How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

Very positive wording from Zelensky on Macron call about French aid to Ukraine.

 

 

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Very positive wording from Zelensky on Macron call about French aid to Ukraine.

 

 

And I will pitch in by supporting France in this effort by buying from our local french bakery this week, where I have shown unwavering support for our very grumpy very French pastry chef.  (Pastries in this town are all garbage except for this one shining light)

I wonder what he's sending?  More Caesars?  Some armored vehicles?  Ammo? 

Once again, Putin tries to flip the chess board but the table won't budge -- but the allies don't waver, they announce more support!  He's got a few pawns & his king left and he knows he'll lose if the game keeps going this way.  Desperation time.  I wonder where he'll escalate next?  

[danfrodo]

behind paywall, but gives a look behind trying to crack RU defenses in Kherson.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/01/world/europe/ukraine-war-kherson.html

 

 

[dan/california]

7 hours ago, JonS said:

@Letter from Prague

However bad the sergeants day was, a Major somewhere close by was pondering the end of his career...

4 hours ago, Probus said:

Is this a different angle or instance?

 

I am pretty sure it is another angle on the Wagner helicopter.

52 minutes ago, billbindc said:

We've had artillery launched mines for a long time. When are we going to have artillery launched cameras/sensors/monitors? 

The Israelis were doing at least some of this a decade or more ago. I assume there is ongoing work. Since the river crossings that cost the Russians a BTG or two I have been pondering how useful it would be to have drone sensor package you could just stick in a convenient tree. There are obvious variations for deploying them by drone or parachute. I assume some sort of rocket would be infinitely better than gun launched. It is royal and expensive pain to harden things to be gun launched. The sensor bubble, and the conflict between sensor bubbles is the defining concept of this war. There is an enormous scope for things like leaving sensors behind if you have retreat from an area. It is only money, the only thing more expensive is losing.

28 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

behind paywall, but gives a look behind trying to crack RU defenses in Kherson.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/01/world/europe/ukraine-war-kherson.html

 

 

They do great coverage when they want to. But they have been very episodic about putting in the effort. And whoever the regional guy that just dials it in is awful.

Edited November 1, 2022 by dan/california

[OldSarge]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1587325

An interesting move by Putin. could he really be interested in the Rivine NPP?

Edited November 1, 2022 by OldSarge

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They do great coverage when they want to. But they have been very episodic about putting in the effort. And whoever the regional guy that just dials it in is awful.

I just look at this article on its own merits. It was good look at some folks fighting the war and civilians encountered along the , offered some insights, had some good pictures.  

As Steve mentioned above about the age of many soldiers, these guys were not young.

[Chibot Mk IX]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

? I could make a joke about stolen toilets, but that would just be potty...

that means recoverable loss.

Санитарные потери — Википедия (wikipedia.org)

[Huba]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

And I will pitch in by supporting France in this effort by buying from our local french bakery this week, where I have shown unwavering support for our very grumpy very French pastry chef.  (Pastries in this town are all garbage except for this one shining light)

I wonder what he's sending?  More Caesars?  Some armored vehicles?  Ammo? 

Once again, Putin tries to flip the chess board but the table won't budge -- but the allies don't waver, they announce more support!  He's got a few pawns & his king left and he knows he'll lose if the game keeps going this way.  Desperation time.  I wonder where he'll escalate next?  

He said that the help will be concentrated around air defence. Apart from the already pledged Crotale (which is nice but really doesn't help that much) it hopefully means SAMP/T. If  that finally happens, US will become more inclined towards sending Patriot too - as nice and cutting edge as the Aster missiles are, their stock is small, while PAC-2 is rather ubiquitous. 

 

Edited November 1, 2022 by Huba

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

These guys are in the Bakhmut sector, but as you say they could be on the edge of it.  However, their point is still valid because for most of the war whatever sector they've been in (I presume Izyum if this is the 93rd) they've seen much, much worse attention by Russian artillery than they are seeing now.  A few months ago Russia would be hitting the peripheries of Bakhmut, and pretty much everywhere, with lots of artillery.  Now it seems they have to be selective with their use of artillery.  Which is what we've been hearing from other sources.

Steve

Oh for sure Ukrainians are now in much better position overally, however much of our evidence is still anecdotal and educated guessess based on theoretical arithmetic of logistical limits. At least directly at Bakhmut outskirts Moskals still use grads, other rocket artillery, Pions, copious ammounts of phosphorus ammo and similar devices.

 

Yes! Found more satanism, this time because of Haloween. Ukrainians are even summoning ghosts of killed Russians soldiers and insult them(!). How rude...:

 

Edited November 1, 2022 by Beleg85

[womble]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

We've had artillery launched mines for a long time. When are we going to have artillery launched cameras/sensors/monitors? 

Oh yeah. Meant to mention that concept too. Might need to be rocket-launched, just so the G-forces the delicate 'tronics and optics would have to survive could be minimised/economised on. I know we've got artillery shells with clever microcircuitry and precise optical sensors for guidance already, but maybe a cheaper round for scattering eyeballs over the landscape would be a better choice.

[Huba]

44 minutes ago, womble said:

Oh yeah. Meant to mention that concept too. Might need to be rocket-launched, just so the G-forces the delicate 'tronics and optics would have to survive could be minimised/economised on. I know we've got artillery shells with clever microcircuitry and precise optical sensors for guidance already, but maybe a cheaper round for scattering eyeballs over the landscape would be a better choice.

Russians already did it with BM30, though I have no idea how many were actually produced  and deployed, there were no mentions about them in the current conflict. 
https://en.missilery.info/missile/smerch/9m534

Edited November 1, 2022 by Huba

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

He said that the help will be concentrated around air defence. Apart from the already pledged Crotale (which is nice but really doesn't help that much) it hopefully means SAMP/T. If  that finally happens, US will become more inclined towards sending Patriot too - as nice and cutting edge as the Aster missiles are, their stock is small, while PAC-2 is rather ubiquitous. 

By the way, staying within Air defence topics, I had very interesting conversation lately with one US soldier who happen to station in my city and was moved from Bahrain. He was very into technical details and claimed that most Iranian drones of Shaheed series can have problems if really deep winter comes, as they were designed to be used in Persian Gulf area only. Reportedly Iranians regularly loose them on tests even in higher parts of Zagros mountains.  There was some specifics details (sorry, I am not tech guy ) about supposedly batteries working bad in very low temperatures, not able to generate enough heat, which may lead to some subsystems switching off. I am curious if he may be right.

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, womble said:

Winds are only (that much of) a problem for flying drones. Your ISR bubble next-up will have crawler/creeper/walker/runner/roller scout drones as well, because of that. They'll be small, and infiltrate ahead of time at night, radio-silent. They'll creep under bushes and climb up trees under autonomous guidance (to maintain opsec), then come awake as needed to be the eyes of the force they're scouting for.

There'll be active ones nearer the fighting forces, too. Obviously, a ground drone doesn't get the great view that a flying one does, so you'll need more of 'em. But most FOs have been footsloggers (or at best passengers in a ground vehicle), historically, so you're just not getting the additional improvement of being airborne.

Cyberpunk RPG players have probably already developed SOPs the military could use as a starting point.

Imo it is not a question of whether but when drones will be flying all weather. And it won't take a decade. 

[Lethaface]

double post

Edited November 1, 2022 by Lethaface

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Imo it is not a question of whether but when drones will be flying all weather. And it won't take a decade. 

Well, as was said there are some pretty basic physics involved that make it impractical.  At least for something that doesn't cost a ton of money.  Which means that even in 10 years high winds and/or pounding rain will ground most areal drones.  Ground based drones will have other problems to deal with, in particular deep snow, whiteout conditions, high winds, etc. but there's more practical options for overcoming them.

Steve

[hcrof]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, as was said there are some pretty basic physics involved that make it impractical.  At least for something that doesn't cost a ton of money.  Which means that even in 10 years high winds and/or pounding rain will ground most areal drones.  Ground based drones will have other problems to deal with, in particular deep snow, whiteout conditions, high winds, etc. but there's more practical options for overcoming them.

Steve

Don't most militaries use winged drones, not quadcopters? Presumably all-weather operations are a consideration with that choice.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Take with a grain of salt, but if even a grain is true:

https://www.the-sun.com/news/6574028/putin-parkinsons-pancreatic-cancer-russian-insider-reveals/

At least the rumors are consistent that Putin is seriously ill with either (or perhaps both) Parkinsons and some form of cancer.  Pancreatic would be consistent with the jaundice skin tone that's been noted here and there, and also consistent with "terminal" rumors as that one is a tough one to overcome once it's settled in.

I've always been on board with the "Putin is sick" thinking.  Too many little and some big things point to it, even if some of what people are speculating about aren't true.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, hcrof said:

Don't most militaries use winged drones, not quadcopters? Presumably all-weather operations are a consideration with that choice.

Winged drones can stay in the air a lot longer than any form of copter drone.  Reason being that the wings provide lift, which reduces the need for energy to stay in the air.  Batteries can only do so much because the more batteries, the heavier the load, the bigger the drone, the more need for energy... that sort of thing.

Steve

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Winged drones can stay in the air a lot longer than any form of copter drone.  Reason being that the wings provide lift, which reduces the need for energy to stay in the air.  Batteries can only do so much because the more batteries, the heavier the load, the bigger the drone, the more need for energy... that sort of thing.

Steve

At the end though, bigger is better as far as rough weather resistance is concerned.  Flying in high winds, into icing etc requires a bigger and faster platform. Same is true for ships and storms, or even arctic wildlife.

Edited November 1, 2022 by Huba

[Lethaface]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, as was said there are some pretty basic physics involved that make it impractical.  At least for something that doesn't cost a ton of money.  Which means that even in 10 years high winds and/or pounding rain will ground most areal drones.  Ground based drones will have other problems to deal with, in particular deep snow, whiteout conditions, high winds, etc. but there's more practical options for overcoming them.

Steve

Fair points, my position is that this area is rather fit for self learning algorithms (I'll call it flight-by-AI). Of course mother earth still rules this place and extreme conditions will make anything impractical, but the 'problem' has already been 'solved' in nature and or by mankind. I'd say in ten years there are bird/insect like drones doing their business without much human involvement apart from, hopefully, giving the things orders. Might not be cheap though

Edited November 1, 2022 by Lethaface

[acrashb]

11 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

but the 'problem' has already been 'solved' in nature

Nature solves it by hunkering down in inclement weather. Birds don't fly in storms or even heavy rain.  

I'm not sure we have any truly all-weather aircraft.  Maybe something like this, flying above the weather:

[Lethaface]

6 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Nature solves it by hunkering down in inclement weather. Birds don't fly in storms or even heavy rain.  

I'm not sure we have any truly all-weather aircraft.  Maybe something like this, flying above the weather:

35KM/H winds and light/med rainy cloudy weather is more frequent than stormy weather though, at least until now .  Plus we 'command' the 'birds' to fly through the nasty weather, machines don't get to feel uncomfortable.

Edited November 1, 2022 by Lethaface

[Beleg85]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

These guys are in the Bakhmut sector, but as you say they could be on the edge of it.  However, their point is still valid because for most of the war whatever sector they've been in (I presume Izyum if this is the 93rd) they've seen much, much worse attention by Russian artillery than they are seeing now. 

Soldiers she talked with were from 10th Mountain Assault Brigade, they even mentioned Ivano-Frankivsk oblast as depot area.

This one:

 

[Taranis]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Oh for sure Ukrainians are now in much better position overally, however much of our evidence is still anecdotal and educated guessess based on theoretical arithmetic of logistical limits. At least directly at Bakhmut outskirts Moskals still use grads, other rocket artillery, Pions, copious ammounts of phosphorus ammo and similar devices.

 

Yes! Found more satanism, this time because of Haloween. Ukrainians are even summoning ghosts of killed Russians soldiers and insult them(!). How rude...:

 

The set of bones of killed Russian soldiers is not bad too 

[kevinkin]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-treasury-thwarted-attack-russian-144750910.html

"pretty low-level DDoS activity targeting Treasury's critical infrastructure nodes."