How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Colonel Denis Davydov, commander of NBC-regiment, probably 19th NBC regiment of 29th CAA, Eastern Military District, data of death unknown

NBC regiment equipped has heavy flamethrower company with 3 TOS-1A 

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Not quite. This is Russian state mythology - as if they came to wild steppes and brought there civilization and established cities. Partially this is true, but indeed all Russian cities "founded" in 18th century appeared not on emty place. 

On the place of Kherson since at least mid of 17th century (maybe and early) existed the town Bilhovychi or Belehovishche. It's nothing known about it and his population, except it was pointed on 17-18th century maps. And it name is Slavic (Ukrainian or Polish). The wide spaces of modern Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson oblasts in 17-18th centuries were under power of Budjak (or Akkerman) Horde, populated by Nogais - Turkic etnnic group, akin to Crimean Tatars. They were double vassals of Ottoman Empire and Crimean Khan. But very likely that in  theese steppes there was some symbiosys between Turks, Tatars and frontier people, cossacks and fugitives from Ukraine, who recognized their power in exhange to permission to settle here....

Probably turmoils of the end 17th century and further Russo-Turkish wars led to decline of Bilhovychy - this is unknown, on the maps of begining of 18th century this town already marked as "ruines". But Russians exactly here in previously settled place built initially St.Aleksandr Fort and further new city, named "in honor" of antique Khersones (now part of modern Sevastpol)

And this was everywhere in Black-Sea steppes. Russian had been conquering Tatars, Turkish cities and lands of Zaporozhian cossacks, eliminated and expalled population and initially settled there soldiers, workers and peasants (mostly from Ukriane) and later re-built theese cities on modern manner, giving them "Antique-Greek-like" names (Odessa, Kherson, Sevastopol, Mariupol, Nikopol), according to fasion of theese times - Catherine II and Potyomkin were fans of Ancient Greek culture. And removing by this old hystory of theese place, establishing own myth "we established theese cities, this is our land"

So Odesa - is fromer Turkish/Nogais fortress and port town Khadjibey (there is also version in 14-15 century it named Kotsiubiiv and was a southern port of Great Duсhy of Lithuania, but later has fallen in Tatarian hands). But indeed atique Odessos was on the place of modern Bulgarian Varna. 

Mykolaiv (Russain name Nikolayev) - was built on the place of likely Ukrainian/Tatarian town Vynohradna Krynytsia (or more polonized name Vinaradna Kricza - eng. "grape well"). The town in own turn was built on the place of old Lithuanian castle Vitovka

Sevastopol - former Tatarian harbour and city Akyar. But real Sevastopolis was on the place of modern Georgian Sukhumi in occupied Abkhazia

Nikopol - frormer Zaporozhian cossaks town Mykytyn Rih

Melitopol - Tatarian or Zaporozhian town Kyzyyar

Simferopol - Tatarian Aksmedzhit

And many, many other...   

And Greek settlements/towns around the Black Sea go all the way back to several hundred years BC. Indeed blockading Athens from Black Sea grain figured in several wars during antiquity. Athens could not feed itself from its local territory and was dependent on that grain.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pontic_Olbia#/media/File:Mykolaiv_province_physical_map.svg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cynossema

[Maciej Zwolinski]

So the Wagner prison recruitment drive has encountered an unexpected obstacle. NSFW content

 

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

They can hit only limited number of tagets whithin Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts with theese missiles

On top of that, this is the only RU system from this list that can be actively fought with by attacking the launchers.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

Slovakia delivers 30 BMP-1 in exchange for 15 Leo A2s

 

lol best value trade of the war so far

Edited November 29, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

HIMARS Hour

 

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, IanL said:

Of all the things that we have seen people predict and monitor the seemingly unending supply of Russian missiles is something I've been surprised by. Everything else in the war has gone about how reasonable people expected, except for the long range missile supply.

Here is one possible answer - repurposing:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/britain-says-russia-likely-removing-nuclear-warheads-missiles-firing-ukraine-2022-11-26/

[photon]

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Here is one possible answer - repurposing:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/britain-says-russia-likely-removing-nuclear-warheads-missiles-firing-ukraine-2022-11-26/

Yikes. In order for that to be anywhere in the neighborhood of a good idea you'd have to be very confident in your procedures for not accidentally lobbing a missile with a warhead still attached. Nothing I've seen suggests that the Russia armed forces should be confident in that particular way.

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, photon said:

Yikes. In order for that to be anywhere in the neighborhood of a good idea you'd have to be very confident in your procedures for not accidentally lobbing a missile with a warhead still attached. Nothing I've seen suggests that the Russia armed forces should be confident in that particular way.

I am envisioning a bad novel scenario where the Russians leave the warhead on one of these missiles, but does not arm it. it lands gently in a swamp, and the Ukrainians become the proud owner of one almost working warhead. I am sure this would make everyone much calmer...

[Seminole]

10 hours ago, Splinty said:

Unless there are enough "No war at any cost" Democrats to equal the "No more money for foreign conflicts" Republicans.

I don't expect that to happen before the public turns.  How many votes do you think the 'caucus' of AOC and MTG anti-war types actually add up to?

Americans eventually voted in Ike to end the war. 

Not to win it.  To end it.

Wouldn't be a surprise to see that calculus arise again two years from now.

If I was looking for the most 'favorable' outcome for the PNAC crowd, it would be a new DMZ in Europe.  Which makes me afraid that's where this ends up.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Seminole

[paxromana]

36 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Americans eventually voted in Ike to end the war. 

Not to win it.  To end it.

Not an American and my knowledge of US political history is limited, but that comes as news to me ... I understood that Eisenhower faced down serious opposition to peace in the administration. Which, of course, isn't the same as public support one way or the other.

Is there any polling data from the period which shows that Ike was specifically elected to end the Korean War? I'd be interested in checking it out.

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I am envisioning a bad novel scenario where the Russians leave the warhead on one of these missiles, but does not arm it. it lands gently in a swamp, and the Ukrainians become the proud owner of one almost working warhead. I am sure this would make everyone much calmer...

There are, AIUI, anti-tamper devices for just such an eventuality ... of course, Russia!

However, what good would one nuke be vs Russia's thousands of them?

And getting it to work and then finding a missile to mount it on would be nontrivial.

I can't see it being a starter ... YMMV

[FancyCat]

Big difference between the Korean War and this war....mainly that Americans are dying in the former, and the latter, are merely throwing spare change at Ukraine. 

 

 

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I am envisioning a bad novel scenario where the Russians leave the warhead on one of these missiles, but does not arm it. it lands gently in a swamp, and the Ukrainians become the proud owner of one almost working warhead. I am sure this would make everyone much calmer...

Didn't Peter Sellers star in the movie version of that in 1959?

 

[Canada Guy]

There was a rumour that an American retired general was a member of the Wagner group.

www.barrons.com/amp/news/ex-us-marine-general-among-russia-s-wagner-mercenaries-founder-01669401607?espv=1

Is there any evidence and would this be illegal? I imagine that there are NATO member former soldiers in Wagner group but could they be prosecuted if they ever returned home (or tried in absentia?)

Edited November 30, 2022 by Canada Guy

[Sojourner]

16 minutes ago, Canada Guy said:

There was a rumour that an American retired general was a member of the Wagner group.

As well as a retired US Army colonel doing PR.

[NamEndedAllen]

14 hours ago, acrashb said:

One assumes this is a joke, but for clarity - it could not be more wrong.  The US' foibles loom larger on the world stage because they matter more; Canada's foibles get regional coverage, partly because of the much smaller economy and partly because Canada seems non-threatening to other parts of the world and so is discounted.  

But 'reason' is in short supply with our leaders and commentariat as much as elsewhere.  If the US seems more 'out there', in addition to the above, and to deliberate gridlock built into the US political system, there is the issue of gerrymandering, a pox on democracies everywhere.  Schwarzenegger's core legacy in California is, and will be seen as, attempts to dampen this.

Back to lurking.

Wait! Did your loser voters storm your Capitol, violently trying to overthrow your Parliament in whatever analogous function to ratifying your free and fair leadership election? With several dead, many wounded, and your Parliament building trashed?  No? End of THAT debate!
 

[Splinty]

18 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Wait! Did your loser voters storm your Capitol, violently trying to overthrow your Parliament in whatever analogous function to ratifying your free and fair leadership election? With several dead, many wounded, and your Parliament building trashed?  No? End of THAT debate!
 

Please not here.

[OldSarge]

57 minutes ago, Canada Guy said:

There was a rumour that an American retired general was a member of the Wagner group.

www.barrons.com/amp/news/ex-us-marine-general-among-russia-s-wagner-mercenaries-founder-01669401607?espv=1

Is there any evidence and would this be illegal? I imagine that there are NATO member former soldiers in Wagner group but could they be prosecuted if they ever returned home (or tried in absentia?)

For the US, as long as the country a citizen is fighting for isn't engaged in hostilities toward the US then it is legal. There are several notable examples:  Lincoln Battalion (Spanish civil war), Kosciuszko Squadron (Polish-Soviet war), The Flying Tigers (China-Burma pre-WWII), Eagle Squadron (during BoB). The US Government doesn't encourage or sanction it though.

Edited November 30, 2022 by OldSarge

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Splinty said:

Please not here.

Yup, except I'm not saying please.  That implies there is a choice.

Steve

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, OldSarge said:

For the US, as long as the country a citizen is fighting for isn't engaged in hostilities toward the US then it is legal. There are several notable examples:  Lincoln Battalion (Spanish civil war), Kosciuszko Squadron (Polish-Soviet war), The Flying Tigers (China-Burma pre-WWII), Eagle Squadron (during BoB). The US Government doesn't encourage or sanction it though.

Good point, though a couple minor detail points:

Although the Eagle Squadrons were formed at the height of the Battle of Britain, they were not operational until early 1941. Numerous American pilots fought in the Battle of Britain, but they were serving in regular predominantly British-manned or mixed nationality RAF squadrons. Also, the American Volunteer Group (Flying Tigers) are the exception to that last statement - their formation was directly authorized by President Roosevelt and organized by the U.S. government. I suspect the Eagle Squadrons also had at least tacit approval from Roosevelt and others within the U.S. government and, like the AVG, they were reabsorbed into the USAAF after the United States formally entered World War II.

Edit 2: Also, similar to the Eagle Squadrons missing the Battle of Britain, although the AVG were organized before the Second Sino-Japanese War became part of WWII, contrary to the John Wayne movie, they did not see combat until very shortly after Pearl Harbor.

Edited November 30, 2022 by G.I. Joe
Changed once to after: the process took months.

[FancyCat]

A very lovely video laying out the terrain of Eastern Ukraine including history from both WWII and presently to explain why offensives have occurred where they have in Kharkiv and rest of the fronts. Broad overview but I like how the ww2's 4 battles of Kharkiv are explained why and how they occurred with visuals and it dovetails nicely with how Kharkiv and the urban Donbas factors now.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by FancyCat

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[Kinophile]

RUSI higher level overview of the UKR and RUS performances in the war so far. 

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022

Jack Watling et al. 

Full Pdf here. 

Quote

Although critical to competitiveness by providing situational awareness, 90% of UAS employed are lost

I knew it was high,  but I thought maybe 75%.  So yah, Drones functionally = munitions. 

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Kinophile

[Peregrine]

5 hours ago, chrisl said:

Didn't Peter Sellers star in the movie version of that in 1959?

 

Tom Clancy novel too. Israel lost a nuke I think.