Haiduk Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 The man, who performed a plan of General Staff of right bank liberation - major-general Andriy Kovalchuk, 48 y.o., commander of Operative Command "South" and Operative-Strategic Troops Grouping "Oleksandriya" (Southern theater). Today he visited Kherson. He participated in peacmaking operation in Kosovo and Liberia. In 2014-2016 was a commander of 80th airmobile brigade, was wounded during the battle for Luhansk airport, but didn't leave own sodiers. In 2018 he received honorary British award for best graduates of National Defense Univercity - the Sword of Queen Elizabeth II 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 (edited) "A deal between Russians and Ukrainians" is no more as speculations. Here Russian rearguard convoy (our soldier on the video tells about 3 armored vehciles, 2 trucks and jeep), withdrawing to Kherson was encircled by UKR troops. Russians made logical choise - they surrendered Also I doubt a "deal" could provide artillery and HIMARS shelling of crossings and left bank as it took place. Edited November 12, 2022 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 These videos of citizens of Kherson rejoicing are already more corrosive to Russian national morale than military withdrawal in itself. Muscovite nats are coping hard, but one can feel that narration of "liberation of Russian citizens" lost its magic, at least regarding areas beyond Donbas and Crimea. Gen. Hodges on optimistic scenario. Not sure how realistic, but he was very hawkish from the start. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Something to keep in mind, contrast Ukrainian words on the destruction of Mariupol and the "liberation" of it by Russia vs that of Kherson's liberation. Plays well internationally, domestically, plays well with those under occupation, and imagine the thinking of all the collaborators, where in Kharkiv they ran, Kherson they ran. Where else will they run and leave them behind? No Stalingrad, no "not one step back", the annexations mean nothing, nothing at all, the territory is not Russian, and the people who sided with them, nothing. Again, deal or no deal, it is better for Russia to leave intact than be evicted by force. You save the civilians, the infrastructure, you preserve your forces and supply for the next battles. Every shell fired to evict Russia from Kherson is one less to evict Russia from Svatove and so on. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, FancyCat said: Again, deal or no deal, it is better for Russia to leave intact than be evicted by force. You save the civilians, the infrastructure, you preserve your forces and supply for the next battles. But the alternative to letting the Russians leave is not to assault the city. It's to starve them out and make them surrender. Ukraine had 20,000 Russians trapped and isolated. Now they will have to face them again but on the eastern side of the river where they will be in much better positions and have much better supply. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 My favourite from today. Babushkas do not **** around. It is curious how many of them at occupied territories quietly supported AFU's war effort: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: Ukraine had 20,000 Russians trapped and isolated. They were neither trapped, nor isolated. They had some troubles with supply after HIMARS strikes on large ammo dumps and bridges, but they adapted own logistic even for grown up grouping. Only damaging of Kerch bridge and close winter made their situation too risky for holding the right bank further. Edited November 12, 2022 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 33 minutes ago, Haiduk said: The man, who performed a plan of General Staff of right bank liberation - major-general Andriy Kovalchuk, 48 y.o., commander of Operative Command "South" and Operative-Strategic Troops Grouping "Oleksandriya" (Southern theater). Today he visited Kherson. He participated in peacmaking operation in Kosovo and Liberia. In 2014-2016 was a commander of 80th airmobile brigade, was wounded during the battle for Luhansk airport, but didn't leave own sodiers. In 2018 he received honorary British award for best graduates of National Defense Univercity - the Sword of Queen Elizabeth II I can only imagine how proud he feels for liberating Kherson from RU occupation. A true hero. When this war is over I hope Ukraine's military leaders will write about their experiences in this war, and those books will be translated into English. I really want to read them. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 One more Russian unit, was left as rearguard - captured T-72B3 mod.2016 has tactical sign of 228th motor-rifle regiment of 90th tank division (phase 1 "O" marking) of Central Military District 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 I would ask that everybody here give a moment of silence in support of the Oryx guys. They are not going to be sleeping for the next few days so that we may get a better sense of how much Russia lost in this battle. They are also heroes On a more serious note, I concur with Haiduk's assessment that the amount of shellfire and Russian attempts to cross the river indicate that there was no deal between Ukraine and Russia. I think we're going to learn that there was more fire put on the crossings than we know of at this moment. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 (edited) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUClHwJiT3I Fresh stuff from my favourite reporter. Mateusz Lachowski managed to be one the first in liberated city, already in the morning. Some observations: -City is very well preserved, people visibly cheerful like nowhere else in Ukraine, chantng on the roads, towns, city center. Total lack of power and signal, muscovites destroyed every piece of infrastructure but people have party of their lives. -Still he is afraid they may soon discover true horrors of artillery strikes; city is in the crosshairs of artillery and Russians will not hesitate to destroy it once heavy Ukrainian units will come by [wise move to stay away from the city] or simply by revenge, since they expected that many more inhabitants of the city will took Russian passports and escape on the left bank. Their propaganda attempt to show it as apocalyptic evacuation of "Russian city" failed miserably due to passive resistance of the citizens. Giant and small flags we all saw were made by them, during occupation, as "hidden communality work" in order to sustain their identity. People captured with such flags could face persecutions; however, it seems overal people in Kherson were slightly less supressed than in other regions. Russians visually hoped to turn them into their citizens using carrots (and promised hefty benefits) rather than sticks. -Still, people talk about widespread looting, torture chambers, hidden cementaries and people missing. Guys previously serving in ATO were especially scared for their lives, some hide for most of the time. He met a person who worked daily next to unit of Russian soldiers, including Chechens; he managed to steal some documents of presumably murdered Ukrainian prisoners before they burned them. Then he met Lachowski on the crossroads of the city, where he standed for some time in hope of giving them to any passing Ukrainian Special Forces. -Bad news is that Russian withdrew in organized manner- withdrawing columns were passing the city entire last week. Almost no burned vehicles beyond Chernobaivka and maybe 1-2 old wrecks along the way from former frontline to the city. Very dissimilar landscape compared to Izyum (Lachowski was one of first correspondents there as well). City was almost emptied of Russian soldiers already by Thursday; there were some small skirmishes in the city center and perhaps at the bridge, but no visible damages. -There was a blocking/rear guard unit of Chechens stationed there that tried to escape in civilian clothes. Locals recognized them instantly (beards )and denounced to incoming Ukrainian soldiers who arrest/killed them [there were indeed hysterical Russian channels claiming AFU started "executions" of several dozens civilians]. Kadyrovites were hated by everyone. -Many well-equipped (in NATO heavy stuff) Ukrainian soldiers he met along the way seem to go "somehwere", or at least are not visible int the countryside. He does not want to speculate, but some of them may be already moved into another fronts or even cross the river (Kilburn raid? Interesting). Not a lot of new things, just some snippets. Note we discussed several months ago the usefulness of Chechens as rearguard in exactly the same way. Edited November 12, 2022 by Beleg85 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NamEndedAllen Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 (edited) The droll trolling on Russia continues. Edited November 12, 2022 by NamEndedAllen 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 It would be essential for UKR to have even small bridgeheads across the river before RUS forces solidify their defense. Classic soviet tactic from Bagration onwards, I believe? Have something, anythingon the far side of whichever river that 1) enemy cannot ignore and 2) you can steadily reinforce and expand from. Attacking from contested, observed and zero-d in bridgehead is still far far better than opposed amphibious attack. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 My best guess is that the Kilburn spit raid is a lure to draw out the Russian fleet again. Also forces them to garrison and fortify the coast down at least as far as Perekop. Keep them stretched thin. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Kinophile said: It would be essential for UKR to have even small bridgeheads across the river before RUS forces solidify their defense. Classic soviet tactic from Bagration onwards, I believe? Have something, anythingon the far side of whichever river that 1) enemy cannot ignore and 2) you can steadily reinforce and expand from. Attacking from contested, observed and zero-d in bridgehead is still far far better than opposed amphibious attack. Totally agree this is soviet tactic from WW2 and was very successful, though often at high cost. But would that work here? It seems very high risk. UKR might be able to put powerful artillery shield over the bridgehead, that might make it feasible. But still there's a LOT of RU men, armor, & artillery on interior lines that could come to bear. If I ordered this I'd probably have to start smoking just so I could chain smoke the stress away like in the WW2 days. I suppose coupled with an attack down the left bank it could be really good. But also might be Arnhem. 1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said: My best guess is that the Kilburn spit raid is a lure to draw out the Russian fleet again. Also forces them to garrison and fortify the coast down at least as far as Perekop. Keep them stretched thin. that's my guess also. It'll be interesting to see if Kinophile is right and UKR smells blood in the water and does something bold. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 5 hours ago, Haiduk said: The man, who performed a plan of General Staff of right bank liberation - major-general Andriy Kovalchuk, 48 y.o., commander of Operative Command "South" and Operative-Strategic Troops Grouping "Oleksandriya" (Southern theater). Today he visited Kherson. He participated in peacmaking operation in Kosovo and Liberia. In 2014-2016 was a commander of 80th airmobile brigade, was wounded during the battle for Luhansk airport, but didn't leave own sodiers. In 2018 he received honorary British award for best graduates of National Defense Univercity - the Sword of Queen Elizabeth II Is it just me or do his bodyguards look like the SERIOUS sort of fellows. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 This guy is edging towards inexcusable, I mean... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-congress-senate-house-11-12-2022/index.html Bipartisan support or no, the facts of Democratic control of the Senate and a very slim Republican majority in the house absolutely guarantees US support and an inevitable Ukrainian victory. Even a premature death/incapacitation of Biden would do little to affect long term and sustained support. For Biden personally, I'd say beating Trump and Putin are too massive legacies he will probably look back on with unending satisfaction. Crimea delenda est. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 29 minutes ago, Kinophile said: Crimea delenda est. Er, can we settle for liberation Cato? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, fireship4 said: Er, can we settle for liberation Cato? Fiiine: Crimea liberari debet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, Kinophile said: Crimea liberari debet. Caecilius est in culīnā. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, dan/california said: This guy is edging towards inexcusable, I mean... Vad at the beginning of the war: "Putin will win this war because the Russian armed forces are modern, well-equipped, because they also have multiple superiorities, because they have a strategic base against which one simply cannot defend oneself." Complete clown. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homer The Doomer Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 3 hours ago, billbindc said: Vad at the beginning of the war: "Putin will win this war because the Russian armed forces are modern, well-equipped, because they also have multiple superiorities, because they have a strategic base against which one simply cannot defend oneself." Complete clown. I agree 100%: the man is as incompetent as they get and has been wrong about every single one of his predictions. However, he was already retired early in 2012 (under unclear circumstances), his position as adviser to the Merkel government ended back then as well. German public television has a tendency to always tryi to show both sides of any issue, no matter how ridiculous one of those sides may be. Vad is therefore a popular talk-show guest along with the likes of Sarah Wagenknecht etc. They represent fringe opinions but are sure to generate controversy and therefore clicks and views. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Homer The Doomer said: I agree 100%: the man is as incompetent as they get and has been wrong about every single one of his predictions. I think that he is least concerned about the veracity of his predictions. Money is flowing so why not be a clown for a while 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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