report on the Russian economy because of the sanctions. In the afternoon, he was upset by news from the front from the Lugansk region. And in the evening, Putin, having stumbled, fell on his *** and, in front of his personal guards, crap himself. It is associated with cancer of the internal organs

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Pete Wenman said:

After all this time I would have thought you had worked out how to use google translate by now

gosh, yes, that's embarrassing.  Point taken 

[Zeleban]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

A modern, well run city with no extreme events to really worry about ( quakes,  etc) yet having a functional fire pit was on my mind.

Definitely I would like to be in a place like this

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, Zeleban said:

Definitely I would like to be in a place like this

****ing Putin. 

[dan/california]

36 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Don't know if "GENERALL SVR" is credible, but if so, bad day for Putin:

Telegram: Contact @generallsvr

 

 

The number of people who would know about a fall in his private residence is not that large. The penalty for leaking this is beyond savage, so I have doubts about the details. The extremely bad condition of the economy and military are of course well known facts, so perhaps the author is indulging in a bit of embellishment.

[dan/california]

The_Capt has mentioned this possibility multiple times, not sure this one is actually explosive, but the intelligent and mobile anti tank mine draws ever closer.

[Huba]

Without doubt Ukraine has become a testing ground for various unmanned systems. I'm not sure if this was posted here before, but Germany is reportedly providing 14 of these robots (in an medevac/ transport version). I can see them being extremely useful for providing support to the guys on the very first line, where driving any bigger manned vehicle is extremely risky.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/12/02/germany-unmanned-vehicles-ukraine/

 

On a related note, I was just watching something about WW2 and V1 flying bomb was mentioned. Thinking of it, exactly how difficult and expensive would be to build something very similar, but GPS guided? With modern computer assisted design, a valveless pulse jet could probably be way more efficient than the original engine, with smaller warhead giving it a range in excess of 700km or more. Add a simple guidance module like in Shaheds, a regular 1000lb bomb as warhead, put it all in a simple body, add an off-the-shelf rocket booster or two to launch it. I bet you could have all of this at $100K or less. Mass produce the crap out of it. 
Any reason why it wouldn't be feasible? 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Huba

[NamEndedAllen]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

If they had ATACMS or the new even longer range missiles en masse they would extend that ersatz AirPower to strategic depths.

I will ask again, in this context, are there *any* further crimes against humanity, any lines to cross that Russia can do that will finally decide the USA and European Allies to provide this and other range-extending weapons? Anything? If not, do you agree that Russia can (and will) do anything at all to Ukraine’s population, cities, infrastructure, with no significant response/change in Allied support for Ukraine? 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

Now, you can reasonably reply that this thing will be firing PGM, so the rates will be neither high nor sustained, so wear on the platform will be negligible, which, sure I accept that technological hand-wave. Except why not just give those rounds to the gunners who already have the entire system for finding and killing things they can't see down to a 't'?

Very good points and the technological issues will have to be solved.  Makes me wonder what the UA have been doing because apparently they are already there.

The only reason I can think of to give tanks the job of direct-indirect fires is mobility.  Nothing in the artillery inventory can match the mobility of an MBT. So lateral battlefield mobility with a breakthrough option at medium ranges kinda sounds better fitting a tank - although as you point out not optimized.

I suspect the new heavy will be a hybrid solution that has mobility and survivability but can hit at 10km first round kills.  I also like the idea of heavy as the energy carrying platforms for light, particularly unmanned - so mothership concept.  Particularly if UAS are really just ammunition, then heavy can carry and project that ammunition - this is similar to the carriers in the maritime domain.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, sross112 said:

Indirect fires at 80+km. If both sides have these sorts of ranges with good ISR the FEBA is now 100+km wide? It is hard to wrap my mind around that big of a battlespace.

Sounds like we are definitely going to need a new CM engine.  Seriously, we almost broke the current one with the CMCW maps and those ranges are nowhere near what we are talking about here.

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

War has always been expensive, but it's also always been very profitable - at least for the winners. The USA has spent incredible amounts of money to remain the world's only superpower. So far, one could argue that it's paid off quite well for you.

I don't think the Russians are really getting much return on the countless billions they invested in their army though.

Thus demonstrating that in war as in politics, it isn’t always *just * the money that counts. 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

@The_Capt

Following from his/her note, via Ukrainian Volunteer blog:

 

And this hints at the shining city on the hill that all theorists are chasing - predictive analytics.  I am a grumpy old dog now and am skeptical it will happen in my lifetime, but it will happen. Someone is going to take all that data and be able to create predictive algorithms that actually work enough to give advantage.  These are already in use in marketing, social media and politics, there use in warfare is just starting to emerge.

[Rokko]

Just out of curiosity, I've played around with ChatGPT AI program today and at one point asked it the following question:

Quote

How would a war in the not too distant future likely play out, in which Russia attempts to invade Ukraine?

Below is the answer it replied with. Note that this AI has apparently been trained exclusively on data available up until the end of 2021, so it knows nothing of what really happened during the current year.

Quote

It is difficult to predict exactly how a hypothetical war between Russia and Ukraine would play out in the future, as there are many factors that could affect the course of such a conflict. However, based on the current state of military technology and geopolitical dynamics, it is possible to make some educated guesses about how such a war might unfold.

One potential scenario is that Russia would attempt to use its superior military capabilities, including its air and missile forces, to quickly overwhelm and neutralize Ukraine's military defenses. This could involve a combination of air and missile strikes, along with ground and naval operations, to isolate and destroy key military targets and seize control of key strategic locations in Ukraine.

Once Russia had established a foothold in Ukraine, it would likely attempt to use its superior military capabilities and logistical support to maintain control of the territory and suppress any resistance from Ukrainian forces. This could involve a combination of conventional military operations, irregular warfare tactics, and psychological operations to maintain control over the population and prevent the emergence of a united resistance.

In this scenario, it is likely that Ukraine would face significant challenges in defending against the Russian invasion. Ukraine's military is smaller and less well-equipped than Russia's, and it would struggle to compete with Russia's superior air and missile capabilities. Ukraine would also face significant logistical challenges in sustaining a prolonged conflict, and it would likely rely heavily on support from NATO and other international partners to help defend against the Russian invasion.

Overall, a hypothetical war between Russia and Ukraine in the not-too-distant future would likely be a complex and challenging conflict, with significant consequences for both countries and the broader international community.

It's basically a summary of the many and often incorrect assumptions and estimations about Russia's capabilities that were floating around before the war, although I do find it interesting that it accurately "predicts" how heavily Ukraine would have to rely on NATO support, especially since it was hardly guaranteed before the war that NATO would in fact end up supporting Ukraine as resolutely as it ended up doing.

Anyways, it's a fascinating tool and I encourage everyone to give it a spin:

https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt/

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And this hints at the shining city on the hill that all theorists are chasing - predictive analytics.  I am a grumpy old dog now and am skeptical it will happen in my lifetime, but it will happen. Someone is going to take all that data and be able to create predictive algorithms that actually work enough to give advantage.  These are already in use in marketing, social media and politics, there use in warfare is just starting to emerge.

The problem with predictive analytics is with is capturing the variability based on minute variations of individual engagements.  Take CM for example.  I think that we can all agree that we've got all the essential combat elements covered pretty well with physics based equations that reasonably reflect reality.  Picture time and money invested in more detailed accounting for emerging capabilities, such as UGVs and EW.  Now what?

To get meaningful data you have to run a single scenario thousands of times.  Given the hundreds, if not thousands, of permutations that can happen with equipment, terrain, weather, soft factors, operational constraints, ammo loads, etc. that's a huge amount of situations that have to be examined to know what is the optimal combination for a nation to shoot for in terms of armaments.  Pretty daunting, but I suppose it could be done with a major investment of time and money.

However, for the millions of runs through the thousands of scenarios hits yet another snag... tactical variability.  We CMers all know how extremely small slices of a larger battle can result in wildly different end results.  10 tanks advancing with infantry might produce dramatically different end results if a couple of tanks are knocked out before advancing across a field vs. after.  What happens if the infantry is stripped away in the first minute of the battle vs. remaining with the tanks 40 minutes later?  How would a real life commander alter his tactical battle plan after losing 1 tank vs. 2 tanks vs. 4 tanks?  All of this stuff can not be predetermined as it comes up during the course of a battle.  Someone is going to have to figure out how to assess what the cause is for each of these variations on outcome, because simply analyzing the end result doesn't inform much of anything without understanding how the end came about.

Oh., and the AI necessary to ensure that both sides are played through reasonably close to how Humans would handle things is daunting.  Because without AI the number of permutations aren't practical to capture to the extent necessary.  Any realism problems with the AI, therefore, can produce radically erroneous data to make decisions on.

Yesh, it really is a mess

The best that can be hoped for are very small, very targeted, very modest scenarios that are there to simply get a feel for a limited answer to a very narrow question.  That is something that is practical to do, but it then amounts to someone already thinking they know the answer and stress testing it to see how well it holds up.  Useful, but well short of the Holy Grail of Analytics that the Knights of the various shaped tables are seeking.

Steve

[kevinkin]

35 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Anything?

Attack a NATO member intentionally.

36 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

If not, do you agree that Russia can (and will) do anything at all to Ukraine’s population, cities, infrastructure, with no significant response/change in Allied support for Ukraine? 

No, Russian WMD would escalate the situation and, depending on the details, elicit a severe response on Russian soil.   

Least we forget: the number one grand strategic goal of the US and the West is to prevent the use of WMD. Even if the odds are very long, very few people living comfortably want to risk it. If you held a referendum after a 4 month trillion dollar add campaign, honestly weighing the benefits and risks associated with directly attacking Russia, the public would vote no 99 -1%.  One or both of the two items above would have to have happened first. Then you would have a closer race. Those is the deep state would vote 98-2%. And they are the ones in the know. There is a reason NATO has not flattened Russia, it would be so easy if those dang WMD were not part of the calculas 

[kraze]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

The electricity situation in Irpen has become very difficult. For example, yesterday there was no light for a whole day. Therefore, in order to continue working (I work remotely), I decided to move for a while to my parents' apartment in Kriviy Rig. Here the situation with light is much better. On the way, I saw a column of FH70 howitzers being towed by Iveco trucks. It looked impressive.

Yep, we ordered a petrol generator and Starlink here and gonna move to gf's parents' house in Cherkasy area so we can keep working. russians ruin everything

Edited December 2, 2022 by kraze

[dan/california]

39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The problem with predictive analytics is with is capturing the variability based on minute variations of individual engagements.  Take CM for example.  I think that we can all agree that we've got all the essential combat elements covered pretty well with physics based equations that reasonably reflect reality.  Picture time and money invested in more detailed accounting for emerging capabilities, such as UGVs and EW.  Now what?

To get meaningful data you have to run a single scenario thousands of times.  Given the hundreds, if not thousands, of permutations that can happen with equipment, terrain, weather, soft factors, operational constraints, ammo loads, etc. that's a huge amount of situations that have to be examined to know what is the optimal combination for a nation to shoot for in terms of armaments.  Pretty daunting, but I suppose it could be done with a major investment of time and money.

However, for the millions of runs through the thousands of scenarios hits yet another snag... tactical variability.  We CMers all know how extremely small slices of a larger battle can result in wildly different end results.  10 tanks advancing with infantry might produce dramatically different end results if a couple of tanks are knocked out before advancing across a field vs. after.  What happens if the infantry is stripped away in the first minute of the battle vs. remaining with the tanks 40 minutes later?  How would a real life commander alter his tactical battle plan after losing 1 tank vs. 2 tanks vs. 4 tanks?  All of this stuff can not be predetermined as it comes up during the course of a battle.  Someone is going to have to figure out how to assess what the cause is for each of these variations on outcome, because simply analyzing the end result doesn't inform much of anything without understanding how the end came about.

Oh., and the AI necessary to ensure that both sides are played through reasonably close to how Humans would handle things is daunting.  Because without AI the number of permutations aren't practical to capture to the extent necessary.  Any realism problems with the AI, therefore, can produce radically erroneous data to make decisions on.

Yesh, it really is a mess

The best that can be hoped for are very small, very targeted, very modest scenarios that are there to simply get a feel for a limited answer to a very narrow question.  That is something that is practical to do, but it then amounts to someone already thinking they know the answer and stress testing it to see how well it holds up.  Useful, but well short of the Holy Grail of Analytics that the Knights of the various shaped tables are seeking.

Steve

A voluntary database of any game file people wanted to submit would be a heck of a place to start. It would at least give you a bigger database to attempt to train the AI with. And yes i know that is a very small opening in very large, and very unfriendly thorn bush.

[NamEndedAllen]

39 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Attack a NATO member intentionally.

No, Russian WMD would escalate the situation and, depending on the details, elicit a severe response on Russian soil.   

Least we forget: the number one grand strategic goal of the US and the West is to prevent the use of WMD. Even if the odds are very long, very few people living comfortably want to risk it. If you held a referendum after a 4 month trillion dollar add campaign, honestly weighing the benefits and risks associated with directly attacking Russia, the public would vote no 99 -1%.  One or both of the two items above would have to have happened first. Then you would have a closer race. Those is the deep state would vote 98-2%. And they are the ones in the know. There is a reason NATO has not flattened Russia, it would be so easy if those dang WMD were not part of the calculas 

Thanks, Kevinkin-

I probably wasn’t clear enough on that point #1 - you refer to attack another country, not Ukraine. I am asking whether there is ANYTHING at all Russia can do to *Ukraine* that will convince the USA and European Allies to provide longer range weaponry to Ukraine.

Your second point I think relates to NATO attacking inside Russia, but that isn’t my question. It is bout supplying the long hoped for extended range weapons that would finally squeeze supply and support sources, including both air and ground launched missiles/Arty, or GLOC. Thus forcing invading Russian units within Ukraine to collapse or withdraw to Russia.    
 

So, “No, Russia can do anything it wishes WITHIN Ukraine (no matter how heinous)”?  Or are you implying Russia using WMD on Ukrainian soil would be the only trigger for changing the longer range weaponry ban?

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, acrashb said:

Don't know if "GENERALL SVR" is credible, but if so, bad day for Putin:

I thought "GENERALL SVR" is that promising new woman at CIA?