How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

It might not be .50 BMG, it's still .50 cal.

Just for that, I am going to start calling KPVs DShKs too.

You, sir, are going to lose your Grognard Membership Card if you keep this up.

Steve

[Elmar Bijlsma]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You, sir, are going to lose your Grognard Membership Card if you keep this up.

Steve

I'll be sure to complain about that, too.

[LongLeftFlank]

Come on, our Echo Chamber is the Best Echo Chamber!

I suspect he meant bleaching, but wow, quite a segue there from nuclear Armageddon.  Mind you, Lugnutz is totally in the mainstream for political press conferences these days.

 

 

Edited October 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

18 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Properly a sweet time to add ATACMS to the play. Logistics have just adapted to HIMARS.

 

Pairing this thread with Mick Ryan's latest on the practicalities (for RU) of evacuating the Kherson bridgehead.  Great synthesis here.

We might expect the later stages of their withdrawal to be chaotic. 

Edited October 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[CAZmaj]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Destroyed YPR-765, probably a mine.  Note that this vehicle has its running gear totally stripped off and hit so hard that it nearly flipped over, yet it looks like the hull did not get breached.  I really hope either it was dismounted or that everybody was inside instead of riding on top.  Because if they were inside they probably got banged up, but survived.  Top?  Not as likely.

 

 

Yes. Thus my question from a couple of weeks ago why Ukranian infantry was riding on  the top of their APC.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

It might not be .50 BMG, it's still .50 cal.

Just for that, I am going to start calling KPVs DShKs too.

 

*edit*

From the video it looked like the fire didn't come from the breech. And the yeeting shortly afterwards of the bin increases my faith the description was correct. HOWEVER, I will concede it can be called an out of battery if the excitement happens in the bin. It's 'out of battery+'.

The next thread down has the messy edit long version of the video and the first post has a snap of the bullet ricocheting up from the tray cover.  If you can scrub slowly or stop/go click fast enough you can see that the bullet bounces up faster than the tray bounces down, so you see nothing, then bullet headed up, then tray slam and bounce back.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I suspect he meant bleaching, but wow, quite a segue there from nuclear Armageddon.  Mind you, Lugnutz is totally in the mainstream for political press conferences these days.

 

 

Wasn't everybody in America washing and re-using their TP in the spring of 2020?

[Artkin]

24 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Wasn't everybody in America washing and re-using their TP in the spring of 2020?

[LongLeftFlank]

Request:  Does anyone have any coherent and current info on Ukrainian manpower readiness and buildup? (Written sources much preferred, svp)

1.  It seems things are going all right with the volunteer army they've built up (MacGregor's fever dream of 400k casualties/100k KIA aside).  And anecdotally, volunteers have been turned away.

2. But you'd think that with 1/5 of your land still under invasion from a much larger neighbour also threatening to exterminate your people, you'd want a bit more safety margin. 

3. With a manpower pool of about 5 million men, say, half a million additional lads trained up to TD standard and ready to go, just in case?

4.  I can't imagine the UKR wartime economy is offering scads of job opps right now... be keen to hear more about that as well. So even if they're not needed on the fronts, it might seem wise to get them organised, just in case? even as 'weekend warriors'?

5.  Zelenskiyy 'canceled the fall draft' according to some recent reports, but I don't know what to make of that.  As in, replaced it with something else? or doesn't need new recruits?  Google search is drowning in the usual stuff about Russia's recruiting woes.

What gives here?

*****

....This is from July-Aug, which is about an aeon ago in this war.

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/15/1117605630/ukrainians-express-worries-over-conscription-following-russias-invasion

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/25/world/middleeast/ukraine-soldiers-recruitment-draft.html

Cheers!

 

Edited October 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Grossman]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

The thing that would really move NATO closer to Moscow is Belarus switching sides, after Lukashenko has his appointment with a lamp post of course. From eastern Belarus Moscow would be in ATACMS range. i suspect they won't like that very much.

The invasion of Ukraine may be the last act of the 30 year drama of Russia struggling with its imperial legacy.  Andrey Kortunov

https://ip-quarterly.com/en/moscows-painful-adjustment-post-soviet-space

It follows that the more military failure in Ukraine the more Russian influence falls away in its Asian Russian sphere, from Moldova to Asia, Kazakstan, Tajikistan etc. A consequence of Russian failure on Ukraine would be an attempted revolution in Belarus, although Putin has Belarus under Russian military control, and its opposition leaders are either in prison or fled abroad. 

[chuckdyke]

45 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

Yes. Thus my question from a couple of weeks ago why Ukranian infantry was riding on  the top of their APC.

Reason Australians rode on top their M113. Going from A to B in relative comfort. Compare it with a traffic light system Green when it is safe. Amber better stay inside Red must stay inside. 

Picture BY James Curreen,

[Zeleban]

21 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Запрос: Есть ли у кого-нибудь внятная и актуальная информация о готовности и наращивании украинской живой силы? (предпочтительнее письменные источники, svp)

1. Кажется, дела с добровольческой армией, которую они создали, идут хорошо (лихорадочная мечта МакГрегора о 400 тысячах жертв/100 тысяч убитых в стороне). И, как ни странно, добровольцам отказали.

2. Но вы могли бы подумать, что, поскольку 1/5 вашей земли все еще находится под вторжением со стороны гораздо более крупного соседа, который также угрожает истребить ваш народ, вам нужно немного больше запаса прочности. 

3. С численностью около 5 миллионов человек, скажем, полмиллиона дополнительных парней, обученных по стандарту TD и готовых к работе, на всякий случай?

4. Я не могу себе представить, чтобы экономическая ситуация UKR во время войны предлагала множество предложений о работе прямо сейчас... и об этом тоже хотелось бы услышать больше. Так что, даже если они не нужны на фронте, может показаться разумным организовать их на всякий случай? даже как «воины выходного дня»?

5. Согласно некоторым последним сообщениям , Зеленский «отменил осенний призыв», но я не знаю, что с этим делать. То есть заменить на что-то другое? или не нужны новобранцы? Поиск Google тонет в обычных вещах о проблемах с вербовкой в России.

Что здесь дает?

*****

.... Это с июля по август, то есть эон назад в этой войне.

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/15/1117605630/ukrainians-express-worries-over-conscription-following-russias-invasion

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/25/world/middleeast/ukraine-soldiers-recruitment-draft.html

Ваше здоровье!

There are no written sources on this topic, I think because this is classified information. But as far as I know, the main problem in creating a 5 million army is the lack of the required amount of equipment and equipment. But I think that in the event of a critical situation at the front, the announcement of general mobilization and the formation of a post and low-quality but large army is quite appropriate

[LongLeftFlank]

38 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

There are no written sources on this topic, I think because this is classified information. But as far as I know, the main problem in creating a 5 million army is the lack of the required amount of equipment and equipment. But I think that in the event of a critical situation at the front, the announcement of general mobilization and the formation of a post and low-quality but large army is quite appropriate

Many thanks. 

OPSEC is all very well and good, but you'd think they would make SOME kind of high level 'we must gird our loins' statement to the populace.  5 million under arms is of course well beyond what would be needed here.  I'm thinking more like 1/10th that number.

****

https://jamestown.org/program/lessons-of-the-ukraine-war-thus-far/

This piece from late Sept is interesting, although like most think tank pieces it's very handwavy high level and doesn't give specific answers as to what they're doing NOW:

The idea of a peacetime small contract army was quite popular in Ukraine before 2022... Developments since the February 24 invasion have made clear that the peacetime strength of 215,000 troops in the Ukrainian Armed Forces was not enough...

In 2021, reform of the territorial defense forces (TDFs) was quite popular. This was done through institutionalization of a separate command chain responsible directly to the commander in chief, with each region having its own brigade [but] deployment of TDFs was [only] completed during the actual fighting. In the end, TDFs enabled the addition of approximately 200,000 troops to regular formations quickly.

Currently, Ukraine has a government-estimated 1 million men and women under arms that include the defense and security sectors....

Ukraine needs an enlarged peacetime contract army numbering approximately 300,000 to 350,000 men...it is telling that Poland decided to increase the strength of its armed forces from 143,000 to 300,000 in the next five years.

An increased number of regular contract troops demands an overhaul of the Ukrainian army’s command structure. One possible variant might be the creation of an intermediate level of command similar to the use of military districts during peacetime.

****

https://harpers.org/archive/2022/07/searching-from-the-ukrainian-foreign-legion/

I also ran across this long form colour piece from July, relating the misadventures of the many Western volunteers who showed up in Ukraine in March and April.  Hemingway stuff.

Edited October 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Panserjeger]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Request:  Does anyone have any coherent and current info on Ukrainian manpower readiness and buildup? (Written sources much preferred, svp)

Operation Interflex (the training of UA troops in UK) is ongoing. I am enrolled in the Norwegian Heimevernet (Territorial Defense) and we recently were offered to volunteer for participation in the operation. Currently the norwegian instructors are from the Rapid Response Force of Brigade North, but now they are asking for more instructors from the reserves. 

https://www.forsvaret.no/heimevernet/aktuelt/operasjon-interflex

There will be two contingents, one January-April 2023 and one April-July 2023. The norwegian instructors will get a three weeks refresher course in Norway before leaving for UK, but there are of course requirements that they posses the required qualifications.

The UA troops will get 5 weeks of intensive training. No details about how many troops are to be trained, but 10.000 were trained in the initial phase of 120 days. Hopefully a lot more can be trained now that the number of instructors will increase.

Edit: There are rumours of gross salaries of 120k NOK a month (11.4k USD), so the pay is really good. But there will be work around the clock with very little leave.

Edited October 23, 2022 by Panserjeger

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Panserjeger said:

Operation Interflex (the training of UA troops in UK) is ongoing. I am enrolled in the Norwegian Heimevernet (Territorial Defense) and we recently were offered to volunteer for participation in the operation. Currently the norwegian instructors are from the Rapid Response Force of Brigade North, but now they are asking for more instructors from the reserves. 

https://www.forsvaret.no/heimevernet/aktuelt/operasjon-interflex

There will be two contingents, one January-April 2023 and one April-July 2023. The norwegian instructors will get a three weeks refresher course in Norway before leaving for UK, but there are of course requirements that they posses the required qualifications.

The UA troops will get 5 weeks of intensive training. No details about how many troops are to be trained, but 10.000 were trained in the initial phase of 120 days. Hopefully a lot more can be trained now that the number of instructors will increase.

Edit: There are rumours of gross salaries of 120k NOK a month (11.4k USD), so the pay is really good. But there will be work around the clock with very little leave.

Good info, thanks, and there are similar reports from as far away as Portugal (Croatia just declined to participate, while stating support).  Probably sums to well over 25,000 all-in although don't hold me to that.

... But it seems like the overseas programmes are more for 'upskilling' the existing 1 million force (those who aren't at the front now).  That would seem to make more sense in terms of impact and force integrity.

I'd think they'd have the new recruits do their basic in Ukraine; giving newbs the advanced training they'd get in the West seems suboptimal. 

Otherwise, integrating a cadre with state of the art Western training but NO combat experience with seasoned combat veterans who know only the old system seems... problematic.  But I have no personal experience with any of this.  Just seems like Ukraine would want to have another 250 - 500k guys (and gals) who at least know how to handle a rifle on tap in the event they might be needed (and I don't mean poor old guys like the Russians are pulling in -- that's a desperation move).

Edited October 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[kevinkin]

Maybe discussed already:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/military-think-tank-russia-withdraws-officers-from-kherson/ar-AA13hcKr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ea74359c9e2d4fd180849991faff16fc

Lets see what happens short term, the mention of defensive lines being built by Russia in places across the country side is more long term if this report is accurate. 

 

 

[akd]

POV: getting hit and ejecting at low altitude.

 

Edited October 23, 2022 by akd

[Zeleban]

 

Crashes of Russian military planes have become more frequent

[kraze]

"Comrade Ivanov today your task is to bomb civilians in..."

"Say no more."

[Zeleban]

 

[cyrano01]

8 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Come on, our Echo Chamber is the Best Echo Chamber!

I suspect he meant bleaching, but wow, quite a segue there from nuclear Armageddon.  Mind you, Lugnutz is totally in the mainstream for political press conferences these days.

 

Just a reminder that amateurs talk tactics and professionals talk logs...or something like that.

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Crashes of Russian military planes have become more frequent

For those, who havn't own twitter account and can't see a video - Russian Su-30 crashed in Irkutsk. It has fell on two-storey building, but without losses among civilias. Both pilots are dead. The jet belonged to Irkutsk aircraft plant and reportedly was under test flight.

 

Edited October 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

Very telling...

 

 

[Haiduk]

This account also belongs to UKR serviceman:

Bakhmut. We recaptured Artwinery [he meant obviously "Artway" winery] !!! I have a hope that champagne survived. Our guys are handsome!!!! The whole hill in [bodies] of mobiks and "musiciants" [wagnerites]

Edited October 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

I don't remember if this article from the New Yorker has been discussed here yet, but it's a good one:

Inside the U.S. Effort to Arm Ukraine