How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MikeyD]

Not to be glib, but every spy movie and every superhero movie has that scene where the hero (or villain) 'pretends' to surrender then strikes when their guard is down. Its that 'Captain America in the elevator' scene. Its John Maclean in Die Hard. Unfortunately, all the dumb guys have seen all those movies and think its a thing to try in real life. Combat ops isn't over until after the last surrendered soldier has his hands tied and his body properly searched.

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

Do you (Ukrainians here on this forum) realize how this whole affair is beginning to aquire a bitter taste for some of us westerners?

I wouldn't say bitterness, but rather frustration.  Ukraine wants to join the western bloc and has had a massive amount of support even if many of us feel there should be more. That however means being held to the fire when standards go awry. Ukraine isn't the first to feel there is a somewhat double standard when compared to their adversary, but what their adversary does is not the standard... and with good reason.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

And remember, all of us here are rooting for Ukraine, so when we criticize this kind of behavior it is out of concern for Ukraine.

Correct.  There are certain behaviors that the West abhors.  Russia is on the bad list because of that behavior and the West is expending huge amounts of resources to destroy Russia.  If Ukraine behaves the same way Russians do then guess what?  It gets on the same list with Russia.  Now, how smart is that?  Not smart at all.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

It clearly wasn't. 

It was in the final stage,  sure,  possibly. But until those POWs were secured nothing was finished.  That's why the UKR troops were pointing weapons at them- because risk still existed and with that stupid nutjob, QED. 

Until your enemy is tied up,  sitting down and possibly also blindfolded they are still a potential threat.  History is replete with surrendering soldiers turning on their captors at the last second. Surrendering is dicey for both sides.

Plus,  fighting an enemy as cruel,  ruthless and rules-adverse as the Russian army means UKR absolutely no cannot trust them an inch. 

If you mean the active combat stage had finished and surrender stage was occurring,  that is too vague a transition to apply here. The situation was not fully resolved, there were still armed Russian soldiers,  at least one that we see, so no,  it doesn't appear that the combat stage had completed. 

 

Wrong.  The_Capt already kicked this notion to the curb.  I'll kick it to the curb even further...

Let's say 10 men are approaching the Ukrainian lines with their hands raised and no visible signs of weapons.  A Ukrainian PKM gunner mows them down because, well, they haven't surrendered yet and who knows... they could be up to no good. Or as you put it "a potential threat".  Not a war crime?

As I've said several times already, some of the prone guys getting killed as a direct result of the idiot "hero" is unfortunate, but not a war crime.  Deliberately raking the whole group with machinegun fire "just in case" is a war crime.  It's as simple as that.

The act of surrendering needs to be respected.  Period.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

After watching another bazillion videos of Ukrainian drone bombers dropping grenades I came to the conclusion that the benefit of having two bombs has less to do with having a second shot if the first one misses or the ability to engage two targets.  Instead, the conclusion I've come to is that a second bomb seems to be most effective when dropped on the same target as the first.  The second hit often seems to change the situation from wounded/damaged to killed/destroyed.  The small size of the grenades is the issue, not the accuracy of the drops.

Steve

[kevinkin]

The old one-two (punch)
Two quick punches delivered to one's opponent in rapid succession, one coming from each hand. The boxer's put his opponent in a daze with a flurry of punches, then brought him down to the mat with the old one-two.

Has a long history of success in subduing a drunk in a bar fight. And very well adapted to drunken Russians

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

After watching another bazillion videos of Ukrainian drone bombers dropping grenades I came to the conclusion that the benefit of having two bombs has less to do with having a second shot if the first one misses or the ability to engage two targets.  Instead, the conclusion I've come to is that a second bomb seems to be most effective when dropped on the same target as the first.  The second hit often seems to change the situation from wounded/damaged to killed/destroyed.  The small size of the grenades is the issue, not the accuracy of the drops.

Steve

I don't think it can be over emphasized how radically these things will improve when truly militarized versions become available.

https://www.google.com/search?q=fpv+drone+bomb&oq=fpv+drone+bomb&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30j0i390l4.11864j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:e93cc490,vid:iq86zp3YTs8

This is actually a converted racing drone. And presumably in large scale production you will get something more like a switchblade, that isn't stupidly expensive, and works better. If the data link is an easier problem than the AI, well we are not short of video game players. I also wonder how the secret service operates without jamming everything for a five mile radius. 

[Kinophile]

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 Deliberately raking the whole group with machinegun fire "just in case" is a war crime.  It's as simple as that.

The act of surrendering needs to be respected.  Period.

Steve

Oh absolutely. But the situation in this video was not tied off,  the UKR soldiers were not yet safe. So a group violent response to an act of "perfidy" in an extremely tense situation was inevitable. Legalities aside,  that one stupid asshat put all his comrades lives at risk. Hell, the UKR on the spot don't know in that instant if the entire surrender is now a trap.

By simple brutal combat logic,  to ensure they live,  it's a very simple decision by the UKR soldiers -  open fire now,  shoot anything that moves. What other combat choice do they realistically have? It's not "just in case" ,  it's now "all bets are off" -  the situation has flipped and we're in potential mortal danger. 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Kinophile

[kevinkin]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I don't think it can be over emphasized how radically these things will improve when truly militarized versions become available.

Dude, I think we were born a century too early:

 

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The act of surrendering needs to be respected. 

At the cost of the mission which needs to be carried out? British army experienced this in North Africa, they simply didn't have the logistics. Both to process the prisoners, feed them, and carry out the mission. Their solution take of their boots and socks and leave them. Nothing is ideal.

[Fernando]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

The act of surrendering needs to be respected.  Period.

Steve

It must be respected by BOTH sides. IMHO that was not the case.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Fernando said:

It must be respected by BOTH sides. IMHO that was not the case.

Sure it was.  The Russian "hero" that rushed out with his gun blazing did not respect the act of surrendering and was justifiably killed.  The guys on the ground, who were respecting the act of surrendering, should not have been killed.  At least not intentionally.  Unintentionally is a different case.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

Intentional direct fire doesn't work in CM unintentional area fire at the same location does.

[Battlefront.com]

50 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

At the cost of the mission which needs to be carried out?

According to the Geneva Convention, yes.  And at times that certainly was a major annoyance.  I have a first hand account of a US tanker getting chewed out by a senior commander (Battalion, I think) because his one tank captured 100+ Germans.  IIRC he got lost and stumbled into them.  Whatever the case, it doesn't matter.

50 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

British army experienced this in North Africa, they simply didn't have the logistics. Both to process the prisoners, feed them, and carry out the mission. Their solution take of their boots and socks and leave them. Nothing is ideal.

One needs to start with an ideal and then apply reality to it.  Starting the other way around is a very bad idea.  Which is why the Geneva Convention exists as well as the fundamental concept of a rules based society.

Nothing is ideal, but some things are less ideal than others.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

 

Oh absolutely. But the situation in this video was not tied off,  the UKR soldiers were not yet safe. So a group violent response to an act of "perfidy" in an extremely tense situation was inevitable.

Absolutely it was inevitable.  But it doesn't mean carte blanche, such as the example I gave in my previous post which you didn't address.

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

By simple brutal combat logic,  to ensure they live,  it's a very simple decision by the UKR soldiers -  open fire now,  shoot anything that moves. What other combat choice do they realistically have? It's not "just in case" ,  it's now "all bets are off" -  the situation has flipped and we're in potential mortal danger. 

Hundreds of violent protestors stormed the US Congress two years ago.  I suppose the police could have mowed them down and then finished off the ones that were still twitching.  I mean, realistically what other choice did they have?  But they didn't do it, did they?

As I've said many times, I'm fine with more than just the "hero" getting killed in this situation.  But if one or more of the Ukrainians thought it was "better safe than sorry" and deliberately shot and killed everybody in that courtyard, that is solidly in war crime territory and those trying to dismiss it as anything other than that are kidding themselves.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

BTW, this discussion is exactly why it is a bad idea for Ukraine to engage in Russian like behavior.  The people in this thread are exclusively pro-Ukrainian, hold Russia responsible for the war, want Russia punished to the point of civil war if need be, and are no strangers to military matters or military history.  Yet we've now spent the better part of 3 or 4 pages debating this one incident while the larger war continues on around it because some people have either justified the killings carte blanche or have dismissed concerns that Ukraine needs to make sure stuff like this doesn't happen (or at the very least doesn't get uploaded to social media).

If we're struggling with this incident, think of how this plays out in wider societies that are inherently less unified and informed?  Not good, right?  Right.

Steve

[Huba]

Very interesting development, I think it is the first purely Western aircraft that Ukraine gets. It proves  that there was some covert training of UA pilots done - now waiting for handover of F-16 and Eurofighters

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

Kazakh chocolate ad, featuring fleeing russian mobik and "the taste of freedom":

 

[G.I. Joe]

47 minutes ago, Huba said:

Very interesting development, I think it is the first purely Western aircraft that Ukraine gets. It proves  that there was some covert training of UA pilots done - now waiting for handover of F-16 and Eurofighters

 

The Sea King - Flying Yesterday's Aircraft Tomorrow!

[Seedorf81]

I'm sixty years old and practically all my life I have been struggling with the phrase "WARCRIMES".

As I see it, war is by definition a crime and we humans ALWAYS commit horrible crimes during war, civil wars, uprisings, revolutions, conquests and even in peacetime.

Romans, Persians, Dutch, French, Spanish, Aztecs, Vikings, native -Americans, "Arabs", African tribesmen, Chinese, Russians, Japanese, German, and yes even Americans and Canadians and the British (and every other large group of humans), exploited, killed, maimed, tortured and executed their opponents. Be it real or suspected opponents, that is.

Most people, certainly in the West, have the illusion that war can be fought in a "rather clean way".

In my opinion the whole morality-stance on the "yes or no" execution of these Russian prisoners is a waste of time. It is a part of war and as long as we humans go to war, these combat-crimes will happen. I fact, it is a miracle that there are so much frontline-soldiers that DO NOT commit "warcrimes".

I do think there is a big difference between combat-crimes and noncombat-crimes, but if you really want to stop warcrimes, stop war.

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sure it was.  The Russian "hero" that rushed out with his gun blazing did not respect the act of surrendering and was justifiably killed.  The guys on the ground, who were respecting the act of surrendering, should not have been killed.  At least not intentionally.  Unintentionally is a different case.

Steve

I think the question is whether the guys on the ground were shot by a wild burst from the prone macinegunner acting in panic, or if they were deliberately murdered one by one after the crazy Russian went down.

And it doesn't look to my eyes like the bodies were torn up by a machinegun firing the whole magazine at close range. I'm no forensic expert, but it looks like blood pooling out of head wounds to me. It looks like revenge killings of prisoners.

Unfortunately, I don't think this incident will ever be properly investigated to find out what the truth is.

[Bulletpoint]

17 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

I'm sixty years old and practically all my life I have been struggling with the phrase "WARCRIMES".

As I see it, war is by definition a crime and we humans ALWAYS commit horrible crimes during war, civil wars, uprisings, revolutions, conquests and even in peacetime.

Romans, Persians, Dutch, French, Spanish, Aztecs, Vikings, native -Americans, "Arabs", African tribesmen, Chinese, Russians, Japanese, German, and yes even Americans and Canadians and the British (and every other large group of humans), exploited, killed, maimed, tortured and executed their opponents. Be it real or suspected opponents, that is.

Most people, certainly in the West, have the illusion that war can be fought in a "rather clean way".

In my opinion the whole morality-stance on the "yes or no" execution of these Russian prisoners is a waste of time. It is a part of war and as long as we humans go to war, these combat-crimes will happen. I fact, it is a miracle that there are so much frontline-soldiers that DO NOT commit "warcrimes".

I do think there is a big difference between combat-crimes and noncombat-crimes, but if you really want to stop warcrimes, stop war.

I agree with nearly everything you wrote, apart from whether it's a waste of time to discuss it.

Maybe wars will never be "clean", but as long as we in the West feel that we are supporting Ukraine fighting a righteous and "mostly clean" war, we will likely continue to support them.

The moment we start to feel it's turned into just another war of grey nuances, why not just try to stop the war? Stop sending arms to Zelensky, and let Putin keep what he has taken, just like any other warlord in history.

[chuckdyke]

I must say the way Saladin conquered Jerusalem was neat. It went down like this. To the Crusaders I admire you as you're brave men. It will cost me plenty to take the Holy City. However...... What happened he fed the starving crusaders and guaranteed a save return to Europe. History calls him a great general, not for nothing, logistics won the battle for him. The wisdom is some battles shouldn't be fought and I am afraid the Ukraine is one of them. For the Russians sorry but putin blew it! as a head of state completely unacceptable. I look forward to the day you will rejoin the rest of Europe it took Germany a generation.

 

[Zeleban]

.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Zeleban

[Zeleban]

9 hours ago, Butschi said:

But. Instead of saying it must have been a Russian missile and it was the Russians who committed a war crime here merely sounds like what we would expect from Russia, not Ukraine.

I am sure that the situation is quite real when the West will resort to force by attacking Ukraine in order to pacify these impudent and shameless scoundrels who do not comply with the rules of war. Oh, and most importantly, Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons...