How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Fenris]

Would this be HIMARS or similar in use here?

Edit, changed the clip to longer one that includes the aftermath that I saw yesterday.  Was going to wonder at the use of an expensive asset but 5 x SPA is a pretty good result.

And an illustration of the effect of tungsten rain I believe.

 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Fenris

[keas66]

24 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

In the Bakhmut direction and to the south, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive / assault operations in the following areas:

- PMC "Wagner" (by the forces of 2 "assault units" \ battalions) - Nikolaevka, Kurdyumovka; Otradovka, Andreevka; Veselaya Dolina, Bakhmut; Shipilovka, Belogorovka; Zolotarovka, Belogorovka; They took part in the attacks from the assault squad to the reinforced platoon.

- 7th SMRBr of the 2nd AK - Stryapovka, Soledar, somewhere up to 2 platoons;

- 6 "Cossack" SMRR 2nd AK - Pokrovskoye, Bakhmutskoye, reinforced platoon;

- 2 SMRBr of the 2nd AK, up to 2 platoons - Trypillia, Yakovlevka;

- 3 SMRBr of the 1st AK - Zaitsevo (lower), Mayorsk, up to the company;

- 131st RBn mobilization reserve - Gorlovka, Mayorsk, up to 2 platoons, without armored vehicles.

The area of Oprosnoe - Vodyanoye, the enemy during October 29 - 30, by the forces of the 11th SMRR, made an unsuccessful attack on the village of Vodiane, suffered losses.

At the same time, units from the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd MRBn), a separate reconnaissance battalion "Sparta", 185 RBn of the people's militia of the DPR and a detachment of "Storm" 102 MRR 150 TD tried to fortify the positions captured on October 28 with the intention to further develop the offensive on Opytne-Vodyanoye, conducted aerial reconnaissance, reconnaissance in force and tried to inflict fire damage on forward units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

 

It looked like this

(to understand the dynamics and meaning of what we usually call "local battles", or what Arestovich calls "small tactical actions").

 

The enemy from the 11th separate motorized rifle regiment attempted an offensive from the village of Peski in the direction of the village of Vodiane. The enemy formed 4 assault groups, probably from the 1st motorized rifle battalion of this regiment, and began to advance with the support of artillery and armored vehicles.

Not later than 20 minutes later, he came into fire contact with the forward units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and for several hours suffered significant losses in manpower and equipment (up to 12 people killed and wounded), was forced to retreat to the starting line. The command of the attacking unit justified this decision by "the impossibility of conducting offensive operations due to the use of UAVs of the Fury type by the Armed Forces of Ukraine ...

In turn, the enemy from the 2 MRBn of the 1st SMRBr and SRecBn "Sparta" (equipping the positions captured on October 28 in the southeastern part of the village of Vodiane), tried to conduct reconnaissance in combat (with forces - up to 2 assault squads), success also didn't have.

SRecBn "Sparta", during this period, led the air strenuously. And also from the UAV corrected the fire on the allegedly Ukrainian 82-mm mortar, claimed that they "suppressed the target." After a certain time, probably at the same coordinates, he "suppressed the mortar" again, the consumption was up to 20 shells. In fact, no one suppressed anything ... The enemy in this area during his "reconnaissance in force" suffered at least two sanitary losses.

In addition, the enemy from the 185 RBn people's militia of the DPR and the Storm detachment 102 MRR 150 TD tried to hold the positions captured on October 28 southeast of the village of Opytnoe. In the morning, reinforcements from reservists approached with a "categorical" task - to hold positions. After that, according to the plan, the assault groups were to resume the offensive in the direction of the village of Opytnoe. However, due to the devastating fire of the Ukrainian artillery, the enemy was forced to abandon his intentions. During the day, his losses on this sector of the front amounted to at least 5 sanitary.

In turn, the subunits of the "Pyatnashka" battalion, during this period, were engaged in household chores, did not carry out active attacking actions in their sector of the front south of the city of Avdiivka. The total number of this unit, capable of this kind of "impromptu" on the indicated sector of the front, as of the morning of the 31st, is up to 65-70 people.

I've yet to see any  real explanation for why the Wagner forces are pushing so hard in this sector apart from the idea of being able to announce some sort of success  when they eventually are forced to withdraw  . I mean this amount of effort in such a concentrated  area  while they are being  pushed back in the North and South - It seems like the strategy of a complete imbecile . What do they gain  by trying to push for  Bakhmut ??

Edited October 31, 2022 by keas66

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, keas66 said:

I've yet to see any  real explanation fro why the Wagner forces are pushing so hard in this sector apart from the idea of being able to announce some sort of success  when they eventually are forced to withdraw  . I mean this amount of effort in such a concentrated  area  while they are being  pushed back in the North and South - It seems like the strategy of a complete imbecile . What do they gain  by trying to push for  Bakhmut ??

RU degrading its forces in pointless offensive while trying to hold critical sectors w drunk uncles.  As has been quoted here many times, never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.  

Imagine if there's a breakthrough N & S of Svatove that totally unhinges that defense line.   RU units trying to retreat on the few east-west roads (due to mud) w/o proper coordination or delaying actions, getting pummeled by arty & SOF/mobile teams setting up ATGM ambushes.  It's just wishful thinking right now, but it could happen and could happen fast.  UKR seems to be applying pressure in multiple areas trying to cause local collapse.

[Huba]

Just now, danfrodo said:

RU degrading its forces in pointless offensive while trying to hold critical sectors w drunk uncles.  As has been quoted here many times, never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.  

Imagine if there's a breakthrough N & S of Svatove that totally unhinges that defense line.   RU units trying to retreat on the few east-west roads (due to mud) w/o proper coordination or delaying actions, getting pummeled by arty & SOF/mobile teams setting up ATGM ambushes.  It's just wishful thinking right now, but it could happen and could happen fast.  UKR seems to be applying pressure in multiple areas trying to cause local collapse.

There are some (unconfirmed of course) information/ rumors about literal human wave attacks at Bakhmut, consisting almost exclusively of the pardoned prisoners. I'm ready to believe that - on one hand, it is no real "loss", just disposable bodies, on the other, even if they don't achieve much, they maintain the image of being able to at least keep the pressure on UA.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

There are some (unconfirmed of course) information/ rumors about literal human wave attacks at Bakhmut, consisting almost exclusively of the pardoned prisoners. I'm ready to believe that - on one hand, it is no real "loss", just disposable bodies, on the other, even if they don't achieve much, they maintain the image of being able to at least keep the pressure on UA.

And they are causing casualties on the Ukrainian side.  Report from a few posts ago shows the 93rd is being worn out (though we don't know what their strength was when they moved into the area).

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

Maybe they are just cynic enough to use the mercenaries and prisoners as cannon fodder in order to deplete Ukrainian ammunition, especially artillery shells.

Or they are imbeciles.

Or there's a sensible reason we just don't know because we have limited information, but I think the answer is probably found in a combination of the two first options.

[hcrof]

I wonder if it is just easier to bring trainloads of artillery shells there so they attack because they can press the artillery advantage?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Personally, for me, this whole story, which the Russian command is now trying to carefully hide "under the carpet", does not cause much surprise.

No surprise at all.  This is to be expected from a conscripted force that isn't motivated, equipped, supplied, armed, or led is stuck into a position and left to fend for themselves.

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

It is only surprising that the Russian command, it seems, either does not have (real) information about the state of affairs in sectors of the front that are quite important for itself, or does not deal with such an issue as establishing interaction between its own units (during interrogations of the retreating "chmobiks" it turned out that they were fired on at least twice by Russian units occupying positions behind them or on the flanks). Some wildness...

I think it's a combination of factors, but the primary one being the Russians don't have enough officers and communications equipment to keep their forces connected.  They are even more short on officers who are true professionals rather than it's something they do for money.  This is an inevitable result of a system that was barely functional in peacetime with full staffing being exposed to months of high losses.

The other likely reason is that the few officers in the area have no faith in the mobiks, so they stick them somewhere and "wash their hands of them".  What Russian officer wants to go visit them and hear all their whining and complaining about not having food and ammunition?  Might even wind up getting killed by them or by Ukrainian fire.  Nope, much better to sit well to the rear with other officers in the same situation.  Safety in numbers.

Steve

[Huba]

Just now, Bulletpoint said:

Maybe they are just cynic enough to use the mercenaries and prisoners as cannon fodder in order to deplete Ukrainian ammunition, especially artillery shells.

Or they are imbeciles.

Or there's a sensible reason we just don't know because we have limited information, but I think the answer is probably found in a combination of the two first options.

IMO there's an important distinction to make here between goals of RU army in Ukraine as a whole and goals of Wagner - what's stupid from RU army perspective might make perfect sense for Wagner, which is there also to forward Prygozhin's broader political aims.

[kevinkin]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

pardoned prisoners

What's next? Dogs with antitank mines?

[Battlefront.com]

54 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

This is interesting for two reasons.  First, this is "deep" into Russian territory.  Second, it's not clear that the saboteur is Ukrainian.  Whatever damage was or wasn't done, the fact that an attack like this happened (especially if it was not Ukraine) is important.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

What's next? Dogs with antitank mines?

Hey, why not?  Just because it didn't work the first time doesn't mean it won't work now.

Steve

[kevinkin]

Yeah, blasting Taylor Swift's new album into UA lines would be far more effective.  Most men will crumble at that. 

[Letter from Prague]

Finally we have video proof of Banderites attacking poor Donbass children with HIMARS:

 

[NamEndedAllen]

21 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I wonder if it is just easier to bring trainloads of artillery shells there so they attack because they can press the artillery advantage?

That together with speculating the possibility that this attack is the only area in which they see an opportunity to actually capture something on the offensive. The fact that Bakhmut doesn’t look important to us isn’t the point for both their leadership and the Russian public, desperate for any sort of victory. Especially where they have trumpeted the attack for so long. 
 

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

That together with speculating the possibility that this attack is the only area in which they see an opportunity to actually capture something on the offensive. The fact that Bakhmut doesn’t look important to us isn’t the point for both their leadership and the Russian public, desperate for any sort of victory. Especially where they have trumpeted the attack for so long. 
 

And let's remember that moving convicts from cells into coffins would be considered a societal win for Putin, especially if they could take some UKR troops with them.   I am guessing Wagner is paid by the warm body, not skill level.  And lots of the dead won't be written off right away so Wagner can get paid for them for another month.  This actually fits very well into the corrupt system we've seen so far. 

Maybe Putin believes this offensive is tying up lots of UKR resources so why not continue it for free from manpower standpoint?  -- meaning a dead criminal is a fine outcome.  He makes lots of other bad calculations.

On the helicopter sabotage, wouldn't it be funny if we find out it was one of the crew who figured his survival chances were better doing this rather than flying more missions.

[Beleg85]

43 minutes ago, Huba said:

IMO there's an important distinction to make here between goals of RU army in Ukraine as a whole and goals of Wagner - what's stupid from RU army perspective might make perfect sense for Wagner, which is there also to forward Prygozhin's broader political aims.

Some Ukrainian accounts claimed Wagnerites send their prisoners conciously into open in order to uncover Ukrainian stations that were immediatelly bombed by artillery and airforce, repeating old tactics they already used early in war but using Donbas mobiks. It was slow but often succesfull. У нас много людей...

36 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is interesting for two reasons.  First, this is "deep" into Russian territory.  Second, it's not clear that the saboteur is Ukrainian.  Whatever damage was or wasn't done, the fact that an attack like this happened (especially if it was not Ukraine) is important.

Steve

It's XXI century, and now even saboteurs make selfies and record their actions on TikTok. Future is here.

Edited October 31, 2022 by Beleg85

[Artkin]

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hey, why not?  Just because it didn't work the first time doesn't mean it won't work now.

Steve

I was in complete shock when I found out about these in WW2. I heard they would go after the Soviet's own tanks since they were trained on T-34's. Lol!

 

[Harmon Rabb]

44 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Yeah, blasting Taylor Swift's new album into UA lines would be far more effective.  Most men will crumble at that. 

LOL, Reminds me of this little event involving a drug lord calling himself a leader and some loud music.

Music torture: How heavy metal broke Manuel Noriega

[Beleg85]

2 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I was in complete shock when I found out about these in WW2. I heard they would go after the Soviet's own tanks since they were trained on T-34's. Lol!

There was a larger topic on twitter circa month ago about Ukrainian group experimenting with small model cars as land drones with mines at the top for roughly the same purpose. A pitty I didn't save it.

[Artkin]

8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There was a larger topic on twitter circa month ago about Ukrainian group experimenting with small model cars as land drones with mines at the top for roughly the same purpose. A pitty I didn't save it.

Why not? Battery tech is good enough for this to be currently feasible. Whatever kills a tank cheapest. It's a good idea. They could even use a retracting camera on the top of it to see over tall grass.

It's definitely better than using a friggen real dog

Edited October 31, 2022 by Artkin

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

That together with speculating the possibility that this attack is the only area in which they see an opportunity to actually capture something on the offensive. The fact that Bakhmut doesn’t look important to us isn’t the point for both their leadership and the Russian public, desperate for any sort of victory. Especially where they have trumpeted the attack for so long. 
 

Whatever the rationale I am fairly certain it would flunk epically if proposed in a NATO staff college. The obvious solution is to get another 50 or 100 155 tubes to Ukraine soonest and make this artillery balance issue go away. The Werchmant broke its teeth at Kursk with mostly political logic like this. Hopefully it will work out just as well for the Russians.

 

A full brigade set of Bradley's and M1s of course would end the war in a couple of weeks, but apparently that makes too much sense. This is the 34th time I have said this since February, but if we aren't shipping it to Taiwan we ought to be shipping it to Ukraine. A problem any where else can get the second tier treatment. Strategic risk in Europe is zero. The Finns, Poles, and airpower could wipe out the pitiful remnants of the Russian army in three days at this point.

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Finally we have video proof of Banderites attacking poor Donbass children with HIMARS:

 

Lol - that's an old tradition. Somewhere I have an hilarious anecdote of it going ... a bit wrong. I'll try and dig it out.

[Huba]

Here's a short thread about future role of helicopters on the battlefield. Author argues that despite significant losses that we see in UA war, there's still a place for them, they just need a change of tactics and integration with unmanned systems. What's funny is that if you replace "helicopter" with tank, fighter jet, surface combatant or even an infantrymen while you read it, the arguments would sound equally convincing. 

 

[Beleg85]

It seems weather is worsening. Traditionally good coverage from Hromadske.