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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Apparently some of Kadyrov's TicTok Warriors are now in Belarus.  Interesting.  There to keep an eye on the locals?

https://censor.net/en/news/3377070/russian_federation_is_transferring_kadyrovs_military_to_belarus_general_staff

Good article on sorting out what happened under Russian occupation in one town in Kharkiv.  This one focuses mostly on Russia's attempts to get the local police to switch sides and not having much luck at it:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-schemes-russian-occupation-kharkiv/32107783.html

Steve

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56 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Have you ever tried to play CM just staying at ground level and only looking over the shoulders of your own troops, realtime only, no 'eye of God' camera view or rewinding? The difficulty level climbs x100.

Thats why WW2 German Infantry (non-motorised) Battalions/Regiments had horses issued to their Commanders - you can see a lot further from horseback! 

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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

According to this noted on October 7th,

Quote

During this period, the JCC increased its inspection teams from two to four, and occasionally five.

Inspections are conducted jointly by Russian, Turkish, Ukrainian and UN inspectors daily, checking documentation and looking for any unauthorized cargo or crew.

October 24th,

Quote

The JCC has increased over the last few days its inspection teams to five.

Now on the 30th, once Russia withdrew their inspectors, now suddenly Turkey and the UN can expand the inspection teams to 10? Sounds to me Russia was dragging their feet in some manner and suddenly once they withdrew, instead of needing to accommodate some Russian delay on personnel or etc, they can simply bypass their prior stalling.

Quote

In order to continue fulfilling the Initiative, it was proposed that the Turkish and United Nations delegations provide tomorrow 10 inspection teams aiming to inspect 40 outbound vessels. This inspection plan has been accepted by the delegation of Ukraine. The Russian Federation delegation has been informed.

Source: https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/updates

 

Edited by FancyCat
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Russia was "offended" for Sevastopol and launched next traditional Mondey missile mass-attack.

50 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles were launched from Tu-95 and Tu-160 over Caspian sea and Rostov oblast. 44 reportedly were intercepted. Around Kyiv it's claimed 7 cruise misiles shot down. 5 of them - Kyiv hydro energy plant area. Alas, we have anyway one or two hits, so northern and partially western and south-westrn districts of Kyiv now without electricity. 

Two hits in Kharkiv - most of the city wothout power. Also some power object was hit in Kaniv town, Cherkasy oblast and one in Kirovohrad oblast.

Air Force command claimed 18 missiles has shot down Air Command "Center", 12 - "South ", 9 -  "East", 5 - "West"

Зображення

 

Edited by Haiduk
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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russia was "offended" for Sevastopol and launched next traditional Mondey missile mass-attack.

If you keep offending them they will ultimately run out of missiles, but alas I fear they will have hit all your power plants. 

I guess when they run out we shall see how effective Iranian missiles are and what their manufacturing timescales are. Israel might have less trouble as the focus shifts to Ukraine. 

A pity Israel doesn't view the Ukrainian plight strongly enough to sell its missile defence system to Ukraine. 

Let's hope those helping Ukraine can provide better protection soon.

In the meantime please let's all keep offending Russia to the best of our ability. 

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6 hours ago, MikeyD said:

Have you ever tried to play CM just staying at ground level and only looking over the shoulders of your own troops, realtime only, no 'eye of God' camera view or rewinding? The difficulty level climbs x100.

Ah we all did that even before real time was available. An entirely different experience for tiny battles. A bit tedious, but worth a try for those unfamiliar. 

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14 hours ago, Artkin said:

Cheap, and will save their lives against well equipped foes:

Have to agree especially if Russia has many FLIR sensors on drones. The clothing is relatively cheap, but the issue might be the volumes needed to cover regulars and not just special forces on an "as needed" basis. Ukraine's light infantry may depend on this technology. One part of maneuver warfare it to make something important in the enemy's arsenal irrelevant. Turning infantry into ghosts is cool. Happy Halloween to all freedom loving ghouls. 

Edited by kevinkin
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3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes, but I never heard of "Hamletization", and Google gave me wildly differing definitions..

Overdramatized indecisivness as to the unknown and risky outcome. I'd swear the verb functions in at least several languages, but perhaps oddly not in English. Anyway many military analysts and commentators were guilty of it, especially early in the war were under the spell of Mighty RuAF. They sometimes still struggle to conceptualize Ukrainian advantages in this war.

It was bound to happen- Russian rocket reportedly shot down in Moldova. It's close to the border so various reports as if it fall in neutral country.

Edited by Beleg85
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3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russia was "offended" for Sevastopol and launched next traditional Mondey missile mass-attack.

50 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles were launched from Tu-95 and Tu-160 over Caspian sea and Rostov oblast. 44 reportedly were intercepted. Around Kyiv it's claimed 7 cruise misiles shot down. 5 of them - Kyiv hydro energy plant area. Alas, we have anyway one or two hits, so northern and partially western and south-westrn districts of Kyiv now without electricity. 

Two hits in Kharkiv - most of the city wothout power. Also some power object was hit in Kaniv town, Cherkasy oblast and one in Kirovohrad oblast.

Air Force command claimed 18 missiles has shot down Air Command "Center", 12 - "South ", 9 -  "East", 5 - "West"

Зображення

 

The capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to prevent missile strikes have improved markedly compared to October 10.

Nevertheless, in the morning from the window I saw 4 or 5 explosions behind the forest 4-5 kilometers away. At the same time, windows trembled in my apartment.

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10 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Serbian mortar rounds showing up.  Serbia is in the Russian sphere, so how to those rounds get to Ukraine?

 

 

 

Serbia is one of the examples of Russian "allies" who try to gain advantage from both sides.  That is Yugoslavia's entire history, let's not forget.  Either Serbia is directly selling the shells to Ukraine or, more likely, it is selling them to someone like Poland who is then passing them along to Ukraine.

Steve

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5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russia was "offended" for Sevastopol and launched next traditional Mondey missile mass-attack.

50 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles were launched from Tu-95 and Tu-160 over Caspian sea and Rostov oblast. 44 reportedly were intercepted. Around Kyiv it's claimed 7 cruise misiles shot down. 5 of them - Kyiv hydro energy plant area. Alas, we have anyway one or two hits, so northern and partially western and south-westrn districts of Kyiv now without electricity. 

Two hits in Kharkiv - most of the city wothout power. Also some power object was hit in Kaniv town, Cherkasy oblast and one in Kirovohrad oblast.

Air Force command claimed 18 missiles has shot down Air Command "Center", 12 - "South ", 9 -  "East", 5 - "West"

Зображення

 

How many of these do they even have left ?

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11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Probably yes, but then this risks Putin saying "arms are being supplied and so we're sinking ships now".  If Turkey is still performing the inspections Russia will have to call Turkey liars.  That's a bridge Russia might not want to burn down.  Turkey has been useful to it a couple of times so far, which is less likely if Russia sank a ship that Turkey verified was empty and then blamed Turkey for lying.

Not only that but sinking and damaging Russian ships in the Black Sea should make operating the grain shipments safer. If the Russians have less navy to enforce a blockade then that's a Good Thing(tm). The Ukrainians will need to do some more damage to Russian air fields too to make things safer. Soon we could be looking at a situation where the Russians cannot maintain a blockade anymore and that would be an even better thing.

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51 minutes ago, IanL said:

Not only that but sinking and damaging Russian ships in the Black Sea should make operating the grain shipments safer. If the Russians have less navy to enforce a blockade then that's a Good Thing(tm). The Ukrainians will need to do some more damage to Russian air fields too to make things safer. Soon we could be looking at a situation where the Russians cannot maintain a blockade anymore and that would be an even better thing.

As far as I know, a significant barrier for Black Sea transit is the cost of insurance. Until the initiative, no insurance company would insure the ships attempting to break the blockade. As long as a threat to shipping exists, even if lowered by strikes on Russian assets that can target shipping, one strike by Russia would effectively end the transit as insurance companies would not be able to bet on Russia not successfully doing this again. Unless a relevant government undertakes the steps to nationalize or provide shipping otherwise to transport the grain, and begins the process of guarding the ships, Russia will probably still achieve the goal of cutting off transit by striking a ship.

The biggest issue is for Russia, daring to declare the UN and Turkey as not fair and neutral observers and taking steps to smear them despite joining the initiative in the first place and participating fine till recently. Turkey of course benefits a lot from Russia, and is reliant on Russia in many aspects, but it's leading role as a negotiation country probably helps Turkey's image internationally and I doubt disturbing that will be tolerated by Turkey.

I am reminded of the Russian withdrawal from the UN security council on the eve of the Korean War, which paved the way for the UN intervention. Foolish then, foolish now.

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11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Full video of the truck rollover and it has captions.  A really good sense of battlefield confusion and problems arising from hearing loss due to shelling.  The lack of organization and chains of command are likely seen in action during the first part of the video:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/yhvh5q/the_full_video_of_the_russians_fleeing_kherson/

ChrisO has posted some idea when and where this video happened:

Steve

"Where's the leg?!?"  Is that really what he says?

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I see some of the Russian military bloggers are taking shots at Turkey today for supporting the "Grey Wolves" group which they say they are claiming is fighting in support of Azerbaijan against Armenia as well as supporting Ukraine against Russia in a broad strategy to reassert Turkish influence.

Is this just because of Turkey's recent stance on the grain shipments?

Has anyone been following this issue more closely over time who can provide some broader context?

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46 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

3rd or 4th video of this war showing Manpads directly hitting helicopter.

😎

Extended version from unlocked account. Russian helicopter flew along neutral zone and after missile hit turned right to own territory. It fell between Spirne (UKR-controlled) and Mykolaiivka (RUS-contolled)

Russian social media shared the same video with claims this is UKR helicopter, being shot down near Kostiantynivka, but this is fake. UKR really lost Mi-8 there, but it reportedly crashed because of technical reasons. Crew allegedly survived. 

Russians claim the helicopter on the video is Mi-8 of older series, which now use only Rosgvardiya and they always have a cover of Mi-24/Ka-52. Army as if uses only newest Mi-8AMTSh and Mi-8AMTV-5 (no). But this can be a chopper of Wagner or Rosgvardiya, here the photo of UKR crashed Mi-8/17 - we can see diffrent terrain with some facility on background

Зображення

PS. Other Russian TG already confirmed this was Mi-8 of Wagner - 2 pilots dead, 1 injured 

"Due to information we have, this is board of Russian PMC.... Today we lost exellent officers, even they are already retired and do not "employing" in MoD. Fastest recovery to survived one. Ethernal flight, men

Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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Several things on military blockades of large cargo ships: they difficult to outright sink with above the water line ordinance. Their crews are tiny compared to their draft, so there is a lesser chance of casualties compared to naval ships. An effective blockade of Ukraine's cargo fleet would mean boarding them while at sea, or, more effectively damaging the facilities needed to load and upload cargo. Don't think Russian will attempt any kinetic attacks and may just rely on nervous markets driving up the cost of grain. BTW, I never knew Indonesia is the world's leading importer of grain and would love to see Putin caned everyday of his trial. 

Edited by kevinkin
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